Nelly
1* Indians at Rays Under 8.5
Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball but the run production for the Rays has dropped off in recent weeks. The Rays have topped four runs scored just once in the last nine games and Tampa Bay has split the last eight games overall. For the year Tampa Bay is averaging 5.3 runs scored per game but the success of the team has come from allowing an MLB low 3.0 runs per game. The strong pitching numbers have stayed stable for the Rays as only once in the last 17 games has a team scored as many as five runs and that game included extra-innings. Jeff Niemann has been a big part of that success with a great 2nd year going so far for the Rays. Niemann left his first start of the season early but since he has compiled six straight quality outings, featuring a 2.27 season ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Niemann is a great groundball pitcher and an imposing presence on the mound. The Rays also own an impressive bullpen with a 3.14 season ERA. Tropicana Field is surrendering just over eight runs per game this season as it has not been a high scoring park. Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona has been very successful this season, allowing three or fewer runs in six of hi seven starts this year and while his strikeout numbers are down he is allowing very few extra-base hits. He has also been especially sharp away from home with a 1.96 road ERA. Carmona is 4-1 on the season despite playing for a losing Indians team that is averaging just 3.9 runs scored per game. The Cleveland bullpen has been very solid and while the Indians have shown a slight increase in scoring in the last week, that may have been due to facing weak pitching staffs from Kansas City and Baltimore. The 'under' is 10-1-2 in the last 13 games Tampa Bay has played as a favorite and this should be a low-scoring game with two starters that are pitching well going against offenses that has been mediocre for the most part.
Dr. Guru
12* NYM/Atl Over 4.5 1st Half
Cincinnati Kid
Suns +6
Lakers and Suns both enter Game 1 off a SU dog win and a Series sweep - Phoenix owning an extra-days rest and the inferior win-loss percentage...Hosts off a Dog role in the previous round are 1-7 ATS home since '98 in Game 1 of the Conf Finals (3rd Round)...clubs off an Away game and playing host are 3-12 ATS and 1-7 as HF's off BB SU wins...Road teams in the 3-1 game are 11-4 off non-division SU ATS win in the advancing Round 2 contest...Clubs .670 or better vs. the same or better are 5-0 ATS vs a foe w/3 or days rest...Teams .700 or better off a SU Dog win are 1-6 ATS in the 3-1 game and #1 seeds in this 3-1 game are 5-14 ATS since '98...including 1-10 off BB SU wins and 0-10 ATS owning a .666 or better win-loss mark...clubs playing in revenge (same season 1-win revenge as is Los Angeles) 3-1 games are 0-5 facing a foe off a SUATS win...Lakers 0-5 off a Jazz SU ATS win vs a foe off a SU ATS win in the post-season...
Executive
250% Lakers
300% Cubs
DR BOND
10* Phoenix/LA Lakers Under 210.5
Big Daddy
12* Florida -1.5
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Phoenix +6.5
Scott Rickenbach
10* Texas vs Los Angeles Angels Over
After getting swept at Toronto, the Rangers are certainly happy to be back home in Texas where their .282 batting average in home games this season ranks 2nd among all American League teams. The Rangers are known for hitting the ball very well at the Ballpark in Arlington and they certainly should have no problem with the offerings of Scott Kazmir of the Angels. The Los Angeles southpaw has great career numbers against the Rangers but he’s simply not the same pitcher he once was. Kazmir has been unable to get on track this season and that’s why he enters this game with a 2-3 record and a 6.82 ERA on the year. The road has been particularly unkind to Kazmir so far this season as he’s compiled an 8.79 ERA with 12 walks in 14.1 innings of work. Until he gets on track he simply must be faced. Also, another concern here for the Angels is that their bullpen ERA ranks them dead last among American League teams and Kazmir is only averaging 5 innings per start so far this season!
As for the Rangers, their pitching situation looks better. However, looks can be deceiving. Even though Derek Holland gave Texas a great outing in his first start of the season, the southpaw faced an Oakland team that ranks second to last in the majors for slugging percentage. This time, in just his second start this season, Holland is facing an Angels team that is starting to turn things around. Los Angeles is coming off of a 3-game sweep of Oakland and they got their sticks going in the process as they averaged nearly 7 runs per game in the sweep! Holland is 2-2 in his career against the Angels but note the 5.26 ERA against the Halos. Also, the Rangers southpaw has a 6.58 ERA and a .313 BAA in his career outings at home – in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark. In his two career outings at home against the Angels, Holland has given up 11 earned runs in 8.1 innings of work. Look for more of the same here and, also note that the Rangers pitching staff got battered in Toronto over the weekend. Texas is 9-4 to the over this season when they are at home and the posted total is 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the Rangers are 22-12 to the over on Mondays the last three seasons. Keep in mind, some teams hit better after having played an afternoon game the day before and, of course, Sunday games are nearly always day games so don’t shrug off the fact that the Rangers have a history of playing higher scoring games on Mondays. There is some substance there. Look for these two southpaws to struggle tonight! Play OVER the total in Texas as a *10* Top Play selection Monday!
10* Los Angeles Lakers (-) vs Phoenix
The Lakers are 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 ATS in their last six home games against the Suns. Overall, the Lakers are 9-3 straight-up and 8-4 ATS against Phoenix in all games the last three seasons. The fact is that Los Angeles just has too much size and physical edge inside for the Suns to handle. Sure, Phoenix would like to get out and run and play “Suns basketball” but, especially on the road, that’s going to be tough to do in this series. The Lakers are good at forcing the tempo and forcing the “slow down” as their size inside helps give them match-up edges in the paint that they can use to their advantage on both ends of the floor. The extra rest certainly benefited both teams heading into this series but it particularly benefited the Lakers as there were some key injury situations that received extra benefit from the layoff. Also, the Suns style, run and gun and knocking down perimeter shots is more impacted by a layoff than the Lakers style where they rely more on physicality on both ends of the floor and that includes creating open, shorter looks at the hoop on the offensive end.
Just as we went against Orlando (a perimeter shooting team) and cashed in yesterday when the Magic were off of a layoff, we expect a similar result today. We go against a Suns team that relies heavily on fluid ball movement and knocking down outside shots, including the 3 ball, and that’s tough to do after a long layoff. The line on this game right now has been bouncing between a 6 and a 6.5 as of early Monday morning. Note that the Suns are 2-4 ATS this season, and 5-12 ATS the last three seasons, as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, when playing with 3 or more days of rest the Suns are 5-8 ATS the last three seasons. As for Los Angeles, the Lakers are 17-8 ATS the last three seasons when playing with three or more days of rest. Also, the Lakers have gone 3-0 to the over (with one push) the last four games and they are 10-1 ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more overs! Also, off of an upset win as an underdog at Utah in Game Four a week ago, you might expect the Lakers to struggle in their next game. However, the Lakers are 17-9 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. They are the better defense, have big size edges inside, and they ride their home court edge to the victory circle in game one. Play the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points as a *10* Top Play selection on Monday.
8* Toronto vs Minnesota Over
The Blue Jays lead the majors in home runs and in extra base hits. Though they didn’t hit the ball well Sunday, Toronto still managed to score 5 runs and they ended up averaging 9 runs per game in their three game sweep of Texas. The Twins fell short in their first two games with the Yankees this weekend but a big grand slam from Jason Kubel put them over the top Sunday although that game still stayed under the total. In fact, every game in the American League stayed under the total Sunday and that is something you won’t see very often when it’s a full card. That should help give us some line value here as Monday’s totals may get held a little lower than usual after Sunday’s results. Note that the Twins are handing the ball to Kevin Slowey Monday and he’s coming off of a rough start against the Chicago White Sox. Also, Slowey is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays. Toronto is expecting to get back Travis Snyder Monday after he missed the Jays last two games. Snyder is 4 for 5 in his career against the Twins right-hander. Slowey won’t be the only hurler getting roughed up on Monday.
The Blue Jays are sending Dana Eveland to the mound and the southpaw lost for the 2nd time in 3 starts in his most recent outing. Walks were an issue and Eveland only lasted four innings in a very rough start. The left-hander has been hit hard in four of his last five outings and he also has more walks than strikeouts on the season. Eveland is quickly finding that pitching in hitter-friendly Toronto is not near as palatable as pitching in pitcher-friendly Oakland. Eveland has a 6.43 ERA and a .318 BAA in his home starts so far this season. The Twins Slowey not only has the ugly ERA against Toronto, the Blue Jays have actually hit .370 against him in four career starts. The Twins right-hander got hit at a .309 clip last season and is already getting hit at a .304 clip this season. Look for plenty of fireworks north of the border Monday! Play OVER the total in Toronto as an *8* Regular Play selection.
King Creole
2* Suns/Lakers Under 211.0
Many of the SAME OU Systems that applied in yesterday's win (Magic / Celtics UNDER) are also active tonight in Game One of the Western Conference Finals. Since that one was a pretty easy OU outcome, we'll RIDE 'EM again tonight....
0-14 O/U (with yesterday's WIN) since 97: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE home favorites of < 7 points playing off a 4-0 SWEEP in their previous Playoff round (Lakers).
2-20 O/U (with yesterday's win) since 05: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE (in Rounds 2. 3 or 4) teams playing with 5 or more days of REST (Lakers AND Suns). Favorites of 7 3 points (Lakers)... with an OU line in the range of 205 to 220 points.
0-5 O/U since 95: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE teams playing off BB Playoff UNDERDOG wins in a row (BOTH teams apply)... when the OU line is 178 > points.
0-9 O/U since 05: All NBA Playoff ROAD teams off 6 or more SU Playoff wins in a row (Suns)... when the OU line is 183 > points.
0-6 O/U since 03: Same situations as above... IF these road teams are also off 6 ATS wins in row (suns).
As is usually the case, we wrap up our 4* Best Bet query with a look at this particular Day of the Week...
5-17-1 O/U since 1991: All NBA Playoff ROUND THREE home teams playing on a MONDAY (Lakers). In Games One, Two, or Three... the results are a PERFECT 0-4 O/U
BOB BALFE
St. Louis Cardinals -160
St. Louis Cardinals/Washington Nationals Over 9
The Nationals have played pretty well this year, but are not a good team on the road and Stammen really struggles when he pitches away. Kyle Lohse has not pitched well this season either but should get enough run support today to get his first win of the year. This is a great spot for us to take the Cardinals and the Over in the same game.
Savannah Sports
2* Florida -144
Eric Degarde
1* Oakland -156
1* Florida Over 9
1* NY Mets +135
MARC LAWRENCE
3 UNIT LA Lakers
3 UNIT Chicago Cubs
ROCKETMAN
4 UNIT Chicago WS
5 UNIT Oakland A's
Billy Coleman
3* Cleve/TB under 8'
Big Al
3* Angels/Rangers 'under' 9 (Kazmir/Holland)
3* White Sox/Tigers 'under' 9 (Garcia/Porcello)
Opinion Cardinals -158 (Lohse/Stammen)
Opinion Mets/Braves 'over' 8.5 (Pelfrey/Lowe)