DAVID MALINSKY
4* CONNECTICUT -4 over LOUISVILLE
They are selling Connecticut short here. The Huskies have earned the right to be laying more than the full home court advantage, but the markets were not high on Jim Calhoun’s team to begin this season, and even after putting together a terrific resume (just how good does an outright win at Texas look these days), they are still under-valued. The most recent cycle really tells the tale – this is anything but a one-man gang right now.
Over the last three games Kemba Walker has shot just 17-51 from the field. Yet Connecticut beat Villanova, Tennessee and Marquette in that span, and that tells you much about how the others have grown up. They won the battle of the boards by +16 in those wins, and had 47 assists vs. only 32 TO’s. Those two areas are the key today against what is actually a shallow Louisville team, instead of the usual deep bunch that wears opponents down.
Already playing without Jared Swopshire and Rakeem Buckles, Rick Pitino has had to get a lot of scrapping and hustling from the remaining cast, but now it gets even tougher today without Gorgui Dieng up front. Dieng was fourth on the team in minutes played in Big East action, getting 17 blocked shots, and the loss of his presence inside hurts not only from a depth factor, but takes away an anchor to those presses (from Pitino - We've had obviously a rash of injuries from the start of the season, but this is a big blow to us. He bothers people's vision in the lane, he deters a lot of shots. This is a big blow to us defensively because we're not the same team without him.” It is much more difficult to harass an opponent that will now have no fears of taking the ball right through those presses to the basket, and that is a Walker specialty. Look for Connecticut to not be bothered by the Louisville defense and to win the battle of the boards, and that makes this a true uphill battle for a Cardinal team that has only played one tourney-level team on the road all season, getting whipped by14 at Villanova. And with the Huskies #11 in the nation in FT percentage (76.6), they are an ideal team to have as a favorite in a late-game closeout situation.
Jeff Benton
30 Dime UCONN
10 Dime NORTH CAROLINA
UCONN
I knew as soon as Louisville was forced to go on the road and face some quality teams that Rick Pitino’s squad would prove to be a fraud. Sure enough, the Cardinals started out 13-1 – with 13 of those games played inside the state of Kentucky and the other being a nine-point win at South Florida – but then they took trips to Villanova and Providence and they got exposed, losing 88-74 to the Wildcats as a four-point underdog and 72-67 at Providence last Saturday as a five-point favorite.
In fact, since beating South Florida, Louisville has looked good only once (88-63 home win over St. John’s). Other than that, there were the two losses at ‘Nova and Providence and a pair of one-point home wins over Marquette (Louisville had to close the game on a 29-5 run to rally for that win) and West Virginia (Louisville was down 11 at the half and scored the winning basket with less than 5 seconds to play). It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the Cardinals could easily be in a 1-4 slump right now, and if that was the case, this line would be four points higher.
As for UConn, here’s all you need to know: It is riding a six-game winning streak (including four impressive victories over Texas, Villanova, Tennessee and Marquette); it is 17-2 on the season and 11-0 at home (where it averages 75 ppg but more remarkably holds opponents to just 58.6 ppg on less than 36 percent shooting); it owns one of the best pointspread records in the country (10-3 ATS); and it features the best player in the country not named Jimmer Fredette (Huskies guard Kemba Walker averages 24.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game).
From a matchup perspective, Louisville has nobody that can handle Walker, and the Cardinals will be at a major disadvantage in the front court, as the Huskies are +7.4 in rebounding differential, including +12.5 at home!
UConn is the better free-throw shooting team (76.6%-66.3%, including 77.5%-63.4% over the past five games), and the Huskies are in a double-revenge situation (Louisville swept last year’s season series, including a 78-76 road win as a four-point underdog).
One final stat to sink your teeth into: UConn has covered the number in 10 of its last 12 against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 1-6 ATS in its last seven against winning teams.
This pointspread is a JOKE, guys – UConn rolls BIG in this one!
NORTH CAROLINA
If not for a slip-up at Georgia Tech on Jan. 16 (and that 78-58 loss looks even more bizarre in retrodpect) and a two-point loss to Texas (now ranked 7th in the country), North Carolina would be riding a 12-game winning streak right now. As it is, the Tar Heels have won eight of nine and 11 of 13, most recently gutting out a 74-71 road victory over Miami (Fla.) as a one-point chalk.
That win in South Beach puts UNC at 4-1 in ACC play (only misstep at Georgia Tech). On the other hand, N.C. State is just 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) in its last five games, all in conference. Three of those losses were convincing road setbacks (75-66 at Boston College; 84-71 at Florida State; 60-50 at Clemson), and the other was a 14-point home loss to Duke.
And while UNC is a perfect 9-0 inside the Dean Dome (and netting 81.3 ppg), the Wolfpack are just 1-5 in true road games this season (averaging 63.5 ppg), and the one victory was at Elon University (yawn!). In addition to the three ACC road losses, N.C. State got drilled at Wisconsin (87-48) and lost at Syracuse (65-59) in early December.
Last year, the Wolfpack had a chance to grab the upper hand in this rivalry (UNC was a team in transition in 2009-10 and failed to make the Big Dance last spring), but instead it was the Tar Heels wo rolled to easy wins of 77-63 in Raleigh and 74-61 in Chapel Hill. Going back to 2007, North Carolina is on an eight-game winning streak against the Wolfpack, going 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Easy call here, guys, as the Tar Heels’ athleticism and home-court edge will be too much for a poor road team like N.C. State to deal with.
RAS
Loy Marymount -1
UC Davis -3
New Mexico +2.5
Ben Burns
New Mexico +3½
Clemson -2½
Louisville / Connecticut Over 143
Timberwolves -4½
Hornets / Kings Over 186½
Evan Altemus
UCONN -4
Georgetown / Villanova Over 145.5
Kansas -10.5
New Mexico -3
Kentucky -11
Dr. Bob
Daytime College Opinion
Oklahoma State (-2) over TEXAS TECH
Oklahoma State is an incredible 31-5-2 ATS and 36-2 straight up as a favorite in 3 seasons under coach Travis Ford (30-0 straight up as a favorite of 2 or more), including 8-1 ATS this season. The Cowboys are an even better 28-2-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 11 points (8-0 ATS this season). All 6 of Oklahoma State’s losses this season have been against teams that are at least 8 points better than Texas Tech (all teams in the top 60 in my ratings). Texas Tech is coming off a couple of quality wins, but my ratings still favor the Cowboys by 2 ½ points and I’ll lean with Oklahoma State based on their great record as a favorite under Ford.
Rocketman
3* Mississippi State +6
Florida is 2-9 ATS this year as a favorite. Mississippi State is 12-4 ATS last 3 years when playing with 1 or less days rest. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Gators are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. Bulldogs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southeastern. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Gators are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Gators are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Mississippi St.
Larry Ness
Legend - Cincinnati
ASA
9* UCONN
Dr. Bob
3* Georgetown (+5) over VILLANOVA
Play Strength: 3-Stars at +5 or more, 2-Stars down to +4.
2* BOWLING GREEN (-7) over Eastern Michigan
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -7 or less.
2* Towson (+18) over OLD DOMINION
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +17 or more.
2* CALIFORNIA (-8) over Oregon
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -10 or less.
EZWinners
Bobcats
Davidson
North Texas
KELSO
100 Units San Diego St -21
15 Units Rice -5
10 Units Kentucky -11.5
5 Units Valparaiso +2.5
5 Units Eastern Washington -5
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Portland +6
3 Units NC State +10.5
3 Units Oregon +8.5
Northcoast
Marquee - North -2
Marquee - Under 45
Billy Coleman
4* Creighton