Trace Adams
2000* - Kansas State Wildcats
500* - Connecicut Huskies
Well, K-State burned me as a Pay-After play on Wednesday, but now I understand why, as the Wildcats were looking ahead to this "revenge" spot against Oklahoma, and they were playing a Nebraska team that was trying to save face after their 40 point loss to Texas.
Oklahoma beat Kansas State 61-53 in the schools last meeting in January '09, and that win came on the Wildcats' home floor! You know damn well Kansas State will be eager to return the favor this year, and with the Sooners in a down mode this year, chances are strong that this is going to happen.
Boomer Sooners have lost 3 in a row, and 6 of their last 8 to drift off the radar for the Big Dance, and I just don't think they have the horses to stop the 'Cats, even in their own house.
Kansas State has gone 5-2-1 against the spread their last 8 road games, and they have also gone 8-2 against the spread the last 10 series meetings, winning 2 of the last 3 outright.
For the year, Kansas State is 13-6-1 against the spread while Oklahoma is just 8-14 against the spread for the season.
Take the Wildcats as another 2000♦ cashes!
2000♦ - Kansas State Wildcats
Good spot for UConn to continue their uptick, as their lame effort against Cincinnati has been followed by a "where has that been" 84-75 win at Villanova earlier this week.
Rutgers has pulled off wins in 3 straight, and 5 of 6, including upsetting Georgetown. That win streak keeps the line on this one fair.
The difference comes in the head-to-head meetings which have been totally controlled by the Huskies who have won 8 straight, with 6 straight coming by double-digits!
No issue laying a little chalk on the road in this one, as Conncecticut needs to get themselves off the "bubble" come Big Dance selection time.
500♦ - Connecticut Huskies
Cal Sports
4'* GW Under
4* USC Under
4* WVa
3*Clem
3* Marshall
3* Nev
3* Houston Under
3* Utah Under
Teddy June
10* South Carolina
10* Oklahoma St.
10* Nebraska
The Prez
South Alabama at M Tennessee
Pick: Over 128
Middle Tennessee State proved it can put points on the board, this with a 109-79 beat down of nonconference foe Houston Baptist. And while defense has been MTSU's strength this season, today's matchup offers superior value to a play on the OVER. Both Middle and South Alabama are solid rebounding teams, especially on the offensive end, and second chance points today will be important to the final score.
South Bama doesn't have a big frontcourt, but they are athletic. Consider that South Alabama had more offensive rebounds (27) than Florida International had on the defensive boards (25), when the two teams met on February 11. The Jags are also a different team on the road, allowing 71 points per game.
Trend aficionadas know that February conference games between two teams that live in the .500 neighborhood (winning percentages between .510 and .600) tend to be more offensive, especially when the game appears to project to a modest scoring contest (when oddsmakers open the total at less than 130 points. This trend has cashed at a 58-16 (78%) over the last 12 college campaigns. The average total opens at 124 points with the final score coming in at 133, on average. Six of every 10 games in this situation go OVER the total by seven points or more and the trend is a perfect 12-0 this season.
7* Play on the OVER
Seabass
400 Virginia
300 LSU Under ,Mississippi Under ,Witchta St.,Ind. St.
100 Okla and Columbia
ROCKETMAN
Tulane +7.5
Tulane is only allowing 63.2 points per game at home this year. Thundering Herd are 17-35-4 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Thundering Herd are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Thundering Herd are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Green Wave are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Green Wave are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Green Wave are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Green Wave are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Thundering Herd are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll play Tulane for 3 units tonight!
Pennsylvania +3.5
Penn is 11-1 SU at home vs Yale since 1997. Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Bulldogs are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 Saturday games. Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Pennsylvania. We'll play Penn for 3 units tonight!
Tony George
Illinois +12.5
Under the radar here with a big number. Illinois has some serious frontcourt advantage here and match up very well against a hot Purdue team here in somewhat of a scenario where they may overlook a better than average team in Illinois who never gives up. Lending credence is that Illinois is capable of playing well on the road, beating Wisconsin on the road this year and have won their last 3 roadies. They are no patsy and given a huge line here. Play 1 Unit on Illinois.
Bradley -3.5
Like the Braves at home, who have won 7 out of their last 10 including beating conference leader Northern Iowa in here. A tough homecourt for anyone and a team playing their best ball of the season. Big step up for Drexel here who has lost their last 3 road games in the Colonial conference badly to lesser foes than the Braves. Play 1 unit on Bradley
Sal Devito
5* CONF USA GOY TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE
Tulsa comes in as a small fav and I believe should have no problem with UTEP here. Tulsa comes in having dropped 8 straight ATS and that streak will end today. Tulsa was beat earlier on 2/06 at UTEP 59-73 in a shellacking so they should be in payback mode today. UTEP might look like an easy winner on paper but I beg to differ. Now that Ive told you about all the doom and gloom lets look at some bright spots for Tulsa. Tulsa is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS vs UTEP over the L years. They are 5-1 ATS vs UTEP over the L3 years total. Tulsa is 4-2 SU vs UTEP over the L3 seasons. Pull the trigger as Tulsa wins easily at home.
5* SEC GOY - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
Both teams come in sporting a 9-13 ATS mark. We have some great statistics working AGAINST TENN here. Tenn is just 1-4 ATS This month and 2-8 ATS TY in conf action. They are just 3-7 ATS when holding a prev opponent to 60pts or less. SC is 6-4 ATS at home this year. Much like my play on Tulsa we have a team that just lost on 2/06 53-79 playing at home with revenge. SC shot a terrible 27.6% from that field (Cant get much worse than that) and I expect them to hit at a high % today. SC has won 3 in a row and 4 of 5 in SEC play at home with an UPSET of Kentucky on Jan 26th. South Carolina wins easily - Best of Luck Sal Devito
Clayton Rice
3* THUNDER
3* UNDER CLIPPERS
4* CHARLOTTE
3* UC SANTA-BARBARA
Tony Taylor
3* LSU +6
3* Cleveland State -18
DAVID MALINSKY
6* TEMPLE over ST. JOSEPHS
Two weeks ago Temple fell out of public favor in an ugly loss at
Richmond that did not mean all that much for our charting ? Juan
Fernandez did not play, and the 3-point shooting brought some huge
rolls of the basketball dice into play (the Owls were 1-10; the
Spiders 9-16). But they seemed to fall out of public favor with that
defeat, and yet the only two games since then were special, a 78-56
drubbing of Rhode Island in what was billed as a showdown, and a cozy
73-55 domination of St. Bonaventure on Wednesday in which Fran Dunphy
only needed his starters on the floor for 120 minutes. It means that
we have a fresh team at the top of their game for this cross-town
rivalry, and that is more than Phil Martelli and his fading Hawks can
deal with right now.
The cupboard is simply bare at St. Joseph?s this season. Martelli
usually fields the kind of scrappy side that will still compete even
when the opposition has more talent, but even that will is not there,
with five defeats by 23 points or more, three of them coming in their
dismal 3-9 Atlantic 10 showing. One of those was by a 73-46 count
across town vs. these Owls earlier, when the Hawks were crushed to a
43-22 tune on the boards, a night in which temple got more offensive
rebounds (18) than St. Joseph?s had on the defensive glass (16). That
latter imbalance should be a rarity, but it is not for the Hawks
these days ? Xavier accomplished the same feat in Wednesday?s 88-52
blowout, with grabbing 17 offensive boards while Martelli?s bunch
only cleared the glass 11 times. And it was not like the Musketeers
were trying all that hard, with 14 different players seeing at least
two minutes of action.
You can not make up the kind of personnel deficits that St. Joseph?s
has this late in the season, and it is not as though the Hawks can
threaten by getting hot from the outside ? they are making an anemic
26.6 percent from 3-point range in conference play. Meanwhile the
Owls are simply first class across the board ? they are shooting 47.3
percent in league play, including 39.3 from long range, courtesy of
excellent offensive sets that have produced 172 assists vs. only 126
turnovers. They are holding conference foes to 39.2 percent from the
field, and winning the battle of the boards by +5.5. The Hawks can
not get in the way of that, and there is little reason to believe
they can shave as much margin off of that earlier rout as the
oddsmakers are calling for, especially with their decision to play
this game at the Palestra instead of on campus. That makes this only
a neutral court at best for them, and in reality given the kind of
season the Owls are having they should have more fans in attendance
(this will also be their fourth game on this court this season). That
makes is even easier to turn this into another rout, with that solid
Temple free throw shooting keeping the back door firmly locked.
4* ILLINOIS over PURDUE
Purdue brought us a wire-to-wire outright upset as a 4* at Ohio State
on Wednesday, a game that showed the experience of Matt Painter?s
team, and ability to play hard in a tough environment. But the
weaknesses were on display as well, as a big lead turned into a close
end-game, largely because they do not have the explosiveness to put a
class opponent away by any kind of margin (remember that Kalin Lucas
did not stop, and was ineffective off the bench, when they did get
what looked like a break-through at Michigan State). In going 9-3 in
Big 10 play the only wins by more than this pointspread came vs. Penn
State, Iowa and Minnesota, and they are 2-5 ATS laying -9 or more in
conference games. That makes this setting particularly sweet, because
they are not even supposed to be in this pointspread range in the
first place.
The markets just have not given Bruce Weber and his Illini any love
this season, but at 9-4 in the Big 10 they are right in the hunt for
the #1 seed heading into the conference tourney. That tally is
buoyed by four outright road wins, including a key victory at
Wisconsin in their last trip, and only once have they lost a game by
this margin, that ugly home defeat vs. Ohio State last Sunday that
had some extreme pendulums playing a part (they had a +8 advantage on
the boards and fewer turnovers, but 4-24 from 3-point range will get
you blown out). Now they not only get the week off to be physically
fresh and tactically smart for this one, but in playing for only the
third time in two full weeks they bring a much higher level of energy
than teams usually have at this time on the calendar. And when a team
this good brings that kind of energy, they become the epitome of a
?tough out?.
Illinois is only allowing 39.7 percent shooting in Big 10 play and
winning the battle of the boards. There is the size up front from
Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis and Bill Cole to not get pushed around,
while Demetri McCamey brings the veteran savvy and explosive scoring
from the back-court. If not for a couple of ?outliers? from that
earlier 84-78 home loss to Purdue the result could have easily been
reversed, like Boilermaker reserve John Hart having a career game (14
points in 18 minutes; he only has 17 points in all other Big 10
games), and the woeful 17-29 from the free throw line from the
Illini, which included missing the front end of several one-and
one?s. The closeness of that game brings a confidence here that they
can absolutely compete, and this one stays comfortably inside of the
high spread.
4* WAKE FOREST over N. C. STATE
Every once in a while a college basketball team his a spin on the
roulette wheel, and that payoff has a lingering impact in the
marketplace. That has been the case with N. C. State since that
stunning 88-74 win over Duke a month ago. It was simply the kind of
result that can happen in college basketball, one of those random
days in which all of the pieces fell into place (like 58.2 percent
shooting). It is also a result that has meant next to nothing going
forward.
Since that memorable afternoon it has been an 0-7 slide in A.C.C.
play, with those losses coming by an average of 13.5 points, and on
this court Maryland, Virginia Tech and North Carolina won by a
combined 43 points. The offense that was so brilliant for that one
game has shot a woeful 35.8 percent since then, and in those seven
defeats they lost the battle of the boards by -26. Even the one close
result in that span, a 73-71 loss at Georgia tech, should have an *
attached ? they trailed by 16 with 5:01 remaining before a wild
scramble made it close. The Wolfpack are simply an awful fit right
now, with nine different players getting at least one start in
conference play, and Tracy Smith the only one to average in double
figures. So how do they win against one of the A.C.C.?s best
defenses? They don?t.
Wake Forest has held conference opponents to just 39.4 percent
shooting, stifling State to a 21-62 in that earlier 67-59 home win,
while also controlling the boards by +8. All that kept that one from
getting into double figures were the Deacon struggles at the free
throw line, where they went just 12-23. Off of a loss at Virginia
Tech earlier in the week they bring the right focus here, and while
the Wolfpack offense continues to struggle for direction, the steady
play of PG Ishmael Smith (a rock-solid ratio of 81 assists vs. only
34 TO?s in A.C.C. games) provides the savvy to handle a hostile road
environment. The Deacons have a chance to control this much more
easily than the oddsmakers are calling for, and even if it is close
late they have somewhere to go with the ball at crunch time, which
the home team lacks.
6* CALIFORNIA over OREGON
California has been a major meal ticket for us in Pac 10 play, with
three 6* tickets in our pocket already that all easily covered the
spread. It is the rare case of having a team loaded with SR?s that
have been playing together for many years having a polish and a savvy
that we can absolutely trust in the right settings. Like this one.
With Thursday?s humbling upset loss at Oregon State reducing their
conference lead to a half game there is a real sense of urgency here,
and it does not take much more than the proper focus for them to
easily outdistance a lame duck coach coaching lame Ducks.
When a 6-point favorite loses a game outright by 16 it would
ordinarily sending us scrambling to see what went wrong, but Cal?s
drubbing at Oregon State brings no concerns. Those Beaver half-court
defensive traps are simply something that the Bears do not deal well
with, with the diminutive Jerome Randle having an awful time seeing
over them, especially the 6-5 Seth Tarver, for both passes and shots
(he went 0-11 from 3-point range in the two games against State this
season, while turning the ball over 11 times). When Randle is that
far off of his game it throws the entire team out of rhythm, and Theo
Robertson was open about how that defense got into their heads -
?Definitely. Until you solve it, you can?t feel confident against
it.?
That confidence swings in a major way here. There is no fear of this
court, where Cal rolled 78-60 as -5.5 LY, or of the Ducks in any way,
off of that earlier 89-57 home drubbing, when things were under such
control that no Bear was on the court for more than 29 minutes. And
that game included nine points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots
from Oregon?s Michael Dunigan, who will not play today, leaving a
major hole in the middle. Dunigan?s loss was the final straw in what
has been a dismal Oregon season, one that will likely cost Kent his
job after the schedule plays out. In a current 2-9 SU and ATS slide
in Pac 10 play (we chart the -4 O.T. cover vs. U.C.L.A. as a spread
loss) the Ducks do not show a strength anywhere, and there is a
particular crisis of confidence at hand. Stanford had not won a road
game all season, yet built a 17-point lead in the second half on this
floor Thursday night before settling for a misleading 72-65 final,
and when that class of team is dominating you that easily, you have
reached a level of futility that is not going to correct.
It is not as though Oregon is losing close games ? none of the Pac 10
defeats have been by less than seven points, and both of the Arizona
schools won on this court in double figures. A Cal team that brings
the proper sense of urgency merely continues the spiral.
4* WASHINGTON over U.C.L.A.
Ben Howland?s worst nightmare this season is having to go on the road
against a team loaded with size, depth and athleticism, since his
Bruin roster brings little of those key elements. Fortunately for
him, neither does the rest of the Pac 10. As such his team has been
able to hang around in conference play, although there still have
been four double figure losses. Now he is in the wrong place at the
wrong time in this setting, and 40 minutes will prove to be far too
long for the limited fuel tank that he has to run on. And considering
that Howland has lost his last five trips to BOA Arena when he
brought much better teams, with four of those defeats in double
figures, he faces a real uphill battle. Especially since that Arena
gets cranked up even more than usual for this setting.
As hostile as this environment usually is, the decibels get turned up
tonight - the appearance of the ESPN GameDay crew takes this crowd to
a frenzy, particularly with this also being the last home game for
Quincy Poindexter, and a fragile U.C.L.A. team is forced to deal with
heavier punches than they can absorb. Yes, the Bruins pulled a 62-61
home upset in the first meeting, but they got that one on an unlikely
21-39 shooting, with Michael Roll the only one in the rotation that
did not make at least 50 percent of his shots. Meanwhile the Huskies
were not prepared for the zone looks that Howland threw at them. But
much like the adjustments they made against Arizona State?s zones in
a rematch that swung the first result by a full 40 points, they are
more than prepared this time. And while U.C.L.A.?s win at Washington
State on Thursday helps to bring a lower price range, note the fluky
shooting in that one as well, a sizzling 29-44 that will absolutely
not be repeated at these rims. When the shots are not falling this is
a team that plays smart, but lacks athleticism and depth, and you can
not chase from behind on this court without those attributes.
We have gone to the well twice with Washington in the back-end of
Thursday/Saturday Pac 10 weekends this season, cashing easy tickets
vs. Cal and Stanford in which the Huskies beat the spread by more
than 10 points each time, and that has been nothing new through the
years ? because of the athleticism he has been able to recruit,
Lorenzo Romar?s teams have a lot of energy in store for such
settings, and wear the opposition out. That is exactly the recipe for
a rout in this one.
5* MINNESOTA/INDIANA Under
We cashed a 4* Under ticket with Indiana against Michigan State earlier this week, noting that Tom Crean is slowing the tempo way down now that his Hoosiers are running low on fuel. There were only 97 FG attempts that night, and that is going to be the Indiana way the rest of the season – take the shot clock as deep as possible on each possession to try to keep the games close, and then hope to steal it late. They will shift to that gear even earlier on the road, and having scored just 52, 55 and 58 points in the last three games this is not a confident bunch when they do choose to shoot.Tubby Smith is just fine with a slower game, since defense is the key to his Gophers right now. With their backs to the wall on Thursday they held Wisconsin to 52 points on 30.5 percent shooting, and that is where the focus goes here, especially since their own offense can not speed up well as they continue to play without a natural point guard (they have not reached 70 points in regulation in a game since Al Nolen went down).Look for Indiana to set a slow early pace, and for Smith to be more than content to grind away with a second half lead. With the correct pointspread range telling us that there is precious little chance of any late-game scramble points, this Total has been set far too high.
4* OKLAHOMA CITY over NEW YORK
Oklahoma City is winning through excellent chemistry, with the pieces fitting together so well that the Thunder is way ahead of schedule considering the number of years this group has been together. At 31-21 they are playoff bound, and that chemistry does not show any better than a 13-1 ATS tally in regulation in their last 14 road games (we credit them for an underdog cover in an O.T. loss in that span). They have been road favorites three times in February, winning and covering at New Orleans, Golden State and Portland, and with four full days to prepare there is absolutely no chance of them taking the Knicks lightly – if anything, a chance to put on a show in Madison Square Garden creates an extra level of spark. And while the scoring of Kevin Durant makes most of the highlight reels, we take particular notice of the fact that they have moved all the way up to #3 on our best defensive ratings, trailing only the Celtics and Lakers.What does chemistry mean against the Knicks? For tonight, perhaps everything. New York is going to be a miss until all of the new faces can fit it, with Tracy McGrady, Sergio Rodriguez and Eddie House all particular puzzle pieces that will not be easy to assimilate easily. And they take the court without a back-up C behind David Lee, which creates problems for an already weak defense. But there is no particular urgency anyway. At 19-34 there is no intent to turn this season around; instead they are positioning for the upcoming free agent feeding frenzy that will take place this summer. Their lack of cohesion gets exploited by the precision of the Thunder tonight, and they may not fight all that hard to make a game of it.
Tony Taylor
Final Report
5* Southern Mississippi -6.5 (Conference USA GOY)
3* Utah State -7
SPORTS BANK
500 Southern Mississippi
Power Play Wins
Wake Forest -1.5
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* WASHINGTON STATE
5* Oregon State
5* East Carolina