David Malinsky
4* NEW YORK/WASHINGTON UNDER 210
We see the markets as being a bit “stale” for this one, not recognizing the current realities or the personnel situations at hand. And that means excellent value.
New York is slowing down. With the major minutes taking a toll on Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton the Knicks are on a 7-2 run to the Under over their last nine games, and note that in six of them they finished at least 15 full points below the Total. It will not be easy to break out of that tonight, with only Sunday off after that tough road trip through Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, when the offense could averaging just 93 points per game.
Meanwhile Washington is on a 5-1 run to the Under, three of them by 12 points or more, and it could easily be a 6-0 – that Over vs. Utah four games back requires an asterisk, when an 81 at halftime exploded as the Jazz went into an all-out scramble in the latter stages, knocking down 14-27 triples and send the Wizards to the line often. For Washington it has been about slowing the pace and putting more focus on the defensive end, and that becomes even more important tonight, with the absence of Kirk Hinrich leaving only Mustafa Shakur, just called up from the “D” League, as a back-up at PG behind John Wall. It has Flip Saunders playing with a short deck, and with a home game on deck vs. Denver tomorrow night he has to be even more focused on managing the tempo (only two reserves played more than 10:00 in Saturday’s win over Boston).
The first two meetings between these teams played to an average of 199.5, with Hinrich available both times, and the Wizards also getting a 20-point outburst from the now-departed Gilbert Arenas in one of them. They should have a tough time getting back to that level in this setting, much less the high Total that has been set.
Joseph D'Amico
Memphis vs. Toronto
Play: Memphis -4½
Memphis has won and covered 4 in a row over Toronto, including a 96-85 victory in their only meeting this season. Toronto is riding a 6 game skid, failing to cover 3, including their L2. The Raptors are just 8-12 ATS at home this year. Center Andrea Bargnani is leading the team in scoring despite very inconsistent play. Toronto is “banged up.” As of print today, Barbosa and Evans are out. Weems is doubtful. And Kleiza, Dorsey, and Calderon are all listed as questionable. Memphis is playing solid basketball. They have covered their L3 road quests. The Grizzlies starting 5 are all averaging DDs, led by Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph (combined 40.6 PPG and 19.1 RPG). Memphis is 8-2 ATS their L10 games played in Toronto, 12-4 ATS their L16 road games, and 20-7 ATS their L27 overall. Toronto is 2-7 ATS their L9 games played on 1 days rest and 1-5 ATS their L6 at home. Take the Grizzlies.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans
Pick: Oklahoma City +4.5
OKC is a very dangerous team. Kevin Durant is a monster. If he played in a media city like NY or LA, he would be on the front page every day. The Forward is averaging 28.3 PPG. The Thunder have won and covered 4 in a row over the Hornets, including both meetings this season. Russell Westbrook has outplayed his counterpart Chris Paul both times they met this year. There is no reason why this turnout should be any different. Take OKC.
EZ Winners
2* Houston Rockets
Teddy Covers
Grizzles
Kings
Warriors
Donnie Black
20* Hofstra Pk
Crown City Sports
3* Boston Bruins -101
Power Play Wins
76ers -4
DON WALLACE SPORTS
3* MEMPHIS -4
3* WASHINGTON +8
3* GOLDEN ST. +5.5
Tom Freese
10* Spurs -5.5
10* VCU -10
Brandon Lang
Orlando Magic -12
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Phoenix +3.5
Jeff Benton
25 Dime Pittsburgh
It might seem odd to be going against a 10-point underdog that’s 16-4 and ranked 16th in the country … until you look at what that 16-4 team has done in its three true road games this season. Check out Notre Dame’s road woes:
70-58 loss at Syracuse (as an eight-point underdog)
79-57 loss at Marquette (as a 3½-point underdog)
72-54 loss at St. John’s (as a three-point underdog)
To fully underatand Notre Dame’s home-road splits, consider that the Irish are averaging 72.6 ppg in five Big East home games (winning all five while going 4-1 ATS), but just 56.3 ppg in the three road losses. Also, while the Irish beat St. John’s (76-61) and Marquette (80-75) at home, they lost to both those squads on the highway by margins of 18 and 22 points.
Notre Dame’s overall stats: 75.4 ppg, 45.2 percent shooting overall, 36.9 percent on three-pointers, 73.2 percent from the free-throw line. Notre Dame’s road stats: 56.3 ppg, 41.1 percent shooting overall, 25 percent on three-pointers, 64.3 percent from three-point land.
Carrying the home-road dichotomy over to this rivalry, note that Notre Dame beat the Panthers twice last season, winning 68-53 as a one-point home underdog and 50-45 as a two-point ‘dog in the confelrence tournament … but when they went to Pitt last year, they lost 93-80 as an 11½-point underdog. In fact, the home team has won the last four regular-season meetings, and going back to the 2003-04 season, Pitt is 6-2 against Notre Dame in regular-season play (4-0 at home).
Pitt comes into this contest at 19-1, having won its last nine in a row. In their last four games, the Panthers have posted convincing wins – and spread-covers – over Georgetown (72-57 on the road), Seton Hall (74-53 at home), Syracuse (74-66 at home) and DePaul (80-50 on the road, the team’s most decisive Big East road win ever).
At home, the Panthers are 13-0, outscoring visitors by an average of 17.8 ppg (80-62.2) and outshooting them by 48.5 to 40.1 percent margin. That includes four conference victories by an average of 13 ppg while shooting a blistering 49.6 percent from the floor.
If all that isn’t enolgh to love Pitt in this one, consider this: Pitt, which beat Syracuse last Monday and covered the spread, is now 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 “Big Monday” games. The Irish are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 on Monday.
Bottom line: Yes, we’re laying a bit of an inflated number. But nothing I’ve seen from Notre Dame on the road this year tells me the Irish will be able to hang with what just might be the best team in the country (a team, by the way, that’s 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when laying between 7 and 12½ points at home).
Ben Burns
10* Toronto
10* Washington
10* Northeastern
8* Cleveland/ New Jersey Over 188
7* Calgary
Chris Jordan
100♦ Hofstra
100♦ Georgia State
100♦ VCU
Mike Lineback
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Under
San Antonio Over