JB SPORTS
3* Bucks -1
Jimmy Boyd
5* LA Lakers
3* Phoenix Suns
3* St Louis Cardinals
Marc Lawrence
4 Units LA Lakers
3 Units on Portland
Joyce Sterling
Portland +2
Freddy Wills
POD - St Louis Cardinals
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Charlotte Bobcats
10 Dime Seattle Mariners
Bobcats
Using the same logic with this play as I did with Thursday’s monster 30 Dime winner on the Thunder over the Lakers. As was the case with Oklahoma City, you’ve got a young, fairly inexperienced team in Charlotte down 0-2 in this series with Orlando and playing its first-ever home playoff game. And just like the Thunder, I expect the Bobcats to get a big boost from their home crowd, and I expect the Magic to be a little bit flat and perhaps a little disinterested, as they know they’ve got the 2-0 series cushion and they know it’s only a matter of time before they win this series.
Remember: Mindset plays a big part in handicapping the best-of-7 NBA playoff series. And when you get to these Game 3 situations (especially in the first round) and one team is up 2-0 and going on the road for the first time, the “fat-and-happy” factor comes into play. We saw it with the Thunder-Lakers series, and we saw it with the Bulls-Cavs series.
Keep in mind that Charlotte was tremendous on its home court during the regular season, winning 31 of 41 games (and one of the losses came in against the Bulls in the season finale – a game that was meaningless to the Bobcats but one Chicago had to win to get into the playoffs). Charlotte outscored its opponents by 6.5 ppg at home, and while it averaged 98.3 ppg, it was the defense that really was the key as the Bobcats held visitors under 92 ppg on 43.7 percent shooting overall and just 30.3 percent from three-point range. That latter stat is key, because no team hoists up 3s like the Magic – and if the 3s don’t fall early in this contest, Orlando is going to be in trouble.
While the scoreboard shows two blowout home wins for the Magic in Games 1 and 2, the series has actually been more competitive than that. In fact, after an awful first quarter in Game 1, the Bobcats outscored Orlando by two points the rest of the way (and the Magic had just a five-point lead with 90 seconds to play). Then in Game 2, it was a poor second and third quarter that cost Charlotte, as it was outscored 57-41, but it was really at the free-throw line where the Bobcats got beat on Wednesday (the Magic had a 35-18 edge in free-throw attempts). With this series shifting to Charlotte, you have to think the Bobcats will be getting some of those calls tonight.
Also, despite the presence of Magic big man Dwight Howard, the Bobcats have more than held their own on the boards (they’re actually +7 in rebounding for the series). And Orlando continues to have trouble putting points on the board against the Bobcats’ tough perimeter defense. Take away two overtime games and the Magic have now been held under 100 points in nine straight meetings. Of course, Charlotte has had its own offensive issues, but being back in a familiar setting (and with some whistles going their way), I expect we’ll see the Bobcats have by far their best offensive showing of the series today.
Finally, Charlotte comes into this game on ATS streaks of 6-2-1 when coming off a loss and 5-2 as a home underdog (all as a pup of less than five points). Meanwhile, the Magic are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a playoff chalk and 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games when a small favorite (less than five points. That includes a Game 3 loss in Philadelphia in the first round last year.
Mariners
Definitely willing to support Seattle right-hander Doug Fister, who has pitched tremendously in his first three starts, going 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA and just 16 combined hits and walks allowed in 19 innings. In his last two starts, he held the A’s and Orioles to a total of one run on six hits and one walk with seven strikeouts in 15 innings.
Granted, the A’s and Orioles don’t exactly field potent offensive attacks, but neither do the White Sox. The Pale Hose went into Friday’s series opener against the Mariners with a pathetic .215 team average, including .212 against right-handers. At home, those woeful numbers dipped to .196 overall and .183 against right-handers. And prior to Friday, the Sox had scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their previous 15 games.
Chicago had trouble with Fister when they faced him last year in Seattle, managing just one hit and four walks in six innings. Although the White Sox went on to win that game 3-1, Fister definitely did his job and deserved to win.
Not only is this a play on Fister, but it’s a play against Freddy Garcia. The veteran right-hander is coming off a horrific outing at Toronto (seven runs allowed in three innings of a 7-3 loss. Chicago has lost both of Garcia’s starts this year and they’re 1-4 in his last five outings.
Finally, Seattle comes into this game on a 7-2 run, while the White Sox have dropped six of eight overall and six of nine at home.
AL DEMARCO
15 DIME LA Lakers
ANTHONY REDD
20 DIME Magic/Bobcats Under
10 DIME Lakers/Thunder Under
BOBBY MAXWELL
500 Units Atlanta Hawks
100 Units Phoenix Suns
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Suns
Michael Cannon
40 Dime Suns
20 Dime Yankees
Stephen Nover
100 Dime Hawks/Bucks Over
Derek Mancini
30 Dime Bobcats
Chris Jordan
200 Units Magic
100 Units Royals
CHUCK O'BRIEN
30 DIME LA Lakers
10 DIME LA Angels
Larry Ness
10* Braves 10*
8* Mariners
10* Lakers
9* Lakers Over
9* Bobcats
James Patrick Sports
5* GOY Charlotte
3* Milwaukee
Erin Rynning
Lakers Under 194
Ben Burns
10* Bobcats
10* TB Rays
9* A's Under
8* White Sox
6* San Jose
SEABASS
100* TB
50* Indians Under
50* Sea Under
50* NYY
30* Arz Over
300* LA Lakers
200* Charlotte
100* Bucks
100* Penguins
Ben Burns
10* Bobcats
10* TB Rays
9* A's Under
8* White Sox6* San Jose
10* LA Lakers Over
The Millionaires Club Guaranteed Selections
90% DIAMOND CLUB NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS ANNIHILATOR
Phoenix and Portland UNDER 202.5
Executive
250% Orlando
250% Okl City