Evan Altemus
Cardinals/Phillies UNDER 9.5
These are two of the best hitting teams in the National League, but I feel that this game is a great chance to take advantage of an over inflated total. First, Joe Blanton will be making his first start since coming off of the disabled list. As a result, he’ll come out focused and well rested against a tough opponent. He has also pitched very well against Albert Pujols, who has only gone 1 for 8 against Blanton. Meanwhile, St. Louis sends lefty starter Jaime Garcia to the mound, who has been excellent since joining the rotation. Teams are not familiar with his stuff, and he has posted an excellent strikeout to walk ratio this season. It is also significant that this total is at 9.5 instead of 9, meaning that the game can end 5-4 and still cash. St. Louis, despite having a good offense, is 8-16-1 to the over/under this season. That is because they have excellent pitching, both starters and the bullpen. Philadelphia has a decent bullpen also. I like taking the under here in the first game of this series, especially with the game being played on Monday. Look for this game to fall under the total.
Tony George
PHOENIX SUNS -4
Just a brutal series for the Spurs against hated rival Dallas, and a good scheduling spot for the Suns at home here they shoot better, play better defense, and have a strong homecourt. Getting Steve Nash well rested after sitting out practice with a sore hip the past 2 days is all good, and the frontcourt of the Suns will be more of an issue for Spurs than Dallas was, who never push it in the middle. The Suns won both games at home this year against the Spurs by double digits, and while I do not expect a blowout, I expect a 6-8 point win at home for the Suns tonight, who are determined to get over on the Spurs tis year, a team who has knocked them out of contention in the post season many times.Play 1 Unit on the Suns.
Eric Degarde
2* Kansas City +130
1* Detroit -110
1* CWS +185
1* Philadelphia +120
2* LA Lakers Over 198
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
POWER PLAY BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
LA ANGELS and BOSTON OVER 10
Chuck O'Brien
15 Dime Philadelphia Phillies
Teddy Covers
Celtics/Cavs Over
DBacks
MATT FARGO
Cardinals at Phillies
Pick: Phillies +120
This is a great price for the Phillies at home as getting them as underdogs at Citizens Bank Park with a top class starter on the hill is extremely rare. Philadelphia is coming off a series win against the Mets as the offense came to life the last two games by scoring 21 runs over the weekend. The Cardinals are obviously playing excellent baseball right now as they have won seven of their last eight games but the last six wins came at home where they are 10-3 on the season. Joe Blanton makes his season debut after spending the first month of the season on the DL with a strained left oblique. Blanton threw three, pain-free minor league rehab outings in April and before Sunday's game, Blanton said he's been healthy for a long time. “You feel good, but then you have to go through three rehab outings,” he said. “I was frustrated because I was fine. I was ready to be back.” To put this line into perspective, in 16 home starts last season, Blanton was listed as the underdog only twice, once in the regular season against Jon Lester and the Red Sox and the other in the World Series against C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees. He is now getting underdog money against a rookie and against a team he has prospered against. He is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis. The rookie mentioned earlier is Jaime Garcia who has been extremely efficient to start the season. He has a 1.04 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through four starts, all of which have been quality outings. This will be the most potent offense he has seen so far this year and the Phillies are hitting .317 at home against left-handed pitching. As good as the Cardinals have been the last couple seasons, the Phillies have owned this series with wins in eight of the last 10 and 13 of the last 20 meetings. Play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season and allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last two outings. This situation is 77-35 (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons and is even better than that considering the average moneyline has been as underdogs. 10* Philadelphia Phillies
The Duke's Sports
Philadelphia (+105) for 2 Units
Cardinals are rolling along pretty well but should find trouble here; after all, St. Louis has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and 4 of the last 5 in Philadelphia. Sure, Jaime Garcia has been a pleasant surprise to the Cardinals' rotation; however, Philly has feasted on Cardinals' pitching and Garcia will be tested at this strong venue. The Phillies are batting a healthy .317 at home and should give Joe Blanton (Phillies' starter) good run support. Blanton, who is making his season debut after an oblique injury in spring training, should do well in this sport. Blanton is 15-7 in his last 22 team home starts. Pujols and the Cardinals have struggled against Blanton. The big right hander controls a 1.71 ERA in 3 starts vs St. Louis. Phillies the call.
ASA
3* Texas Rangers (Harden) +125 over Oakland (Braden)
Oakland was a surprising hot team early in the season but the last road trip has taken a toll as the A’s dropped five of six games out east. Injuries are mounting for the A’s with Kurt Suzuki hitting the DL most recently, now making four regulars in the lineup out of action. The A’s have out-scored opponents by just two runs and are .500 for the season through a favorable early season schedule. The road team actually won six of the last eight meetings between these teams in 2009 so there is no assurance that there will be a big edge for the A’s at home tonight. Oakland also faced long travel back from Toronto, while Texas was already on the west coast.
The Rangers have now won six of the last eight games as the offense is picking up. Texas has scored nearly five runs per game in the last ten games and although the team average is marginal for the season there has been a big jump from the cold early season numbers. With Nelson Cruz on the DL a lot of production has been lost, but the Rangers are 5-1 so far without him. The Rangers have not had great success against left-handed pitching but the current lineup should be well suited to handle this match-up. Texas found ways to win in the last two match-ups against left-handers, winning games going against Cliff Lee and Mark Buehrle last week.
Dallas Braden has made headlines this season but his pitching has taken a tumble this season since his public spat with Alex Rodriguez. Braden was rocked in Tampa Bay last week, allowing eight hits and six runs in four innings. The A’s are 4-1 behind him this season which creates this favored line for the lesser A’s team but Braden has not been dominant. He has allowed four home runs and 13 runs in his last four starts while striking out just nine batters. The Oakland bullpen has also taken a step back after posting strong early season numbers. With two starters out of action and three relievers now on the DL, this could be a very tough stretch for the Oakland pitching staff.
Rich Harden will have a chance tonight against his former team as Harden pitched in Oakland for over five years. He knows how to pitch in this ballpark and so far he has been a good signing for the Rangers, delivering solid results. He walks far too many batters but has the strikeout capability to get around the extra base runners. Harden is holding opposing batters to just a .225 batting average this season and the Rangers have won three of his last four starts, with his only loss coming in New York. With underdog value on a Rangers team that looks like the best in the AL West this should be a good opportunity to back Texas and the A's should be a team to fade in the coming weeks with the injuries and the inflated valuation on Oakland.
3* play on: Over 204.5 San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
The Spurs and Suns have had some legendary battles in the playoffs and don't expect that to change this post season. What to expect in Game 1 is a higher scoring game that flies over the total. The Spurs aren't quite the same team they've been in the past as defensively they're not as good. Last season the Spurs allowed just 93.5 ppg which was good enough for 2nd in the League. They were 6th in the league in defensive efficiency. This year they're 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 96 ppg and 8th in defensive efficiency. That's not the only change in San Antonio this season. Offensively the focus is not Tim Duncan anymore as Giniboli, Parker, Jefferson and the rest of the Spurs have taken on the scoring burden. San Antonio went from scoring 96.7 ppg last year to 100.8 ppg this season.
We positively know what Phoenix brings to the table tonight. They'll push the tempo and force the Spurs into the pace they want. Phoenix averages 112.3 ppg which is #1 in the league at home, 109.8 ppg overall. The Suns are the most efficient team in the league as they average 1.121 points per possession. San Antonio isn't far behind in the 9th position averaging 1.067 points per possession.
These two teams met three times this year and the total points scored were 213, 223 and 220 total points. The pace of play numbers were also pretty high as they attempted 162, 168 and 152 shots respectively in the three games. Both teams shot extremely well in the regular season series as they combined to average over 50% shooting from the field. We may change our opinion on this series as we progress but we feel very confident Game 1 goes over the total tonight!
Point Train
5-Units Phoenix (-3.5) over San Antonio
This isn’t the same Phoenix team that has lost to the Spurs two of the last three seasons. The 2007 & 2008 Suns relied heavily on just being able to out-score their opponents, and it always worked out fine in the regular season, and killed them in the playoffs. But this team has a completely different approach to the game and now has a defensive mind-set that will allow them to steal game one against San Antonio tonight.
The Suns haven't stopped scoring in bunches. Their league-leading scoring average of 110.2 points per game was forged not through pace, but with some of the best long-range shooting the league ever has seen. Their league-leading 41.2 percent 3-point shooting was the second-highest in NBA history. In the first round against Portland, the Blazers collapsed on Amare Stoudemire in the paint, and that allowed the Suns to fire away from the beyond the arc. The Suns responded by making 40% of their 3-point attempts. Stoudemire still scored 20.5 PPG in the series, making 54% of his shots. He averaged 39 points against the spurs in the 2005 Western Conference finals, but he is a couple of years older and is more focused on the defensive end of the floor.
“The difference for us is we're a much better defensive team. That makes us different from the previous Phoenix Suns teams that played the Spurs.” Stoudemire continued
“That's what I've been working on the past few years — getting better defensively. I feel I have gotten better, and we have as a team. It's about being smart and getting stops. We'll see how it goes.”
Phoenix won both matchups with the Spurs at home this season. The Suns shot 51% (47.5% beyond the arc) and had 14 more shot attempts in the two games. San Antonio averaged 16 TO’s per game and shot just 31.6% from beyond the arc.
Phoenix is 34-10 at home this season, outscoring their opponents at home this season by 9.7 PPG. San Antonio is rather pedestrian on the road, with a 22-22 record, outscoring opponents by a measly 1.4 PPG.
A lot of the experts are jumping on the San Antonio bandwagon right now. They baffled the Mavericks in the first round and, because of that, everyone thinks that they are one of the front runners for the NBA title. Don’t look too much into it, the Spurs defeated an overrated Dallas squad that was filled aging veterans and a sub-par coach. Phoenix will
San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Phoenix is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite. They are also on an amazing 29-11-1 ATS overall run and we expect that to continue tonight with a big win over the Spurs
Nelly
1* San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns OVER 203.5
The Spurs and Suns played very high scoring regular season games with final scores resulting in 220, 223, and 213 points. The lowest regular season total between these teams was 206 so this price is discounted despite all three regular season meetings playing 'over'. The dip in scoring for the Suns in the first round of the playoffs is the culprit for the lower number as the 'under' cashed in each of the final four games of the opening round series with Portland. Three of those four games came in Portland however and the Blazers are a very effective defensive team particularly at home. The 'under' also had some success in that series as Portland’s leading scorer Brandon Roy missed time and was extremely limited in the games he did play. The 'under' went 5-0-1 in the opening round series for the Spurs which helps to keep this figure in check for game 1. San Antonio did a great job defensively against Dallas but the pace in this series should be in great contrast with that series. In home games this season the Suns averaged over 112 points per game and San Antonio is not the great defensive team that they were in the title runs years earlier this decade. Counting the playoffs and the regular season Phoenix has scored at least 100 points in ten of the last eleven home games and only four times all season did the Suns fail to reach triple-digits. While the series with Dallas was lower scoring, the Spurs were not nearly as strong defensively on the road as Dallas topped 100 points in two of the three home games. For the season the Spurs allowed nearly 96 points per game while scoring nearly 97 points per game and this Spurs lineup does not fit many of the past perceptions of this team. While both teams were strong 'under' teams in the regular season and so far in the playoffs, this price is very favorable to the 'over' and the regular season meetings between these teams should be telling about how this game plays out.
1* Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 192.5
Boston and Cleveland are considered strong defensive teams but neither was that dominant this season. Both teams averaged allowing over 95 points per game, which would nearly hit this total should those numbers hold up. Those averages of course include many games against weak offensive teams while Boston and Cleveland have both proven to be among the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland scored nearly 103 points per game in the regular season and through six playoff games the Cavaliers have not been held below 96 points. Game 1 of this series barely cleared the total, going over by just two points, but the fourth quarter was extremely low-scoring. Boston and Cleveland were on pace to go well 'over' the total until just 37 points were scored in the final frame. Only eight 3-point shots were made in the game and there were not a great amount of free throws. Boston also struggled with turnovers which took away several scoring opportunities. While the game was extremely close for most of the fourth quarter the Cavaliers took over with a couple of big shots and the Celtics were never in a position where fouling late in the game would have been advantageous. In a playoff setting that is somewhat rare in a competitive game and usually can account for a bump in the fourth quarter numbers. Boston is no where close to the defensive team that led to the title run in 2008 and in eight of the last nine road games the Celtics have allowed at least 98 points. All signs point to another 'over' in game 2 of this series and with the close call in game 1 this total has been minimally adjusted.
Scott Rickenbach
10* Boston vs Los Angeles Angels OVER
Both teams are happy to be in a new locale as the Angels just got swept at Detroit over the weekend while the Red Sox were also swept at Baltimore – with two of the losses coming in extra innings! Speaking of sweeps, the Angels swept the Red Sox out of the playoffs last fall. The Angels play with extra confidence here at Fenway Park as a result. However, the Red Sox always have an extra edge at home and we expect them to pound Joe Saunders in this start. The Angels southpaw is off to a very tough start and is having trouble finding his balance of command and movement with his pitches according to manager Mike Scioscia. That’s not good news as Saunders now faces a Red Sox team that was starting to hit their stride on offense in their most recent home stand.
Boston has scored six runs or more in four of their last six home games. They’ll look to take advantage of Saunders who has struggled to a 1-4 record and a 5.74 ERA so far this season. Though the Red Sox are turning to a starter tonight who has much better numbers so far this season, we’re not sold on Clay Buchholz enjoying success in this match-up. The Red Sox right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and a .319 BAA in his career outings against the Angels. Also, Buchholz has an 8.56 ERA in his three career May outings. After some rain moves through the Boston area early Monday, the skies are expected to clear and the winds should be blowing out to either center or right field for this match-up after this weather front moves through Monday. It all helps set the stage for an absolute slugfest in this one. Kevin Youkolis is expected to be back in the Red Sox lineup tonight after missing yesterday’s game. Also, the Red Sox are 3-0 to the over this season when they are a home favorite of 150 to 175. Play OVER the total in Boston as a *10* Top Play selection.
Ben Burns
AL Best Bet - Indians
Situational Mismatch - Reds
Personal Fav - Cavs
Main Event - Cavs Under
I have to head out guys but mostly everything is up. If you see something please post it except the nobody from pregame or Docs. Thanks and sorry.
WAYNE ROOT
4* MILLIONAIRE Boston Celtics +6
6* BILLIONAIRE SA Spurs +4