Al DeMarco
5 DIME* MLB* Atlanta Braves, (LOWE)
5 DIME* MLB* Detroit Tigers, (PORCELLO)
5 DIME* NBA* Los Angeles Lakers, Over 210.5
Anthony Redd
20 DIME* NBA* 1H* Los Angeles Lakers,
Bobby Maxwell
100 UNIT* MLB* ROAD WARRIOR* Los Angeles Angels,
500 UNIT* NBA* WESTERN CONFERENCE EZ WINNER* Phoenix Suns,
Chris Jordan
300* MLB* Philadelphia Phillies,
Chuck O'Brien
20 DIME* MLB* New York Yankees, -1.5 RL (HUGHES)
Craig Davis
20 DIME* MLB* Florida Marlins, Over
40 DIME* NBA* Phoenix Suns,
Derek Mancini
15 DIME* NBA* Los Angeles Lakers,
5 DIME* MLB* Minnesota Twins,
Karl Garrett
10 DIME* MLB* BONUS PLAY* San Francisco Giants,
30 DIME* NBA* STRONGEST PLAY OF THE SEASON #5* Phoenix Suns,
Michael Cannon
25 DIME* NBA* Phoenix Suns,
Stephen Nover
40 DIME* NBA* Los Angeles Lakers, (BUY DOWN TO 5.5)
Jeff Benton
15 DIME: L.A. LAKERS
I’ve always said basketball, more than any other sport, is a game of matchups. Both the Suns and Lakers have proven that theory true so far in the playoffs. Start with the Suns. They knocked off the Trailblazers in six games in the opening round in large part because Portland didn’t have its best player (Brandon Roy) on the court for the first two games, and in the last four, Roy was shell of his usual self (returning way too early after knee surgery). Without Roy, who is also Portland’s best defender, at 100 percent, Phoenix was able to run its trademark pick-and-roll to near perfection with little resistance.
Then in the second round, the Suns caught a San Antonio squad that got old before our eyes. I’m not at all discrediting Phoenix for sweeping the Spurs – that was extremely impressive and something I certainly didn’t expect. But in retrospect, I should’ve recognized that San Antonio didn’t have the personnel to keep up with Phoenix’s speed, as the Suns easily moved the ball around and to wide open perimeter shooters for easy 3-point buckets, or easy pick-and-roll layups. The fact Phoenix finished the year 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS against the Spurs – the only loss was by 3 points on the road – says it all.
Now to the Lakers. Matchups have been a story of their postseason, too. In the first round, Los Angeles had a lot of trouble putting away the young, athletic upstart Thunder. And although the Lakers finished the series in six games, only one was a blowout. Then L.A. moved on to face Utah, and it was an absolute mismatch from the get-go because the Jazz could not deal with the Lakers’ size down low.
And that brings us to this series and tonight’s Game 1. Phoenix in many ways is very similar to the Jazz. They have an outstanding point guard who is one of the best floor leaders in the game, but they don’t have anyone who can defend Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum down low – actually, that’s not entirely true. Phoenix does have one guy who CAN defend the post, and that’s Amar’e Stoudemire … he just chooses not to play defense.
When you look at the four matchups between these Pacific Division rivals, here’s what you see: The Lakers went 3-1 SU and ATS, with wins of 19, 20 and 6 points (the latter on the road). And when you look at Phoenix’s last four trips to Los Angeles, you see four losses with final scores of 115-110, 132-106, 121-102 and 108-88. Going back further, the Suns have cashed just four times in the last 13 meetings with the Lakers, and the home team is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
Finally, both these teams have enjoyed a week off leading up to this contest – and there’s no question that time off has been much more beneficial to the Lakers (and injured superstar Kobe Bryant in particular) than the Suns. In the end, I look for Bryant to be the difference-maker. He’s averaging 26.9 ppg in the playoffs, and against the Jazz he shot a whopping 52.3 percent from the field. Bryant has also been at his best this year when well-rested, putting up 26.8 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting after three or more days of rest. And in four games against the Suns, Bryant averaged 27.5 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 assists per contest.
If Kobe comes out hot, L.A. will win this game by 15-plus points, because as noted already, the Suns have no answer for Gasol and Bynum. The only way Phoenix competes is if it continues its torrid three-point shooting (the Suns have made 47.3 percent from beyond the arc in their last five games). Well, I highly doubt that will happen when you consider the Lakers hold the opposition to just 32.7 percent from three-point land – the best in the NBA.
Power Play Wins
Los Angeles Lakers -6
Cal Sports
5* Lakers
3* Lakers Under
Chris Jordan
300♦ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5
I'll side with the National League's best offense tonight, as it's scored an NL-high 85 runs this month, while its 5.55 runs per game this season leads the league. Philadelphia is once again off and running, as it brings a three-game win streak into this Keystone Series opener. The Phils are 11-3 in May, and looking like the two-time defending National League champs right now.
And it's not just hitting, which by the way has been sparked by my boy Shane Victorino (he lives in Las Vegas during the offseason), who has five home runs 17 RBI; the team has also improved its pitching. In April the Phils' 4.34 ERA ranked 18th in the bigs; the team's 2.83 ERA in May is just behind the Rays and Padres.
Though I'm not listing pitchers, it's important to note Philadelphia's scheduled starter Kyle Kendrick is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Pirates. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two May outings.
With Kendrick toeing the slab, the Phils are on winning runs of 5-1 versus the NL Central, 4-1 when he's at home and 14-5 when he opens a series.
On the other hand, I know Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton has improved dramatically over his past few starts, but he's capable of being a bust. He was 0-4 with a 16.20 ERA through his first four starts and is 1-6 with a 9.19 ERA on the year.
Plus, with Morton on the bump, the Pirates are on losing streaks of 1-10 on the road, 5-16 when he's the underdog and 1-6 overall.
Philadelphia has won 20 of the last 27 meetings at home,and six of the last Keystone State clashes overall.
Play the Phils in a rout.
Teddy Covers
Suns
Braves
Twins
Stephen Nover
40-Dime L.A. Lakers
A healthy Kobe Bryant, home-court and a big size advantage will be enough for the Los Angeles Lakers to cover this opening game of the Western Conference Finals.
I'm making this play when the Lakers are minus 6. So I would buy an extra-point down to get the number under six just in case the Suns have designs on a bacidoor cover.
Amare Stoudamire averaged 20 points and nine rebounds against the Lakers, but he has no reboutnding help to contend with Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum.
The combination of the Lakers' muscle inside and Bryant is a lethal combonation for the Suns. Phoenix lacks anyone who can stop Bryant's penetration.
The key for Bryant is a return to health. Bryant was ailing during the Lakers' opening-round series against Oklahoma City. But now he's back to his fearless form, putting together four strong games in a row to help finish Utah off.
Stoudamire and Steve Nash, even at 36, figure to play well for Phoenix. But the Suns need Jason Richardson to step up. They are 31-4 when he scores 20 or more points.
The Lakers, though, held Richardson to 8.8 points on 31 percent shooting from the floor in four regular-season games.
The Suns lack the muscle and interior defense to keep this one close at Staples Center. The Lakers have covered in nine of their last 13 games versus Phoenix.
The Suns also don't have a good history when playing with extended rest. They are 6-13-1 ATS when playing on three days rest or more.
Michael Cannon
25 Dime Phoenix Suns
Take the points with the Suns tonight in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals over the Lakers.
I expect Phoenix to come out and really try to push the tempo here. The Suns have used their up tempo style to neutralize the advantage some teams have over them in the paint.
There’s no question the Lakers are strong inside, so look for Steve Nash and company to get out and run in transition in an effort to negate LA’s bigs.
The Suns are on a 6-0 SUATS run and are 8-1 SUATS in their last nine.
Los Angeles is just 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 at home, so it’s not like they’ve been blowing people away.
Phoenix has also done a decent job defensively and that’s another reason they should be able to keep it close here.
Take the points with the Suns as they stay within the number in Game 1
Karl Garrett
30 Dime Phoenix Suns
10 Dime SF Giants
No doubt the Suns are up against it in this series, but with both team having had plenty of time to rest and heal, I think tonight is the night you have to take the undirdog, and look for both the Suns deep bench, and their newfound passion for playing defense to be the way to go.
I have to admit the Lakers toughest matchup this postseason probably came in the 1st round against the Thunder, but Phoenix does possess enough depth, and enough quickness to make a game of it tonight in the City on Angels. It also helps matters that Robin Lopez is expected to give Alvin Gentry's team some mintutes. Lopez brings some size to help negate some of the size that the Lakers have that will defintely present Phoenix with matchup problems before this series is over.
Phoenix is on a 34-16-1 spread run their last 51 games, while the Lakers are on a 5-11-1 home spread slide their last 17 home dates.
While an outright win may not be in the cards for Phoenix, I do belove the points will work. Take the Suns for my 30 dime winner # 5 in a row.
Your bonus baseball 10 dime winner will be to continue to go against the Padres.
San Diego can pitch, I will give them that, but they cannot hit at all. The Padres have been held to a grand total of 5 runs in their last 4 games. The last 3 games have all been losses for the Pods, and now they face a Giants team that is itching to get some payback against them.
Diego and Frisco have played 6 times this season, and San Diego has won ALL 6.
Tonight's pitching matchup is the same as it was on the 12th, when the Padres lit up Matt Cain for 5 runs in his 7 innings of work against them, handing him the loss. Clayton Richard picked up the win in that game, going 7 frames while allowing just 2 runs to cross.
Things change tonight, as the Giants get on board in the season series with the win.
Remember: both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the release.
Derek Mancini
15 Dime - Lakers
5 Dime - Twins
There's a huge difference between the Spurs and the Lakers, and no it's not age, but the ability to defend the 3-point line. The Lakers led the NBA in opponents 3-point percentage, hoding team's to just 32% from long range. This is undoubtedly the most important statistic in this series, because unlike the Suns-Spurs match up, the Lakers have just as much depth. If the Lakers protect the 3-point line (as I expect), they will win this game comfortably.
Then, there's the rest factor. I said in my analysis Sunday, that rest is overrated. And that's true for the Celtics/Magic series, but its very relevant for the Lakers in this series. Did you notice the difference in Kobe Bryant from Game 5 to Game 6 (and onward) in the Thunder series? What was the difference? Rest. Kobe has a lot of wear and tear, and it shows when he's been run ragged. But with the extra rest, we see the Kobe of old, and that goes for Gasol, Fisher, and even the younger Bynum (rest for his ailing knee). A rested Lakers team is the cream of the NBA crop.
Although everyone can agree the playoffs are a different animal, its important to look at the regular season match ups. Lakers went 3-1 SUATS against the Suns this season, and in the only game they lost, it was clear why... They allowed the Suns to make 12 3-pointers, which extended their defense and left them exposed. Phoenix may find a way to do that as the series progresses, but the Lakers will not be fooled tonight, not with so much time to prepare. The Lakers are the play in Game 1.
5 Dime - Twins
This line reeks of a trap. You've got a red-hot Blue Jays team (11-3 L14 games), starting a pitcher that's pitched well against the Twins in the past (Eveland 1.80 ERA in 3 games - 1 start vs Minnesota). Opposed by a Twins starter in Slowey with a career 6.23 ERA in 4 starts against Toronto... And yet the price doesn't represent those facts.
Slowey may be coming off an ugly start, but he's been more effective on the road (2-1, 4.60 ERA), and will of course be looking to bounce back. Same is true of Eveland, in that he's also coming off an ugly start, but the difference is he's been terrible at the Rogers Centre (1-1, 6.43 ERA). In his last 2 starts there, he got ripped by Boston (understandable), but then followed that with a pedestrian effort against Oakland (inexcusable).
Minnesota's been up and down of late, but one thing you cannot deny them is their ability to hit lefties (5.2 runs per game - batting .289 on the season against them). Everyone loves the Blue Jays high-octane offense, but beating up on the Rangers pitchers is nothing special. They had trouble with Boston and the White Sox's staffs, and Minnesota's is better than all three of those clubs. High-flying Blue Jays offense will hit a snag tonight. Twins (Slowey) over Blue Jays (Eveland) Monday.
Chuck O'Brien
Yankees -1½
Yes, I lost a 10 Dime play on the Yankees run-line against Minnesota yesterday (New York allowed five eighth-inning runs to turn a 3-1 lead into a 6-3 loss). But the Yankees are still 12-3 at home this year; they haven’t lost consecutive home games all season (nor have they done so since Sept. 11-12, a stretch of 33 home contests); they’re still 50-12 in their last 62 home games (that’s an 81 percent winning clip); and they’re still on a 13-3 roll against the Red Sox, winning the last seven meetings with Boston in the Bronx … Not only has New York won 13 of the last 16 against its hated rivals, but all 13 of those wins were by multiple runs (thus covering the run line). In fact, all 16 contests were decided by more than one run. … That brings me to my favorite factoid of this baseball season: 34 of New York’s 37 games this season – including all 24 of its victories – have been decided by multiple runs.
If that’s not enough to convince you to back the Bronx Bombers in a blowout tonight, this should do the trick: The Yankees’ most consistent starting pitcher is taking the mound tonight, and that’s Phil Hughes. Hughes is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in six starts; he’s held all six opponents to two runs or fewer (including giving up a total of two runs in his last three starts covering 21 innings); he’s got a 21-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those three starts; opponents are batting just .136 against Hughes this season; and he pitched the Yankees to a 10-3 win at Fenway Park 10 days ago (two runs allowed in seven innings). Compare all that with Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has a 6.35 ERA in three starts this season and a 5.49 ERA in seven starts against New York. … I love my Red Sox, but as you know, I’m not against making money betting against them when I know they’re in a bad spot. This is one of those cases, as they’re just not in the Yankees’ league this year.
Bobby Maxwell
500-Unit PHOENIX SUNS
100-Unit L.A. ANGELS
No strangers to each other here in the Western Conference Finals as the Suns and Lakers tip-off from the Staples Center in Los Angeles. I’m thinking this is going to be a very tightly contested series and not the cakewalk a lot of people think for the Lakers. Tonight, I’m grabbing the points and going with Phoenix.
The Lakers have struggled to cash tickets at home all season and they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 inside Staples Center. They are also on ATS slides of 3-8 against Pacific Division teams, 3-11 after a spread-cover and 2-8-1 on Mondays.
Look at the other side of the ledger and you’ll see the Suns are on ATS hot streaks of 5-1 on the road, 34-16-1 overall, 20-8-1 after a straight-up win, 19-6-1 after a spread-cover, 5-0 as an underdog and 22-8-1 against winning teams.
The key to this series is going to be the outside shooting of the Suns. Can guys like Jason Richardson, Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, Leandor Barbosa and Steve Nash get their shots to fall? Phoenix’s bench is superb and much better than the Lakers and they bring the energy to the game when the starters need it.
The Lakers are going to struggle to get to the outside shooters and with Bynum not 100 percent, you have to wonder if their inside game is going to be dominant.
Phoenix played an outstanding series against the Spurs and they have great confidence coming into this one. The Lakers did take three of four this season but the teams only met once in the second half of the season when the Suns seemed to figure things out. In that one, the Lakers scored a 102-96 win in Phoenix.
This game is going to be close, right down to the wire. The Suns seemed to hit everything they threw at the basket in the fourth quarter against San Antonio and if they can find that range against the Lakers, they have a real shot at upsetting the defending champs. Today, let’s grab the points and go with Phoenix.
100-Unit Baseball Road Warrior - L.A. ANGELS (play only with Kazmir as listed pitcher for the Angels)
Texas returns home tonight after a brief three-game trip to Toronto that saw them lose all three games and get outscored 27-12. That’s a long trip for just three games and now they come home and play immediately against the Angels, who just swept the A’s in Anaheim. I’ll play the Angels to keep it going tonight.
Los Angeles won five of the last seven against the Rangers last year and they come in to this one having won seven of their last nine series openers, five of six against A.L. West teams and seven of eight Monday contests. Plus the Angels are 24-9 in their last 33 roadies against southpaws.
On the hill tonight for the Angels is Scott Kazmir who is 2-3 with a 6.82 ERA this season. The southpaw hasn’t found that form he had for so many years in Tampa Bay, but you can see glimpses of it. He faced the Rangers last year and held them to no runs on six hits in six innings of a 2-0 win in Arlington. With Kazmir on the hill, his teams have won nine of 10 against the Rangers, including 4-1 in Texas.
Lefty Derek Holland will make just his second start of the season. He didn’t finish strong last season, as the Rangers lost six of his seven starts to close the campaign. Two of those were against the Angels who got him for 10 runs on 16 hits in 12 innings of 10-5 and 5-0 losses.
I’m going with Kazmir and the Angels to go to Texas and get this one. Play the Angels.
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Phoenix / Los Angeles Over
5 Dime Atlanta
5 Dime Detroit
One key for me when it comes to handicapping baseball is reading every single boxscore on a daily basis and when something stands out, making note of it. In Mike Pelfrey's last start for the Mets against Washington, he needed 119 pitches to get through 5.2 innings. That's was a red flag for a guy battling shoulder fatigue of late and right then I decided to go against him in his next start, which is tonight in Atlanta. The fact that he's 1-2 in his last three starts against the Braves, allowing 23 hits and 12 earned runs, walking nine in 15.1 innings pitched, is just an added bonus.
The Mets, riding so high just a few short weeks ago, are floundering. They just got swept in a four-game set at Florida and have lost 11 of their last 15 overall. On the road they've struggied all season, going 4-12 outside of New York, losing eight of their last nine on the highway. And Atlanta has been a house of horrors for them as they're 4-14 since the start of the 2008 campaign in Georgia with Pelfrey personally going 0-2 in three starts with an 11.30 ERA. Considering his last three starts this season have resulted in a linescore reading 23 hits and 13 earned runs allowed over 17 innings pitched - and factoring in his 119-pitch performance in his last trip to the mound - I'll go against New York tonight. Plus, the Braves are on a 5-1 tear at home, scoring 48 runs in that stretch.
Do you realize the Tigers have taken consecutive home series against the Red Sox (2-1), Yankees (3-1), Twins (2-1) and Angels (3-0) - all playoff teams - to improve to 14-5 on the season at home with 10 wins in their last 13 games in Motown?
One guy who loves the home cooking is Rick Porcello. At Comercia Park he's 3-0 in four starts with a 3.86 ERA. Compare that to his 0-3 record and 9.88 earned run average on the road. Ouch.
In his last start at home Porcello blanked the Yankees over seven innings, allowitng just four hits. If he could hold New York's potent attack in check, he can certainly stop Chicago's impotent line-up.
Yes, Freddie Garcia has some impressive career numbers against Detroit, but the majority of those were compiled long before his career was derailed by shoulder and arm injuries. And yes, he's won his last two starts against the Twins and Royals, but take a look at the linescores for those two games: 19 hits allowed in 13 innings. No surprise considerong he's allowed 56 baserunners in 36 innings this season.
How the Tigers aren't a -185 favorite - or higher - in this spot is a surprise to me.
Both of these teams love to run. Both are rested. And yet this total is sitting at 211.
Yesterday I gave you a free play winner on the Celtics-Magic Under. These teams aren't Boston and Orlando; they want to get out and run the floor and with Nash and Kobe both rested, that's what they're going to do. And frankly, that's what each has to do to be successful.
Take a look at the regular season match-ups: The first on November 21 resulted in 223 points being scored. The second on December 6 only had 196 total points, but I think that had much to do with the fact the Suns were tired, playing their sixth road game in a 10-day stretch. In a rematch December 28, they combined for 221 points. In the final meeting on March 12, they combined for only 198, but the Suns were out of synch that game, falling behind early by 15 in the first half after being idle for six days. Plus they were minus one of their key bench contributors, Channing Frye, and you see how valuable he's been in the postseason.
Bottom line: When I look at this game I believe the percentages are greater for both teams getting into the 105-110 range than for either to be held under the century mark in scoring. Thus the over is the play as I projected this total to be somewhere in the vicinity of 217, not the 211 or so it actually is priced.
Also, consider that against a slower, plodding team like the Spurs in Round Two, the Suns scored 111, 110, 110 and 107 points in sweeping the series. And in the three of the six games against Portland in Round One they scored 107 points or more, settling for 99 and 100 and two of the others.
Matt Fargo
10* Lakers -6
Wizard of Odds Guaranteed Selections
STAT MASTER WIZARD BASEBALL WINNER
NY Yankees w/Hughes -189