Don Wallace Sports
3* Heat -7.5
3* Bulls -1.5
Craig Davis
100 Dime San Diego St
RAS
Alabama St -4.5
Chris Jordan
200* Lakers +1.5
200* BYU +1
200* Princeton +2
Keith Glantz
50* Vanderbilt
50* Michigan St
50* San Diego St
50* UConn
DAVID MALINSKY
4* MICHIGAN over OHIO STATE
It was an absolute “sin of omission” to have not been in play against Ohio State yesterday; we have written often about the way that the lack of depth has forced Thad Matta to manage games, merely looking to get the ‘W’ and move on when in the role of a big favorite. The Buckeyes have gone 4-8 ATS laying double figures in Big 10 play, but we backed off because the first encounter vs. Northwestern was a little bit too close, and we thought it might have changed the dynamic for the revenge encounter, having State forewarned. If they were it did not show. They got extended to the point at which the depth was fully taxed, with Jon Diebler and Jared Sullinger each playing the full 45 minutes, while William Buford went 43, Aaron Craft 40 and David Lighty 37. For FR Sullinger and Craft take special note – because the Buckeyes were not in any pre-season tourneys, this will be the first time in their college careers they have had to play on back-to-back days, so Friday’s extended minutes indeed matter. This is a team that may not be at their best, and also again brings no real interest in getting a margin, since there will still be a Sunday setting between them and the Big 10 title.
Our key here is that it is not just a play against Ohio State, but also a chance to play on Michigan. A young and talented team has taken remarkably well to John Beilein’s system, and a case can be made that they have been one of the 25 best teams in the nation over the second half of conference play. In going 9-3 over their last 12 games the Wolverine losses were all solid – by nine at Ohio State in a game in which they never lost contact; by two at Illinois, which they revenged yesterday; and by one at home to Wisconsin when the Badgers banked in a triple at the buzzer. They also got road wins at Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa and Minnesota in that span, and along with winning on this floor yesterday brings a high confidence level. They will take the court not just trying to hang in today, but genuinely believing they can win – in their earlier loss in Columbus they led in the second half, and in the rematch at home they were down by only two in the final minute.
Note that each of those earlier meetings were in the early stages of the Michigan ascent – it has been nine games since the defeat in Columbus, with the only two losses by a combined three points, and they are just a bounce or two away from it having been a 9-0 run. With no Wolverine playing more than 37 minutes yesterday, which matched the lowest court time from any of the five key State cogs, there will be plenty of physical energy, and we see this one going into the latter stages before we even know whom the outright winner will be.
Sean Higgs
10* North Carolina
10* Louisville
5* Kansas
4* UTEP
4* UTEP Under
4* Boston U
4* Boston U Under
4* Dayton
4* Michigan State
Anthony Redd
40 Dime LA Lakers
Andy Fanelli
75 Dime Denver
Power Play Wins
Duke -7
Al Demarco
20 Dime Temple
Brett Atkins
50 Dime UConn
Chuck O'Brien
20 Dime Mich St/Penn St Under
Derek Mancini
25 Dime Milwaukee
Joel Tyson
30 Dime Temple
Matt Rivers
200* UConn
Trace Adams
1000♦ Duke
500♦ Temple
Dr Bob
Daytime College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Dayton (-6½) over St. Joseph’s
St. Joseph’s is coming off 3 consecutive upset wins, but the Hawks are due for a letdown today and they apply to a negative 63-140-4 ATS situation that is based on their recent success. My ratings favor Dayton by 6 points and I’d take Dayton in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.
Brandon Lang
40 Dime Louisville -2.5
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Michigan
Michigan continued its impressive late-season surge yesterday, battling back from a 14-point second-half deficit to dump Illinois 60-55 as a three-point underdog (holding the Illini to just one field goal over the last 5+ minutes). Not only have the Wolverines won three in a row, seven of nine and eight of 11, but very quietly they’ve been the most profitable team in the country over the past six weeks, cashing in 11 of their last 12 games. That includes eight consecutive spread-covers from the underdog role!
Speaking of cashing tickets, that’s all Michigan has done the last two years when facing hated Ohio State, going 5-for-5 vs. the pointspread against the Buckeyes. That includes two spread-covers this year and one in the opening round of last year’s Big Ten Tournament (in that latter contest, Michigan had Ohio State beaten 68-66 until Buckeyes star Evan Turner launched a shot from just past half court and drained it to steal a 69-68 victory).
Ohio State – which needed overtime to get past Northwestern yesterday 67-61, falling way short as a 12-point underdog – has been burning bettors the postseacson the last couple years, going 2-6 ATS in both the conference and Big Dance tournaments. Additionally, the Buckeyes have failed to bring home the money in five of their last seven at neutral sites and seven of 10 when coming off an ATS loss. Meanwhile, Michigan’s 11-1 ATS run includes nine straight covers versus teams with a winning record.
Bottom line: Teams like Michigan and Northwestern have figured out how to frustrate Ohio State with a slow, methodical offense and a matchup zone defense (in four games against those teams this year, the Buckeyes have averaged just 63.8 ppg, and that includes yesterday’s overtime game over Northwestern when Ohio State had just 52 points after regulation). Look for the same thing to happen in this one as the Wolverines keep this one tight throughout and cash for the sixth straight time against their bitter rivals.
Dr Bob
2* Kent St
2* North Carolina
2* Penn St