Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, February 5,2011

Joseph D'Amico

Washington State vs. Oregon State
Play: Washington State -3

WSU is a respectable 15-7 on the season. However, the Cougars are sitting at 5th in the PAC 10 at 5-5 in Conference play. The team comes off of a humiliating 69-43 defeat against rival Oregon, a game in which Washington State was a 2 ½ point favorite. They must win this matchup in order to make up some ground in the Conference. The tandem of Guards, Klay Thompson and Faisal Aden are combining for 35.7 PPG. 6’8’’ 255 lb. Forward, DeAngelo Castro is a true force in the paint and will out-muscle counterpart Joe Burton. The Cougars spanked the Beavers in their only meeting TY, 84-70. In that victory, WSU shot 50.9% from the field, holding OSU to a mere 33.8% shooting. Prior to their 68-56 outright win over Washington in their last game, Oregon State dropped 6 of their L7 both SU and ATS. Jared Cunningham is leading the Beavers with 13.9 PPG. The Guard has given opponents problems this season. But his supporting cast just doesn’t have the talent to compete in this one. The ATS numbers slightly favor Oregon State, but they are due for a let down after besting Washington outright as a 13 point ‘dog. The opposite goes for Washington State. They will come back strong after their dreadful loss to Oregon as a 2 ½ point favorite. The Cougars get the win and the cover.

Hello Blade,

Any chance of getting Bobby Maxwell today?

Thanks!

MR EAST

3 UNITS: DALLAS MAVERICKS -2

The Dallas Mavericks really struggled when Dirk Nowitski went down with an injury. The Mavericks played 9 games without Nowitski and promptly dropped 7 of them, so you can see what he means to this team. Going into the game against Boston last night the Mavs have won 6 straight times. The Bobcats are coming off a successful road trip where they won 4 of 6 games, but 5 of those games were vs losing teams. Their last 6 at home vs winning teams show them losing 5 of them and the 1-5 straight up mark shows they lost by a total of 81 points to these teams. They now stand at 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 at home vs a winning team. I'll go with Dallas in tis one.

Maddux Sports

10 Units Rhode Island +12
10 Units Washington -8
10 Units Loyola Chicago +5
10 Units Southern Miss +5.5

Early Card

EZWinners

James Madison
UCLA
UNLV
Nebraska
Seton Hall
Missouri
Kentucky

Great Lakes Sports

Bobcats
Lakers

GOY Duquesne
Virginia Tech
George Mason
Kent State
Florida

STEVE BUDIN

25 DIME - MISSOURI

Ben Burns

10* Missouri
10* Phoenix Coyotes
9* Washington Wizards
9* Charlotte Bobcats
9* Golden St
9* Butler
8* UCLA Under
8* Boston Bruins Under

MATT RIVERS

Iowa

George Mason

JOEL TYSON

Washington U

JAY MCNEIL

Temple

CRAIG DAVIS

Duquesne

BRETT ATKINS

Kansas

TRACE ADAMS

Alabama

Chuck O'Brien

Oklahoma State

Two Minute Warning

Drexel

Al DeMarco

Cleveland State

DEREK MANCINI

Boston College

CHRIS JORDAN

Temple

BIG AL

3 Game Package
Cent Fl
Arkansas St
Idaho

Roadkill
Northwestern

A 10 GOY
Rhode Island

Green Bay

Wayne Root

Perfect Play - S. Florida
No Limit - Florida
Billionaire - Northwestern

ATS Insider

Strong
TCU +22

Regulars
Butler +4.5
Old Dominion +6

Jeff Benton

30 Dime Maryland

10 Dime Texas A&M

Maryland

Am I worried about a letdown here with the Terps, who are likely still smarting from Wednesday’s disappointing 80-62 home loss to Duke – a result that snapped Maryland’s three-game winning streak? A little bit. And am I worried about Maryland’s spread-covering troubles at home this year (2-7 ATS overall, including 0-3 ATS in ACC home games). Sure.

But do those two concern trump the talent discrepancy in this matchup? Hell no. Because while Maryland (14-8) has been slightly better than mediocre this season, Wake Forest has been downright dreadful. The Demon Deacons enter this game having lost 10 of their last 12, including Tuesday’s 85-61 beat-down at Florida State as a 19-point underdog.

Wake Forest last Saturday pulled off a slight upset of Virginia (76-71 as a four-point home underdog), but aside from that, here are the final scores of the Demon Deacons’ other six ACC contests this year:

90-69 (at N.C. State)
74-55 (vs. Maryland at home)
94-65 (at Virginia Tech)
74-39 (at Georgia Tech)
83-59 (vs. Duke)
85-61 (at Florida State)

Pull out the calculator and you’ll see that Wake Forest’s six conference losses were by an average of 25.3 points per game, including road defeats of 29, 29, 35 and 24 points! Not shockingly, the Deacons failed to cover in all six losses.

Throw in defeats at Richmond (90-74), at Xavier (83-75) and to UNC-Wilmington on a neutral court (81-69 as an eight-point favorite!) and Wake Forest has dropped seven straight away from Winston-Salem.

Including last month’s 19-point win at Wake Forest (as a 14-point road favorite), Maryland has won three in a row in this rivalry (3-0 ATS) and seven of eight. As for a potential hangover after the loss to Duke, note that the Terps are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after a double-digit home loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a non-cover. Maryland has also still cashed in 20 of its last 28 conference games.

Blowout city here, as Maryland comes out angry after the Duke debacle and rolls by 25.

Texas A&M

How do you lay points with a team that’s dropped three of its last four games by margins of 21, 9 and 20 points, scoring just 48 and 49 points in the last two games? Well, you start by explaining that two of those losses came to Texas (home and road), and the other was to Nebraska (also on the road).

Then you mention that prior to Monday’s 69-49 home loss to Texas (I had a 5 Dime winner on the Longhorns in that one!), Texas A&M had been a perfect 12-0 at home this season, outscoring visitors by an average of nearly 16 ppg (74.7-59). That includes three wins over three solid Big 12 outfits (Oklahoma State, Missouri and Kansas State). And going back to last year, the Aggies are on an 11-4-1 ATS run in College Station.

While we’re having the home-road discussion, let’s talk about Baylor’s splits. The Bears – like Texas A&M – are 12-1 at home. Away from Waco? 2-6 SU and ATS, including three straight Big 12 road losses at Iowa State (72-57 as a 1 ½-point favorite), Kansas State (69-61 as a six-point underdog) and Oklahoma State (73-66 as a 4½-point favorite). Going back to the Iowa State loss, Baylor has dropped four of its last six (including a 20-point home loss to Kansas), and it has cashed just one ticket in its last seven games, all within the Big 12 (part of Baylor’s miserable 4-10 ATS record for the season.

One more point to make on the home-road theme: The host is 4-0 in this rivalry the last four years, with Texas A&M covering the spread in all four games. In fact, the Aggies are on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS roll against Baylor!

Finally, with both teams coming off defeats, it’s interesting to note that Texas A&M has clearly been the more profitable team in bounce-back situations, going 37-16 ATS in its last 53 after a loss (17-8 ATS last 25 after a non-cover), while the Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU loss (1-5 ATS last six after a non-cover).

Bottom line: This figures to be a very low-scoring game – Baylor allows less than 62 ppg; Texas A&M yields less than 60 ppg – but in the end the Aggies will score enough and frustrate the Bears’ offense (which has produced 66, 61, 57 points in last three road games) to cover this impost.

RAS

UL Lafayette -4
Northern Arizona -3
Idaho State -3
Arkansas State -1.5
Pacific -3.5