Eddie Roman
ATLANTA HAWKS -4.5 over Milwaukee (First Half)
Matt Fargo
10* Cavs -11
9* Celtics -4
9* Nuggets -5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
SEATTLE MARINERS +123
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home dog:
Justin Verlander continues to struggle; for the second straight game he had a rough outing, but somehow the Tigers managed to pull out the 9-8 victory over Cleveland on Sunday.
Verlander got pulled one batter into the sixth after giving up six earned runs on five hits and three walks.
I truly believe this is a sign (a bad one!) of things to come for the Tigers "ace".
In the other dugout: Ryan Rowland-Smith has pitched well so far this year; he allowed only three hits in seven innings last time out.
Last year he was 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd; a decent 3-2 with a 3.32 ERA in "night games".
Bottom line: Seattle's bats have been on fire and I believe that will continue against the struggling Verlander; the M's pounded out a season high-tying 12 hits and won 11-3 over the Tigers yesterday.
Franklin Gutierrez went 3 for 5 with a season-high three RBIs, Ichiro Suzuki, Jose Lopez and Ken Griffey Jr. each had two hits and the Mariners scored their most runs since an 11-2 victory over Tampa Bay on Aug. 9.
While Seattle is batting .323 during its three-game win streak, opponents are hitting just .167 against Mariners’ starters during this stretch.
We're getting good value on a home team against a struggling pitcher; *10* DOG OF THE MONTH on the SEATTLE MARINERS!
Tony George
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -115
Cant figure out this line, but getting Philly at home at this price is a gift anytime. Philly has scored 5 runs or more in 8 of its 9 games this season and while the books are showing a ton of respect for Nolasco for the Marlins, I look for Jamie Moyor to snap out of it at home and for the Phillies bats to fire up a win with run support here. Bottom line, Phillys bats are hitting over .315 as a team against right handers and left handers combined and the Marlins bullpen has a 1.58 WHIP and that many guys on base with a home team who can light it up is a take at this number. Rarely do you get a team who is 8-2 at home against a beatable team at under -120 Play 1 unit on Philly.
Lenny Del Genio
DENVER NUGGETS -5
The Nuggets host the Jazz in Game 1 of this Western Conference first round series. The Nuggets are the fourth seed while the Jazz ended up with the number five spot. The Nuggets get the home court advantage due to their 3-1 record versus the Jazz in the regular season. It’s been a trying season for the Nuggets as their coach George Karl was diagnosed with cancer. They had a big lull about four weeks ago when they dropped five of six games. However, they bounced back winning five of their last seven games. The Nugget backers are broke as Denver was a dismal 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games. The Jazz get into the playoffs again, but are they really a contender. Don’t think so. However, they were a very good team to wager on during the regular season as they compiled a 49-30 ATS record. They made money away from home posting a 23-17 ATS record (21-20 SU). As we mentioned the Nuggets won the season series 3-1 with the Jazz salvaging the final game of the series, a 116-106 win in Utah in the beginning of February. However, in that game two of the Nugget stars Billips and Anthony did not play. They also caught the Nuggets off a 126-113 win over the Lakers in LA the night before. Utah won’t be so fortunate tonight as the Nuggets are at full strength. Also, Utah’s Boozer is a bit banged up with bruised ribs. This should be a competitive series, except in Game 1. The Nuggets put up 110 points on this home floor and we look for an easy win and cover in this opening game. Oddsmaker Mismatch Play on Denver.
THE BOOOOJ
15 Units Milwaukee +8.5
Alatex
Colo - 115
KELSO
10 Units Bulls +11
5 Units Bucks +8.5
5 Units Heat +4
5 Units Nuggets -5
Marc Lawrence
Denver -5
The Nuggets host the Jazz in a Western Conference playoff clash in Denver with terrific winning support in their favor. For openers, the Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in the playoffs when taking on an opponent off an ATS loss of 15 or more points in its previous game. In addition, Utah is 3-14 Su and 6-11 ATS away in Game One of a playoff series, including 0-5 SU and ATS when off a home game and facing a sub .720 opponent. The clincher, though, is this Awesome Angle from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any NBA home team in Game One of the opening round of the playoffs off a a loss versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss. That's because these home teams are 9-0 SU and ATS in this role since 1991. That being said, we recommend a 3-unit play on Denver.
Mike Lineback
Celtics -4
Ben Burns
10* Hawks Under
10* Cavs
STEVE BUDIN
25 Dime - Denver
25 Dime - Denver Series
Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach
Game: Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics Apr 17 2010 4:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Oakland vs Baltimore @ 4:05 PM ET – Duchscherer vs Guthrie – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Not surprisingly, this total dropped to a 7.5 after opening up at an 8. Both of these teams have been “under teams” so far this season. Also, neither teams’ numbers on offense is likely to impress anyone either. That said, why are we on the over here? Two keys! Line value and starting pitchers! To get a 7.5 in an American League afternoon game played in sunny, mild weather is value. To have two inconsistent starting pitchers on the mound adds even more value. Jeremy Guthrie shows a solid 4.05 ERA to the betting markets so far this season. However, he hasn’t been as impressive as you might think. Guthrie has been hit at a .308 clip so far this season and he now must deal with a team that’s given him a lot of trouble in recent meetings. He’s made five career starts against the A’s and the first two went very well but the last three were a different story altogether! Guthrie has been hammered by the Athletics and compiled a 12.27 ERA against them in his past three meetings with Oakland. Keep in mind, the A’s have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last four games. In fact, Oakland’s last ten overall games have seen them average 5 runs per game. In their last five home games the A’s have averaged 10.4 hits per game. In an afternoon game against a pitcher they’ve pounded often, look for Oakland to enjoy continued success on offense.
For the Baltimore offense, the picture appears much bleaker offensively but we like their chances against Justin Duchscherer of the A’s. The Oakland right-hander missed last season due to an elbow injury and also was treated for clinical depression. Yes, he’s a prior All-Star but we’re not sure he can be trusted yet in terms of his psyche. Keep in mind, the mental aspect of the game is so important for pitchers and we saw this last night with Zach Greinke of the Royals. We used the over in that game as our top play and Greinke had a rough outing and the Twins got the over all by themselves in that game. Greinke had anxiety issues in the past and when he struggles it tends to “snowball” on him as a result. That is what we expect here with Duchscherer as well. The A’s righty had a real smooth outing at Seattle in his last start as he never faced any real trouble. However, in his only other home outing this season he also faced the Mariners and it was a rough start as he allowed five earned runs on seven hits and two walks in less than six innings of work. His ERA in day games in 2008 (his last season in the majors) was more than two full runs higher than what he produced in night games.
Duchscherer is facing an Orioles team that has not hit well in the clutch so far this season but yesterday was essentially their worst performance of the season on offense as they left just two men on base. The O’s had previously left an average of nearly 8 men on base per game. Against Duchscherer, who can get rattled pitching out of the stretch, look for the Orioles to cash in more of their opportunities. And with the A’s scoring well again plus the low total we are dealing with here, it won’t take much to get this game over the total…and that’s value. Play OVER the total in Oakland as a *10* Top Play selection.
ANTHONY REDD
40 Dime - Hawks
CRAIG DAVIS
50 DIME Denver Nuggets
15 DIME Chicago White Sox