STEVE BUDIN
25 DIME - KENTUCKY
SPORTS UNLIMITED
15* Kansas St. -4
5* West Virginia
TEDDY COVERS
Kentucky
Lakers
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: West Virginia-Kentucky UNDER the total
I know there will be some incredible athletes on the floor tonight in Syracuse, and you usually equate gifted athletes with scoring. But in reality, athleticism shows up most on the defensive end of the court, and that’s exactly what I expect to happen tonight.
Both Kentucky and West Virginia have been playing tremendous defense through three games of the Tournament, with the Mountaineers giving up 55 ppg on 33.7 percent shooting (60-for-178) and the Wildcats yielding 58.7 ppg on 34.1 percent shooting (60-for-176). Also, both these teams are undefeated on neutral courts this season (a combined 19-0) and the main reason has been defense. West Virginia has surrendered 54.8 ppg on 35.3 percent shooting (26.7 percent from three-point range) in its 10 neutral-site victories, compared with the Wildcats’ 59.7 ppg, 35.3 percent shooting and 25.3 percent from three-point range in nine wins.
True, Kentucky has been shooting the ball at a much better rate (52.6 percent) than the Mountaineers (40.5 percent) in the Tournament, but it’s also true that the Wildcats also haven’t faced a defense as ferocious as the one they’ll see today. West Virginia has now held seven straight opponents in the 50s, winning all seven games. Six of those wins came against quality foes, too (Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Missouri and Washington).
As for West Virginia’s offense vs. Kentucky’s defense, well, all the energy the Mountaineers are expending on the defensive end of the court has come at the expense of their offense, as they’ve scored 69 points or fewer in six of their last seven games, averaging just 64.1 ppg during this stretch. Not surprisingly, all seven of those contests stayed under the total, the last six of which have been played at neutral sites.
Meanwhile, even though Kentucky easily went over the total in its first two Tournament games (because East Tennessee State and Wake Forest played NO defense), the Wildcats were mostly an “under” team down the stretch (six of its final eight regular-season contests stayed low).
Finally, both these teams are guided by defensive-minded coaches. Bob Huggins has always preached aggressive pressure defense, and John Calipari – going back to his time at Memphis – has turned up the heat defensively whenever he’s had the athletes to do so. (Clearly he has those athletes this year).
The Carrier Dome in Syracuse proved difficult for shooters in Thursday’s Sweet 16 contests – Washington, West Virginia, Kentucky and Cornell shot a combined 86-for-219 (39.3 percent) – and I don’t expect one extra day of practice to make much of a difference in those numbers … particularly with the way these teams play defense.
On top of all that, the under was 5-2-1 through the Sweet 16 round, with only two games -- including the double-overtime contest between Xavier and Kansas State -- featuring more than 127 combined points.
Take this one UNDER the total and look for a final score in the low 60s.
Ben Burns
10* Butler
10* Chicago Bulls
9* Por/NO Over
ANTHONY REDD
15* Butler
15* Kentucky
15* Wizards
Trey Scott
*200 West Virginia +4
*200 Butler +4
*200 Butler/Kansas State under 135
Street Rosenthal
*200 Golden State Warriors Under 234.5
*200 Portland Trailblazers -3.5
*200 Chicago Bulls -9
*200 Utah Jazz -9.5
BRANDON LANG
10* Kentucky
CHRIS JORDAN
200* Kentucky
STEPHEN NOVER
25* Kentucky