Brandon Lang
15 Dime College Pick in the Final 4 on the Duke Blue Devils as a small chalk agaist West Virginia. As this play is posted around 2 am Eastern Saturday, the Blue Devls are laydng around 2 1/2 points in Las Vegas and Offsahore. But like I always tell you in fooiball, "you never get beat by the hook" so go ahead and buy the 1/2 point down on Duke.
It all comes down to the years of experience Coach K brings to this Final Four. Nothing else really matters for my money. Love the guy, or hate the guy, Coach K can flat-out coach, and in the end his know-how will make a difderence when the chips are down in this battle.
All props to West Virginia for taking Kentucky out of their rhythm, but when you think about it, the Wildcats don't really have a pure jump-shooter. The Blue Devils have 3. Scheyer, Singler, and Smith can all put the ball through the hoop from long range, and that is what you need against the Mountaineers zone defense.
The Mountaineers shot out of their minds from behind the arc against Kentucky, nailing 10 trifectas in the game, 8 of them coming in the first half. I don't know about you, but watching West Virginia play in the games leading up to their unlikely outburst against Kentucky, I can tell you that for my money, there is no way West Virginia shoots like that tonight against Duke.
The Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the nation in defendaing the arc, and that will be an area that W Va loses the battle in all 40 minutes long.
Great run for Huggy and the 'Neers, but with this being Mike Krzyzewski's 11th trip to the Final Four, I just can't pass up his expirience minus this small number.
Dookies dancing on to Monday night.
FREE PICK - MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
CHARLIE
500* Suns @ Bucks Over 204.5
500* Michigan St / Butler Over 126
500* West Va +2.5
500* West Va / Duke Over 131
30* Michigan St +1
20* Portland -6
20* Denver -13
10* Charlotte +3
NJ Nets +3 Free Play
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Michigan State
Billionaire- Mil Bucks
No Limit - Duke
Private Players Of Pittsburgh
4% Miami Heat
3% Chicago Bulls
3% Portland Trailblazers
2% Michigan State
2% West Virginia
Tim Trushel
20* Bulls Under
Butler Under
Street Rosenthal
*200 Miami Heat -6.5
*200 Anaheim Ducks Over 5.5
Trent Citron
6 Units Michigan State
6 Units West Virginia
4 Units Milwaukee Bucks
4 Units Chicago Bulls
DR. BOB
2 Star Selection
Portland (-7) over SACRAMENTO
Portland is a better team since acquiring defensive ace Marcus Camby from the Clippers to fill the void in the middle of the paint and the Blazers' loss at Denver on Thursday night should have them properly motivated tonight. Portland applies to a 30-6-1 ATS subset of an 86-32-3 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and the Blazers are 12-4 ATS this season as a road favorite while the Kings are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 as a home underdog. My ratings favor Portland by 7 points, so the line is fair, and I'll take Portland in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -6 points. Play Strength: 2-Stars at -7 or less, 3-Stars at -6.
Opinion
Butler (-1) over Michigan State
Michigan State has managed to win their last two games without star point guard Kalin Lucas, which speaks to how good of a coach Tom Izzo is. Michigan State is now 25-10-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games when not laying 9 points or more under coach Tom Izzo, including 21-5-1 ATS when they're seeded #5 or better. However, Butler is a better team than Michigan State and the Bulldogs tend to play their best against better teams. The Bulldogs have been 2 points better in 9 games against NCAA tournament caliber teams than they've been overall while going 6-3 straight up in those games (against Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, Ohio State, Xavier, UTEP, Murray State, Syracuse, and Kansas State). Michigan State, meanwhile has been 2 points worse this season than they've been overall, when facing NCAA tournament caliber teams while going a modest 9-8 straight up in those games. My ratings favor Butler by 2 1/2 points without adjusting for Lucas being out and I value Lucas as worth just over 1 point, so the line value favors Butler, who is also playing in their home city. Teams playing in their home state are 123-82 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, but the Final Four may not provide the usual edge for the in state team since there are not as many extra tickets available to be snapped up by local fans. Playing in a dome could also be an issue for Butler, who has no experience with the depth perception problems that a dome creates. Michigan State, meanwhile, has played 9 games in domes the last few years, so they're more accustomed to the environment. I'm still going to lean with Butler, who has won 24 consecutive games and toppled very good teams in Syracuse and Kansas State in the last two rounds. Michigan State's 4 tournament wins have been by an average of just 4 points and the only really good team that they beat was Maryland. Butler has played 6 points better in this tournament than Michigan State has and I'll call for them to make it to the Championship game. I have no opinion on the total.
Duke (-2) over West Virginia
Duke wasn't getting the respect that they deserved heading into this tournament, as many thought West Virginia should have been a #1 seed instead of Duke. However, Duke was my 2nd highest rated team heading into this tournament and my ratings favor the Blue Devils by 3 points in this game. Duke has one of the best offensive teams in the nation, but the Blue Devils have the 3rd best defense in the nation on a compensated points per possession basis. Duke is better on both ends of the floor than West Virginia, whose upset win over Kentucky was a bit of a fluke. West Virginia beat Kentucky by only 7 points despite the Wildcats' pathetic 4 for 32 3-point shooting and they'll have to get lucky again to win this game. Teams that beat a #1 seed in the Regional Final are just 6-13 ATS in the national semifinal if facing a team seeded #3 or better and West Virginia also applies to a negative 0-10 ATS Final Four situation. I'll consider Duke a Strong Opinion in this game and I'll lean Under (I project 127 1/2 points).
Erin Rynning
Bulls Under 186
NJ Nets +2.5
Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
Butler -1
Duke -2
Teddy Covers
Mil Bucks
Alatex
15* WV +2.5
Anthony Redd
40 Dime - West Virginia
3G-Sports
10* Butler -1
I think Michigan St had the much easier path here. Very, very few people had Michigan State anywhere near the Final Four and frankly it was for good reason. They went 5-4 to close out the season after starting 19-3 and lost to a pedestrian Minnesota team in the first round of the Big-10 tournament. They struggled as a team from the free throw line all season, making only 68% of their attempts and a decent 34% from three. Butler went undefeated in conference play and has won an incredible 23 games in a row, last losing on December 22nd, 2009. That is an insane run that has carried into the tournament, as the Bulldogs knocked off #1 Syracuse and #2 Kansas State to punch their ticket into the Final Four. Butler has not only won 23 straight but finished 6th in the NCAA’s in defensive efficiency while allowing opponents to shoot under 46% from inside the arc. BUTLER wins again here on Saturday evening.
5* Duke -2
West Virginia’s strength lies with its incredibly proficient offensive rebounding. They finished the regular season ranked second in D-I in offensive rebounds percentage, scooping up 41.9% of missed shots. Duke, meanwhile, finished the year ranked first overall out of all 347 schools in offensive efficiency and third overall in defensive efficiency, my favorite statistics being the 38.2% shooting from three and opponents miniscule 27.8% from three. I think Duke’s great defense can shut those players down tonight. Duke has been the better team all season and should win this game and unlike Kentucky, Duke wont shoot 4-32 from 3-pt land and miss 14 FT and hand them the game. Duke is the better more balanced and better team. Play DUKE as a 5*
Trace Adams
Saturday's Selections Can't expect this one to be a blowout by any stretch of the imagenation, as Michigan State's total margin of victory has been just 13 points through their 4 tournament games, but on the other hand, I do expect Butler to be just good enough once again to advance to Monday's title game.
Butler has not allowed an opponent to reach 60-points in this tournament, and I fully expect their stiffling defense to aid in Korie Lucious becoming unglued at the point for the Spartans.
Lucious has filled in well for the injured Kalin Lucas, but here is the spot he will struggle, and then Tom Izzo is very limited with who he can turn to. That to me will be the key to this game.
The Bulldogs defense should also cool off Durrell Summers who has connected on 16 of the 30 trifectas he has launchred. Just don't see that hot shooting continuing on this night.
Sure, the Spartans have plenty of pieces back from last year's team that made it to the final Monday of the tourney, but if you haven't figured this "karma" thing out by now Butler is now playing just 6 miles from their campus, and I feel sure the Lucas Oil Satdium crowd will fully be behind this Butler team.
I was a little suiprised the Bulldogs were actually installed as the favorite, but they are to me the more defined "team" of the 2 on the court this Saturday, and with wins over # 1 Syracuse, and # 2 Kansas State their last 2 times out, I think it is safe to say the Bulldogs are "legit".
I am backing Butler.
My 2000♦ Double Your Wager releese is on the Butler Bulldogs laying anywhere betrween 1 and 1 1/2 pointes against Michigan State as I post this play as of 7 AM Easten Saturday morning.
My 500♦ Bonus release is on West Virginia catihing between 2 1/2 and 3 points against Duke in Saturday's late game.
I know Duke it going to be the popular choice in the nightcap, but mark me down as a believer in the West Virginia 1-3-1 zone, and mark me down as a believer in the toughness this Mountaineers team continues to exhibit.
Duke caught a huge break in the Elite 8, as Baylor's inexperience cost them. Baylor was in the driver's seat, but their inability to grab key rebounds, and Duke's second chance 3-balls were killer. I don't think that will happen against the Mountaineers.
West Va's defense completely disrupted Kentucky's perimeter game, and while I agree that Duke has a little more pop from the perimeter than the Wildcats did, I still see the Blue Devils misfiring from behind the arc just enough to give the Mountaineers a chance to steal the outright.
The resolve I have seen in this West Virginia team is the thing that has impressed me the most, and I am not going against them in this spot tonight.