RAS
Murray State +5
Washington -1.5
Baylor -4.5
Ohio +8.5
Villanova -4.5
TIM TRUSHEL
20* Baylor
Lenny Del Genio
3* Baylor -4.5
2* Kentucky -9.5
Lenny Stevens
20* Kentucky
10* Villanova
Rocketman
3* Boston +4
3* UAB -5
Billy Coleman
5* Butler -5
4* Tex Tech -8.5
3* St. Marys +4.5
3* Wash -1.5
3* Boston +4
RAS
Nova Under 154.5
Butler Over 128.5
DAVID MALINSKY
4* N. C. STATE +5.5 over U.A.B.
We got a terrific ride out of Sidney Lowe and his Wolfpack in the A.C.C. tournament last week, cashing a 4* outright underdog win over Clemson in the opening round, and then a 6* in another outright dog win over Florida State the following night. Our sin of omission was in not staying in the game when they traveled to South Florida for the opening round of this tournament, but we had some serious questions about fatigue and focus – would the toll of facing three straight NCAA-bound conference opponents in as many days have them off their game? And in truth it did, a bit, but they were still able to gut out a 58-57 road win. Now they have had three days off to get physically fresh again, and with the confidence of having won twice on the road, and also those neutral court wins, over their past eight outings, we can confidently call for them to not only stay within this number, but to win the game outright.
The late-season State success has been a case of the pieces fitting on both ends of the court. The offense has been effective in half-court sets, with Tracy Smith developing into a big-time post presence, and with Javier Gonzalez and Scott Wood both knocking down 37.3 percent of their triples they have created excellent spacing for inside-out play. That causes significant problems for a U.A.B. team that does not have an interior presence to check Smith unless Kenneth Cooper gets more time off the bench, but the latter’s offensive limitations are part of why he sees only 18.5 minutes per game.
Offensive limitations run throughout the Blazer roster. They shot just 42.4 percent this season against a weak schedule, including 31.1 from 3-point range, and when they fell off of the NCAA fence down the stretch it was the inability to flow on that end of the court (only 369 assists in 32 games) that caused the crash. That problem comes front and center here against a Wolfpack defense that has held five straight opponents to 57 points or less. And the odd late afternoon starting time in front of what will be a small crowd (the publish count of 3,081 fans for Tuesday’s round one win was generous) does not bring much court advantage or spark at all here. This will be a methodical grinder of a half-court game that makes the points being offered even more valuable, with the favorite lacking the talent advantages or matchups to find any kind of breathing room.
Cal Sports
4* Tenn Under
4* Butler
4* UAB
James Patrick Sports
5* Philadelphia
Steven Budin
25 Dime - Washington
INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Wake Forest/Kentucky OVER 142
3* North Carolina +7½
3* Murray St. +4½
3* North Carolina St. +5½
NSA
20* Kansas -11.5
20* Mississippi State -7.5
10* Washington -1.5
10* Kentucky -9
10* Texas Tech -8.5
10* Dallas Mavericks -4
Teddy June
20* Washington
10* N. Iowa
10* Wake Forest
Craig Davis
25 Dime – OHIO
25 Dime – BAYLOR
25 Dime – WASHINGTON
OHIO - I'm still scratching my head about this line. Tennessee has no business giving 9 points to anyone... even Ohio. Did Vegas not watch what the Bobcats just did to a very good Georgetown team Thursday, or do they not believe this team is capable of doing it again? Well, I guess I don't care what Vegas thinks, I like Ohio and I think they have a very good shot of pulling the upset here. I'm sorry, but Tennessee just doesn't excite me at all. They aren't spectacular defensively, they don't run a lot of sets that would concern me as a coach (kind of a street-ball type offense), and although they do have some athletes, I'm not sure they're even as athletic, top to bottom, as Ohio. All I've heard is how the Bobcats were 9th in the MAC during the regular season and how lucky they were to even be invited to the tourney (automatic bid for winning the conference tournament). Forget that crap... I don't care how they did back in January... I want to know what you've done for me lately, and what they've done is knock off Georgetown and Akron (the MAC regular season champ) in their last two and have been winners of eight of their last ten. Meanwhile, Tennessee is simply too erratic for me, nearly dropping a game to San Diego State in the opening round of the tournament and, before that, getting kicked in the teeth by Kentucky. I just don't trust them. They shoot 67% from the line as a team and they don't defend the 3 well. Ohio G Armon Bassett said it best after their win over the Hoyas... "we know we're probably not going to be the best team in any game in this tournament, we're just trying to be the best team that night." Well said. I think they'll be the better team today and even if they don't win outright, they'll cover the 9 points or so.
BAYLOR - It was a fun ride while it lasted for the Monarchs, but all good things must come to an end. After their improbable win over Notre Dame in which the Irish couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in the second half, I just don't see any way they can keep a very athletic Baylor team down. The only chance ODU has to win this game is if they play the best defense of their lives and hope to score more than 60 themselves. All season Old Dominion has been about defense... but that's not necessarily such a tough thing playing in the Colonial Athletic Association, especially considering Baylor has been playing teams from the Big 12 all season and still scoring points. The Bears played, quite possibly, their worst game in quite some time vs. Sam Houston in the first round of the tourney and still nearly covered the number. But what really impressed me about the Bears Thursday was the fact they really played good defense, holding Sam Houston nearly 30 points below their season average. If Baylor can play that type of defense today and still get the same contribution on the offensive end from Carter and Dunn, this game could be decided by double digits. Old Dominion will keep this close for a while because they can shoot the 3 and can play defense, but they aren't all that deep and will eventually run out of steam. I like the Bears minus the small number.
WASHINGTON - As I mentioned in my analysis of New Mexico State yesterday, I closely followed these teams out west very closely as I feel this is where a tremendous amount of value is in the betting world. Most folks on the east coast and central time zones don't stay up long enough to watch these West Coast games... but I do. And two teams that helped me make a lot of money this season were Washington and New Mexico. I backed the Lobos 6 times this year, winning four times and losing only twice. I backed the Huskies two times and played against them twice... 3-1. Needless to say, I feel like I know these two teams, and I'm telling you right now New Mexico is overmatched if Washington takes care of business. They score more points, they shoot better from the field and free throw line, and they play slightly better defense. Washington enters today's game off a very impressive come-from-behind win over Marquette while New Mexico struggled down the stretch to beat a very mundane Montana team (and they actually trailed at halftime). New Mexico F Darington Hobson scored 11 points and grabbed 11 boards in Thursday's win over the Grizzlies, but he's listed as questionable. Folks, I think Washington is just getting going. They were my pre-season pick to win the Pac 10 and although they didn't win the regular season title, they did win the tourney against a very good Cal team. Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall while New Mexico has failed to cover 9 of their last 11 neutral site games. Too much firepower for the Huskies as I see them marching on to the Sweet 16 as an 11 seed.