KELSO
100 Units Miami-OH -10.5
15 Units Kansas -22
3 Units BYU -2
3 Units Portland -5.510 Units Army +7.5
10 Units Army Over 53
5 Unit Parlay Army +7.5 & Over 53
Added
5 Units Texas A&M +1.5
5 Units Notre Dame -7.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dime UNLV
10 Dime Providence
UNLV
Those of you who were with me Wednesday know that I played against Louisville that night when it hosted San Francisco because I thought the Cardinals would be looking ahead to this double-revenge showdown against UNLV. And I was right … for a half, anyway, as Louisville went to the locker room with just a 25-24 lead over San Francisco. Then the Cardinals returned to the floor and played lock-down defense for the final 20 minutes, outscored the Dons 36-11 and won 61-35, pushing as a 26-point favorite.
It turns out the look-ahead game was played here in Vegas on Wednesday night, as UNLV squeaked past Boise State 75-72 as a 16-point favorite in a gym several miles from their regular home court. Oddly, the Rebels played the exact opposite game against the Broncos that Louisville played against San Francisco. They jumped out to leads of 15-0 and 22-4 and were still up 16 points with less than four minutes to go before letting off the gas pedal and barely holding on.
Regardless, both these teams enter this contest undefeated – UNLV at 9-0 and Louisville at 7-0. Thing is, only one of these teams is for real, and it’s not Rick Pitino’s crew.
As I detailed in my analysis Wednesday, the Cardinals have been feasting on cupcakes all season long, and they’ve done so entirely at home (Louisville hasn’t so much as played a neutral-site contest yet!). To review: Since opening the season with an 88-73 win over Butler (which is 4-4 and has proven to be a fraud), here’s the list of the Cardinals’ victims: Jackson State, Chattanooga, Marshall, Florida International, South Alabama and San Francisco. And, again, every single one of those contests was played in Louisville’s new gym.
Now, I’m not saying that UNLV’s 9-0 record isn’t the product of facing some weak opponents (U.C. Riverside, Southeastern Louisiana, Murray State, Illinois State and Nevada). However, the Rebels have played (and beaten) four quality foes in Wisconsin, Tulsa, Virginia Tech and Boise State (Boise was 6-1 prior to Wednesday’s game). Also, because the National Finals Rodeo kicks UNLV out of its home arena every December, the Rebels have played six straight games away from the Thomas & Mack Center (four at neutral sites, two true road games).
Translation: UNLV’s 9-0 record is WAY more impressive than Louisville’s 7-0 mark. And that means what the Rebels’ statistics (78.2 ppg, 53.3 percent shooting on offense; 60 ppg, 36.9 percent shooting on defense) look much better than the Cardinals’ (83.7 ppg, 46.4 percent on offense; 58.4 ppg, 34.5 percent on defense).
UNLV has an extremely deep team with nine guys averaging at least 15 minutes of court time per game. Those nine players average between 5.1 points and 14.6 points per game, and all but one of those nine guys is shooting at least 45 percent from the field (six of the nine are hitting at least 50 percent of their shots!). By comparison, the Cardinals are extremely top heavy, with four players averaging between 11.1 and 11.6 points per game, with the two scoring leaders – Preston Knowles (11.3 ppg) and Mike Marra (11.6 ppg) – shooting just 34.2 percent and 37.3 percent, respectively.
Yes, this is an early start for the Rebels (9 a.m. West Coast time), but the team traveled to Louisville on Thursday and thus will have had a full 36 hours to adjust to the time change. Plus, coach Lon Kruger is as good as there is in the college game, and he’ll have his experienced, savvy squad ready to roll from the opening tip – just as he did the last two years against Louisville. That’s right, UNLV has scored consecutive upsets of the Cardinals, winning 56-55 as a 13½-point road underdog on New Year’s Eve 2008, then proved it wasn’t a fluke last November, winning 76-71 at home as a 2½-point pup.
The fact this line is what it is should prove to you that UNLV is the superior squad – especially when you recall that the Rebels haven’t played a home game since Nov. 20 and have gone from Vegas to Illinois State to Reno to Vegas to Louisville since the calendar flipped to December! And the Rebels have been outstanding against the number as a visitor (10-3 ATS last 13 on the highway). Meanwhile Louisville is 4-1-1 ATS in its lined games this season (all at home), but it is 12-28-2 ATS in its last 42 home games against opponents with a winning road record.
Bottom line: With wins over Wisconsin, Tulsa and Virginia Tech, UNLV has proven its mettle in the first month of the season. Conversely, Louisville has proven absolutely nothing, and now that the Cardinals finally face a quality opponent, it will become crystal clear that Rick Pitino’s very young squad is a fraud.
UNLV rolls, 75-68.
PROVIDENCE
Alabama has left Tuscaloosa four times this season (three neutral-site games against Seton Hall, Iowa and St. Peters; one true roadie at Purdue last Saturday). The results: Four losses, four non-covers, including a 66-47 beat-down at Purdue a week ago. Sort of offsets a 4-0 home record, doesn’t it? Especially when, that home mark was built against patsies like Florida A&M, Troy, Alabama A&M and South Alabama!!
Meanwhile, Providence is a perfect 8-0 at home, and even though you can question the Friars’ competition (only one of those eight wins came against a well-known opponent, and that was rival Rhode Island), you can’t argue with the fact that six of the eight wins were by 13 points or more. And the Friars have averaged nearly 81 ppg at home while outrebounding foes 41.2 to 30.5.
Providence did see its five-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 88-86 loss at Boston College, but the Friars covered easily as a seven-point underdog, giving them three consecutive spread-covers after a 1-4 ATS start to the campaign. As for Alabama’s pointspread trends, it’s all ugly: 1-5 overall, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-5-2 on Saturday, 1-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 versus Big East squads.
Finally, this is a huge revenge game for Providence, too, as it went to Tuscaloosa last year as a 5½-point underdog and blew a four-point halftime lead, losing 84-75 in overtime. The difference? The Friars committed 14 turnovers and forced only eight. Well, Alabama has totaled 47 turnovers in its last three games away from home, one of the reasons the Tide scored just 47, 49 and 47 points in those three contests (despite being BIG favorites in two of those games).
All Friars in this one!
RAS
UNLV/Lou Over 143
Duke/St. Louis Under 134
Adam Meyer
Navy -7.5
Gerald Roth
Rrutgers -8.5
Cavs/Rockets Over 204
Will Cover
4* Notre Dame -7
3* Arkansas LR +8
3* Northern Iowa -4
DAVID BANKS
NAVY
CELTICS
JAZZ
LOUISVILLE
MARQUETTE
ARIZONA
OKLAHOMA STATE
GONZAGA
SAN DIEGO ST.
Maddux Sports
20 Units Gonzaga + 8
10 Units Central Mich +12.5
10 Units Rider +6.5
Teddy Covers
Pacers
Wisconsin
Arizona
PURELOCK
NAVY -7.5
Larry Ness
Perfect Storm - Texas A&M +2
Washington travels to College Station to face Texas A&M in the Big 12/Pac 10 Hardwood Series in what will be the school's first true road game of the season. The Huskies return four starters from their 26-10 squad that made it to the Sweet 16 last season but they face the tough challenge of having to replace Quincy Pondexter (19.3-7.4) who has taken his talents to the NBA. Washington's (6-2) losses this season were in the Maui Invitational to Michigan State and Kentucky. While there is certainly no shame in either of those defeats, I am concerned that the team's most noteworthy win this season was against Virginia, as a 12-5 point favorite. The Huskies are leading the nation in scoring with their 95.5 PPG average but points will be much harder to come by against the Aggies. Mark Turgeon is once again overseeing a team that is playing tough man-to-man defense, holding teams to just 35.9% shooting on its home court. Texas A&M returns three starters from last season's 24-10 club that made it to the second round of the Big Dance last season. That made it five straight NCAA appearances for the Aggies, including all three seasons since Turgeon arrived in College Station. Turgeon has adopted a nine-man rotation that has rattled off EIGHT wins in nine games. The team's lone loss was by just two points in the Old Spice Challenge to Boston College (67-65) and that setback was followed with an impressive win against a good Temple team in that same tournament (ask Georgetown if the Owls are any good?). The Aggies have been awesome defensively since that loss to Boston College, holding their last five opponents to an average of 54.2 PPG on 35.4 percent shooting. What these Aggies do particularly well is rebound the basketball as they rank 6th in the nation by outrebounding their opponents by a plus-13 RPG margin (haven't been outrebounded in a single game this year). With the graduation of Pondexter at small forward, frontcourt size is a weakness of the Huskies as they are averaging only a plus-six RPG advantage over their relatively easy early schedule. Texas A&M have proven themselves to be a tough "out" on its home court (now there is an understatement!). Consider this. The Aggies are 19-1 in Reed Arena since the beginning of last season (only loss vs Kansas). The Aggies haven't lost to a non-conference opponent at home since a 58-51 defeat to St. John's on March 23, 2005. They'll take a 56-game winning streak into this game vs non-conference opponents and are 'itching' to get a shot at the Huskies. A&M guard Roland suffered a broken leg in last year's game in Seattle. The Aggies were "thrown off" by the injury, with Washington going a 14-3 run right after the incident, on its way to a 73-64 win. Expect a little payback here, as the Aggies "win one for Roland," who did not win his appeal for an extra year of eligibility due to the injury. I've never much been a fan of Romar, as his team's tend to "not their game" away from the friendly confines of the Pacific Northwest. The defensive-minded Aggies will stand up to Washington physically and extend that non-conference home winning streak against a Washington team which is untested in hostile environments and still learning how to live 'life' without Pondexter.
Bobby Maxwell
Navy
Brandon Lang
Northern Arizona +9.5
Tom Stryker
Navy
N Carolina
Oklahoma St.
Old Dominion
Helmut
Louisville Over 145.5
Oklahoma State -2
Arlon Sports
2* Western Kentucky -5
2* Marquette -1
2* Kentucky -13