Larry Ness
8* Creighton Pk
Northern Iowa has not been able to overcome the loss of the 6-6 O'Rear, who was lost for the season on Feb 2 vs Illinois St (broken ankle). The Panthers are 1-5 SU and ATS since and while the guard trio of Ahelegbe (14.3-3.1-2.9), James (12.7) and Moran (9.4) is solid, the 6-9 Koch (9.8-5.0) simply has NO help inside. Creighton is playing with revenge from a Jan 26 loss at Cedar Falls (71-66) and here at home, the Blue Jays are a solid 14-3 SU. Young (13.7-4.6 APG) is having an excellent season at the point plus is joined by four players who add just under 20 PPG. However, it's up front where the Blue Jays will dominate, as 6-7 freshman McDermott (14.3-7.8), the coach's son, is joined by 6-9 Rutgers transfer Echenque (10.6-3.6) and 6-9 holdover Lawson (8.8-5.6). That trio will be WAY too much for Koch to handle. Lay the points.
Sports Bank
500* Oregon State
PPP
5% San Diego State
4% Akron
4% UCLA
4% Florida
4% Alabama
4% Mississippi State
4% Idaho
Chip Chirimbes
Texas vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado +6½
We've had a great run with the Texas Longhorns but now the worm has turned so-to-speak. Now, don't get me wrong, I believe that the Longhorns has as good a chance as any of getting to the Final Four because they play great defense and they can put it in the hoop but, there are points in every teams schedule that just don't make it and this is that points for them.
Joseph D'Amico
Alabama vs. Mississippi
Play: Alabama +1
Alabama boasts the best record in the SEC West at 11-2. However, they are 19-8 overall. The Tide needs a 20-win season and a better non-conference record to ensure a ride to the Big Show. They come into this contest winning 14 of 16 SU and going 12-3 ATS. Alabama has one of the best tandem of Forwards in the nation with JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The pair are combining for 31.9 PPG and 14.6 RPG. Throw in Guard Trevor Releford (10.3 PPG) and ‘Bama has one solid offensive unit. But, it is their defense that has earned them a lot of attention. They hold opponents to a mere 57.9 PPG. They face a Mississippi squad that has dropped 3 of their L4 SU and 4 of their L5 ATS. In their L3 losses, the Rebels have allowed 74, 71, and 79 points. They rank at or near the bottom in the SEC allowing 36% beyond the arc and 43% FGs. Guards Chris Warren and Zach Graham can score (33.2 PPG combined) but in their 74-64 loss to Alabama 2 weeks ago, Warren was shut down (2-10 shooting) by Guard Senario Hillman. The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS their L6 at the Rebels, 5-0 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600, and 14-3 ATS their L17 vs. the SEC. the Rebels are 2-5 ATS their L7 as a favorite, 1-4 ATS their L5 as a home fav, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the SEC. take Alabama.
Matt Fargo
Texas A&M at Baylor
Pick: Baylor -2
I played on Texas A&M in the first meeting but Baylor ended up coming away with the upset in overtime. Conventional thinking would be to take the Aggies once again in what is a revenge situation but that is not a strong angle here. Texas A&M has won five straight games since that loss to the Bears but let’s break that down. The first was an overtime win against Colorado which has some merit but the last four games have come against the bottom four teams in the conference, two of which came at home. The Bears have dropped two straight games including a loss at Missouri last time out by 18 points. That pushed them down to 6-7 in the conference with very little life remaining for an NCAA Tournament bid unless they can win the Big XII Conference Tournament. What came prior to that Missouri loss should have Baylor seething as in its last home game, it lost to Texas Tech, which is 4-9 in the conference and that loss was inexcusable. The only other home loss this season came against Kansas. Baylor dropped to 29-3 at home over the last two seasons so despite that debacle against the Red Raiders, it is extremely tough on its home floor. Making the atmosphere even bigger here is that it is a Saturday night game against a ranked opponent and the line gives us a great situation. The Bears are an unranked home favorite playing a ranked road underdog and playing these home teams has been a very profitable endeavor over the years. Look for the Bears to keep their slim hopes alive. 9* Baylor Bears
David Malinsky
4* SAN DIEGO over GONZAGA
There have been fewer cycles more frustrating this season than our repeated “sins of omission” with San Diego in recent weeks. Back on February 10th we turned a 4* ticket behind the Torreros at San Francisco, noting how a young squad was working hard to improve instead of just playing out the schedule, and also how getting 6-11/285 Chris Gabriel in playing shape was paying dividends. That one was lost when the Dons hit a long triple on their last possession at the end of the shot clock, and instead of coming right back we stayed on the sidelines. Since then, of course, the San Diego has shattered the spread by 39 points over three easy covers, including that outright upset of St. Mary’s, and a tough loss vs. Portland on Thursday when the Torreros had the outright lead with 3:30 remaining before coming up short down the stretch. But we get the chance to go back to the well here because the markets simply have not adjusted for those improvements.
It is not just a case of San Diego playing with confidence here, but also with a high degree of physical energy. This will only be the second game in 11 days, and being at home for two full weeks has meant a lot of time on the practice court, which showed in the St. Mary’s and Portland results. Now there is also the added emotion of SR night for starters Devin Ginty and Matt Door, so we will get everything that this team has to give.
It is a much different story for Gonzaga. While the host is playing for just the second time in 11 days it is four games in 10 for the Bulldogs, accentuated by Thursday’s showdown at St. Mary’s not only starting an hour later than usual, but also extending to O.T., which meant 42 floor minutes for Steven Gray, 39 for Marquise Carter and 38 for Elias Harris. It was the kind of draining win that will take both a physical and emotional toll, and while they still do need a “W” to clinch at least a tie for the conference regular-season crown, that is all they need – just get the win and move on, with the margin not of any consequence. They will have a tough time forcing San Diego out of a slow early pace, and will end up just grinding away here.
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma +14
After back-to-back home blowouts of Colorado and Oklahoma State, the powerful Jayhawks look to be an easy choice over an Oklahoma team that's just 4-8 SU in Big 12 play. That's until we note that Kansas is coming off a same-season revenge game versus the Cowboys (OSU handled the 'Hawks in their last meeting, 85-77) while heading into a contest against the revenge-minded Sooners. All of which leads to this stunning stat: the Jayhawks are just 3-9-1 ATS as conference road chalk off a revenger when taking on a foe seeking revenge - including 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS when facing a sub .666 opponent. In addition, KU is 0-4 ATS as road favorites of more than six points this season when facing an opponent off a loss. Jeff Capel's struggling Sooners need this like blood in order to keep their faint post-season tourney chances from flat-lining and they've actually held their own in this series, going 16-9 ATS overall and 6-1 ATS as home dogs (5-0 ATS when getting 5.5 or more points). Don't be surprised to see OU challenge Kansas inside in an effort to get to the free throw line: the Sooners clicked on 13-of-15 against Kansas State on 2/19 and currently rank second in Big 12 foul shooting percentage. With the Sooners a surprising 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS as home dogs off a loss of 14 or more points since 1990, it's a take. We recommend a 3-unit play on Oklahoma. Thank you and good luck as always.
The Duke's Sports
Michigan (+5) for 2 Units
Both teams are coming off losses and fading fast in the minds of the NCAA selection committee; however, Michigan is playing well on an 8-1 ATS tear, including a big cover at home as a 4 point dog to Wisconsin. And Michigan's youthful bunch has grown up quickly. In the second half of the season, they've won outright at Michigan State, covered at OSU, won at Penn State. The Wolverines won in their last two trips to Minnesota. As for the Gophers, they are on a 1-6 SU slide. It is apparent they miss Al Nolen (foot) who was a big contributor on both sides of the floor for them. We'll look for the Wolverines to remain competitive here.
Don Wallace Sports
3* Celtics -7.5
Helmut
Yale Over 129.5
Samford Under 133
Ben Burns
Milwaukee Bucks
Michigan Under
RAS
Colorado Under 142.5
KELSO
200 Units Long Beach St -6
15 Units Miami-OH -7
10 Units Duke -4.5
5 Units Rice -5
3 Units Wisc Milwaukee -4.5
DR Bob
3* VA Tech
2* Valparaiso
2* Ball St
2* Long Beach St