DAVE MALINSKY
4* PORTLAND over WASHINGTON
There is not an NBA team more ill-suited to play well on today’s matinee board than the Wizards. Not only is there the continued disarray for a 13-26 team having to deal with the loss of owner Abe Pollin, the Gilbert Arenas issues, and the fact that there is a Wednesday deadline for a proposed sale of the franchise, but they are now forced to play for the fifth time in seven days, a span which also includes a double-overtime affair at Chicago on Friday night. Not only does it mean physical fatigue, but to try to alleviate some of that they did not practice on Sunday. That means a lack of preparation that is even more important when facing a Western Conference opponent, one that they have not played since a 100-87 loss in Portland on January 24th of LY.The physical issues start at the very top, that Antawn Jamison/Caron Butler tandem that has to carry the load. In the first four games of this cycle Jamison has had to play an exhausting 186 minutes, while for Butler it has been 176. This early tipoff will bring tired legs from both (from Jamison, after Saturday’s win over Sacramento - "Oh man, I'm going to be in a coma. It's tough, but you've got to push through it."), and when they are not on top of their individual games Flip Saunders has no other viable options.Portland has shown a remarkable resiliency this season, a tribute to the kind of team chemistry and work ethic that Washington lacks. Despite playing through so many injuries the Trail Blazers enter this game on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run, and in that span they won and covered the two games without Brandon Roy by a combined 36.5 ATS. Roy was only able to go for about 30 minutes in practice on Sunday and may not be a major factor here but the line adjustment more than allows for us to play in this range. They have executed with poise and precision all season on the road, with seven victories over teams that are at .500 or better and a tough O.T. loss at Atlanta. Having been off since Friday, and playing for just the third time in eight days, they bring the energy to gradually pull away in this one.
4* CHARLOTTE/SACRAMENTO Under
If the season ended today Charlotte would be a playoff team, and the Bobcats are in fact only one game out from being as high as a #5 seed. It has almost all been about defense, with a solid #3 in the NBA on our best set of ratings, and correspondingly Larry Brown has them playing at the kind of pace (#27) that makes that defense a focal point most games. Against a weak opponent that they can control, it is the defense and pace that come front and center, and that is what we have today.The Kings are not good enough to take the Bobcats out of their preferred game flow, and since Kevin Martin returned it has been a flat-out disaster offensively on this road trip, managing just 86 points each at Philadelphia (#23 defensively) and Washington (#21). Not surprisingly, those games played Under the Total by a combined 42 points. Because Martin was injured so early in the season (he had not played since November 4th), there never was time for him to develop a rhythm with Tyreke Evans and the other new faces, and when they opened the campaign with three straight road games they only managed 89, 92 and 94. Now it is like starting all over again, and with a Sunday practice being skipped to try to create fresh legs for this early start, there is no reason to believe that anything special is on the way here – if they could not find their way against two of the weakest defenses in the league, they can have some truly ugly stretches against one of the best.Look for Charlotte to focus even more on a slow pace here, forcing Sacramento to make those struggling half-court sets go, and for this to turn into an ugly and plodding grinder of a game
4* SAINT JOSEPH’S over TOWSON STATE
Even in a down season for the program we can count on a Phil Martelli team going hard in every game, particularly in front of the home fans. That makes this a prime spot for the Hawks to get on back on track as they step way down in class against a team that they can dominate, especially since that opponent may be bringing precious little enthusiasm to the table.Towson State is a rudderless ship, with the Tigers on their way to the 6th straight losing season under Pat Kennedy (at 4-12 they will clinch that soon). But for as little as they bring most nights this one could get very ugly – they are playing their 7th game in 17 days, having to travel after a rare conference road win at Delaware on Saturday, and they are right back in C.A.A. play at home vs. Northeastern on Wednesday night. This is the usual rag tag assortment that we have grown accustomed to seeing under Kennedy, with Calvin Lee the only Towson player to start every game, and this is exactly the kind of group that can mail in a non-conference game after getting a rare league road win.The class difference between the programs showed when Saint Joseph’s rolled by 21 on the road LY, and while the W/L records are close this time around note how deceptive that is because of the major gap in scheduling (#10 vs. #233 Sagarin and #13 vs. #226 Pomeroy). This is the kind of matchup that the SR back-court of Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson can control (they combined for 30 points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists in LY’s win), and with those two shooting a combined 77.0 percent at the free throw line, the ball will be in the right hands to extend the margin in the latter stages.
THE BOOOOJ
15 Units Notre Dame (+3) over Syracuse
MARC LAWRENCE
Phoenix +2 vs Memphis
The Suns meet the Grizzles in Memphis with revenge on their minds from a 128-103 home loss suffered 16 days ago in Phoenix. It sets the table for today's play as the Suns enter off three losses in a row knowing they are 41-18 SU and 37-17-2 ATS in this role, including 10-0-1 ATS as a dog versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Phoenix is 46-13 SU in this series, including 4-0-1 ATS when taking points. They are also 4-0 ATS on this floor in games off a loss when Memphis is off a win. Toss in the Suns' Sterling 27-11 ATS mark on the road in games off a loss of 20 or more points and we'll gladly grab the points with the better team here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.
Kansas St. +1 vs Texas
After escaping in a 72-67 overtime home win against Texas A&M Saturday, the 17-0 No. 1-ranked Longhorns won’t find the going any easier in Manhattan today. That's because Bramlage Coliseum has become a house of horrors for visiting teams. It's where KSU is currently riding a 14-game home winning streak (10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS this season) and has compiled a 68-12 SU mark since 2005. K-State also owes Texas for a bitter 3-point loss in the opening round of last year’s Big 12 Tournament – a setback that forced the Cats to settle for an NIT bid. In addition, the Cats have cashed in six of their last seven tries when playing with conference tourney revenge. The hosts also own an impressive 7-1-1 ATS series edge, including last year’s outright win at Austin as 10-point underdogs. With Big 12 home teams on an incredible 117-7 SU run this season, and Kansas State an eye-opening 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS at home as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points against undefeated opposition since 1990, look for another No.1 to bite the dust here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Kansas State.
Pitbull
20 units Grizzlies ML -135
20 units Houston -6.5
15 units Minnesota Under 206
10 units Charlotte -6.5
10 units Lakers -6
20 units K-St ML -125
10 units K-St -1.5
BEN BURNS
10* Spurs/Hornets Under
Anthony Redd
30 Dime Rider
KELSO
15 Units LA Clippers -8 v. Nets
5 Units Mavs +5 @ Celts
5 Units K State -1.5 v. Texas
3 Units Towson +7.5 @ St Joesephs
Street Rosenthal
*300 New Jersey Nets +8
*200 Philadelphia 76ers -2
*200 Orlando Magic +6
Trey Scott
*300 Notre Dame +3
*500 Kansas State -1
Wunderdog
3 Units Sabers/Coyotes Over 5
5 Units Lightning +1.5 -270
4 Units Lightning +110
4 Units Senators +130
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - Kansas St -1.5
Vegas Legend - Middle Tennessee St +2
HUNTER PRICE
Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Lakers
Take: Over 197½
The last time these 2 teams met was back at the conclusion of the NBA Finals with the Lakers taking home the title. This time around I look for max effort from both sides. That being said, I believe this will turn into a shootout more so than a defensive effort. Reason being is that the Magic are going to be hard pressed to try and assert their position as a title contender this year and to do such a thing they are going to have to run and gun. The Lakers on the other hand will like an opportunity to show the league that they are still the top dog. That being said they do have mental lapses frequently which could lead to giving up plenty of points to the Magic in the first half. This philosophy is supported by the fact the over is 7-3 in Lakers last 10 games as a favorite. Let’s just sit back enjoy a great game and look for both teams to break the century mark with ease.
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
SUN BELT CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Western Kentucky -2
CT Sports Picks Guaranteed Selections
Syracuse -4
The Orange are the best team in the best conference and they will prove it tonight. Johnson is a great defender and is so hard to guard on offense with his length. The 2-3 zone of the Orange should take away Harangody and really make the Irish get scoring from areas they are not used to. On the other end ND is not a very good defensive or rebounding team which will spell big trouble with the very big Orange lineup. This one will not be close.
Ron Raymond
5* Bulls / Warriors Under 215.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Sabres/Coyotes UNDER 5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value "under" in this situation:
The Sabres (29-11-6) narrowly missed the playoffs the last two seasons, but with a 10-point lead atop the Northeast Division, they are in excellent position to end that drought.
They have been especially sharp lately, going 7-0-3 since Christmas and 17-4-4 since Thanksgiving with Ryan Miller leading the way. The likely starter for the United States at the Vancouver Olympics ranks second in the NHL with a career-best 2.01 goals-against average.
Miller made 36 saves to help Buffalo earn a point in a 3-2 shootout road loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday night.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of Buffalo's six overall and in five of its last seven on the road.
On the other side of the rink: Miller is 2-0-0 with a 0.50 GAA in two career starts against the Coyotes, making 23 saves in a 2-1 home win Oct. 8 after stopping 28 shots in a 2-0 victory in his only visit to Glendale on Jan. 31.
Ilya Bryzgalov, who still ranks among the NHL’s top five in wins and is three shy of matching his career high, struggled in making 18 saves against Minnesota on Saturday night, but his teammates helped him out in a 6-4 win.
Keep in mind though, Phoenix has seen the total go "under" the posted number in a whopping 10 of 11 games this year after a win by 2 goals or more.
Bottom line: Five out of the last six times these teams have tangled at the Jobing.com Arena, the total has gone "under" the posted number.
I think when you take into account all of the above factors, that the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
*7* UNDER.