Scott Spreitzer
CBB CONF REVENGE *GAME OF THE YEAR!* (4-0, 100% Winning Saturday Run)
I'm laying the points with Georgia on Saturday afternoon. I picked up two nice wins involving South Carolina in less than a week in late January. We cashed with USC over Kentucky, followed by a win on Georgia, plus seven over the Gamecocks on January 30. The Bulldogs easily covered the spread, losing 78-77. But they actually led USC by nine points midway through the second half. Only two South Carolina players scored more than six points in the game, but one of those, Devan Downey stole the show, scoring 33 points on 12 of 20 shooting. The rest of the team made just 17 FGs. Today, I expect a lot more "helping out" on the defensive end against Downey, including denial without the ball. UGA is strong enough defensively at home to double-up on Downey without sacrificing other matchups. The Bulldogs are 9-3 SU at home this season, holding their 12 guests to 61.9 ppg. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks, who're 13-3 SU in home/neutral site games, are just 1-6 as a true roadie. They have averaged just 63.4 ppg in those road outings on 38% shooting. They don't get to the charity stripe much, and they own a minus-39 rebound margin on the road, or minus-5.57 per game. There's very little to this offense, especially in road action. And because Downey hogs the ball and the shot attempts, the team averages less than 8 apg. Downey has taken 145 shots in seven road games, making just 38% of his attempts, including just 34% from the arc. He has taken almost 40% of his team's shots in their last three road games...all losses. A nice opponent for UGA to matchup with on the defensive end. Center Albert Jackson may not play in this one. He was arrested earlier this week. But he's not a huge contributor anyway, averaging just 3.5 ppg and just 3.7 rpg. Mark Fox is steadily turning this program around. They have led in five of their last seven losses. In fact, they went into their most recent contest...at Auburn, leading the SEC in shooting, at almost 50% from the field, including 43% from the arc. Georgia is 8-1, 89% ATS in their last nine road games, and they're 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups in this series. South Carolina's road struggles continue. I'm laying the short number with Georgia, my SEC Revenge GOY.
Tony Taylor
Adding
3* Texas -14
3* BYU -22
Final Report
5* Xavier +4.5 (Underdog GOY)
4* Towson +2 (Colonial Athletic Conf GOY)
3* Kentucky -10
3* Cornell -5
Sportsbetsnow
3 Units St. Bonaventure +3.5
Sports Bank
500* Xavier
Wunderdog
Game: New Jersey at Carolina
Pick: 4 units New Jersey -125
Game: New Jersey at Carolina
Pick: 2 units New Jersey-1.5 +240
Game: Ottawa at Detroit
Pick: 3 units Detroit -150
Game: Washington at St. Louis
Pick: 3 units St. Louis +170
Game: Washington at St. Louis
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis +1.5 -190
Wunderdog
Game: LSU at Vanderbilt
Pick: 3 units LSU +16
Game: Nebraska at Texas
Pick: 3 units Nebraska +14
Game: Iowa at Purdue
Pick: 5 units Iowa +20
Game: Air Force at B Y U
Pick: 3 units Air Force +23.5
Game: Colorado at Kansas State
Pick: 3 units Colorado +14.5
Game: Harvard at Brown
Pick: 3 units Harvard -10
Game: Tennessee at Kentucky
Pick: 3 units Tennessee +10
Game: Eastern Carolina at U T E P
Pick: 3 units Eastern Carolina +22
Game: San Diego at Gonzaga
Pick: 5 units San Diego +17.5
Jeff Benton
40 Dime: OKLAHOMA STATE
10 Dime: PORTLAND
Oklahoma State
The Big 12 conference has the biggest home/road dichotomy of any league in the country, and these two teams playing in Stillwater today fall right in line with that discrepancy. Both teams are 11-1 on their home courts, with Oklahoma State’s lone home defeat coming at the hands of Texas (72-60 back on Feb. 1, the Cowboys’ most recent home game). Sandwiched around that loss to Texas were a pair of road defeats at Missouri and Texas Tech, meaning the Cowboys come into this game in an 0-3 SU and ATS slump.
However, if you eliminate the Texas loss – by the way, Oklahoma State was a 2½-point underdog in that game, so it wasn’t a “bad” loss or anything – the Cowboys have won their other 11 games at Gallagher Iba Arena by nearly 20 points per game (79.6-60). That includes a trio of comfortable Big 12 home wins and covers over Texas Tech (81-52), Colorado (90-78) and Texas A&M (76-69). Go back to last season and Oklahoma State is an impressive 16-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in lined games on its home floor, including 8-1 in Big 12 home games (7-2 ATS).
The last team other than Texas to win in Stillwater? Indeed, it was Oklahoma last Jan. 26 (an 89-81 victory). But remember: The Sooners, with Blake Griffin leading the way, were a Top 10 squad last year (one that made it to the Elite Eight of the NCAAs). This year, Oklahoma is just 13-10 overall, including 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS away from Norman (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in true road games).
The Sooners have hit the highway four times in Big 12 play and were competitive only once (65-62 loss at Texas A&M as a 7½-point underdog). Aside from that, Oklahoma has lost at Baylor 91-60, at Texas Tech 75-65 and at Nebraska 63-46. Throw in a 14-point loss at Gonzaga, and it’s clear that OU is a terrible traveler.
To further hammer home the home-road angle, consider that Oklahoma State allows just 62.8 ppg at home (including the Texas loss) and holds opponents to 40.4 percent shooting. The Sooners give up 76 ppg on the road and allow 46.7 percent shooting (39 percent from three-point land). And the Cowboys average 37 rebounds per contest at home; the Sooners average 30.3.
Finally, get a load of some of these pointspread trends: Oklahoma, in addition to failing to cash in four of its last five games overall, is 15-34-3 ATS in its last 52 road games and a lengthy 23-49-3 ATS in its last 75 road games against teams that have a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on ATS runs of 20-8-1 overall, 20-6-2 at home, 13-6 in conference, 17-8-1 against opponents with a winning overall record and a perfect 8-0 when playing at home against opponents that have a losing road mark.
Throw in the fact this is a double-revenge situation for Oklahoma State – which not only is seeking payback for last year’s home loss to the Sooners but also for letting one get away at Oklahoma a month ago when they lost 62-57 in overtime, shooting a miserable 27.5 percent for the game – and everything about this matchup screams Cowboys. (And because OSU is coming off three straight losses and non-covers, we’re getting value in the line, too!)
Portland
Portland is a very, very underrated team, a team that gets lost in the West Coast Conference shadow of Gonzaga and tonight’s opponent, St. Mary’s. But this isn’t so much a play on the Pilots as it is a play against St. Mary’s, which is likely to come into this contest still hung over after yet another loss to Gonzaga on Thursday.
The Gaels have been fighting an uphill battle against Gonzaga for several years now, and just when it looked like they might FINALLY get over the hump the other night, they fell completely apart once again. St. Mary’s jumped on Gonzaga quickly (12-5 lead) and even though the Bulldogs battled back and hit a three-pointer at the halftime buzzer to take a three-point lead, it was still a ballgame. But the Gaels couldn’t hold onto the ball (17 turnovers that lead to 22 Gonzaga points), and they got outscored 41-25 in the final 20 minutes.
That complete second-half meltdown has me believing the Gaels (who had won their first seven true road games) are not going to be right mentally for tonight. After all, it was just a month ago that Gonzaga won on St. Mary’s home court, and 48 hours later the Gaels turned around and hosted Portland, and though they rallied for a 77-72 win, it wasn’t easy (and they failed to cash as an eight-point favorite). Also, look at last year when St. Mary’s went 10-4 in the West Coast Conference, but two of those losses came in back to back road games at Gonzaga and (you guessed it!) Portland – and the Gaels followed up that loss at Gonzaga with an ugly 18-point loss to the Pilots. As is the case tonight, only 48 hours separated those two games.
Portland comes into this game having won six of its nine conference games (in addition to the five-point loss at St. Mary’s, the Pilots fell twice to Gonzaga, including a three-point home defeat), and it is 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight contests, including five double-digit wins and a nine-point road victory. The Pilots are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 Saturday contests, while St.
Mary’s has failed to cover in four of its last five against teams that have a winning record and four of its last five when coming off a non-cover. Finally, the favorite has covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings between these teams.
Lay the small price and don’t be surprised if this is another blowout similar to last year when these foes met in Portland and the Pilots rolled 84-66.
ASA
6* Georgia
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* MARQUETTE
5* Mississippi State
5* Loyola Chicago
3* Oregon State
3* Portland University
Clayton Rice
3* TEXAS
3* KENTUCKY
3* OLD DOMINION
3* UTAH
Craig Davis
50 Dime - TULSA
Trent Citron
10 units Temple
10 units UNLV
8 units Utah State
6 units South Carolina
6 units Nebraska
6 units Colorado
4 units Xavier
4 units Auburn
4 units Washington
3 units Virginia
3 units New Mexico
LARRY NESS
Non-Conf GOY Xavier
Conference TOY SD/Gonz Over
Tony George
Creighton -3.5
Bluejays on a down year but at damn near unbeatable in Omaha. They have won 5 conference homegames their last 5 attempts including Wichita State, and I like them in an even matchup here to take the home wins to 12 against 1 loss this year. They play good defense at home Dana Altman will have them focused against A MO Valley team with a losing road record. Play 1 unit on Creighton
3GWINS
10* UNLV
5* Columbia