Marty Otto
20* Richmond -1
Scott Rickenbach
9* California -3
Power Play Wins
Kansas State -5.5
Hot Shot Sports
3* SA Spurs
3G Wins
10* Texas
Mike Lineback
4* (*POD*) Thunder/Warriors Over 215
4* Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
Tony George
Pitt -4.5
Like Pitt at home to bounce back here tonight. Off 2 straight losses, and in REVENGE mode at home in conference play against Seton Hall here after losing last month on the road in this game by 3 points. A nice setup for Pitt who will be focused in for a good game as they continue to slip in the rankings here, Seton Hall will get their best shot at home tonight in what I feel may be a 8-10 point win for the Panthers. The Pirates just 3-7 ATS their last 10 against Big East Foes. Play 1 unit on Pitt.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Texas -6.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on Texas:
The ninth-ranked Longhorns will try to build on their first road victory in nearly three weeks and hand the Sooners their first home loss this season and second in 32 games in Norman on Saturday.
Texas (19-3, 5-2 Big 12) got a much-needed 72-60 victory at Oklahoma State on Monday night despite three starters scoring a combined eight points, including two from struggling center Dexter Pittman.
The Longhorns, though, got a career-high 27 points from freshman Jordan Hamilton, who helped his team rally from an 11-point deficit in the first half.
With Hamilton’s help, Texas avoided a third consecutive road defeat and beat an opponent away from home for the first time since Jan. 13. The win also helped erase the sting of an overtime home loss to No. 20 Baylor last Saturday.
Not only is Texas 5-2 SU its last seven on the road, it always plays the Sooners tough; 7-1 ATS its last eight vs. Oklahoma.
On the other side of the court: Oklahoma (12-9, 3-4) isn’t vying for the conference lead because of four straight road defeats, including a 63-46 loss to Nebraska last Saturday. It was the program’s lowest scoring output since putting up 45 in back-to-back losses to the Longhorns and the Cornhuskers in 2007-08; I expect another letdown today.
Texas needs a victory in this matchup ahead of a visit Monday night from top-ranked Kansas. The Longhorns, trying for their 11th straight 20-win season, trail the Jayhawks by two games in the Big 12 race.
Keep in mind that Oklahoma is a poor 2-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77 plus points per contest.
Bottom line: Texas is also an awesome 5-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in its previous contest; when taking all of the above into account, my *10* BLOWOUT ESPN "GOY" is on TEXAS
Marc Lawrence
Utah -5
The Jazz will be looking to avoid a four-game season sweep at the hands of the visiting Nuggets and they have plenty of ATS ammo at their disposal. For starters, they are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS as home favorites when playing with same-season triple revenge exact. One of those three losses occurred in this building in early January. The Nuggets had the luxury of four days of rest before ringing in the New Year in Salt Lake City. That won’t be the case this evening in the Delta Center as they arrive off last night's showdown with the Lakers. A trip to the Staples Center is always tough but tonight’s contest may provide even more trouble for ‘Melo and company as they take on a Utah squad that is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS at home this season versus unrested opposition – winning by an average margin of 21 points! While the visitors must deal with this back-to-back scheduling nightmare, the hosts are closing out a cozy four-game homestand which hasn’t seen them play since Wednesday. That’s additional firepower for Jerry Sloan’s troops as they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home in this series with two or more days of rest. Denver has been firing blanks on the road this season against quality opposition (5-14 ATS away versus .300 or greater foes) and we’ll look for that to continue tonight against a Utah squad that is a dominating 39-7 SU and 26-19-1 ATS at home in this series since 1990. We recommend a 4-unit play on Utah.
Rocketman
Michigan +1
Opposite Action Plays
Michigan +1
Lenny Del Genio
New Jersey +7.5
This is a rare opportunity to play on the hideous Nets, who come in at 4-45 straight up and are on pace to become the worst team in NBA history. However, the Pistons shouldn't be favored by this many points against ANYBODY as evidenced by their ugly 107-83 loss to Indiana, of all teams, last night. The public seems to agree as this line moved a full point early. Still, Detroit only beat New Jersey by four points when these teams met in East Rutherford on Tuesday and note that was the Nets lone non-cover in their last six games. The Pistons are not a good home team, certainly when compared to previous years in Auburn Hills. They are just 24-43 ATS their last 67 games at the Palace and 12-29 ATS when favored by 3.5 to -9.5 points on any court. They are also 4-14 ATS off a division loss. Getting back to the home woes, they are just 3-9 SU/ATS last 12 home games and since Dec 23 have lost to the likes of Toronto (by 30), Miami (by 27), New York (by 17), Chicago (by 11), Philadelphia (by 10) and Indiana (by eight). Take New Jersey.
Dave Malinsky
4* CLEVELAND/NEW YORK Over
Last night we stepped in early to take advantage of a weak line as
the Knicks switched into a different gear with Nate Robinson in the
starting lineup, and the result was an easy Over that came home by 20
points, with each stanza generating at least 50. This is more of the
same. We will see more of Mike D?Antoni?s preferred uptempo tactics,
which he simply could not run with the slumping and worn down Chris
Duhon at PG, and D?Antoni has resigned himself to what things will be
like in the weeks ahead ? the Knicks will have some explosive moments
in the open court, but will also become even weaker defensively.
The best way for them to compete in Cleveland is to run, since the
Cavalier half-court sets are far superior. They have no ability to
even slow down LeBron, nor deal with Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas down
low, so they come out and attack and hope to scramble the game. That
leaves plenty of openings for a rested and well-oiled Cleveland
offensive machine, and note just how effective the Cavaliers have
been on this home stand without Maurice Williams and Delonte West,
averaging 107 points on 49.6 percent shooting. The scoring could have
easily been higher, but in routing the Clippers, Grizzlies and Heat
they were letting up in the latter stages (only 71 points in the
three fourth quarter?s). Now they have no need at all to back off ?
with nothing up until a Tuesday home game vs. the lowly Nets, Mike
Brown is entitled to put on a show in front of a Saturday night
crowd. Note that Brown has become more relaxed in such settings, with
a 3-0 run to the Over as a home favorite of -12 or more in calendar
2010.
4* UTAH over DENVER
Every once in a while a savvy coach will have a ?white flag? game,
and that is what we believe that we have for George Karl here. In
playing for the 5th time in seven days, with this being the fourth
different court in that span, he is dealing with an extremely tired
team, especially with high-profile road affairs against the Spurs and
Lakers in that span, and also being forced into O.T. vs. the Kings on
Monday. Without Carmelo Anthony it is all exacerbated, of course, but
the fact that the Nuggets were able to grab three wins out of this
cycle is also what makes it easier to let this one go. But now the
extreme of the setting get even worse, with last night?s later tipoff
than usual in Los Angeles because of television, and the loss of an
hour in this time zone transition, leaving the Nuggets gasping for
breath. At 34-16, and with Chauncey Billups having played over 160
minutes in the first four games of the cycle, Karl may not mind being
blown out at all.
The key, of course, is that he might not be able to do anything about
it anyway. After getting off to a sluggish start the Jazz have
finally found their way in an explosive 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS surge,
a span in which they have eight victories over teams that currently
sport winning records, five of those eight coming in double figures.
And now the Jazz come in rested, ready, and with a chip on their
shoulder after falling 119-112 in Denver back on January 17th,
naturally the only loss in this span. Utah has been home since
January 27th, coasting past the Kings, Mavericks and Trail Blazers by
a combined 32 points in the only three games since then, and they
have been off since Wednesday to put a game plan together for this
one. Jerry Sloan will have absolutely no sympathy for the Denver
issues here, using that superior depth to try to run the Nuggets off
the court, and our money says that he will be successful in doing
just that.
Those Denver road wins against the Lakers and Spurs this week do not
carry all that much weight in our processes ? they shot an almost
impossible 24-34 from 3-point range in those games, and are not going
to have anywhere near that level of success tonight. All those
results do is bring a much shorter line than we should be looking at,
in a game that the Jazz easily extend the final margin into double
figures.
4* SAN ANTONIO/L.A. CLIPPERS Over
Ordinarily when an assistant is elevated to a head coaching spot we
do not see major changes, but that is not going to be the case with
the Clippers as Kim Hughes takes over. It is not just that he wants
to loosen things up and play at a different pace than Mike Dunleavy,
it is that the players want it also. And with the markets making some
mistakes in their read of this matchup we can get into play right
from the opening tipoff.
First we have to note that the Clippers have weapons. They scored
over 100 points in every January home game, including topping the
century mark vs. the Lakers and Cavaliers, with the ability to score
both inside and out. Their struggles on that long and arduous road
trip had much to do with the scheduling nature of that grind, and
Chris Kaman missing so much time. Now they get a badly needed couple
of days off to physically recoup from that trip, and also adjust to
the Hughes systems. And they are looking forward to it. First from
the new coach - "We need to shorten the intelligence factor and
make things simpler. I'm really trying to get our energy back. And
trying to make this fun." Then floor leader Baron Davis -
"Game to game the element of fun and excitement was few and far
between. For the talent that we have and the type of players that we
have, we have to play at a very high level. And it has to be fun to
keep everybody engaged." And finally Kaman - "The guys really
like his (Hughes) style. It's just a different face and a different
voice and a different attitude than Coach Dunleavy. There's going to
be a lot of things that are done differently."
We believe that we see it happen immediately, largely because the
Spurs allow for such a flow. We have been closely watching to see if
their defensive rotations could get to the usual Gregg Popovich
levels, but the bottom line is that it may not happen with this
group. They just had a six-game home stand with no back-to-backs
involved, which was the ideal setting to build the chemistry, and it
simply did not happen. If anything they have become weaker on that
end of the court, allowing four straight opponents, and five of the
last six, to shoot over 50 percent. That includes what had been a
slumping Houston team; a tired Chicago team near the end of a long
road trip; Denver playing without Carmelo Anthony; a brutally
struggling Sacramento squad without Jason Thompson; and Portland
without Brandon Roy. That is an ouch. San Antonio will continue to
run great sets (#7 on our best offensive ratings), and we might even
see more of Tony Parker and George Hill playing together, creating an
even smoother flow with the ball, as Popovich comes to the
realization that to win this season means out-gunning the opposition,
rather than shutting them down.
6* KANSAS STATE over IOWA STATE
We have been able to put three Kansas State tickets in our pockets
over the last three weeks, including each of the last two games, and
not only does that ride continue, but we can even accelerate the pace
here ? Frank Martin?s physical Wildcats are only going to get better
down the stretch because of their tenacity and depth, and this is a
soft opponent that they can push around.
As we have noted often, no team in the nation plays harder for the
full 40 minutes than the Wildcats, and in going 18-4 against one of
the most difficult schedules in the land (#4 Sagarin and #6 Pomeroy),
they are developing to a special level of toughness and intensity.
That showed in Tuesday?s 76-57 road domination of Nebraska ? instead
of having a major letdown off of that draining O.T. loss to Kansas
last weekend, they maintained their intensity level and played one of
their best games of the season. Now they have had three full days off
since that win, and they do not play again until a home game vs.
Colorado next Saturday, so they come in fresh, focused and with no
reason to be holding anything back. And Martin brings a 5-0 SU and
3-1-1 ATS tally vs. Greg McDermott into play (the only pointspread
failure was by a half point), with even better matchups than through
the first five encounters.
While Kansas State can extend that physical play the entire game
because of outstanding depth (nine players go at least 10 minutes per
game, and in Big 12 play six are going at least 20), which is part of
why the Wildcats lead the conference in offensive rebounding, Iowa
State is simply soft. Having lost Lucca Staiger, Charles Boozer and
Jamie Vanderbeken the Cyclones are down to basically a six-man
rotation, and it is showing ? since Staiger left they have gone 1-4
SU and 0-4-1 ATS, allowing an average of 79.4 points per game in that
span. But our key today is that it is even worse than that.
The only win from the diminished Iowa State roster came by a single
point at home vs. Colorado, and the Cyclones do not likely get that
one if key Buffalo cog Alec Burks had not been injured two minutes
into the game. They lost at Oklahoma when the Sooners were without
Willie Warren and Tony Crocker. Earlier this week they caught Baylor
in a perfect setting, right after the Bears had upset Texas on the
road, yet were whipped by 21, and there were awful signs galore in
the second half, when Baylor had more offensive rebounds than I.S.U.
had defensive caroms. The Bears also got seven dunks after
intermission alone. Even when Kansas came here two weeks ago the
Jayhawks were in a look-ahead mode to facing Missouri in a nationally
televised Monday Night showdown, yet they rolled the Cyclones 84-61.
Now McDermott?s team has to take the ?A? game from an opponent they
do not match up well against at all.
Want to do a simple comparison? So far in Big 12 play there have been
four examples in which these two have played the same opponents on
the same court. At Baylor, Kansas State wins by +23. At Nebraska
Kansas State wins by +16. Home vs. Kansas it is Kansas State by +23
in regulation. Home vs. Texas it is Kansas State by +16. That is an
average advantage of +19.5 per game, and it is real, with the gap
between these teams only getting wider as the schedule progresses.
6* CALIFORNIA over U.C.L.A.
This can only be billed as a Pac 10 showdown, which is how it has to
be perceived when the teams are among a group tied for first place in
the conference. But there is a big gap between them in terms of
experience, talent and the matchups for this encounter, and with some
major basketball pendulums also in play what is being priced as a
close game instead turns into a rout.
So how did we get to this point? Of Cal?s four Pac 10 losses three
were absolutely point black, including a big lead getting away in a
76-75 home loss in O.T. to these Bruins. That result that defied the
true matchup, with U.C.L.A. going 9-20 from 3-point range, vs. only
2-18 from the Bears, who are much better from long range. Meanwhile
Ben Howland?s team has escaped with a series of point blank wins,
with four of the conference victories by four points or less. But
what has made them tick of late ? his switch to an almost full-time
deployment of a zone defense ? turns around today.
Three games back we cashed an easy 6* ticket with Cal at Arizona
State, noting how the Bears were among the most difficult teams to
zone in the nation. The Patrick Christopher/Jerome Randle back-court
will end up among the all-time Division I leaders in combined career
starts for any duo, and not only are they accurate from 3-point
range, but Randle in particular can extend about as far as anyone in
the nation. He and Theo Robertson have each knocked down better than
40 percent of their triples in their careers, and Randle,
Christopher and Robertson have made a combined 475 triples while
wearing Bear uniforms. You are not going to beat this team with a
zone, although Howland has gotten away with it the past couple of
weeks because the Pac 10 is not loaded with perimeter shooters this
season. And with Jorge Gutierrez now at full health (27 solid minutes
without his knee brace on Thursday night), it is even easier for Cal
to exploit a zone, with Randle and Christopher able to move to the
wings for shots instead of having to direct traffic on each
possession.
U.C.L.A. has been surviving on the guile of the coach and a scrappy
roster that plays hard, but lacks typical Westwood talent. A slow
start took some of the pressure off of this group, but now it is
right back on again, and we would not be surprised if they were
exploited badly, with Cal comfortably controlling the floor play, and
that major edge in free throw shooting (74.2 percent vs. 62.3)
helping to gradually break this one open.
4* SOUTHERN MISS over HOUSTON
This pointspread does not reflect the current state of affairs
between these teams in Conference USA at all ? Houston is just a half
game ahead of Southern Miss in the standings (4-4 vs. 3-4), and the
recent trending is even more significant, with the Cougars just 1-3
in their last four starts, while it has been three straight wins for
Larry Eustachy?s Golden Eagles. But the markets still have a bias
towards ?pretty? rather than ?gritty?, and that is what brings this
extreme value.
What Houston does best jumps out ? Aubrey Coleman leads the nation in
scoring, and when the Cougars get out into the open floor they bring
a lot of style. But there simply is not much substance. As a team
they are shooting just 40.7 percent from the field, while allowing an
alarming 47.5, and they are being out-rebounded by -8.7 per game.
Outside of Coleman only Kelvin Lewis is averaging in double figures,
and the lack of depth is already taking a toll in the recent slide.
Three times in the last four games they have been out-rebounded in
double figures, and two of those opponents shot better than 50
percent. There is no way to correct those flaws, and with Coleman,
Lewis and Maurice McNeil all playing the full 40 minutes in
Wednesday?s loss at U.T.E.P., after that trio had gone 113 of a
possible 120 vs. Marshall last Saturday, they are only going to wear
down even more as the schedule progresses.
There are no such issues for Southern Miss, with seven different
players averaging at least 20 floor minutes in league play, and
because of their depth and tenacity the Golden Eagles are becoming
the epitome of a ?Tough Out?. They have held six straight CUSA
opponents under 60 points, and in their last three league road
outings that defense has helped them to cover the spread by a
combined 33 points. They can use their fresher legs and deeper
rotation to force the kind of grinding pace that Houston does not
play well at, and it has them alive to the final possessions to win
the whole game outright, with the points being offered a comfortable
cushion.
4* NEW MEXICO STATE over SAN JOSE STATE
In a game that is going to be played at a brisk pace, energy and
focus make a big difference over the course of 40 minutes. We saw
that happen in the first go-round between these teams, when San Jose
State won 93-84, a defeat that was largely due to the energy
pendulums being stretched to an extreme. But now they go the other
way, and they do it in a fashion that turns this one into a blowout.
Do you think that the host Aggies will be focused here? That earlier
road defeat keeps them from having sole possession of first place in
the W.A.C., and it is a game that they walked away knowing they were
the better team. They had nine fewer turnovers and two more rebounds
in that contest, controlling the floor game, and they led by nine at
halftime. But they were caught in what might be the toughest physical
grinder of any conference trip, playing the Spartans on the way back
from a win at Hawaii, with only one day off in between. It took a
toll, and they simply could not make their shots, going just 28-71
from the field, while S.J.S. hit 31-55 vs. those tired defensive
legs, including 12-20 triples. It was a fluky result, but it did not
throw the Aggies off track ? they responded in their next game by
whipping Louisiana Tech on the road by 14 points. Not only was it
their best outing of the season, but it was the only game they have
played since the earlier loss to the Spartans. It means that they
have had a full week on campus to practice for this revenge match,
and about as fresh of legs as any team in the nation will have for
this time on the calendar.
San Jose State is not accustomed to being the hunted, with a short
rotation and weak defense that are easy to exploit, and this time the
Spartans are the ones with fatigue as an issue, having to travel from
Thursday?s loss vs. Louisiana Tech in Ruston to Las Cruces. That is
an awkward itinerary, and it does not help that Mac Peterson and
Justin Graham each played 38 minutes, and Adrian Oliver 37, on
Thursday. Now a defense that is nothing special at the best of times
(they allowed 50 percent shooting combined in their last two losses
on the road, and earlier in W.A.C. road play both Nevada and Fresno
State shot at least 50 percent) can be fully turned inside out. The
Spartans are the rare team that does not take the ball away or defend
shooters well, generating only 97 turnovers in nine conference games.
Contrast this with that N.M.S. back-court of Jahmar Young (21.2 ppg)
and Jonathan Gibson (18.8), who are not only explosive scorers, but
also value the ball ? as a team that Aggies only have 77 TO?s in
eight league games, and four of the five starters post a positive
assist-to-turnover ratio.
Go back to the first encounter and you see what this matchup can
bring ? New Mexico State had 71 field goal attempts, 24 FT attempts,
and just six turnovers. And that was when playing very tired, and
with little preparation time. Now the Aggies bring the energy and the
focus to score at will here, and the Spartans will have a difficult
time finding the legs to hang in from behind.
Wunderdog
New Jersey at New York Rangers
Pick: 3 Units New Jersey -130
Dave Malinsky
4* BOISE STATE/IDAHO Under
A rather crucial game between two intense rivals, with neither having a smooth offensive flow and both defenses having ample time to put a game plan together, would tell us that points are a premium. But that is nothing new for a Don Verlin vs. Greg Graham matchup – in their first three head-to-head games since the former took over the Idaho program they have played to counts of 110, 122 and 124 in regulation. But in yet another case of where the marketplace bases projections more on overall mathematics than the particulars of a given matchup, we are given a more than generous Total to work with.Crucial game? Yes it is – these two are tied with Hawaii at 2-7 at the bottom of the W.A.C. standings, and only the top eight make it to the conference tourney. So the usual in-state rivalry gets taken up a notch, and much like that earlier O.T. affair at Idaho (a Total that would have fallen 121 if Anthony Thomas had not drained a triple at the buzzer), these two are going to guard each other tenaciously.That shot by Thomas may turn out to be a turning point in the Boise State season. With their backs to the wall at 0-7 in league play going in they reached back for their best defensive effort, and in their only game in nearly two full weeks since then they clamped down 65-49 against Fresno State. They can again put the clamps on a Vandal offense that is only averaging 61 points per game on the conference road, and having found a couple of victories by slowing the tempo they stay that course.There are no explosive scorers to be found here, with no player on either team averaging 15.0 per game. With each team knowing the other so well the offenses have long struggles to score, which makes this Total far too high