KIKI SPORTS
3 Units White Sox -130
1 Unit Miami Heat +4
1 Unit Phillies -115
Rated Picks
3 Units Chicago Bulls +11.5
3 Units Utah Jazz +5
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Atlanta Hawks -8.5
3 Units Boston Celtics -3.5
Lenny Del Genio
Denver
Astros
Jay McNeil
50* Hawks -8.5
Ben Burns
7* Buffalo Sabres
Cal Sports
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year - Miami
MTi Sports
4'* Hawks -8.5
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Braves +105
Atlanta Hawks -8.5
Jeff Benton
20 Dime: HAWKS
5 DIME: BULLS
Hawks
I kind of feel bad for the Milwaukee Bucks, who were the feel-good story of the NBA’s second half, winning 30 of their final 44 games to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2006. With a couple of weeks left in the regular season, I had the Bucks pegged as a team that could make some legit postsaason noise. Then center Andrew Bogut went down with a series of season-ending injuries to his shoulder, arm and hand, and for all intents and purposes, Milwaukee’s playoff chances went into the toilet.
Yeah, I know Milwaukee “bucked” up and won five of seven down the stretch without Bogut (including a victory over the Suns in the game Bogut got hurt). But first off, that was the regular season; this is the playoffs. Secondly, look at who the Bucks beat: Other than the Suns, they defeated the Bulls, Nets and 76ers, plus a meaningless 11-point win in Boston in Wednesday’s regular-season finale when the Celtics rested a bunch of guys. The two losses without Bogut came in back-to-back home games to the fully-manned Celtics (105-90) and these Hawks (104-96).
Look inside that loss to Atlanta and you’ll see that Milwauksee got six points and 10 rebounds out of Bogut’s replacement (Kurt Thomas), while Hawks center Al Horford had 13 points and 12 rebounds in just 25 minutes (he was in foul trouble). In two previous regular-season meetings with Atlanta when Bogut was in the lineup, the Bucks won 98-95 as a six-point home underdog and took the Hawks to overtime, losing 106-102 and covering as an 8½-point ‘dog. In those two contests, Bogut had a combined 23 points and 20 rebounds, while Horford had 29 points and 22 rebounds. So it was pretty much a push. The point is that Tim Thomas or whomever else Bucks coach Scott Skiles sticks in the post isn’t going to be able to play Horford even-up, or anything close to it.
Few other things to consider about this matchup: While the Bucks were a spread-covering machine in the regular season (no team was better), the playoffs are a different beast. Besides, most of those spread-covers came with Bogut on the court. What’s more important to me is the fact that Milwaukee was a sub-.500 road team this year (13-28), while the Hawks went 34-7 at Philips Arena, including a rock-solid 25-16 ATS.
Also, the Hawks ended an eight-year postseason drought two years ago and since then they’ve played seven home playoff games, going 6-1 SU and ATS with an average margin of victory of 11.8 ppg. That included a 3-0 SU and ATS run at home against the eventual-champion Celtics two years ago. In fact, the winner has covered the spread at a 17-0-1 clip in Atlanta’s playoff games the last two years.
Lastly, the favorite has dominated the Hawks-Bucks series recently, going 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. And in the last 15 meetings, the SU winner is 11-3-1 ATS. That means whatever team prevails in this game almost certainly will cover the number – I’m 100 percent confident that team will be the Hawks!
Bulls
One of the things I love to do in the playoffs, regardless of sport, is back underdogs that needed to fight, scratch and claw in the final weeks of the regular season to earn their postseason slot when those teams are facing opponents that put it on cruise control down the stretch. And this matchup fits that philosophy to a tee.
Chicago was in win-or-go-home mode for much of the final two weeks of the season. And although it was ugly at times (including an inexcusable loss at the Nets with just three games to go), the Bulls got the job done. They followed up the Nets loss with three straight wins and covers, including a blowout road win against the team (Toronto) that was fighting them for the final playoff spot. That three-game winning streak was part of an overall 10-4 SU run to end the regular season. And that 10-4 run included a 5-1 road record (only loss was in that a letdown situation at New Jersey 24 hours after a huge one-point win over these Cavs).
The Bulls were also a moneymaker over the final month of the campaign, going 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight on the road. The Cavs, on the other hand, sent people to the poorhouse all season long. They ended the year 38-43-1 ATS, including 16-25 ATS in their home building. And as a favorite of nine points or more this year, the Cavs are just 12-19 ATS, going 2-6 ATS in their last eight when laying 11 points or more.
I know I just stated above that the playoffs are a different beast and you shouldn’t put too much stock into regular-season trends, and I stand by that. But while Chicago is playoff-ready, the Cavaliers haven’t taken part in a meaningful game in two weeks, and LeBron James hasn’t played a single minute in the last four games (he last suited up on April 6). Obviously, James is such a freak athletically that the layoff likely won’t affect his ability to get to the rim and such. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he struggled with his outside shot and his free throws.
Two final points to make: These teams split their four-game season series, including a one-point Bulls win at Cleveland (as an 11½-point underdog) when LeBron played. And the ‘dog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Finally, last year the Bulls went into the playoffs as a huge underdog against the defending-champion Celtics and they took them to seven games, including a Game 1 overtime victory in Boston (Chicago cashed in the first three road games in that series).
Do I see another Game 1 upset by Chicago here? I’d be shocked, honestly. But can the Bulls be competitive? Absolutely, especially since all the pressure is on LeBron and the Cavs. Grab the points.
Billy Coleman
4* Minn/Bos Over 185
3* Bos -4
3* Minn -1.5 +110
3* Hou +115
3* LAD +140
5* Buff/Bos Under 5
3* Wash -1.5 -110
Mike Cannon
30 Dime Bulls
10 Dime Heat
10 Dime Reds -1.5
BIG AL
HIGH ROLLER - Atlanta -8.5
AFTERNOON NBA WINNER - Cleveland -11
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - Cavaliers -11
MTi Sports
4* KC +168
4* Stl -104
4* Fla +107
4* Wash +145