Brandon Lang
30 DIME - VANDERBILT COMMODORES -Just not afraid of the big bad wolf.
Off their outright loss at South Carolina as the #1 team in the country, this very young Kentucky squad takes on a veteran crew from Vanderbilt who returns all 5 starters from last year.
The Commodores come off an outright win at Tennessee as a 6 1/2 point underdog.
Now they step up and face arguably the most veteran team they will face all year long and the fact I am getting a full 8 points with this veteran team is good enough for me.
You look at the run Kentucky has had and you will see some very average efforts and according to Coach Calipari, "We were very fortunate to win a few of the games we did."
They barely beat Miami-Ohio out of the MAC conference, 72-70 earlier this year. As well as neutral court wins over Stanford in OT by 8, North Carolina by 2, Uconn by 3 and at Auburn by 5.
I don't think people realize just how young this team is and when you are playing a veteran team like Vandy, who is road tested and road tough, you are going to be hard pressed to blow them away.
First road contest started early with an outright win at St.Marys 72-70 as a 5 point underdog.
After going 2-1 SU and ATS in 3 neutral site games losing to Cincinnati by 9 but beating Chaminade by 27 and Arizona by 12, they had their only stumble of the year.
At Illinois, they lost by 11 as a 4 point dog followed by a neutral site loss to Western Kentucky but since that loss, they have been an ATM machine.
They have won 10 in a row SU and 7-2 ATS covering all 3 games they have been installed as the underdog beating Alabama 65-64 as a 1 1/2 point underdog, South Carolina 89-79 as a 1-point underdog and the aforementioned Tennessee Volunteers.
Let it be noted that is the same South Carolina team who just knocked off Kentucky on Tuesday.
I look for Kentucky to be the 3rd straight #1 team in the country this year to lose twice in one week as North Carolina and Texas have already done it, let's make Kentucky the 3rd this afternoon.
FREE SELECTION - GEORGIA BULLDOGS
ANTHONY REDD
60-Dime - Vanderbilt
50-Dime - Drexel
20-Dime - Louisville
20-Dime - Washington State
20-Dime - Colorado
RINKPLAY SPORTS
7* POD Toronto Maple Leafs over Vancouver Canucks
2* Montreal Canadiens over Ottawa Sens
2* Edmonton Oilers & Calgary Flames Over
Jeff Benton
40 Dime: WASHINGTON
10 Dime: BLAZERS
Washington
This play should NOT surprise you if you’ve been following me for the last 10 days. I told you a week ago today when I backed USC as a two-point home favorite against Washington that I figured the Huskies out. You go against them when they’re on the road (now 0-6 SU and ATS) and you back them at home (13-1 SU).
In their last three home games, the Huskies have crushed Pac-10 foes Stanford (94-61) and Cal (84-69), easily covering in both games, and then they stepped out of conference on Tuesday and whipped Seattle 123-76. (Seattle’s no slouch, either, as the Redhawks scored road wins at Utah and at Oregon State, plus a home win over Fresno State).
At home, Washington State averages 86.9 points, shoots 45.2 percent from the field and has an average rebounding edge of 8.4 boards per game (37.8-29.4). By comparison, in their four Pac-10 road losses, Washington has scored 61, 61, 70 and 51 points (60.8 ppg); shot 76-for-215 from the field, good for 35.3 percent; and has a minus-25 rebounding differential! Digest those stark contrasts – I can’t remember the last time I saw home-road splits like that in college basketball!
Not only that, but look at Washington State’s statistics on the road: The Cougars manage just 65.2 ppg and give up 73.5 ppg, and they get outshot by an eye-popping 47.4 percent to 41.5 percent margin, including 38.8 percent to 32.9 percent from 3-point land!
Now, obviously, this is a rivalry game and that element has to be factored into this game. But really, there’s no comparing the talent level of Washington and Washington State. The Huskies were picked my pretty much everyone to challenge Cal for the Pac-10 title, while the Cougars were pegged for the middle of the pack (at best). And while Washington has had its struggles this year (on the road, of course), the Cougars are just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in league play; in fact, they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.
If you take away a 65-60 home win over Oregon State (and Oregon State is easily the worst team in the league) and a 67-60 win at USC (the Trojans have no offensive firepower), here are the point totals Washington State has surrendered in its other Pac-10 games: 91, 76, 71, 93, 70 and 74. You can’t play that kind of defense and expect to hang with a Washington squad that lights up the scoreboard at home.
Last year, the Huskies swept the season series from Wazu, winning 68-48 on the road and 67-60 at home, and the talent gap between these rivals was much narrower than it is this year. Lay the chalk and watch Washington roll by at least 15 points!
Blazers
I know Portland is going to be without All-Star point guard Brandon Roy once again. I know Portland is on the second game of a back-to-back situation (after last night’s narrow loss at the Rockets. I know this is Portland’s sixth game since last Friday (and four of those have been on the road). Doesn’t matter. If you’re going to give me THIS many points in a game at Dallas, I’m taking them.
Why? Because as I told you earlier this week when I used a 20 Dime play on the Bucks +6½ points at Dallas (108-107 final), the Mavericks just can’t cover pointspreads at home. They’ve now cashed just one ticket in their last 16 home games (and that was a 102-95 victory over the Cavaliers as a 3½-point UNDERDOG!). You have to back to Nov. 18 for the last time the Mavericks covered as a home favorite (a 99-94 overtime win against the Spurs as a three-point chalk). In fact, that win capped a 4-0 ATS run at home for the Mavericks; since then, again 1-15 ATS at home, including 0-15 ATS as a favorite!
As tough a spot as the Blazers are in (sixth game in eight days), Dallas is in an equally tough spot. Going back to Jan. 17, Portland has played seven games in seven different cities, and the fatigue finally caught up with them Thursday at Phoenix, as they lost 112-106 as a two-point road underdog, getting outgained 28-16 in the decisive fourth quarter (after scoring 34, 25 and 31 points in the first three quarters).
As for the Blazers, they’re a .500 road team SU (not bad in the NBA), and they’ve cashed in seven of their last nine on the road. That includes last night’s spread-cover in Houston, and it includes an 85-81 victory at Dallas a month ago as a 5½-point underdog. True, Roy had a big hand in that win (team-high 23 points), but it was Portland’s length on defense that gave the Mavericks fits (Dirk Nowitizki with 27 points and point guard Jose Barea with 22 scored 49 of the Mavs’ 81 points, and take away their 19-for-29 shooting effort, and the rest of the Mavs were a combined 12-for-51!).
Finally, in addition to Dallas’ aforementioned struggles at home, the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and 0-12 ATS in their last 11 when laying big points (between 5 and 10½ points). Meanwhile, the Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog and this young, energetic squad has cashed in 11 of its last 14 games when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Also, the underdog is on a 4-1 ATS roll when these teams meet!
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - KANSAS JAYHAWKS
10 DIMER - VANDERBILT COMMODORES
40 DIMER - KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Since the Jayhawks got knocked from the # 1 spot in the land, Bill Self's team has come back to win 5 straight games. KU has covered their last pair of wins, and 3 of their last 4 games overall.
They catch the Wildcats off a close one at Baylor, a game in which the 'Cats were able to win. Kansas State is a young team on the rise, and their upset of then # 1 Texas on their home court earlier this month was their "signature" win of the year.
I don't think they will be able to knock off Kansas today, even in Manhattan, as the Jayhawks have been able to win and cover the last 3 series meetings, and Rock Chalk has also won 7 of the last 8 meetings, going 6-2 against the spread.
I will lay the short road wood with the Jayhawks, as I have a feeling the Baylor win the other night will have K-State a tad drained come crunch time.
10 DIMER - VANDERBILT COMMODORES
You knew the way the young Wildcats were playing them, that they would eventually get bit, and get bit they did at South Carolina this week.
Coach Cal has stated he has no idea how his team will play in this game, and while they should be able to notch the outright, Vanderbilt has the size to give Kentucky some trouble today at Rupp Arena.
Vanderbilt is riding a 10 game winning streak as they come into Lexington, and the 'Dores are also on a 7-1 spread run their last 8 lined games.
Kentucky is 5-6 against the spread at home, and while they should bounce-back today, it is important to note that the Commodores have gone toe-to-toe with Kentucky of late, as the season series is 2-2 split the last 4, and Vandy does own a 6-2 straight up mark the last 8 meetings.
Don't forget DeMarcus Cousins could be spending some time on the bench with disciplinary problems as well.
Take the points.
Craig Davis
80 Dime – GEORGETOWN
10 Dime – MAVERICKS
GEORGETOWN
One of the biggest reasons I backed Syracuse as a 25-dime winner Monday over Georgetown is because I truly believed, even though it was a rivalry game, the Hoyas were looking ahead to this game. Seriously, think about it... why else would bad teams beat good teams, or at least come pretty darn close to doing so? We're talking about 18-22 year old kids who can't possibly be expected to "get pumped" about all 30 (or so) games that they play during the regular season. Are you telling me Michigan State is only 7 points better than Iowa? I mean, Vegas had the Spartans listed as a 22-point favorite, so they know how much better they are. So why only a seven-point win? Or why did Kentucky just lose to a very average South Carolina team when it's perfectly clear they are far better. Lack of motivation, lack of defense, etc. It's easy for great players to "take it easy" once in a while, especially when they are playing bad teams or if they have their minds focused on an upcoming game.
For Michigan State, they just didn't take Iowa seriously that night. Kentucky got caught looking ahead and I also think they didn't take South Carolina as seriously as they probably should have. The same goes for Georgetown. Despite being a rival of Syracuse, they still have bitter feelings towards Duke from last year's debacle in Durham and I can guarantee you these kids have circled this rematch with the Blue Devils as soon as they got back home last year. Did they want to beat Syracuse? Sure they did. Did they give their best effort? Absolutely not... and they'll prove it the next time these two hook up in D.C. In the meantime, the Hoyas have a score to settle with the Dukies, and they're going to take care of business this afternoon in the nation's capitol in front of a sellout crowd that includes President Barack Obama.
Today's matchup between these two ranked teams is the final game of a four-game contract between the two schools that was made-for-TV... it gives the networks the ability to pick and choose the year and venue of each game. It first started in January of 2006 when the Hoyas hosted the then-#1 Blue Devils and knocked them from their perch, 87-84. The next two games took place in Durham, North Carolina and Duke proceeded to win both of those by 9. So, Duke has won both of their home games while the Hoyas won their home game, but Duke hasn't covered a single game in the first three of this four-game contract and I don't see that changing today. Duke earned a "push" last year at home when, in fact, Georgetown should have covered their third straight in this series. Remember, at a key stretch in the second half Georgetown F Greg Monroe was called for a ridiculous technical foul while he was on the bench. Even a year after the fact Monroe and HC John Thompson is still baffled as to why the refs decided to "T him up". The conclusion was that a rabid Georgetown fan behind the Hoyas bench was badgering the official and he assumed it was Monroe. The tech was called, the free throws were made, Duke got the ball back and hit a three. Game, set, match.
You can't tell me that sequence of events doesn't fire this team up. They want this game in the worst way... and if for nothing else to get them fired up for a home date (and rematch) with Villanova next weekend. Today's game is the first of a three-game homestand --- three very key games that, if they can go 3-0, would set them up nicely for a run at the Big East title. At home the Hoyas have dropped just one game SU, a 61-57 loss to Old Dominion in which they took the Monarchs too lightly in the first half and fell behind by 11 at the break. Since then they have been perfect in D.C. and I don't see that stopping today. Meanwhile, Duke has lived off their home crowd long enough (12-0 at home)... it's time for them to get back on the highway and take their medicine. The Blue Devils are a putrid 1-3 SU away from Cameron Indoor, dropping some ugly games to NC State, Georgia Tech and at Wisconsin. When they don't have the Cameron Crazies behind them to intimidate the opponent, they aren't nearly as tough to rattle.
Last year's matchup saw these two teams post nearly identical numbers, but Duke converted on three more three-point attempts which, ironically, was the difference in the game (9 points). Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer really struggled in that game, and if it weren't for Gerald Henderson hitting 10 of 15 shots from the field, Georgetown would have walked out of Durham with a win. Guess what... Duke doesn't have Henderson this year and I'm not sure if Duke has one player they can count on as the "go to guy" when the game is on the line like they did last year. I'm counting on the Hoyas winning this game with defense, three-point shooting and rebounding. Hoyas win by 7.
DALLAS MAVS
This line is a little fishy to me as I'm not sure if the Mavs, who haven't played their best basketball recently, should be favored by this many points over anyone at home right now. And that's exactly why I like them. Dallas has been atrocious ATS at home this year, yet Vegas feels like they need to list the Mavs as nearly a double-digit favorite? That's crazy. And I believe they are begging us to take the underdog in this situation, but I'm not buying it. Portland will be without Brandon Roy for yet another game tonight... a game that will be Portland's second straight and 6th in their last 8 days. Portland dropped another heartbreaker last night in Houston and now they're expected to go back on the road and gather the troops for a meeting against a very angry Dallas team? This just isn't a good spot for Portland who just simply wants to get back home. Dallas, meanwhile, had basically dominated for three quarters against the Suns Thursday night, but completely fell apart in the fourth quarter and dropped a 112-106 decision. While they were busy losing, their competition was winning and gaining ground in the West. I won't say this is a must win for the Mavs, but they want to get some confidence back before the All-Star break. I'm calling for a double digit win at home tonight as Portland just won't have enough left in the tank on this road trip. Mavs roll.
Jimmy Boyd
4* Atlanta Hawks/Orlando Magic Under 193.5
5* Game of the year- SMU +8
4* Letdown Game of the Month- Georgia +7.5
CHRIS JORDAN
BIG WEST GAME OF THE YEAR
2,000♦ PACIFIC TIGERS
500♦ CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Eric Degarde
2* Vanderbilt +8.5
2* Colorado +7.5
Frank Patron
40K Ark St -2
RAS
1.5 Units E Wash +1
S. Miss -2
UC Riverside +4
Pepperdine +2.5
ATS LOCK CLUB
8 Units Troy-8
8 Units N. Mexico St. +10
8 Units Cal. St Full -6
2 Unit Round Robin Parlay
6 Units Louisville +7
5 Units UAB -3
KELSO
50 Units Arkansas State -2
15 Units Notre Dame -6.5
5 Units Georgia +7
5 Units Duke -1.5
4 Units Northwestern +13.5
4 Units Louisville +7
3 Units Boise State -4.5
3 Units Vandy +8
THE BOOOOJ
25 Units Oregon (+1.5) over USC
25 Units Northwestern (+13) over Michigan State
KIKKI SPORTS
GOY - Kentucky
GOM - Missouri