Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* Butler -1
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the Bulldogs.
The fifth-seeded Spartans advanced to the final four with a hard fought 70-69 victory over Tennessee.
This team has had to battle on and off court issues all year; I believe the injuries will finally catch up to this team in this one against a determined Butler team.
In addition to Kalin Lucas’ injury, Delvon Roe is playing on a torn meniscus and Chris Allen is nursing an aching foot.
The Spartan's "offense by committee" I believe has reached the end of its rope.
Important to point out that Michigan State is a poor 8-15 ATS its last 23 when playing against a team with a winning record; also just 7-9 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points per game or less.
On the other side of the court: Gordon Hayward scored 22 points in the Bulldogs 63-56 victory over Kansas State in the West Regional; I expect this "team of destiny" to continue its incredible journey.
The Bulldogs win with defense, and I expect this team to continue to go to its strengths; trapping, swarming, pressuring defense throughout the game.
Butler is 4-1 ATS its last five overall and is extremely balanced.
Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one; Michigan State has adapted unbelievably well up to this point, but now runs into arguably the hottest team in the nation with the most dominant defense; never has the adage: "defines wins champions", ring more true than now.
Tony George
Butler -1
Yes Tom Izzo is a GREAT Coach, but lack of depth catches up here as Butler is the real deal, without question. Forget mid major, these guys are on the same page, beat a better team in Kansas State than what Mich. State is, and they can flat out ball against anyone. Butlers defense is UNREAL and 14 ppg than Michigan States, in their last 5 games. Butlers has held some STUD teams on the average to under 55 ppg. Michigan State has won ugly this entire tourney, and ity ends here, I do not care how many times Izzo has been here, Butler will not be pushed around. Play 1 Unit on Butler.
Bob Balfe
Butler -1
Many people doubted this Butler team the entire tournament. You do not get to the Final Four by mistake. Unlike other Cinderellas in the past, this Butler team can shoot the ball and play great defense. Michigan State is a very banged up squad right now and a week off only makes injuries worse, as muscles really begin to tighten up. The difference today will definitely be the absence of Kalin Lucas for Michigan State. Without a true guard, the Spartans will not be able to score enough against this solid and underrated Butler defense. Look for Gordon Hayward to have another incredible game and lead his team to the finals. Butler will get a big win in front of their home crowd tonight. Take the Bulldogs.
Seabass
400* MSU
100* MSU Over
200* WVU Under
50* WVU to win NCAA
100* NO/NJ over
50* LA kings
Trey Scott
*500 Butler -1
Lenny Del Genio
Duke -2.5
In the second game of today’s NCAA Tournament semifinal action Duke and West Virginia battle for a spot in Monday night’s championship game. In the past, Duke would always receive a ton of publicity and respect, not this year. The Blue Devils have been flying under the radar and many questioned them getting a number one see. However, the tournament committee gave them respect and they’ve responded by being the only number one seed here in Indy. Duke backers have made a killing in the tourney as their Dukies have run off four straight point spread wins. The first three were easy winners as Duke scored double digit wins. However, in the Elite 8 win over Baylor not only was the victory in doubt, some might say that the point spread win was a little phony. Duke was greatly aided by two technical fouls in the final minutes and some sloppy Baylor play, but give Duke credit as they made most of their free throws down the stretch. Also, in the Baylor win Duke scored the victory despite only hitting 36% of their field goal attempts. Meanwhile, West Virginia has also poured money into their starved economy as they’ve treated their backers to four straight ATS wins. In their Elite 8 game they frustrated Kentucky, arguably the best team in the tourney, by holding the run and gun Wildcats to only 66 points and 34% shooting. Was it W. VA’s defense or just an aberration that Kentucky couldn’t hit an outside shot? Maybe it wasn’t a fluke as West Virginia has allowed their four NCAA tourney opponents to shoot an average of only 33% from the floor. One of the glaring stats in that win over Kentucky was W. VA won despite getting killed on the glass as they were out rebounded 51-36. This should be an important factor in this matchup versus Duke as the Blue Devils are very strong on the boards. Overall this should be a tough physical game, however we look for Duke to beat West Virginia and advance to Mondays Championship. We like Duke’s ability to hit the boards, there court savvy, their 3-point shooting, and their ability to shot free throws. If the game is close, or Duke has a slim lead it’s going to come down to free throws, and Duke is a 76% free throw shooting team. It’s not a big surprise that Coach K always gets the favorable whistles from the refs’. Also, don’t forget W. VA knocked Duke out of the tourney in 2008 and Krzyzewski has a good memory. 25* Play on Duke!
Marc Lawrence
West Virginia +2.5
When the Mountaineers meet the Blue Devils at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis Saturday evening they will take the court with strong winning edges in their favor. First and foremost, West Virginia will be highly motivated in this contest, feeling they - not Duke - should have been awarded a No.1 seed in this tourney by the NCAA Tournament committee. That's been their creed throughout this event and the mindset with which they are playing. Head coach Bob Huggins has dominated sub .880 ACC opposition in his career, going 8-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the NCAA tourney. Huggins' WVU teams have allowed and average 57.5 PPG in eight NCAA tourney games, including a 76-67 win over Duke n the 2008 tournament. Most recently, the Mountaineers have not allowed more than 68 points in any of its last 10 games. On the flip side, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski has covered in only 16 of 46 career games against Big East opposition. In addition, his teams are 5-16 ATS in NCAA tournament games in which they fail to score 72 points, including 2-15 ATS the last 17 as favorites. From our powerful database we note that favorites in Final Four games that have covered every game in tourney are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when facing a No. 1 or No. 2 seeded opponent over the last 20 years. We also note that the Mountaineers are 15-2-1 ATS in NCAA tourney games since 1998, including 7-0-1 ATS as a dog. With WVU 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS on neutral courts in games against the ACC, and 15-1 SU in non-confernece games this season, look for the Mountaineers to advance to the championship game on Monday. We recommend a 3-unit play on West Virginia.
The Duke's Sports
West Virginia Over (131) for 2.5 Units
Duke has a tendency to make a team play out of its character for example, they've demonstrated this season that they can take a fast-paced full-court team and make them play slow, such as they did vs Clemson, Maryland (at home), Florida State, North Carolina,California to name a few on the other hand, they can also take a methodical half-court team and force them to play fast - not always with success - such as at Wisconsin and at Georgetown - but the "total" output significantly eclipsed the "number" on unsuspecting occasions this season. Today, we got a good valued "total" to go "over" with. We'll look for this game to play more transition and because of the physical nature expected - more fouls - which, of course, will be points made without the clock running - an "over" player's delight. WV is 11-5 O/U as a neutral site dog. Over it is.