BEN BURNS
10* BEST BET A.T.S. BEATDOWN!
I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. Every game is big for the Nuggets right now. However, every game is critical for Houston. It's true that the Rockets probably aren't going to make the playoffs this season. However, it's also true that they're still within striking distance and that they're not ready to give up quite yet.
As Luis Scola said: "We need to make a last, final push. We can't hold anything. We got to give everything we have right now. If we lose a couple of games, we'll be on vacation in three weeks. We need to make a last run, try to get back in a playoff push. Hopefully, we'll be a little lucky ... and fight for the last spot."
Speaking of Scola, he's coming off his fifth consecutive double-double. During that span, he's averaged a very impressive 26.2 points and 15.2 rebounds. In Saturday's win over the Nets, Scola went off for 44 points (12 rebounds) while going an outstanding 20 of 25 from the field.
While the Nuggets are practically unbeatable at home, even with having won the first three games of their current road trip, they're still only a mediocre 17-16 on the road. Note that they haven't swept a road trip of four or more games since 2005. (They're 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played their previous three games on the road.) Additionally, note that they haven't swept the Rockets in more than 30 years.
The Nuggets are also an awful 2-12 ATS the last 14 tiems that they were listed as favorites of four points or less. While I'll grab the points, I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to score the minor upset. *10
#1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK! (33-13-1 L47!)
I'm playing on Boston and New Jersey to finish OVER the total. These teams played a pair of low-scoring games against each other earlier in the season. Both games finished with score of 2-1, both in favor of the Devils. However, both of those games were way back in the fall (November and December). They also both had plenty of scoring chances and shots, so either/both could have easily finished with more goals. The first game, which had a total of 5.5, had 63 shots. The next one featured 70.
Tonight's total is listed at five. Based on the way the teams are currently playing, I feel that provides us with solid value.
The Bruins have seen nine of their last 10 games (and 13 of last 15) finish with a minimum of five goals. Two of their last three have finished with six or more.
The Devils have seen eight of their last 10 games finish with a minimum of five goals. Five of their last seven have finished with six or more.
The OVER is 7-4-5 when the Bruins have played a road game with an O/U line of five. The OVER is also 9-6-2 when the Devils have played a home game with an O/U line of five.
Anytime that we play a total with five, there's always a reasonable chance of a 'push.' However, in this case, I feel that there's a greater chance of seeing more than five goals than less. *8
Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!
I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.
Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.
Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.
Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.
I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.
As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.
For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.
Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.
They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."
Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.
While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.
Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: "I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard..."
Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY
5* Sports
5* GOM - LA Clippers -2.5
3* Boston -9
ST BERNADINE SPORTS
2* Washington/Utah Under 205
KELSO
25 Units Jazz -10.5
5 Units Warriors +8
5 Units Pistons +9
TIM TRUSHEL
Celtics Under
Chris Jordan
300♦ DENVER NUGGETS
The Duke's Sports
New York (+3) for 2 Units
The Knicks had a breakout game Saturday at Dallas in a 34 point demolition. Normally, we'd fade NY in this spot for they've been very inconsistent off wins however, D'Antoni has some slashers and shooters in his newly configured lineup that are playing more selfless now than earlier in the season. And the Knicks are starting to get a blend of bench production that D'Antoni so desperately needs in his system. Tonight, the high energy Knicks are catching the 76ers unrested, where they've failed to cover in their last 4 attempts. The road team has covered five straight in this series, including each team winning on the opposing team's home floor this season. The Knicks covered their last two trips to Philly and should deliver tonight; after all, the 'Sixers are a money burning 5-11 ATS as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game.
James Patrick Sports
5* New Orleans
3* Detroit
Street Rosenthal
*200 Utah Jazz -11
POWER PLAY WINS
Detroit/Boston Under 196
Mike Lineback
4* Boston Celtics First Quarter -2½ -110
4* Los Angeles Lakers First Quarter -2½ -115
Rocketman
New York +3.5
New York is 33-17 ATS since 1996 and 28-13 ATS last 3 years in a road game when the total is 210 or higher. Philadelphia is 14-31 ATS since 1996 when the total is 210 or higher. Philadelphia is 4-16 ATS since 1996 at home when the total is 210 or higher. Philadelphia is 9-22 ATS at home this year. Philadelphia has lost 8 of their last 9 games overall. Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll play New York for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
New Orleans +2.5
Something has to give here. The host Clippers have lost seven straight while the visiting Hornets have failed to cover the number in eight straight, including last night's 120-106 loss in Phoenix. However, there are several deciding factors working in the favor of New Orleans. For starters, they are on a phenomenal 10-0 SU/ATS run vs. LA. Overall, they've beaten them 12 straight times! And it's not like the Clippers have been performing well against the pointspread either. In fact, they are just 1-6 ATS during their seven-game losing skid and have been underdogs of 9.5 points or greater in four of those ATS losses. Five of the SU defeats have come by 20 points or greater. Simply put, this team is already playing out the string and it's not even April. They have given up 60+ points in the paint in each of their last two games. During the 12-game series win streak, the Hornets are allowing an average of just 90.2 PPG to the Clippers. Take New Orleans.
Bob Balfe
Philadelphia -3
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
9* Detroit -110
For a number of different reasons, the most important being that Calgary played and lost a tough one just last night, I believe the Red Wings are the prudent wager in this contest as they look to avenge last weeks loss on their home ice.
Both teams need a victory. Both teams are 4-1 their last five.
Calgary beat Detroit last week 4-2 at Joe Louis, but is coming off a disheartening 3-1 loss in Vancouver last night.
Detroit is coming off a 3-2 overtime home win over Buffalo on Saturday.
“We owe Calgary after they embarrassed us in our own barn in the third period,” said Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, who made 28 saves in that last meeting but fell to 0-2-0 with a 3.06 goals-against average versus the Flames. “We’ll be ready.”
That loss in Vancouver snapped a four-game streak for Calgary, and I believe it will suffer a letdown this evening against a determined Red Wings squad anxious and primed to finish the year on a run.
Miikka Kiprusoff was replaced by Vesa Toskala last night after allowing three goals in the first period and "Kippy" is scheduled to be between the pipes again this evening.
Bottom line: Detroit has been waiting in Calgary for the Flames to get home and I believe it gets revenge here and moves to 6-2 in the month of March; play on the WINGS!