Wayne Root
Millionaire - Vanderbilt
Billionaire - Richmond
No Limit - Penn St
Pinnacle - UConn
Perfect Play - Washington
Insider Info - Texas
WUNDERDOG
5 Units St. Joesph's +7
Coach Phil Martelli has had to play with less talent the last couple of years, but he seems to devise workable game plans when needed the most. The Hawks were 20-game losers during the regular season, and have pulled off two upsets to get here, and once again are a sizeable dog. Underachieving Dayton is likely on the sidelines this season, win or lose, when it comes to the big dance. The Hawks have a good sign here as they are 7-2 ATS after scoring 90+ in their last nine, and playing with confidence and purpose. I like St. Joe's in this one.
3 UnitsAlabama +6.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide posted a big win yesterday in their quest for an NCAA bid, and would do themselves great justice with a win over Kentucky today, or at least a close game. The Wildcats have played a lot of close games this season in SEC play, putting away only the poorer teams. This is a young Wildcats team that could easily lose its way in a big game. They have failed to cover all of their last five vs. a team with a winning percentage over .600. The Tide have been top-notch in the SEC, going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 SEC tilts and continue to be under the radar. The play here is on Alabama.
3 Units Clemson +5.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels made the great escape yesterday as they trailed the entire game, with the only time they had a lead was the final score. Clemson scored a huge win by blowing out Boston College yesterday, but is it enough? They sure could make things easier for the selection committee today with a big win, or at the very least a highly competitive loss vs. a awesome team. I expect the Tigers to bring their "A" game for this one. The played the Heels to within 10 at Chapel Hill and two at home, so I very much expect them to be in this one to the end. Tigers have swept their last six neutral-court games ATS, and Clemson is my choice in this one. Play on Clemson in this one.
3 Units Richmond / Temple Under 130
Temple has played without a pair of starters. Against LaSalle it just didn't matter as the Explorers were simply overmatched, and the offense did what it wanted to do. That will be different today vs. a sticky Richmond Spiders team that will offer a lot more resistance, and alter the pace of the game. These teams played to a game in the 120s when Temple had a full compliment of players, so I expect this one to be hard pressed to reach that, or do any better. The Spiders have recorded six straight UNDERs following a win. The Owls at 9-2 to the UNDER in their last 11 on a neutral court. The UNDER gets the call.
3 Units Virginia Tech +7
Duke may have won last night against Maryland, but it wasn't easy. Things took a scary turn when Nolan Smith went down with an ankle sprain. He may be hobbling or out for this one, but not at full strength. With his quickness one of his biggest edges, that could be missing here. The Hokies at 21-10, are still hanging around the bubble, but yesterday's win could have them on the plus side of the bubble coming into this one. Tech beat Duke this season, so the intimidation factor will be far from making an appearance. The Hokies are riding a 7-1-1 ATS mark when posted as a dog from 7-12.5, while Duke is just 3-7 ATS in the same range as chalk. Virginia Tech gets the nod.
3 Units Texas +4.5
The Texas Longhorns have more to gain here as I think Kansas has a No. 1 seed locked up win or lose. The Horns own a double-digit win at Kansas, and when their "A" game takes the court, they are a tough out. They certainly will be equal to the talent of the Jayhawks, but have the experience edge here. This one looks to go down to the wire, where the points will be huge. The Horns have been cover machines at 20-8 ATS, while they Jayhawks have failed to deliver the cash in five straight as a favorite. I am on Texas in this one.
4 Units BYU +2.5
The BYU Cougars will be fighting the San Diego State Aztecs in a heavyweight Mountain West contest. It is hard to buck the Cougars with the best player on the court especially at crunch time in a game that is expected to be close and hard fought. Jimmer Fredette has had an amazing year, and even with opponents keying in to stop him, he has proven unstoppable. The Cougars own a pair of double-digit wins vs. the Aztecs, and this one may play tighter, but I'll ride my money down the stretch with points and Jimmer on my side. BYU gets the call.
Grambling State / Alabama State Under 121.5
The Grambling State Tigers survived overtime to get one more chance to punch a ticket to the big dance. Grambling State is a pretty bad team with just 12 wins on the season, and in an unlikely spot here. Alabama State has a losing record as well, and with so much unexpected for both to be here, I expect these teams to play with a lot of nervous energy and close to the vest. Alabama State has kept opponents in the 60s or less through 11 of their last 12 games, and I expect a slow tempo here and will play this one UNDER the total.
3 Units Boise State +6.5
Boise State looks to steal a bid here with their game against Utah State who has had a banner year at 29-3, and would appear to safe even with a loss. The Broncos have caught fire, and are peaking at just the right time. They have rattled off eight straight for the win column and are playing very confident now. This isn't the same team that took the floor vs. Utah State and were soundly thrashed by 28, and will have something to prove here. The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a dog, and 5-0 ATS in their last five overall, play this one close. I am on Boise State.
ATS Lock Club
10 Units Kansas
5 Units Dayton
5 Units Mich. St.
4 Units San Diego St.
JB Sports
3* Milwaukee
RAS
Morgan St / Hampton Over 123.5
Marc Lawrence
4 Units Kansas
When top-seeded Kansas takes on Texas in the title game of the Big 12 Championship Saturday evening the Jayhawks will take the court in a terrific winning situation. It was the Longhorns who snapped KU's 18-0 perfect start this season with an 11-point upset loss in Lawrence, the only home defeat for Kansas this season. That sets the table for tonight's play as we note the Jayhawks are 3-0 SU and ATS in this series when seeking revenge, with every win double-digits by an average win margin of 15.7 PPG. In addition, Kansas is 3-0 ATS in conference tournament play when seeking revenge against an opponent off back-to-back wins, with every win double-digits by an average win margin of 15.3. PPG. The clincher, though, comes from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play On any No. 1 seed in a conference tournament championship game off back-to-back tournament wins and no covers if the last win was by five or more points. That's because these No.1 seeds are 7-0 SU and ATS in this role since 1990, with every win double-digits by an average win margin of 20 PPG Look for Kansas to cut down the cords and earn a No.1 seed in the NCAA tournament here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Kansas.
3 Units Cal Santa Barbara
When the Gauchos take on the 49ers in the title game of the Big West Conference tournament tonight UCSB will take the floor with double-revenge on its mind knowing they are 3-0 ATS in this series when Long Beach is off a SU and ATS win. In addition, five returning starter teams in conference tourney games off a double-digit win facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win are 17-3 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite or two or less points. We recommend a 3-unit play on Cal Santa Barbara.
OC Dooley
2 Units Clemson +5.5
Even though North Carolina has the advantage of playing this tournament within state boundaries and has a #1 overall seeding, there is not a radical difference between the two teams challenging each other this afternoon as both rallied with a strong “second half” after struggling during the early months of a brand new campaign. This is another one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a loud statement casting North Carolina as “only” a five-point favorite even though their collective record against Clemson is a mind boggling 83-4 within state borders. This season Clemson continued an NCAA-record losing streak at North Carolina in a game where they were actually competitive until the last 4’-minutes of what turned out to be a 10 point setback. In the series rematch played on Clemson’s home floor, a thriller was decided by a TWO point margin where the Tar Heels barely came away with the straight-up verdict. Speaking of barely slipping by North Carolina yesterday trailed Miami from wire-to-wire before picking up a last second game winning basket. Yesterday the Clemson defense was outstanding in a 70-47 romp of Boston College which was surprising when you consider that both sides were atop the NCAA “bubble”. For Clemson to breakthrough with such an easy margin of victory speaks volumes since the Tigers had exited the ACC postseason tournament after “one game” in 4 of the past 5 seasons, which tells me this program is on the uptick. While Oliver Purnell was basically “dumped” to the struggling Depaul program, Clemson has responded in a positive manner for new head coach Brad Brownell who has instilled CONFIDENCE that this squad can be competitive against any opponent in the entire league. My database research indicates that in the past three years North Carolina is a horrible 1-8 ATS after reeling off “eight” consecutive straight-up victories which means they actually have problems handling prosperity
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
8* North Carolina -5.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on UNC
The Tigers are 13-13-1 ATS this year; yesterday the Tigers crushed Boston College behind a strong defensive performance 70-47 as 4 1/2 point favorites.
On the other side of the court: The Tar Heels are 15-13 ATS this year; yesterday they held on for a 61-59 win over Miami, unable to cover as 9 1/2-point favorites; UNC did not look like the sixth ranked team yesterday, playing very sloppily; however I expect them to run rough shod over the Tigers opportunistic defense today and get them on their heels from the opening tip.
Bottom line: These teams last met on February 12th, and UNC held on for a 64-62 win as a 2-point favorite.
UNC has won 84 of 88 meetings with the Tigers; I believe the 19 point rally in the second half is a sign of things to come; expect the Tar Heels to come out fired up from the opening tip; Harrison Barnes had 18 points to lead the way and Kendall Marshall contributed 10 assists. The Tar Heels outscored the Hurricanes 27-6 over the final 9:52; "This will definitely help us," Marshall said. "We realize that we have more goals this season that we want to accomplish."
The fourth-seeded Tigers are 0-18 against the top seed in the history of the tournament.
This is a difficult time of year for a handicapper in posting his analysis, as lines for these early games come out literally hours before tip off; but suffice to say, when taking into account the factors I have listed above, we are getting fantastic line value on the Tar Heels; 8* play on UNC
Executive
600 North Carolina
Ben Burns
10* Kansas
Fantasy Sports Gametime
NEW RATING SYSTEM
Platinum= TOP PLAY OF THE DAY
Gold= Lower Rated Premium Play
Silver= Lowest Rated Premium Play
Play Alabama (+6.5) over Kentucky (NCAA PLATINUM PLAY)
Alabama has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 games and they have also covered the spread in 9 consecutive games coming off an OVER the total. Alabama has covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games vs. conference opponents and they are only allowing 58 points a game on defense this season.
Play Virginia Tech (+7.5) over Duke (NCAA PLATINUM PLAY)
Virginia Tech has won 5 of the last 6 neutral court games and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games when playing their 2nd game in two days. Virginia Tech has covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 games coming off two or more games where both teams scored less than 65 points and they are only allowing an average of 62 points a game on defense this season.
Play Penn State (+2.5) over Michigan State (NCAA PLATINUM PLAY)
Penn State has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games and they have also covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent by 10 points or more. Penn State has covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games vs. Michigan State and they are only allowing 57 points a game on defense over the last 5 games.
Play Texas (+4) over Kansas (NCAA PLATINUM PLAY)
Texas has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games coming off an OVER the total and they have also covered the spread in 4 consecutive neutral court games. Texas has won 25 of the last 27 games coming off two or more straight wins by 10 points or more and they have also won 5 consecutive games coming off three or more covers as a favorite.
Play Louisville (-1.5) over Connecticut (NCAA PLATINUM PLAY)
Louisville has covered the spread in 7 consecutive games and they have also covered the spread in 4 consecutive games when playing their 2nd game in two days. Louisville has won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games vs. Connecticut and they are averaging over 76 points a game on offense over the last five games.
The Sports Capper
100* Play Texas (+4) over Kansas
Kansas has lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread and they are also 14-29 ATS coming off five or more consecutive wins.
100* Play Washington (-2) over Arizona
Arizona has lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread and they are 0-8 ATS coming off a game with two or less steals.
100* Play San Diego State (-2) over BYU
San Diego State has won 11 of the last 12 games and they are also 8-0 SU coming off a win by six points or less. San Diego State is 7-1 SU in conference tournament games the last three seasons and they are only allowing an average of 59 points a game on defense this season.
100* Play Louisville (-1.5) over Connecticut
Louisville is 5-1 SU & ATS in conference tournament games the last three seasons and they are also 9-1 SU coming off five or more games with 14 or less turnovers.
100* Play Utah State (-6) over Boise State
Utah State has won 24 of the last 25 games and they are only allowing an average of 57 points a game on defense this season. Utah State won the last meeting 77-49.
Larry Ness
Legend - Kansas
Jimmy Boyd
3* Milwaukee Bucks -2
5* San Diego St -2
4* Washington -2
Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks
Kobe Bryant stuck around to practice for an hour in American Airlines Arena after the Lakers loss to the Miami on Thursday and many believe that it was just for show. It seems Kobe got tired and didn't practice on Friday and now Los Angeles faces the rested Dallas Mavericks who straightened out their own trouble with a rout of the 'red hot' New York Knicks later that same night. These two met in Dallas in January and the Mavericks were a 3-point dog and won outright 109-100. This time around the odds makers have given Dallas some respect and opened them the favorite.