RAS
Nevada -9.5
Long Beach -1.5
Northridge -1.5
Boise -2
Pepperdine Pk
Jeff Benton
30 Dime BYU
15 Dime Illinois
BYU
Before we get to the reasons why I like the Cougars, let’s first focus on their opponent’s results to date.
Now, does Colorado State deserve credit for Wednesday’s 78-63 beat-down of UNLV in Las Vegas – winning outright as a 13-point road underdog? Of course (even though the Rebels were minus their senior leader/top scorer, who sat out with an injury).
Does Colorado State deserve credit for A) winning nine of its last 11 games, and B) covering the number in all four of its Mountain West games so far, not to mention 10 of its last 12 contests? Of course (even though the Rams were favored in five of their last seven outings and have faced the likes of TCU, Wyoming, Hampton, Dominican, San Francisco, Southern Miss, Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Northern Colorado since Dec. 20 – not one of which could hold BYU’s jock!).
If we agree on all that, then we must all agree on this, too: Colorado has faced three truly decent oppoaents so far: Kansas, UNLV and New Mexico. We already noted that the Rams knocked off UNLV. The other two games? 76-55 loss at Kansas (barely covering as a 21½-point road underdog) and 68-61 loss at New Mexico (barely covering as an 8½-point road underdog).
So, yes, Colorado State is 3-0 ATS (including two narrow coves) against its three toughest opponents of the season. Well, don’t you think that fact – along with the Rams’ ongoing 7-2 ATS run – has registered with the geniuses in Vegas? I would answer “definitely.”
At the same time, wouldn’t you agree that BYU has had Colorado State’s number recently? Seriously, check out these results (from the most recent – last year’s final meeting – going backward):
BYU 92, CSU 70
BYU 91, CSU 47
BYU 94, CUS 60
BYU 86, CUS 60
BYU 89, CSU 62
BYU 79, CSU 67
BYU 76, CSU 67
That’s not just seven wins in a row; that’s seven “you don’t belong on the same court as us” wins by margins of 22, 44, 34, 26, 27, 14, 19 and 11 points! And that includes three wins in Fort Collins of 22, 26 and 14.
Finally, if you believe in trends, hone in on these two:
1) BYU, which began the week with an 83-67 win over Air Force but failed to cash as a 20½-point home favorite, has now alternated spread-covers in its first four conference games, its last seven overall and 10 of its last 11. Therefore, the Cougars are due to colver a number … and a cheap number at that!
2) BYU is an astounding 17-5 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons!
Make it 18-5 ATS, as Jimmer Fredette (the leading scorer in the nation) and BYU put Colorado State in its place with a dominating 15-point win!
ILLINOIS
Ohio State – one three remaining undefeated teams in the nation – has been playing with fire for a couple of weeks now. And today, the 19-0 Buckeyes go down and go down hard, courtesy of 23rd-ranked (and ultra-talented) Illinois.
The Illini showed me a lot in Tuesday’s 71-62 victory over No. 17 Michigan State, not just the win itself or the fact they shot 53.2 percent from the field, but the way they completely stifled the Spartans’ offense down the stretch (Michigan State scored just 25 second-half points and didn’t get a point in the final 2½ minutes of the game).
Illinois now owns comfortable home wins over three quality Big Ten foes: Wisconsin (69-61), Northwestern (88-63) and Michigan State, cashing in all three contests. True, top-ranked Ohio State will provide the Illini with their stiffest test of the season. And true, Ohio State swept Illinois in three games last year (including a 7-point overtime win in the Big Ten tournament) and is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. That said – and despite their perfect record – the Buckeyes have had their molents of vulnerability this season – and recently, too.
Prior to Wednesday’s 70-48 rout of Iowa as a 20-point home favorite – and Iowa is awful – Ohio State barely survived five straight tightly contested games against the aforementioned awful Hawkeyes (73-68 road win), Minnesota (67-64 home win), Michigan (68-64 road win) and Penn State (69-66 home win). I’ll do the math for you: That’s four conference wins by a total of 15 points, all against mediocre teams.
Illinois will have some issues with Ohio State’s front-court size, but the Illini (10-0 at home, shooting 53 percent) will be able to overcome that deficiency with their speedy backcourt and a strong perimeter game on both ends of the court (Illinois ranks third in the nation in three-point shooting at 42.7 percent and 23rd in three-point defense at 29.4 percent).
Throw in a raucous crowd at Assembly Hall in Champaign – plus Ohio State’s free-throw struggles on the road (67 percent) – and I’m looking for a Illinois to get this one by at least six points.
DR BOB
2* OLE MISS -2.5
2* DARTMOUTH +21
2* LOY MD -6.5
2* ALABAMA -10.5
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Texas +7
3 Units Illinois +3.5
3 Units Arizona +2
3 Units Mavericks -5
Cal Sports
4* Pittsburgh
4* Texas A&M
3* Ball St
3* Ohio University
3* Creighton
Ben Burns
10* Vanderbilt
10* Detroit U
10* Wizards
10* Heat
9* Clippers Under
9* Illinois
8* Bucks Under
Chris Jordan
Ohio State
Syracuse Under
Santa Clara
Notre Dame
Oklahoma City
Teddy June
20* St.John's -2.5
20* Colorado State +7
10* Vanderbilt -4.5
10* Purdue -6
Carolina Sports
4* Drexel
4* Duquesne
3* Pittsburgh
3* Alabama
3* St Marys
3* Portland University
Power Play Wins
Arkansas LR / Florida Atlantic Over 130
Larry Ness
10* Notre Dame
10* North Texas
9* Hawaii
8* Alabama Birmingham
8* Xavier
8* Minnesota U
9* LA Clippers
Matt Fargo
Depaul
Kansas
Auburn
Notre Dame
East Carolina
The Duke's Sports
Colorado (-4) for 3 Units
The Buffaloes' new HC Tad Boyle is doing a fine job teaching his team the essentials of winning in the Big 12. The offense has improved dramatically from the previous coaching regime, they're rebounding well (+4.6 margin), and knocking down free throws at a 78% clip; at the same time, they're disciplined enough on the defensive end to get critical stops. The Sooners, however, have suffered a major fall-off after the post-Griffin era, declining in production over the last two years with limited talent. The Sooners are just 5-12 ATS in Big 12 play and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. They're coming off a win over an even more pathetic program -TX Tech. Colorado sports a 22-10-1 ATS mark on Saturdays and 39-19-1 ATS in Big 12 play. Their knock was that they couldn't win on the Big 12 road but managed to get over the hump on January 12 knocking off Kansas State easily. We'll look for Burks and company to deliver another Big 12 road victory.
Matt Fargo
Notre Dame
We won a big ticket with Notre Dame on Wednesday and while the game got closer than we wanted at the end, it was a relatively easy win and cover. We are coming back with the Irish here in what is a big revenge game as they lost in Marquette by 22 points just 10 days ago. Notre Dame is 12-0 at home this season and 0-3 on the road so that combined record of the true host being 15-0 is solid here. Going back, Notre Dame is 81-6 in its last 87 games at the Joyce Center including a solid 35-5 in its last 40 Big East home contests. Marquette is coming off a lopsided home win against DePaul to improve to 11-1 on its home floor. The Golden Eagles are 2-3 on the road which isn’t bad but the two wins came against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Rutgers so there are no quality road victories on the résumé. Notre Dame has played the 13th ranked schedule in the nation and going 7-4 against teams ranked in the top 50 while Marquette has played the 70th ranked schedule in the country and going 2-6 against the top 50. The Golden Eagles have been a covering machine as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games but you guessed it, that is not an ideal situation. Simply put, play against road underdogs or pickems after successfully covering the spread in seven or more consecutive games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. The Fighting Irish are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Matt Fargo
Depaul
Kansas
Auburn
Notre Dame
East Carolina
10* Illinois
10* Appalachian St