Rex Rodgers
3* Calgary Flames -160
3* Vancouver Canucks -145
Tony Taylor
3* Syracuse Orange -5.5
Jim Feist
20* NBA Hi-Roller Total
Magic/Grizzlies Over
DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN ANTONIO/CHICAGO Under
We lost a play on the Spurs Under on Friday night in what has been an excellent long-term situation for Gregg Popovich, and even with that failure the numbers in this category are significant – his Spurs have played to a 51-24-2 Under count the last six seasons the game after allowing at least 100 points in regulation. Now it has been back-to-back home games in which the defense has allowed the opposition to reach the century mark, and while the markets are adjusting the Totals higher because of those results, we believe that the focus and intensity level for San Antonio becomes even tighter, especially with two full days to prepare for this game. So we put the long-term pattern back into play again.Popovich knows as well as any coach what it takes to still be playing in June, and that is why the focus has always been to quickly clean up defensive lapses in the past. And his comments this weekend follow along that path - “Persistence. That's your only choice. You keep on pushing. You keep trying to improve. You understand what you have to improve, and you work at it.” The fact that the last two defensive failures also led to SU defeats creates an even greater sense of urgency, and with Saturday and Sunday off, and nothing up tomorrow, this game is treated like a playoff affair.Note that despite the recent problems it is not as though this has been an awful defense – they still check in at #9 in the NBA, which is a solid level, but not up to their expectations. Right above them at #8 just happens to be Chicago, which shows a marked improvement on that end of the court when Tyrus Thomas is in the rotation. With reports this morning that a couple of days of rest will put Joakim Noah back on the court it helps to tighten things up even more, and that gives us the matchups that we need to get in play here.
4* UTAH/PHOENIX Under
Suddenly the Jazz look like a Jerry Sloan team again. In eight home games since Christmas they have allowed an average of 91.1 points per game, and there has been a direct correlation between the return of Andrei Kirilenko to the starting lineup and the regaining of their defensive chemistry. The markets are far behind on appreciating those changes, and that gives us excellent value for this setting.Kirilenko adds a toughness that is needed by the Utah front-court, and that is fully acknowledged by Sloan ("No question [his size] makes a big difference. He's able to block shots and play defense. I probably should have had him [starting] all along, if I'd been smart enough.") and floor leader Deron Williams ("A.K.'s length bothers people defensively. He gives us an added shot-blocker out there to start the game, which helps."). And the fact that the defense is bringing rewards, like in the current 6-1 run, means that they remain focused on those improvements, especially in only their second game in five days, which means ample time to put a game plan together for this opponent. And Sloan already knows that the best way to beat Phoenix is to slow the game down – they played to counts of 206 and 180 in regulation on this court LY.The Suns love to run but are not adept at forcing pace vs. superior opponents, especially without Leandro Barbosa – note that they are 11-5 to the Under when he does not play. And while they are certainly nothing special defensively, the one tool that Alvin Gentry has used is a zone that can be effective here, since Utah’s offense needs penetration in order to make up for the lack of spot-up shooters on the wings. That further helps to reduce the pace tonight, and brings us something much less than the track meet that the oddsmakers are projecting.
4* DENVER/CHARLOTTE Under
The markets have some key adjustments to make here, and we believe they came up far short. To lose either Carmelo Anthony or J. R. Smith is significant to the Nuggets in terms of the pace that they play at. But to lose both requires multiplication, and not addition, in factoring the numbers properly. Now the offensive efficiency and pace both all off in a major way, with heavy minutes having to go to Joey Graham and Anthony Carter, who do not bring anywhere near the same level of offensive talent (and the fact that neither played a single minute in Saturday’s O.T. win over New Orleans shows where they really belong in the rotation). Instead of the second unit bringing energy and pace off of the bench, it becomes a stodgy group that will have to rely more on defense and moving the basketball than racing up and down the court. That is further magnified by tonight’s opponent.Charlotte has now moved all the way up to #1 on our best set of defensive ratings, and the fact that the defense is directly correlating into scoreboard wins makes it easier for the Bobcats to buy into Larry Brown’s tactics. The more you rely on defense, the more you also play deliberately on offense to increase the impact of that defense on the game – Charlotte is 27th in the league in pace. With two of the most explosive Nugget scorers sidelined they will put extra emphasis on making this a half-court affair, turning this into a grinder without much tempo at all, and with a lot of long possessions that end up with low percentage shots
Brandon Lang
15 DIME - MIAMI HEAT - Great spot for the Heat to step up and deliver.
Cavs have been winning, but they have been winning ugly.
They had no right covering against the Lakers, and were very fortunate to beat the Thunder at home 2 days later.
Further examination will show the Cavs are doing just enough to get by their last 10 games.
On the outside you will see 4 straight wins and 7 of their last 10 but just 3-6-1 ATS.
Lost at home to Charlotte, blew out the gun toting Wizards before heading west.
All told they went 3-2 but just 1-3-1 ATS and only one game was impressive.
A 2-point loss at Denver, 12 point win at Portland, 3 point win at Golden State, 1 point loss at Utah and a 1 point win at the Clippers.
They return home for a sluggish win no cover versus the Raptors, a miracle cover versus the Lakers courtesy of Paul Gasol and his 2 missed free throws and a 1 point win no cover versus the Thunder.
They are without Mo Williams, no Delonte West either, and playing a surging Heat squad which looks like they haver their swagger back.
After getting flat out destroyed at Charlotte by 39 they have bounced back to win 2 in a row by 31 over the Kings and 30 over the Pacers.
Miami on a 7-3 SU run at home and all 7 wins have been by double digits.
With the Cavs banged up and a bit short handed and the line begging you to take the Cavs at a short price, it's Wade and company who are the right side and they will take care of business.
FREE SELECTION - HOUSTON ROCKETS
Special K
5* Clippers Under 190.5
5* St Josephs -5
Sportsbetsnow
1 Unit Miami Heat -1
Erin Rynning
Playmaker: Boston Under 190
Tim Trushel
20* Houston
Teddy Covers
Georgetown
Wunderdog
3 Units St. Joesph's / Penn Under 142.5
Marc Lawrence
4 Units SA Spurs -8
3 Units Boise St. +5.5
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Syracuse -6 over Georgetown (BIG EAST GOY)
50* Calgary -160 over St. Louis
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Atlanta
4 Units Memphis
Anthony Redd
30 Dime - Missouri
10 Dime - Georgetown