Brian Graves Guaranteed Selections
Niagara -5.5 over St. Peter's
Niagara is a pretty solid team that comes off an embarrassing loss at Siena and I expect them to bounce back tonight. The Purple Eagles have too much firepower for this St. Peter's team that often struggles to score. The Big Guns like Benn and Lewis should have fun taking the ball to the basket and launching 3's, but they may score as many points from the foul line as they will anywhere else. This game could get ugly as Niagara wins 78-59!
The Duke's Sports
Villanova Under (154') for 2 Units
This series has gone "under" four straight with the combined scoring not exceeding 152, which was back in 2006. Both of these coaches are strong believers in defense and there shouldn't be too many fundamental breakdowns from either team at this stage of the season therefore, we don't expect to see too many transition buckets. Pitino is going with a smaller lineup here to matchup better with the smalls of the Wildcats. Villanova is 6-13-1 O/U as a road dog of 1/2 to 6' while L'ville is 2-7 O/U on Mondays and 1-4 O/U as a home favorite in this price range. With little turnover time form Saturday, in which both teams played, we'll look for a more physical Big East battle than finesse tonight.
KING CREOLE
4* BUCKS / SUNS OVER
A look at the historical tendencies of this Milwaukee / Phoenix series gives us a great jumping-off point. In the last 11 meetings between these two teams, the 'OVER' has gone an almost-PERFECT 10-1! That includes 6-0 O/U when playing IN Phoenix. Average OU line in this series is: 211.9.... which just about happens to be tonight's OU Line. Average Total Points scored in this series is: 224.2 overall.... and a whopping 231.4 IN Phoenix. So we're getting anywhere from +12 to +19 points in OU line value based on the series history scoring tendencies.
Milwaukee played last night, and lost to the LA Lakers 95-77. Don't worry about he low point total for the Bucks. NBA teams tend to cut loose after a low-scoring outcome.... as of late.
7-0 O/U last 3 weeks: All NBA teams who scored LESS than (<) 80 points in their last game (BUCKS).
Phoenix played last on Friday night, and lost at home to the Miami Heat by a score of 109 to 105. We'll first take a look at the Rest Situation in this game. The Host plays with 2 days rest... while the visitor played last night.
24-9 O/U this season: All HOME teams in a 2/0 rest situation (SUNS). When the OU line is 214 < points, the results have been a very impressive 19-2 O/U. And since December 1st, home FAVS of 10 points playing with NO Rest (BUCKS).... and a PERFECT 8-0 O/U when playing off a SU loss.
Milwaukee's 'margin of defeat' in last night's game was also queried in our NBA Database.
7-0 O/U last 4 weeks: All NBA road dogs playing off a SU loss of 18 or more points (BUCKS).
I also ran a query based on yesterday's opponent for the Bucks (Lakers).
5-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA road dogs of 14 201 points (BUCKS).
On the Phoenix side, I went into the database and checked up on 2009/2010 results for teams off a fairly big home FAVORITE loss (Suns laid -6 points in that Friday home loss to the Heat).
8-1 O/U since Dec. 1st: All NBA home teams playing off a SU home loss in which they were a FAVORITE of - 6 > points (SUNS).
In the ENTIRE 09/10 season, substantial favorites of > 8 points have gone a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in this situation.
We'll wrap up our Best bet with a look at each team's W/L record on the year.
26-11 O/U since Dec. 1st: All home teams with a W/L percentage of >.600 (SUNS)... versus an opponent with a W/L percentage of < .450 (BUCKS). Favorites of 12 < points have gone 18-5 O/U..... and 10-2 O/U in NON-conference games.
3* NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
WRONG team favored! Speedee played against the Sixers on Friday night, in their home game against the Toronto Raptors. That one was a win... and we'll play AGAINST the Sixers again on Monday night. This is a series that has been dominated by the Hornets. New Orleans is a PERFECT 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings over the last two seasons. They've won each of those 4 games by an average of 15 points-per-game... and the average ATS margin has been +12 PPG.
New Orleans comes into Monday night's game with TONS of confidence. They're one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Their most recent victory was an OUTRIGHT dog win against the Washington Wizards yesterday. Meanwhile. the Sixers went into the Motor City on Saturday night, and upset the Detroit Pistons. Just about every applicable System has us squarely on the DOG tonight.
5-0 ATS this season: All NBA underdogs with NO REST (Hornets) vs any opponent off a SU dog win (Sixers).
15-3 ATS this season: All non-division dogs playing off a DOG win (Hornets),,, vs an opponent also off a DOG win (Sixers).
18-9 ATS this season: All road dogs playing of a SU win (Hornets)... vs a < .400 favored opponent (Sixers). If that host is off a SU win (like Philly), the numbers improve to 10-2 ATS fpr our road team.
11-2 ATS: All NBA underdogs playing off 6 or more SU wins in a row (Hornets)... vs an opponent off a SU win (Sixers).
6-0 ATS last 2 years: All NBA road teams playing off a SU road dog win vs the Washington Wizards (Hornets).
0-8 ATS Since 2003: All NBA teams with a current W/L percentage of .334 or less playing off a SU road dog win against the Detroit Pistons (Sixers).
Bryan Leonard
Monday NBA Heavy Hitter
Miami at Utah
Despite the fact that over the years Utah has had the slightly better squads, the Heat have completely dominated this series. Miami is an amazing 11-1 straight up in this series, winning 4 of the last 5 in Utah by pointspread margins of 8, 17, 3 and 17 points. The only straight up loss was a pointspread cover. Needless to say Dwayne Wade has been sensational and we expect more of the same tonight from Wade and his teammates. Utah is off a huge 18 point road win at Dallas and we expect this to be a letdown spot. Playing an Eastern Conference squad after taking care of a strong conference rival. Despite the victory the Jazz have dropped 4 of their last 6 games and have played five straight opponents fighting for playoff seeding. That includes two games against an up and coming Memphis squad that is peaking right now. So we find a tired favorite who has fought tooth and nail the last week taking on a team they simply do not match up well against. And they do so not only having to win but winning by a margin. We don't see that happening as the Heat shake off the poor performance against the Clippers and take this one to the wire.
PLAY MIAMI
Jason Johnson
Villanova at Louisville
Pick: Villanova +3
Villanova gets my money tonight for one simple reason; their shooting. The Wildcats shoot better than Louisville from the field, the arc, and the stripe. By the numbers, they rebound just as well and play better defense too.Solid guard play will keep Villanova in every game so anytime they're catching a few points, count me in.This game is decided by a last second bucket.
MATT FARGO
10* BIG MONDAY “ENFORCER” *81% ANGLES*
Based on recent results, this game provides outstanding value. Oklahoma is having a tough time this season with a 9-6 record overall, although a lot of teams would take that record in a second. The Sooners had their conference opener on Saturday at Baylor and to say it was an embarrassment is an understatement. Oklahoma lost by 31 points in Waco as it was dominated in every phase possible. Obviously the question is can the Sooners recover in just two days and because of the venue change and the meaning of this game, that answer is a resounding yes. Oklahoma St. has its Big XII opener and that came at home against Texas Tech where it won by 29 points. As you can see, the game one results are the complete opposite on both sides and that is what is driving this line. Oklahoma is 7-0 this season and 1-3 on the road while the Cowboys are 9-0 at home and 1-1 on the road. Not counting neutral court games, the host is 20-2 this season in games involving these two teams and this number is not reflecting that at all. Oklahoma has not had the toughest home slate but wins over Arizona and Arkansas by 17 and 20 points respectively are still rather impressive. The Cowboys were destroyed by Tulsa in the one road loss while the victory came at a pretty weak Stanford team by just a point. Let’s not forget this is a big time rivalry game as this marks the 216th meeting between these two teams. That said, any recent results can be tossed out the window and that includes the Sooners last three losses that have all been by double-digits. As mentioned, those losses all came away from home and the Sooners bring in a solid 27-1 run at the Lloyd Noble Center. The coaches have some interesting angles as Cowboys head coach Travis Ford is 0-7 ATS in the last seven road games after two straight wins by 15 or more points while Oklahoma head coach Jeff Capel is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. 10* Oklahoma Sooners
9* NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *23-8 DHD RUN*
After Boston swept the season series against Atlanta last season, the Hawks are trying to return the favor. They have won both matchups this season and go for the third straight tonight in Boston. Atlanta defeated the Celtics in the most recent meeting just this past Friday at home but it is coming off a dud on Saturday as the Hawks went to Orlando and were blasted by 32 points. That dropped the Hawks to 9-9 on the road which is still very respectable as they are one of only nine teams in the entire NBA that has a .500 or better record on the road. Boston rebounded from that loss in Atlanta by defeating the Raptors in Toronto yesterday and it was yet another win against an average team. The Celtics have played a pretty light schedule this season and they have won the games they are supposed to as they are 23-4 against teams ranked outside the top ten. They are just 3-5 against the top ten and as mentioned, that includes a 0-2 record against the Hawks. Boston is only 1-3 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and with only four games coming against good teams, the 11-4 record at home makes more sense. The Hawks meanwhile are 8-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Atlanta falls into a solid situation based on its most recent performance. Play on road teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. It basically states that good teams are able to rebound off a poor performance and we will see it again here. 9* Atlanta Hawks
James Patrick Sports
Heat vs. Jazz
Utah HC Jerry Sloan kept his team intact from a year ago and they'll get a crack at their payback to the Miami Heat as they attempt to abstract some revenge for a (80-70) loss in South Beach in a game that the Jazz couldn't play any "String Music" going (2) for (11) from (3) point land. Miami played at Los Angeles last night and when NBA teams come into Salt Lake City for the second of Back-to-back games - its the Jazz that usually gets the "W". We'll grab the Utah Jazz at home against their fatigued opponent. 5* Pot of Gold Utah Jazz
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners were taken behind the Tool Shed by Baylor as the Bears took out some built up frustrations dating back over (30+) consecutive losses but HC Jeff Capel's Sooners are (25-6) straight-up on their home court in Norman and they were eliminated from the Big XII Conference Tournament a year ago by their rival Cowboys Team in the first round. This team did lose the #1 Draft Pick to the NBA from a year ago but they do have one of the premier backcourt's in the nation in Warren & Crocker. Least we forget the "Man in the Middle", Keith "Tiny" Gallon, who should be a factor here considering OSU losses of Byron Eaton & Terrel Harris. Home underdogs in rivalry games always seem to play above the rim, the ESPN cameras won't hurt either. 3* Oklahoma Sooners
Louisiana Tech vs. Boise State
This series has seen the home team cash winning tickets at a (6-2) ATS rate and the Broncos are off a home loss and when they are installed as home underdogs, Boise State is a solid (7-3) ATS. Our Monday NCAA College Basketball complimentary selection is Boise State Broncos.
Red Dog Sports
4* NHL Total of The Week
Colorado vs. Calgary
Play: Under 5.5
Look for a game that ends 3-2 on Monday night. Play under 5.5 between these two.
Jorge Gonzalez
11-0 100% ESPN Prime Time Winner!
10* Oklahoma State Pick
The Oklahoma Sooners (9-6) are having growing pains with the Griffin brothers on the roster. Teams are eager to get some revenge against the Sooners now that they aren't one of the top teams in the conference. The Sooners are coming off a 91-60 beat-down at the hands of the Baylor Bears. The Sooners were dominated in the paint and will have trouble keeping up. The Oklahoma State Cowboys (13-2) are quietly one of the best teams in the country and are coming off a 85-52 trouncing of nationally ranked Texas Tech. The Cowboys have a stingy defense that allows just 61.9 points per game on just 39% shooting. The visitor is 5-0 ATS and the Sooners are 0-6 games against teams that are 60% or better on the season. Take the Cowboys.
RAS
San Jose St. +8.5
UNC Greensboro Over
La Tech Under
Hawaii Under
Kikki Sports
2* Lock GOM - N. Orleans Hornets
Executive
250 Oklahoma St
Street Rosenthal
*200 Miami Heat +7.5
*200 Indiana Pacers -2
*200 New Orleans Hornets +1.5
*200 Milwaukee Bucks +9.5
*300 Boston Celtics -4
Trey Scott
*200 St. Peters +5
*200 Louisville -3.5