Jeff Benton
30 Dime Arizona
15 Dime West Virginia
Arizona
Arizona has failed to cover in four straight games, but that’s actually one of the reasons I like the Wildcats today: They’re overdue to cash, and because of the 0-4 ATS slump, there’s value built into the line (had this game been played a week ago, Arizona would be laying 15+).
Besides, even though it failed to get the money in Thursday’s game against Oregon State, Arizona still dominated the Beavers 70-59 (as a 14-point chalk). The Wildcats are now 16-0 on their home court, and with the exception of a two-point win over Cal in early January and a one-point win over Washington two Saturdays ago, Arizona has dominated in its other six Pac-10 home games, beating Oregon State by 11, Washington State by 9, USC by 9, UCLA by 9, Arizona State by 11 and Stanford by 10.
Of course, the Wildcats are going to have to post their biggest home win of the Pac-10 campaign to cover the number against Oregon. Here’s why I think they can do it: Because they’ve trashed the Ducks five straight times, posting home wins of 67-52 and 70-57, and road wins of 87-77, 74-60 and 76-57 (back on Dec. 30). And the Wildcats covered in all five contests.
Another reason to go against Oregon: The Ducks are coming off three straight blowout losses to Cal (81-71 at home) Stanford (88-71 at home) and Arizona State (73-53 on Thursday), never threatening to cover the spread in any of those contests. Those three convincing results aren’t at all surprising when you realize that Oregon’s games tend not to be very competitive. Even if you include wins, 14 of the Ducks’ 17 conference contests have been decided by eight points or more, and the last eight Oregon games had an average victory margin of 13.4 ppg.
Well, given the Ducks’ recent struggles overall, their recent history against Arizona, and the Wildcats’ unbeaten home record, it’s not tough to predict the outright winner here. And seeing that Arizona needs a victory to clinch the regular-season Pac-10 crown (on Senior Day), I see no reason why the Wildcats won’t come out and crush an inferior opponent that averages less than 62 points per game and shoots under 40 percent on the road (Arizona averages 79.2 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting at home).
West Virginia
Payback game for West Virginia, which went to Louisville back on Jan. 26 and blew a 37-26 halftime lead, managing just 17 second-half points and losing 55-54 as a seven-point underdog. Looking back on it, the loss essentially cost the Mountaineers a shot a coveted top-four spot in the Big East standings and paved the way for Louisville to grab it (which is huge because the top four teams in the Big East receive two byes in the conference tournament).
Since losing to Louisville, the Mountaineers are a mediocre 6-4, but three of the losses were on the road (Villanova, Syracuse and Pitt) and one was at home (71-66 to Pitt). That latter defeat to the Top 5 Panthers is West Virginia’s only conference home loss – the Mountaineers are 13-2 for the season in Morgantown – and since falling to Pitt, West Virginia has scored three straight convincing home wins over DePaul (82-71), Notre Dame (72-58) and UConn (65-56). West Virginia also owns a four-point home win over Purdue in mid January.
Louisville is riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak, but only one of those was on the road and that was at Rutgers. Their three previous road games to that: loss at Cincinnati, loss at Notre Dame, loss at Georgetown. And if not for a double-overtime win at UConn on Jan. 29, Louisville would have lost six straight road games prior to Rutgers.
One important situation to pay attention to here: I brought up earlier that Louisville has secured its double-bye for next week’s Big East tournament, as the Cardinals sit in third place at 12-5. Well, West Virginia is in a three-way tie for sixth place with Georgetown and Cincinnati (who play each other today), and the Mountaineers beat both the Hoyas and Bearcats. Therefore with a victory today, the Mountaineers would do no worse than a #6 seed for the conference tourney. At the same time, if West Virginia loses this game, it could slide all the way down to 11th place.
In other words, this game is WAY more important to West Virginia than it is to Louisville. Throw in the fact that the home team is 6-1 in this rivalry since Louisville joined the Big East in 2005-06, and I’ll play the more motivated Mountaineers – who have held seven of their last 12 opponents under 60 points – at a very reasonable price.
Wunderdog
3 Units W. Virginia -165
West Virginia is off of two wins, the latest a big one at home vs Uconn. They have lost just twice here all season and historically have been a tough tsakedown on this court. Louisville has won a lot of close games, but their road resume has not been too flattering at just 4-5 on the season as they have lived off a lot of home cooking. The Cardinals now sit at 7-16-1 ATS off an ATS win in their last 24 while the Mountaineers have collected the money in their last four as a favorite from 6.5 or less. Louisville usually hangs tough, but have a losing road mark. WV will be tough here and I'll go with West Virginia on the moneyline.
2 Units Indiana +10 (
The Indiana Hoosiers have been down the past couple of years and this season they have yet to break through on the road at 0-10. Overall they have now lost seven straight games. They did a good job controlling tempo vs Illinois in the first meeting this season in Indiana in a game they won 52-49. I like their chances here as a huge dog, in what is expected to be a similar type of low scoring game. Illinois carries just a 4-10 ATS record at home vs teams with a losing record, playing down to the level of competition. I'll go with Indiana in this one.
2 Units Texas Tech +10
Texas Tech broke a 1-6 mark with a monster win at home vs Oklahoma, and should have some confidence restored to face A&M on the road, who narrowly beat them at home in a 3 point loss. Tech not finding the win column much but on the road they have been within 10 of everyone but Texas in their last six. A&M has been streaky and saw the losing streak reach three earlier in Big-12 play, and here they are coming into this one off a pair of losses. Red Raiders a picture perfect 5-0 ATS facing a home teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 in their last five, have shown enough to get it done vs a big number. I'l ride with Texas Tech here.
4 Units E. Michigan -10
The Toledo Rockets have had a season to forget, as they have a 4-26 mark and have lost all 14 games on the road on the season. The current losing streak has reached 12 games, and there are plenty of signs it has taken its toll on this team. The Rockets were fighting, and getting a high percentage of covers, but down the stretch they have covered just one of their last five games, and they may be out of fight. Eastern Michigan has had a bad season, but at the same time six of their eight wins have come at home. They have also had control of this series having gone 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. I'll go with eastern Michigan here.
3 Units Oregon +13
The Arizona Wildcats really had things rolling, but the offense has cooled down, and they have now dropped two of their last three games. This is a team that went from averaging over 82ppg in a seven game stretch to one that has not topped the 70 mark in their last and have averaged under 60 points. They have also dropped four straight against the number. The offensive struggles put a solid double-digit chalk here well within the danger zone. The Ducks looking to get to .500 should bring some fight, and they have been grabbing the money as a dog where they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. I will go with Oregon here.
3 units UConn -150
These teams have both lived above expectations on the season, and Notre Dame will be taking a pair of byes when the Big East tournament begins next week. Uconn will be trying to jockey themselves into a single bye. The Huskies seem to save their best vs the best, and have come up big all seasdon when least expected, asnd with a lot on the line here I expect Kemba and Co. to bring the "A" game for this one. Irish just 1-6 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record last seven. I look for Uconn, who seemsd to be coming down the wire in a lot of games, to prevail on the moneyline.
3 Units Loyola, Maryland / St. Peter's Over 126
The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds have managed to reach the 70 point mark in less than half their games this season, but the offense has taken a turn upward of laste as this team beginsd to come together. Loyola has now reached the 70 point mark in five of their last eight. St. Peter's who went 14 games without allowing an opponent to top the 70 mark has now allowed more than 70 in each of their last two. Loyola has been an over team at a neutral site in six of their last seven, and with the offense clicking and a low total, look for this one to go OVER the total.
4 Units Columbia -200
This game presents a contrast in styles, as the Brown Bears are a scoring team by Ivy standards, while Columbia is more of a halfcourt team. Unfortunately for the Bears, all of their scoring comes at home. Brown handed Columbia a 12 point beat down late last season and I like Columbia with the revenge motivation here. The Bears have won just three games on the road this season. While they are averaging close to 75 per game at home, they are getting just 64.2 per game on the road. In contrast, Columbia is 9-3 on their home court. Take the motivated home team to win outright here.
Dwayne Bryant
2* Missouri +4
Scott Spreitzer
3* Miss State -6
Billy Coleman
3* St Peters -2.5
Red Dog Sports
15* GOM North Carolina -1
Dr Bob
3* UMass
3* Notre Dame
3* SMU
3* Weber St
2* George Mason
2* Utah
2* Mississippi
Daytime College Opinions
MISSOURI (+4) over Kansas
Missouri is 16-0 straight up on their home floor this season and the Tigers have performed much better at home under coach Mike Anderson (34-23-1 ATS) than they have on the road (16-31 ATS), including a 25-8-1 ATS home mark against teams with a win percentage of .650 or higher. Missouri applies to a very good 88-28-6 ATS last home game situation and the line is fair given the Tigers’ additional home court advantage. Kansas, however, tends to perform well against teams that play full court pressure defense (since the Jayhawks are so good with the ball) and they’ve covered 6 straight against Missouri. The situation is good for Missouri, but I’ll just lean with the Tigers at +3 or more.
BALL STATE (-10½) over Northern Illinois
Ball State is 15-1-1 ATS in their last 17 lined games against teams with a win percentage of .400 or worse, including 11-0-1 ATS this season, and the Cardinals have played nearly 4 points better, relatively, against bad teams than they have overall this season. I’ll lean with Ball State minus the points based on their domination of bad teams.
Wayne Root
No Limit - Missouri
Tim Trushel
20* Clippers Under
Erin Rynning
Playmaker - Clippers Under
Playmaker - North Carolina
Missouri
PPP
6% Richmond
5% Missouri
5% UConn
5% SMU
5% North Carolina
RAS
Georgetown Under 126
Ball St Under 138
RAS
St. Joseph's Under 129
Telly
1 of 6 free plays today
Wyoming +20
Oskeim Sports
5* West Virginia ML
5* Vanderbilt ML
ASA
Oklahoma
Rockets
Michigan
Texas Tech