Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Saturday, March 6,2010

Insider Sports Report

5* Maryland
4* Syracuse
3* Kansas

BRANDON LANG

30 DIME - ARIZONA WILDCATS

Revenge is Arizona's today on senior day as the Wildcats get payback for a 56-50 loss at Southern Cal on New Year's Eve. This game has meaning for the 'Cats in terms of seeding for the upcoming Pac-10 tournament plus a potential NIT bid. But for the Trojans, who are not eligible for post-season play, this is the end of the line. And they're carrying a four-game losing streak into Tucson following Thursday's 59-54 loss at Arizona State, which was preceded by losses at home to Oregon State (49-44) and Oregon (54-44) plus a 51-47 loss at Washington State. Their offensive has averaged just a shade over 47 points during the skid. On the other hand, Arizona snared a road win at Stanford last Saturday on a last-second shot and then rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat UCLA at home on Thursday 78-73.

FREE PICK - BAYLOR

BOBBY VALENTINO

Mountain West Game of the Year

30 DIME AIR FORCE FALCONS

Primetime Sports Advisors

25 Units Syracuse Under 145.5
25 Units Baylor -2.5
25 Units Mississippi -1.5

STEVE BUDIN

25 DIME - BAYLOR -2.5

Sportsbetsnow

3 Units USF -1

3 Units Marquette -7.5

3 Units Spurs/Grizzlies Under 198.5

ATS Lock Club

7 Units GA Tech -4.5
7 Units Bradley +8.5
6 Units Nova -3
5 Units Townson +16
5 Units Rutgers +14
4 Units N Mexico St +13.5

WAYNE ROOT

VEGAS LEGEND - LOUISVILLE
MILLIONAIRE - MISSISSIPPI STATE
BILLIONAIRE - DAYTON
NO LIMIT - MISSOURI GOY
PERFECT PLAY - SOUTH FLORIDA

Craig Davis

40 Dime – UTEP

20 Dime – VILLANOVA

UTEP - Gotta side with the hometown Miners in this one and I have absolutely no faith in the Blazers right now, especially after watching them struggle vs. Memphis the other night. Yes, I backed UAB that night and thought I was on the right side for several reasons... I was wrong. But one thing I learned about UAB... if they aren't playing "lights out" defense, they're going to struggle, especially on the road.

UAB isn't necessarily built to score a ton of points like in past seasons, and playing a team like UAB that can score in bunches could spell trouble if they get hot. The Blazers have scored 53 and 59 points in their last two road outings vs. Central Florida and Southern Miss and although I have seen them score a bunch more than that on a few occasions, the normal road output is around 67 PPG. I'll tell you right now... if the Blazers plan on scoring 67 points tonight, they better make sure they play their best defensive game of the year because it's going to take a lot more than 67 points to cover this six-point line.

Many critics to this selection will point to the fact UTEP is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, but what you might forget is the fact that the Miners have been asked to cover double digits in six of those nine, and three of those double digit lines were over 20. They're winning a lot of games right now, so it's unfair to criticize their ATS home record given those numbers... that would be tough for anyone to do. And let's keep in mind, UTEP has won 13 straight games and they seem to get better each time they take the floor. They went to Southern Miss and won, they went to Marshall and won, they went to Tulsa and won... they even went to UAB and won (by 9 in overtime). This team is as hot as any team in the country and with this being senior night in front of a sellout crowd, I can't imagine anything but their best effort.

Again, I'm just not all that impressed with UAB, especially away from home, and the way they finished their last game against Memphis was really telling. On average, UTEP outscores their opponents by more than 12 PPG, but I expect the team and the crowd to be a little more "juiced up" tonight. And no, I'm not worried that the Miners have already wrapped up the conference regular season title... they want to win this game and win is big. UTEP's biggest downfall lately has been allowing too high of a three-point percentage to their opponents, but that's not a problem at home where they allow less than 30% from behind the arc. I like UTEP big tonight at home.

VILLANOVA - Despite some ugly play from the 'Cats over the past few weeks, this team still actually has a chance to get a #1 seed out west in the Big Dance. With a strong showing today and a solid showing in the conference tournament, Villanova could put themselves in a position to earn a #1 seed. Remember, a few weeks ago these guys were a lock for a #1 seed, so it's really not too far-fetched of an idea. Honestly, both of these teams are very good and could be deserving of a top seed, but when it comes down to it, I think the lack of solid free throw shooting from the Mounties will lead to their ultimate demise.

The Mountaineers shoot just 69% from the stripe and they seem to get worse when the game is on the line. Remember, they let Pittsburgh back in a game they had no business getting back into because of West Virginia's horrible free throw shooting in the final minute. Let's also keep in mind WVU is not a good ATS team, covering just 12 times in 28 games and just 6 of 14 on the road. Villanova, on the other hand, has covered 8 of 12 lined home games and they need this game a whole heck of a lot more than West Virginia does. When the Philly crowd gets into it, the Wildcats play at a different level, and having proven they can already beat this team on the road, I have no doubts they get the job done again today with a small Vegas line sitting in front of them. Take 'Nova minus the small impost.

Triple Threat Sports

3* Nevada (-) over Louisiana Tech

First and foremost, really impressed with Nevada's win over New Mexico State on Thursday, as the Aggies are a high quality team when healthy, which they were then they played the Wolf Pack. La Tech did win the season's first meeting, but not only did the aforementioned Gibson play in that contest but the Bulldogs only won by six despite attempting 14 more free throws. Now that the home zebra edge will be with UNR look for the Wolf Pack to post another win at the Lawlor Events Center.

LARRY NESS

10* CBB Total Of The Month! UNC/Duke Over

Lately, Duke has been unbeatable at Cameron - except when North Carolina makes the eight-mile trip up Tobacco Road to renew college basketball's fiercest rivalry. The Blue Devils are one win away from their 15th perfect finish at home and would set a school record with their 17th home victory. Duke hasn't beaten the Tar Heels in Durham since 2005 - before North Carolina fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard arrived along with eventual national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough in 2005-06. "There's no question that it's something that we're very proud of," Ginyard said. "But again, you've just got to get back to remembering why we were so successful there." North Carolina had two constants during its four-game winning streak from 2006-09: Hansbrough and Danny Green, two of the only four players to beat Coach K four straight times on the court that now bears his name. Those seniors - plus standout guards Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington - departed after winning a national title, and the players who stuck around have spent a difficult season absorbing their share of lumps, though they have won two straight to stay above .500 (note: Duke actually beat UNC 64-54 on its home floor back on Feb 10th). Duke dropped a hard fought, 79-72, decision at Maryland on Wednesday. Nolan Smith led the way with 20 points, while Jon Scheyer added 19 points. Brian Zoubek paced the Blue Devils with 13 rebounds, including six offensive boards. The loss snapped Duke’s season-best eight-game win streak. Make no mistake though, Duke wants to punish this team while its down; a win by the Blue Devils, who hold the tiebreaker advantage with Maryland, would give them their 12th regular-season title and the No. 1 seed in next week's ACC tournament. The Terrapins face Virginia, which is one game out of the ACC's cellar, in their finale (note: Duke soared over the total in its last game by 15 points). Expect both teams to leave everything on the floor and for this total to sail well "over" the posted number.

9* Perfect Storm - Coastal Carolina.

Gregg Marshall came to Wintrhop prior to the the 1998-99 season and from that season through 2006-07 took the Eagles to seven NCAA berths in nine years. In his final season (2006-07) his Eagles finally broke through, beating Notre Dame 74-64 in the NCAA's first round. Marshall left after that year for Wichita State with Randy Peele taking over. Wintrhop would win 22 games in Peele's first season (2007-08) and an eighth Big South tourney title and NCAA appearance for the Eagles in 10 years but last year's team fell to 11-19. Five starters returned this year and while Winthrop improved, it entered this year's Big South tourney at a modest 16-13 overall and with the third seed at 12-6. However, the Eagles are back in the Big South championship game after beating Liberty and then last year's regular season and tourney champ Radford 61-46 on Thursday. The Eagles have size in 6-9 St Bonny transfer Morgan (9.5-4.6) and 6-10 senior Buechert (6.0-6.5) plus a solid small forward in 6-5 senior Robinson (8.0-6.3). The backcourt is young, led by sophomore Middleton (10.4-3.3-3.0) and freshman Dreher (6.1). Middleton's been the star with 42 points in Winthrop's two tourney wins but here the Eagles meet a better team and one on a mission. Coastal Carolina's heyday was back in the late-80s, early-90s when the school won four Big South regular season titles and made two NCAA appearances (1991 and 1993). From 1993-94 through last year (16 years), the Chanticleers (great nickname) had just two winning seasons, including the first two of current head coach Cliff Ellis (24-35). However, Ellis can coach. He led South Alabama to two NCAA berths, Clemson to three (including the Clemson's first-ever ACC first-place regular season title in 1990) and Auburn to three NCAA berths, winning national coach-of-the-year in 1999 at Auburn when his Tigers won 29 games and captured the school’s first SEC championship in 40 years. Coastal Carolina won the Big South this year at 15-3, adding tourney wins over VMI and NC-Asheville to enter this game at 28-5 overall (Ellis now owns 664 all-time wins). Coastal Carolina lacks Winthrop's height but 6-5 senior Harris (14.8-9.8) has 28 points and 27 rebounds in the team's first two tourney wins with 6-7 JUCO transfer Gray (14.3-4.8) adding 37 points. The 6-6 Johnson (8.2-3.3) and 6-8 freshman McLaurin (3.2-5.0) give the Chants plenty of muscle up front. The backcourt features senior Edwards (12.2-4.2) plus freshman Greenwood (9.0-3.3 APG) and Nieman (6.3-3.2). This is the school's biggest game in almost two decades and the Chants get to play at home where they are 16-1 this year, outscoring opponents on average 76.3-to-59.5 PPG. That includes a 57-47 win over Winthrop (5-11 SU on the road TY) back on January 2.

8* Weekend WIPEOUT WINNER - New York Knicks.

The Nets (6-55) are on pace for the worst record in N.B.A. history (9-73). The Knicks (21-40) are headed for their third straight 50-loss season. If they pooled their victories today, a merged Nets-Knicks team would have only the 21st-best record in the league. At the present rate, they will produce 36 victories and 128 losses this season, for a .221 winning percentage, their worst combined record since the Nets joined the N.B.A. in 1976. (The previous low came in 1986-87, when the Knicks and Nets each went 24-58, for a .293 percentage.) They will meet Saturday night at Madison Square Garden, for the final time this season, with the Knicks holding a 2-1 advantage in the series. There are no bragging rights to be gained, only humiliation to be avoided. The Knicks are one of five teams to lose to the Nets and do not want to join Charlotte, the only one to lose to the Nets twice. For the Nets, every defeat nudges them closer to the infamous 9-73 record compiled by the Philadelphia 76ers in 1972-73. New Jersey has only allowed 98.6 points per game of late, but as has been the case all season, the offense hasn’t been there to push it over the top. The Nets’ 97-87 loss to Orlando on Friday marked the 30th time they’ve failed to score 90 (note: New Jersey is 0-4 ATS this season as a road dog of 6 1/2 to 9 points). The Knicks have a first-time All-Star at forward, David Lee, and promising young players in Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. They expected to at least match their 32-50 record of last season, which now seems impossible. New York’s 102-96 loss at Toronto on Friday was its 11th in 13 games and its 20th in 26. The Raptors, who were without Bosh after he was hospitalized with severe stomach pains, became the fifth team in six games to shoot better than 50 percent against the Knicks (note: New York is in fact 3-1 ATS as a home favourite of 6 1/2 to 9 points). This will be the third straight year that neither team makes the playoffs, the longest drought that the New York area has experienced. At this point in the season home-court advantage can't be overlooked and I expect the Knicks to play with a concerted effort on their home floor and after a sub-par performance; lay the points.

10* Conf-USA "GOY" - UAB.

UTEP is already the Conference USA regular season champion and will make a final performance tonight in the Don Haskins Center, taking on a very good (and dangerous) and somewhat desperate UAB club; the No. 24 Miners (No. 21 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches' poll) are 23-5, 14-1 in conference play. UAB, coming off a costly loss to Memphis, is 23-6 and 11-4; suffice to say I expect a rebound. And do not forget the last time these two teams met, UTEP edged then-No. 25 UAB 74-65 in double-overtime back on Jan. 30 in Birmingham, Ala.; UAB will also be playing with the "revenge" this evening. Also note that UAB is in fact 7-1 SU its last eight on the road overall. Elijah Millsap is fifth in Conference USA in scoring (16.1 points per game) and leads C-USA in rebounding (9.3 rebounds per game). Aaron Johnson is fourth in the league in assists (4.9). Howard Crawford (12.4) and Jamarr Sanders (10.7) also average in double-figure scoring for the Blazers. These teams have ridden their defense to this point in the season. UAB is second in the conference in scoring defense, giving up just 61.4. UTEP is fifth, giving up only 64.6 points a game. The Miners are tied with Marshall for the league lead in field goal percentage defense (38.9) and UAB is fifth (41.2). UTEP leads the league in 3-point field goal percentage defense (29.9) and UAB is fourth (31.1) (note: UTEP is a poor 2-7 ATS its last nine at home). With so much at stake for UAB, I look for the Blazers to keep this one close down the stretch; grab the points.

8* Morning Massacre - Villanova.

The tenth ranked West Virginia Mountaineers pay a visit to the No. 9 Villanova Wildcats at noon. Villanova will be looking to continue to build momentum; after losing to Syracuse in embarrassing fashion last Saturday, the Wildcats were able to avoid a huge letdown in Cincy. Although it almost blew a 16-point lead, the Wildcats prevailed with a 77-73 win. After the victory, 'Nova head coach Jay Wright said; “Hey, it was a tough loss (at Syracuse). It didn’t kill us, but it was a tough loss. And what you get to recover from that is being at Cincinnati against a team that’s hungry and tough and physical.” (note: Villanova is 10-4 ATS its last 14 in front of the home town crowd). West Virginia comes into this game tied for place in the Big East standings with Pittsburgh. Although its won four of its last five, I believe Da'Sean Butler will struggle against the Wildcats tenacious defines (note: West Virginia is in fact a poor 3-6 SU its last nine on the road vs. the Wildcats). G Scottie Reynolds, Villanova's sharpshooter and team captain is putting up 18.9 points per game this season, tops on the squad. He has been the picture of consistency over the last month and a half of action, as he has scored at least 15 points in each of his L/11 games and has only failed to reach that number six times all season. I don't think home court advantage can be overlooked in this case; lay the points.

RAS

Montana State -2.5

KELSO

50 Units Maryland -4.5
15 Units Vandy -10.5
10 Units Cal -6
5 Units Colorado -4.5

More Later

BEN BURNS

VERY EARLY BURNS BLUE CHIP OVER/UNDER BLOWOUT - FSU/MIAMI UNDER 128.5

PERSONAL FAVORITE MAJOR BLOWOUT ALERT - UTAH STATE -13.5

BEST BET ATS ROUT - MISSOURI +3

NBA GAME OF THE MONTH - CHICAGO BULLS +1.5