Larry Ness
10* VCU/Butler Under
10* Kentucky
Kelso
50 Units VCU
5 Units UConn
BIG AL
Butler
UConn
Jimmy Boyd
5* Kentucky -2
3* Cincinnati
Power Play Wins
Butler -2.5
David Malinsky
4* TORONTO over MINNESOTA
When all of our internal counting was done at the end of the 2010 campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays had contributed more to the portfolio than any other team, with the markets never catching up to just how well they were performing. When you go 85-77 while having the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox as one-third of your schedule (those teams were a combined 74 games over .500), you did a lot of things right. Yet 2011 will apparently start the same way, based on this price point.
The Blue Jays could have been even better LY, but got disappointing campaigns out of veterans Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. So there could not have been a better sign in spring training than the collective .398 those two turned in, and in last night’s easy win over the Twins they combined for 3-7 with three rbi’s. The other major positive from the spring was Kyle Drabek showing the confidence that he is ready for The Show, with 14 K’s vs. only one W over a 2-0/2.81 showing. He has a chance to be special.
Meanwhile this price does also not reflect properly both the Home/Away bias for Minnesota overall, or Francisco Liriano in particular. Even with that change in home venues the Twin pattern stayed consistent LY, making it a run of 155-89 at home vs. 114-131 on the road the last 3+ seasons. We use that time frame because that is also the arc for Liriano’s career after returning from injury, and in those three seasons it has been a 3.45 ERA at home over 208.2 frames vs. 5.43 on the road over 195.2. Note that it is not a case of one or two years overly impacting the numbers – in every one of his Major League seasons his road ERA has been more than a full run higher than at home. And it is also not a case of stadiums having too much impact or balls falling at a different rate – there is a clear confidence issue, best exhibited by a count of 200 K’s vs. 50 W’s at home in that span, vs. a split of just 190 vs. 100 on the road. With his W’s per 9 rate nearly double on he road (4.60 vs. 2.37), there are clear issues at play, which the markets are not pricing properly.
2 Minute Warning
VCU
Al DeMarco
Kentucky
Anthony Redd
UConn
Brett Atkins
VCU
Chuck O'Brien
Butler ML
Craig Davis
Kentucky ML
Derek Mancini
VCU
Jay McNeil
VCU
Joel Tyson
Butler
Matt Rivers
Kentucky ML
Steve Budin
Kentucky
Trace Adams
Butler
Red Sox
Al DeMarco
10 Dime Kentucky
Off the top of my head, I find it hard to believe any team has produced in payback games like Kentucky has this season. In the regular season they sought and got revenge against Georgia, Vandy and Florida - and you remember they beat the hell out of the Gators in the third go-round in the SEC title game. Speaking of the SEC Tournament, they extracted a pound of flesh against Ole Miss and Alabama. And here in the Big Dance, they've done the same versus West Virginia and North Carolina. That's a 7-0 record in payback and the revenge games have one thing in common: they were played from the last week of January forward, signifying the maturation of a Kentucky lineup that features three freshmdn among its top players. And that doesn't include the development of center Josh Harrellson, whose become a real force down the homestretch and especially in the Dance.
You know the deal: Kentucky was crushed by Connecticut 84-67 at the Maui Invitational in the season's fifth game. And note that two games later the Wildcats lost at North Carolina.
Kemba Walker was superb for the Huskies in the first meeting, scoring 29 points to key a U.Conn attack that shot 58% from the field. By comparison, Kentucky's Brandon Knight missed 12 of 15 field goals, Doran Lamb scored five points and Harrehllson was held scoreless in 25 minutes.
Fast forward time for Kentucky. Knight, averaging 17.3 points on the season, is only shooting 35% from the field in the Tournament, but he put daggers in the upset bids of Princeton and Ohio State and nailed five three's versus UNC. Lamb averaged 12.3 points this year. Harrellson has been a one-man inside force for the Wildcats, averaging 15 points and 8.8 rebounds in the Dance on 61% shooting, more than holding his own against OSU's Jared Sullinger and UNC's Ty Zeller.
What has changed for Connecticut since the first meeting? Perhaps Walker is even better? What can you say about a guy averaging 26.8 points, 5.3 rebound and 6.8 assists in the Big Dance after carrying his Huskies to five wins in five days to capture the Big East Tournament. He's gotten tremendous support from Jeremy Lamb; the freshman swingman has averaged 18.3 points on 59% shooting as U.Conn has advancrd to the Final Four. And those nine games in 19 days for the Huskies? Lamb scored in double figures in each of them.
Here's one key negative, however, for U.Conn. In the Maui Invitational clash 6-9 center Alex Oriakhi had the game of his career with 18 points and 11 rebounds. But for the season he averaged just a shade under 10 points. So the question is whether Kentucky's Terrence Jones, who scored 24 points in 27 foul-plagued minutes, can get support from his peers and stay in the game. I think he does as Harrellson will certainly do better than being held scoreless in 25 minutes as he was in the first meeting. Same goes for Knight, who won't shoot 3-for-15. And even if Walker has his usual big game, it's hard to imagine the Huskies shooting 58% from the field against a more seasoned Kentucky team that's won 10 in a row with eight of those victories coming outside of Lexington.
Brett Atkins
50 Dime VCU
Both of these teams has battled its way to the national semifinals and now both prohibitive underdogs have to face off against each other. It does guarantee one of them will be in Monday’s title game, and that one is going to be VCU. The Rams were told they didn’t belong and were forced to play in a First Four game. Well they won that one and have been winning ever since. They’ve hit 44 percent of their three-pointers in the tourney and in three of the games they hit 12 long-range bombs. Their big men are going to cause trouble for Butler tonight and they will get star center Matt Howard in foul trouble when he has to go outside and defend VCU’s Jamie Skeen as he can go out and hit the three or go inside and post up. That is a matchup that has a big advantage for the Rams. VCU is on ATS runs of 6-0 in non-conference play and 9-0 in the tourney, all as an underdog. They are ‘dogs again and I’m going to grab the points with them, but I expect them to win this one and head to Monday’s title tilt.
Chuck O'Brien
75 Dime Butler ML
I’m quite sure those who back VCU today will start their argument with the fact that the Rams won five games to get the Final Four (the other teams won four), and they not only beat teams from the Pac-10 (USC), Big East (Georgetown), Big Ten (Purdue), ACC (Florida State) and Big 12 (Kansas), but they crushed four of those teams by double digits (the only exception was a 72-71 overtime win over Florida State; the other four victories were by an average of 14.8 ppg. Then they’ll point to the fact that Butler’s four Big Dance wins were by a total of 13 points, including three wins over Old Dominion (60-58), Pitt (71-70) and Florida (74-71) that weren’t secured until the final possession. All of that is valid. Now here’s my counterargument: Butler’s ability to find a way to win close games is much more impressive to me than VCU’s bevy of blowouts.
Seriously, the Bulldogs have a knack for coming up big when the pressure is at its zenith, and this goes back to last year’s run to the championship game, when they beat Murray State by two, Syracuse by four, Kansas State by seven and Michigan State by two before losing to Duke by two when a half-court, game-winning shot at the horn was off by about an inch. Well, I think we’re headed for another close game today, and if I’m right, I certainly like Butler’s chances to come through in crunch time more than I do VCU, which is just 3-3 in its last six games decided by five points or less.
I also like Butler’s chances to do what no opponent of VCU’s has done in this tournament, and that’s defend the perimeter. The Rams are shooting a scorching 43.8% from three-point range (which is identical to their overall field-goal percentage in the tournament). Well, going back to the 59-44 Horizon League championship game win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Butler has held its last five opponents to just 28.7% from beyond the arc (not to mention 59.4 ppg). For the season, the Bulldogs allow just 32.4% shooting on three-pointers.
Finally, I know a lot of people breaking down this matchup don’t believe Final Four experience matters much, but I certainly don’t share that opinion. I think Butler’s run to the title game last year will be a huge advantage for the Bulldogs. So, too, will the five days the Bulldogs have had to get ready for this game (coach Brad Stevens has lost just once the last two years when having that much prep time). Bottom line: I love Butler’s inside-outside combination of Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack, I love Stevens as both a tactician and a calming influence on his players, I love Butler’s rebounding prowess, I love the Bulldogs’ tournament pedigree (9-1 SU and ATS the last two years; 17-5 ATS last 22 tourney games), and I love that they come into this game with the longest winning streak in the country (13 in a row).
They’ll run that winning streak to 14 by frustrating VCU’s shooters, by playing at a slow, methodical pace and by making free throws down the stretch. It won’t be easy (it never is with Butler), but the Bulldogs (15-2 ATS last 17 neutral-site games) pull this one out 67-62.
Craig Davis
100 Dime Kentucky ML
Much like my Packers Moneyline play in the Super Bowl, I'm not taking any chances on getting beat by a hook or a late half-court heave when I know Kentucky is the right side of this game versus the Huskies.
This line could fluctuate anywhere from -2 to -3 today, so get it as early as you can to save a little juice when wagering. Obviously we'd rather have the money line on -2 rather than -3, but it honestly shouldn't matter because Kentucky is the right side of this game for several reasons... but the #1 reason the Wildcats are going to win this game is DEFENSE.
You can have your Butlers and your Richmonds all you want... when it comes to "in your face" man-to-man defense, I'll take Kentucky all day. What team do you know can hold Ohio State to 60 points and then hold North Carolina (two of the highest scoring teams in the nation) to just 69 points in back-to-back games?
What team do you know that can not only play this solid man-to-man defense against two offensive powerhouses, not only limiting each team well below their average but NOT getting in foul trouble? Remember, the Wildcats aren't very deep and require a LOT of their top six or seven guys, but they've been doing just fine with this system and I don't see it stopping tonight.
Defensively the Wildcats have held Princeton to 57 points, West Virginia to 63, OSU to 60, and North Carolina to 69 in this tournament. Before that the 'Cats held Ole Miss, Alabama and Florida to 66, 58, and 54 points, respectively. To wind down the regular season, Kentucky allowed 58 points at Tennessee, 66 points to Vandy, and 68 points to Florida (all wins). You have to go back to February 23 AT Arkansas when you can find the last time the 'Cats allowed anything in the 70s (77), and the only reason the Hogs were able to score 77 is because the game went into overtime. Before that game Kentucky allowed just 59 to South Carolina.
You get my point... this defense is the best defense in the country and will prove it again tonight as they will do whatever they can to get in Kemba Walker's grill and NOT let him have one of those nights. And that's the thing about UConn if they don't get early production from Walker, they panic. It hasn't happened in quite some time, and that's why they've been on this tremendous winning streak, but if there's any chance for it to happen it would be tonight against Brandon Knight and Kentucky.
The Wildcats don't have one star like the Huskies, and at any time one or more of them can get hot. I actually expect Terrence Jones to get hot today for two reasons. First off, he's overdue. He had a great regular season but hasn't put it together yet in this tournament. Secondly, there's no one on the UConn roster that can stop him... period.
Kentucky also showed me something in that Ohio State game that I wasn't really aware of... they take really smart three-point shots and make a solid percentage of them. The 'Cats shoot 40% for the season from downtown and have hit 37% from out there in neutral site games. They don't force it, they wait till it opens up, and they hit it. Nothing against UConn because they clearly have some players who can step out and hit that shot... but they aren't in Kentucky's class in that aspect.
Yes, I realize UConn dumped on Kentucky when these two met in Maui early in the season (84-67), but I also know North Carolina did the same thing to Kentucky in the early going and look what happened last weekend. In the previous meeting, Terrence Jones was the only Wildcat who showed up, scoring 24 of his team's 67 points. Brandon Knight, a freshman, did nothing. Josh Harrelson, who was still trying to figure out his role on this team, took just one shot in 25 minutes. He was a complete non-factor... which I can guarantee won't happen tonight.
Let's also not forget in that matchup... Kentucky shot well below 40% from the field and downtown while UConn shot nearly 60% from the field and from three-point land. Again, that won't happen tonight.
The Wildcats are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams from the Big East, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Saturday games, 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Big Dance games as a favorite.
Like I said, I'm not taking any chances with a bullcrap point spread when I can just risk a little more and play the money line... to ensure a Kentucky win gives us a win.
Derek Mancini
30 Dime VCU
Keeping this one simple boys, as there really is such a thing as peaking at the perfect time and that's exactly what's happened with this VCU team. Yes, Butler owns the experience edge, but its a dangerous game using last year's results to justify a play on any team. Butler faces a couple issues that will be the diffdrence in this contest.
The first issue that arises is Jamie Skeen. I know Matt Howard gets a ton of love from the public, but the best bigman in this game is Skeen. Howard may score more ppg, but Skeen's play during the course of the Rams Cinderella run has been nothing short of spectacular. Then, you add in the red-hot sharp shooting Bradford Burgess, and you've got two of the three main components of this frenetic VCU attack. Butler will have trouble matching up with both players, which is bad news if you're a Bulldogs-backer.
Of course, the third and probably the most important component of this VCU offense is PG Joey Rodriguez. Again, Butler counterpart, Shelvin Mack, gets a lot more publicity, but overall its hard to argue with the results. Also, with Rodriguez being a little guy, it remains to be seen how the Bulldogs match up. Mack will have trouble, and if they opt for Nored, he leaves a lot to be desired on the offensive end.
The last piece of the puzzle is the public perception. Bettors seem to be waiting for that proverbial "other shoe to drop" for this VCU team, and they keep superseding expectations. What else do they have to do? Their win over Kansas was one of the most thorough ass kickings I've seen this tournament. True, there were more lopsided games, but the Rams dominated one of the best teams in the country, in every facet of the game, for the entire game (or most of it at least). I'm done doubting this VCU team and you should be too. Take VCU plus the points over Butler Saturday.
Jay McNeil
40 Dime VCU
Back with this same 11-seed I had a couple weeks back, and quite frankly, once again I am not intimidated or scared of what I'm up against.
Butler is an impressive team, back in the Final Four, yes. But VCU has humiliated the Pac 10's USC, the Big East's Georgetown, the Big Ten's Purdue, the ACC's Florida State and regional top seed Kansas.
This team has no fear, and come out playing with reckless abandon to build a lead, and then plays a stellar defense, which ranked 26th in the nation in steals per game and 15th in turnover margin, to hold the lead.
Butler has been winning furiously down the stretch, I know this.
But these are pissed off VCU Rams who had no problem coming to post-game press conferences the entire tournament and saying specifically how upset they were for being labeled as undeserving for an invite.
But I'd say after holding the likes of Southern Cal to 46 points, Georgetown to 56 points and Kansas to 61 points, the Rams have proved they belong in the dance.
Anything is possible after what I've seen over the first couple weeks, so I won't rule out an outright win. But give me the 2.5 points in this one, as it's gonna be a tight one.
Joel Tyson
40 Dime Butler
10 Dime Kentucky
40 Dime Butler
I am of the opinion that it is easier to slow a game down than it is to speed it up, and as impressed as I have been with the job Shaka Smart has done getting his Rams to this rare air, I really am more impressed with the job Brad Stevens has done getting his team back to their second straight Final Four.
Butler lost a NBA lottery pick this past season, yet is still dancing in Houston. The Bulldogs have been able to stop both the # 1 seed in the region in the Pittsburgh Panthers, and they also stopped the # 2 seed in their region in the Florida Gators, rallying from 11-points down to get the overtime outright win.
This is a team that now knows the "drill" when it comes to getting this far in the Dance, and I have to believe that with the full week to prepare for the Rams, Butler will prevail minus the points in this one.
Not going to sit here and spout off "War & Peace" to convince you that Butler is the play, but for my money the experience that the Bulldogs gathered in making it all the way to Championship Monday last year will pay dividends this year in this round.
The Bulldogs do not take any possessions off, and while the Rams can also lay claim to that this postseason, I also have a feeling VCU's torrid shooting from behind the arc is going to take a hit against the defensive-minded Bulldogs from Butler.
Gonna be a war no doubt, but I have a feeling experience wins out in this one.
Take Butler minus the points.
10 Dime Kentucky
In the nightcap, backing Kentucky to get the revenge win over Connecticut.
As I am sure you are well aware by now, Kentucky took it on the chin versus UConn in November in Hawaii, but obviously we are dealing with different teams altogether right now.
Just highly impressed with the "team" play the Wildcats have been putting on the court right now, and all 5 of the starters did score in double-figures in Kentucky's revenge win over North Carolina last weekend.
Kemba is a horse, no doubt about that, and Lamb has become a force as well for Jimmy C's Huskies, but my money is on the Wildcats to find the answer, and I think part of the answer will have Harrellson in its name!
Take Kentucky in the nightcap minus the basket or so.
Matt Rivers
200,000♦ Kentucky ML
Take Kentucky on the moneyline against Connecticut in the late game of the Final Four.
The Wildcats look like a team of destiny to me. They have major talent with Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb, three freshmen who figure to be one-and-done after this year.
I can’t dismiss UConn’s Kemba Walker, but the Huskies are too reliant on him for their offense while Kentucky has a more balanced attack.
That figures to be the difference here because the Wildcats can and will focus their entire defensive strategy on stopping Walker. If he can’t get it going it’s going to be a long night for the Huskies.
On the other end, Kentucky has so much talent it can look to anyone for its offense and that’s going to keep the Wildcats from going into any prolonged scoring droughts.
Although I feel like Kentucky should cover the side with no problem, I’m laying a little more juice for the sure play which is for the Wilrcats to win. It’s smart money management when you think about it because it protects us against a backdoor cover by UConn or if Kentucky wins on a last shot.
Take the Wildcats on the moneyline as they advance to Monday’s title game.