Larry Ness
10* Orlando -8
8* Chicago -11.5
Wunderdog
Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -11.5
The Chicago Bulls were not in the conversation at the beginning of the season for top honors in the NBA. But here they are opening vs. Indiana as the top seed with their NBA best 62-20 mark on the season. The Bulls were an impressive 36-5 at home on the season. The Bulls closed the season with nine straight wins. But some are looking at the fact they were 0-5 ATS down the stretch as a favorite of 9 or more, and may be deterred by the big number here. I'm not. Unlike the regular season, big playoffs favorites of 10 or more in this round own a 31-19 ATS mark. The Pacers are in the playoffs by default as they are not a playoff-caliber team at 37-45. Teams that win less than 40 games that play in the postseason are 4-14 ATS and 0-7 ATS as a double digit dog. Chicago covers this one.
Baltimore at Cleveland
Pick: Under 8
It is hard to believe, although it is early, the Baltimore Orioles are a .500 team, and the Cleveland Indians are atop the AL Central with a 9-4 mark. The Indians have gotten great pitching both from their starters that rank No. 9 in MLB, as well as their pen which ranks No. 8. The Orioles have had difficulty swinging the bats outside the friendly confines of Camden Yards, and have now played UNDER to an 18-7-1 road mark in their last 26. The Indians aren't as potent vs. right-hand pitching which has led them to a 25-12-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 38 at home facing a right0handed starter. This one comes in UNDER.
Chip Chirimbes
Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -11½
The Indiana Pacers qualified with the worst record of all playoff teams finishing eight games under .500 at 37-45. The Chicago Bulls of course finished with the No. One overall record with 62 wins and most likely have the MVP and Coach of the Year. Chicago is 7-2 Against the points in their last nine meetings while the Pacers have 'covered only 3 of their last 13 against the NBA Central.
Jimmy Boyd
5* Hawks +8.5
3* Bulls -11.5
4* Yankees
Stan Lisowski
3* Orlando -8.5
The Hawks are only 5-19 vs. the line in the first road game of a playoff series while they are a miserable 27% spread prop as a post season road dog their past 60 games in that roll. Home squads in this price range went 7-3 last season.
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Magic
Billionaire - 76ers
Larry Ness
10* Orlando -8
8* Chicago -11.5
9* New York Yankees -117
9* San Diego Padres -142
9* Los Angeles Dodgers -142
ATS Lock Club
Orioles
Red Sox Over 9
Tigers
Rays
Keith Glantz
100* Mavericks
25* Hawks
100* Braves
25* Orioles
Mike Lineback
Bulls
Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Boston (-210) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)
Boston has won 16 of the last 21 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games and they have also won 28 of the last 40 games when playing as a home favorite of -200 or higher. Boston pitcher, Josh Beckett has won 10 of the last 11 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or more and he has an ERA of 2.08 this season.
Play Chicago White Sox (-175) over Los Angeles Angels (Bonus)
Play Colorado (-170) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)
Ben Burns
10* Atlanta / Orlando Over
10* Dallas / Portland Under
10* Dodgers
10* Flyers
8* Detroit / Phoenix Under
8* Chicago / Indiana Over
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Miami -10
4 Units Portland +5
Mr East
Mavericks
Ben Burns
10* Atlanta / Orlando Over
10* Dallas / Portland Under
10* Dodgers
10* Flyers
8* Detroit / Phoenix Under
8* Chicago / Indiana Over
I'm playing on Detroit and Phoenix to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their first game produce six goals. It easily could have been lower-scoring though and I expect that to be the case this afternoon. The 4-2 loss in Game 1 was just the 4th time in the Coyotes last 16 games that they allowed an opposing team to score more than three goals against them. In each of the previous three cases, the Coyotes' next game produced five or fewer combined goals. After a 4-3 loss vs. Vancouver on 3/8, the Coyotes won their next game by a score of 3-0. After a 4-1 loss vs. San Jose on 3/26, the Coyotes next game was a 2-1 victory at Dallas. Most recently, after a 4-3 loss vs. Colorado on 4/1, the Coyotes next game was a 3-2 loss vs. the Kings. True, the Wings have now played three consecutive 'overs.' However, the UNDER is 6-3 the last nine times that they were in that situation. Even with the Game 1 result, the Coyotes have still seen the UNDER go 8-3-1 their last dozen games with nine of those finishing with five or fewer combined goals. I expect those stats to improve here.
I'm playing on Chicago and Indiana OVER the total. I respect the Bulls' defense. Being able to shut down opposing teams is a major reason why Chicago finished with the #1 seed. However, I don't have the same respect for the Indiana defense. The Pacers are mediocre on that side of the ball, at best. Also, I do respect both offenses. All that said, I feel that this number, which has come down from its opener, will prove to be too low. Speaking of the O/U line being "too low," note that this O/U number is lower than the O/U lines were for any of the four regular season meetings. Given the low number, currently in the high 180s, note that Pacers have seen the OVER go 3-1 the past couple of seasons when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. During the same stretch, the Bulls have seen the OVER go 9-6-1 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. Looking closer at some stats and we find that Chicago games average 189.9 points per game on the season and 190 here at Chicago. Meanwhile, Indiana games were far higher-scoring. They averaged 201.1 points overall and 199.3 per game on the road. Take an average of the Bulls/Pacers games overall and one gets 195.5. Looking at the season series and we find that the games gradually got higher-scoring, with each consecutive game. The first, which was back in December, saw only 165 combined points scored. The next, a mid-January game, produced 185. The most recent two were significantly higher-scoring though, as they finished with combined scores of 199 and 223, respectively. True, the last of those games, a 115-108 Indiana victory on 3/18, did go to Overtime. However, there were still 204 points scored in regulation. The Bulls have scored a minimum of 97 points in eight of their last nine games. The Pacers have scored at least 109 in three of their last four. The Pacers have seen the OVER go 8-4 the last dozen times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have seen the OVER go 9-3 their last dozen playoff games. I expect the Bulls to hit triple-digits here and for the Pacers to provide enough of their own for the final combined score to again finish above the relatively low number.
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I played on the "under" in the first game of this series. The O/U line was 5.5 and the score finished 1-0, in favor of Buffalo. That result has caused the O/U line to dip from 5.5 down to five. Why am I talking about the total? Because the Flyers are a terrific 10-2 (+5.8) the past few seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of five. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. The Flyers didn't play badly in Game 1. In fact, they had a 35-25 edge in shots on goal. Yes, Buffalo's Ryan Miller is a world class goalie. However, no goalie is unbeatable forever - and a similar effort like the Flyers gave in Game 1 should result in goals. As Flyers center Danny Briere noted after the game. "There will be nights like that. If we keep playing like we did tonight, we'll be in good shape." This is a highly resilient Flyers team. Keep in mind that they came back from a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern semifinals to beat Boston last season. A 1-0 deficit is certainly not going to cause them to panic. It should, however, cause them to bring their "A Game." While the Sabres have been the "hotter" team in recent weeks, I look for the Flyers to be the "hungrier" team here, as they bounce back and improve to 10-6 the last 16 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game.
I'm playing on Atlanta and Orlando to finish OVER the total. This game has the lowest O/U line of this weekend's NBA games. With all due respect to the defenses, I believe it will prove to be too low. I'm aware that these teams played a number of low-scoring games against each other during the regular season. I'm also aware that one could find plenty of "under" trends, to support a case for a low-scoring game. However, its important to remember that those "under" trends almost all came vs. much higher O/U lines than this one. As for the low-scoring regular season games, keep in mind that the O/U lines have been progressively coming down for each and every meeting. Consider that the first meeting here at Orlando, which was way back in November, had an O/U of 194. Yes, that one stayed below the total. However, it still produced 182 combined points, a 93-89 Orlando victory. Looking back further and we find that this is the lowest O/U line of any of Atlanta's last 20 visits to Orlando. You may recall that these teams also met in the playoffs last season, the Eastern Conf. sem-finals. The two games here at Orlando both had O/U lines in the low 190s. They finished with 185 and 210 combined points. While the Magic pride themselves on being a strong defensive team, they'd still prefer to push the pace and for today's game to be higher-scoring than were the regular season meetings. When asked about the low scores vs. Atlanta during the regular season, point guard Jameer Nelson was quoted as saying: "That's not us. We want to be high 90s, low 100s. If we could score 200, that would be great." For the season, Orlando games averaged 193.3 points. That number did dip here in Florida, but games here still averaged a healthy 190 combined points. The Hawks saw their games average 190.9 points, both at home and on the road. The Magic saw their opening playoff game here last postseason produce 187 combined points. The previous season, their first game of the postseason saw 198 scored. Since 2007, the Hawks have played here 11 times. Ten of those games produced greater than 180 points. I expect this one to do the same.
I'm playing on Dallas and Portland to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw three of four regular season games finish above the number. However, the two games here at Dallas (one over, one under) still averaged only 183 points, thanks to a very low-scoring (84-81 Dallas victory on 1/4) contest the last time that the teams played here. I expect another defensive affair here and feel that the number is generously high. Note that this O/U number is actually higher than the O/U lines for the last two regular season meetings between these teams. Typically, it goes the other way, with playoff totals being set a little lower. Looking back further into the series history and we find that the UNDER is a profitable 10-3 the last 13 times that the Blazers traveled to Dallas, dating back to the start of the 2004 season. The Mavericks closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak. They held each of the last three opponents to 90 or fewer points in regulation. While their final game (vs. New Orleans) was high-scoring, a 121-89 victory, note that that the UNDER is a lucrative 15-6 the last 21 times that the Mavs were off a double-digit victory. The Blazers got lit up for 110 points at Golden State in their final game. They didn't play their stars in that game though. Roy, Aldridge, Camby and Wallace were all scratched. In other words, they didn't take it too seriously. That said, its still worth noting that the UNDER is 29-18 the past few seasons, when the Blazers were off a game in which they allowed 185 or more points. Perhaps more importantly, note that they'd held each of their previous three opponents to less than 90 points. Looking back further and we find that, prior to the final at Golden State, the Blazers had held 19 of their previous 20 opponents to 101 or fewer points (They also gave up 108 at Golden State on 4/5.) with 17 of those 20 opponents finishing with "double-digits" in scoring. The Blazers saw the UNDER go 17-12 this season, when listed as underdogs. That includes a 5-2 UNDER mark when they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The UNDER is 8-4 their last dozen playoff games and I look for another low-scoring affair tonight.
I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Cardinals come in as the hotter team and they've taken the first two games of this series in convincing fashion. As the baseball saying goes, however, "momentum is the next day's starting pitcher..." In this case, I expect the Dodgers to have an edge on the mound and I look for that to ultimately be the deciding factor in the game. While the Cards' bats have admittedly been hot, the majority of their recent success has come against right-handers. They're just 1-2 vs. southpaw starters, hitting .221 in those games. In fact, dating back to last season, the Cards are an ugly 6-14 their last 20 against left-handed starters. They'll be facing a good one tonight. Kershaw gets the call and he's off to an excellent start. Through three outings, he's gone 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA. In those three games he has an impressive 24 K's to go along with only four walks. Kershaw began the season by outpitching Lincecum. That was his only home start and he tossed seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits. He had 9 K's and 1 walk. His next start was his "worst" and he allowed just three runs in six innings, at Colorado. He had 8 K's with one walk but didn't receive any run support. Last time out, Kershaw "bounced back" to again toss 6 2/3 shutout innings. Note that he's 2-1 with an excellent 2.95 ERA in seven career outings against the Cardinals. He allowed three earned runs or less in six of those seven starts including all four here at LA. The Dodgers were 3-1 in those games, including 2-0 the last two. In his lone start against the Cards here last season, Kershaw outpitched Wainwright en route to earning a 4-3 LA victory. McClellan is off a solid start for the Cards. However, the 11 baserunners (4 walks, 7 hits) that he allowed in six innings (1.833 WHIP) last time out doesn't bode well for him vs. a hungry LA lineup. Note that McClellan is a converted reliever and this will be just his third start. The Cards enter the weekend with a dismal 6-16 (-8.2) record the last 22 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During the same stretch, the Dodgers were an outstanding 38-19 (+12) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Even with losses in the first two games, the Dodgers are still 5-2 the last seven times that they hosted the Cards. They're also now 5-1 in Kershaw's last six starts. Kershaw has allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of his last 20 starts here. I expect him to continue his strong start, outpitching and outlasting McClellan en route to a much-needed victory for the home team.