Scott Rickenbach
9* (TOP PLAY) OVER the total in Denver vs New Orleans
As expected, with David West getting hurt in last night’s game, there has been a little movement here toward the under. What people fail to realize in a situation like this is that the Hornets defense arguably gets the worst of the impact when a guy like West fails to play. Keep in mind, he’s no longer in there to clean the defensive glass. That leaves more second chance opportunities for the opponent. Additionally, this team no longer has Tyson Chandler like they did last season and he was such a valuable defensive presence. Also, other players step up their games when another guy goes out and that’s part of the reason the Hornets still averaged 101.6 points per game during the only lengthy (this was a 5 game) stretch that West missed last season. That also came in the latter half of January and the Hornets offense kept on rolling. We expect that to be the case here but we also expect the Nuggets to look to run them right out of the Pepsi Center. Note that in last year’s playoffs, Denver scored at least 107 points in four of the five games. Also, the Nuggets have revenge here from a loss at New Orleans earlier this season where Denver was without Chauncey Billups. He will make a huge impact on this rematch and his presence takes some of the Hornets defensive attention off of Carmelo Anthony which will allow him to have a much bigger game than he did in their first match-up.
The Nuggets held the Clippers to just 85 points on Thursday and they’re 2-0 to the over this season when holding their prior opponent to 85 points or less. Additionally, the Nuggets are 18-12 to the over the last three seasons when they’re at home and the total is posted between 205 and 209.5 points. Last but certainly not least, the Nuggets are 9-5 to the over the last three seasons when they’re a home favorite of between 9.5 and 12 points. With wins in 8 of their last 10 games, and having scored 105 points or more in five straight games, the Nuggets offense is going to keep rolling here. However, don’t be surprised if the Hornets also prove quite proficient on offense. Without relying on West in the low-post the game will be sped up as the Hornets will look to use Chris Paul’s skills in creating open looks and New Orleans will look for more scoring in their transition game. They will run more with West not on the floor. That’s what it comes down to. Also, before being held to 96 points in yesterday’s win over the Timberwolves, the Hornets had scored at least 100 points in 6 of their last 8 games and we look for them to ‘get out and run’ with the Nuggets all night in this one. Play OVER the total in Denver as a 9* Top Play selection.
ASA
5* NY Rangers -115 over Montreal
This one has set up perfectly for a strong play on the Rangers. New York is on the road so strong line value is being offered on the Rangers. If they were at home they would likely be overpriced. Additionally, they are catching the Canadiens in a back to back spot with travel involved as the Habs were in New Jersey last night. Not only that, Montreal did get a huge upset win of the Devils yesterday which makes this a very tough spot for them. Teams off of a big dog upset win often come up short on emotions, energy, and intensity in their very next game. Unlike the Habs, the Rangers are well-rested here as they were off yesterday. Also, New York is fired up because of a 2-0 shutout loss they suffered at Philadelphia on Thursday. While the Canadiens will be playing their third game in four nights, the Rangers will be playing just their third game in six nights. The Rangers are off a big divisional game against the Flyers but note that they are 47-30 the last three seasons when off of a divisional game. Also, another stat that dates back over the last three seasons is that New York is 36-23 the last three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored just one goal or were shutout. Even though the Canadiens are playing with revenge here they are just 48-62 the last three seasons when playing with revenge against an opponent. Also, while Saturday is widely known as "Hockey Night in Canada" it’s notable that the Canadiens are just 5-9 in Saturday games this season. The Habs had lost three straight before beating the Devils. The Rangers had won two straight before losing to the Flyers. Its bounce back time for New York here while one shouldn’t be surprised if the Canadiens come out flat here after their big win last night!
RAS
James Madison/NC-Wilmington Over 140.5
Pepperdine/Portland Under 138
Loyola Marymount/Gonzaga Under 155.5
Jimmy Moore Guaranteed Selections
7* San Jose -170
This play is a bigger favorite than I usually like to play but this play is simply too strong to pass up. The Sabres are playing their 6th game on a 7 game road trip so they will not be a full power in this one and that is a problem going against the Sharks who are red hot winning 4 in a row and 6 of their last 7. The Sharks are 8-3 in January games and they are 10-3 on Saturday nights this season. They will be intent on keeping the winning roll going and they will be able to do it against the road weary Sabres. Thank you and good luck.
Joyce Sterling
10* Denver- 11.5
Minnesota +7.5
Detroit -2.5