Alatex
15* Miss St
UConn
Baylor
Georgia
St. Joe Over
Executive
300% Texas A&M
Young Guns
3* Clev
Hot Shots
3* Houston -3.5
Bob Balfe
Heat -1.5 over Hawks
Missouri +3 over Kansas
Tim Trushel
20* Oregon
Villanova
Virginia
Missouri
Baylor
Knicks Over
Charlies Sports
500* Western Kentucky -14.5
500* UTEP -5
500* Pacers @ Suns Over 221
30* Marquette -7.5
20* Louisville +1
20* Charlotte U +2
10* Memphis U -7.5
10* Milwaukee Bucks +3 Free Play
Scott Spreitzer
5* Pittsburgh
Marry Otto
20* Baylor
Villanova
Arizona
DAVE MALINSKY
4* #VILLANOVA over WEST VIRGINIA
We have written about West Virginia often this season, and how the Mountaineers are not quite the sum of their parts. Rarely has any team had the number of active and agile front-court players that Bob Huggins possesses, with Da’Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks tremendous individual talents with long NBA careers ahead of them. But this is a team that is weak at both the Center and Point Guard positions, and you can only go so far if you do not play those positions well. So while they still check in at a Top 10 team with a 23-6 record, we have been able to go 3-1 in the four times that we have played against them in Big East play, taking advantage of those games in which there were real matchup headaches, and we do that again here.It was purely a sin of omission that Villanova’s earlier trip to Morgantown was not one of those play-against setting, but we were concerned about Jay Wright’s team having to play two tough road games in three days, coming out of Georgetown on a Saturday before the Monday night tilt. But it was no problem – the Wildcats controlled the flow throughout in an 82-75 win, rolling to an 11-point advantage at intermission. The key was that dribble penetration from Scottie Reynolds and the other Villanova guards, which exposes the single biggest Mountaineer weakness. Reynolds had 21 points and five assists in only 31 minutes that night, and he helped to break the defense down on easy drives to the basket, setting the Wildcats up to make 60percent (24-40) of their two-point shot attempts.Those matchups do not change here, and if anything they become magnified in the LHG for Reynolds, one of Villanova’s all-time greats (with four points he will be second on the school scoring list), and Reggie Redding. That brings a special level of emotion here that negates any “revenge” advantage that W.V.U. might have had, but there is more – Villanova won the battle of the boards 37-27 in the first meeting despite Mouphtaou Yarou not being available yet. His 6-10 presence has now become a key cog, with 71 floor minutes over the last three games, a span in which he has scored 27 points, grabbed 16 rebounds, and blocked six shots. He adds to the matchup headaches for Bob Huggins here, and it sets up Fisher and Redding to end their home careers in style
6* VANDERBILT over SOUTH CAROLINA
The slide of South Carolina and Devan Downey has not been news to us
? we have been able to project and chart their slide, including
cashing one 6* ticket already (Georgia nearly winning outright as a
road dog in Columbia), and while the Under was the wrong way to go in
their 79-70 home loss to Alabama on Wednesday, many of the elements
we wrote about were there. The Gamecocks can only go as far as Downey
can take them after losing Mike Holmes and Dominique Archie so early
in the season, and their diminutive floor leader is simply gassed
right now. Over the last six games he has shot only 44-127 from the
field, and the result has been an 0-6 SU and ATS slide in which the
oddsmakers have missed their projections by an average of 8.5 points
per game. And it is getting worse instead of better ? in the last two
outings they have lost to the spread by a combined 25 points. There
simply is not much there, with no one outside of Downey capable of
scoring, and a depth-shy front line getting battered on the boards to
the ugly tune of -79 rebounds in that 0-6 slide. Darrin Horn can only
sum it up with - ?It goes without saying that confidence is an
issue right now.? So is motivation. With the conference
tournament starting here in Nashville later in the week there is not
a target for Carolina to shoot at this afternoon; if anything Horn
might even choose it as a time to give Downey a bit of a breather.
It all sets up for the Gamecocks as being in the wrong place at the
wrong time here. While they are limping to the finish line, a deep
and talented Vanderbilt squad is looking like Sweet 16 material. The
only loss in the last seven games was that heart-breaker vs.
Kentucky, and in that span they picked up solid road wins at
Mississippi, Arkansas and Florida. Now they return to their home
floor in the LHG for key cog Jermaine Beal, the leading scorer this
season, and also a player that has had more wins (90) in a Commodore
uniform than any in the history of the program. This will be his
129th game, and 95th start, and as the emotional leader of the team
on the court it creates a spark for the rest of his teammates to send
him out in style.
That is not a problem in this matchup. Vanderbilt rolled by 10 on the
road earlier, back when South Carolina was a much fresher team, and
Downey erupted for 35 points on 12-21 shooting. That fact that the
margin was still that wide showcased the board domination (rebounds
were 40-23), and the ability of A. J. Ogilvy to operate inside (22
points in 26 minutes). Now all of those edges are even more
pronounced, and a team that will be playing its only game in a 10-day
period before the S.E.C. tourney opens is going to use a high level
of energy to break this one wide open.
4* MISSOURI over KANSAS
The notion of the Last Home Game for a key cluster of Seniors is
something that we take advantage of often, and was the subject of a
RIM SHOTS column last weekend, as we set up the tools for this
final week. We have an absolutely textbook example here. A Missouri
team that has three SR?s in the starting lineup ? J. T. Tiller, Keith
Ramsay and Zaire Taylor, will play with a special level of emotion
today, and against a Kansas team that is immediately off of their own
Senior Night in that grudge match win over Kansas State, we smell the
outright upset in this one.
The trio of Missouri SR?s have helped to turn this program around,
and in fact Tiller was the first player signed by Mike Anderson to
play for the Tigers. Their time together on the court (they have
combined for 178 career starts) has enabled Anderson to take his
presses to an extremely high level, and that savvy and chemistry has
paid off in a major way ? not only are they leading the nation in
steals per game and turnovers forced per game, but even when
opponents break those presses nothing comes easily in the half-court,
with only 40.1 percent shooting being allowed, and 29.7 beyond the
arc. In front of a sell-out crowd, and with a prime revenge motive
from that earlier drubbing in Lawrence, those presses become as
intense of a factor today as they perhaps have been in any game since
Anderson came to Columbia.
So under the veteran leadership of Sherron Collins the Jayhawks can
handle these presses, right? Think again. In a 62-60 loss on this
court LY, Kansas was forced into 26 turnovers, with Collins giving it
away six times while shooting 4-13 from the field. Did they find the
answers in that 84-65 earlier home win? No. How about 23 more
turnovers, with Collins coughing it up four times and making only
2-11 shots? The bottom line is that the Jayhawks are vulnerable to
exactly the way that Missouri defends, but they got away with it in
the first meeting because of one of the truly remarkable shooting
lines of this season ? the Tigers were only 13-50 on two-point
attempts in Lawrence. That is an extreme swing of the pendulum,
and one that we can fully expect to see return to a more normal rate
here.
Kansas used a lot of emotion in the LHG for Collins on Wednesday
night, a game in which he played 38 minutes, and only two reserves
were on the court for more than eight. With the Jayhawk focus since
the opening practice being on the National Championship there is
absolutely no urgency for this setting, and if anything Bill Self
might want to avoid seeing Collins wear down, off of 360 minutes in
the last 10 games. A loss here does not take away the #1 seed they
will get for the Big Dance, and the truth is that even if they were
on top of their game this would have been a tough setting to survive
anyway.
5* BAYLOR over TEXAS
Baylor is flat out better than Texas. The Bears are ahead of the
Longhorns in the conference standings, and the numbers across the
board tell us that the W/L column does not lie. Baylor has shot 47.7
percent in Big 12 play, including 39.0 from 3-point range. For Texas
it is 44.5 and 37.1. Baylor has allowed 41.4 percent shooting, while
for Texas it has been 42.3. Baylor has made 78.2 percent of
conference free throws, Texas 62.7. And on and on. And the last two
meetings between these teams have seen the Bears win outright on a
neutral court in LY?s Big 12 tourney, and in Austin earlier this
season. Meanwhile today?s setting brings a Baylor time primed for the
LHG emotion behind long-term mainstays Tweety Carter and Josh Lomars,
who will be combining for their 248th game in Bear uniforms,
including 153 starts, while Texas is not even the sum of those
earlier numbers because of the loss of Dogus Balbay, Varez Ward and
Shawn Williams.
So why on earth would Baylor be favored by less than a usual home
court advantage for this one, in front of a rare sell-out crowd in
Waco? Deal us in.
Looking for a sleeper that can get to the Sweet 16 in a couple of
weeks? Baylor fits. The Bears have both size and athleticism, and a
set rotation in which seven different players average at least 17
minutes per game. They can score outside with Carter (15.8 ppg) and
LaceDarius Dunn (18.9), and inside with Ekpe Udoh (13.6). Four
different players have at least 51 assists, which shows their
unselfish play, and nothing comes easily around the basket against
them, with 211 blocked shots. They have not lost a game by more than
seven points all season, and that includes having to play these
Longhorns, Kansas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State on the Big 12 road.
Now they check in off of the confidence boost of back-to-back road
wins, games in which they controlled Oklahoma and Texas Tech by a
combined 25 points, and are ready to play as well today as they have
in any game this season.
Then there is Texas. It has been an ugly series of stumbles for the
Longhorns after actually being rated #1 at one point in the season,
with the chemistry never meshing and the PG play simply abysmal. It
shows no better than in today?s category ? they have been Big 12
underdogs three times, taking an 0-3 SU and ATS collar, and falling
to the spread by a collective 33.5 points in those games. There have
already been four conference road losses, in addition to a 14-point
defeat at Connecticut in late January, and this line is merely the
residue of what their early reputation was, and not the true current
state of affairs.
4* ARIZONA over SOUTHERN CAL
We did not get the money playing against a Southern Cal team that
coach Kevin O?Neill referred to as ?fried? on Thursday, but it was
yet another Trojan defeat, the fourth straight for a tired team that
lost whatever motivation they had for the season two weeks ago when
they fell out of the Pac 10 race. We will not hesitate to come right
back here in a game in which the energy levels may be gapped as wide
as any on Saturday?s board board.
This is a brutally short turnaround for a fading team ? the Trojans
go from Thursday night?s loss at Arizona State to a game that tips
off at 10:30 AM on their body clocks, and we have to question where
the energy comes from. And it is not just the players, but their
coach as well. Here is O?Neill?s assessment - ?I?m as tired now as
I?ve been in any season, including an NBA season. I?ve coached uphill
a lot, but the incline on this one was pretty good. You couldn?t
write a script with more difficult circumstances.? Now it is time
for that season to come to an end, and we expect nothing special from
the final 40 minutes. Even if the will was there the bodies might not
be anyway ? note that in their last four ?two in three? Pac 10 cycles
they have gone 0-4 ATS in that second game, losing to the spread by
31.5 points.
This is an entirely different setting for Arizona. In the LHG for
floor leader Nic Wise, and the final salvo from Sean Miller?s first
season, the Wildcats can bring a lot of spark, especially with one
more win likely getting them into a post-season tourney. They have
shown a lot of energy in rallying from halftime deficits to beat
Stanford and U.C.L.A. in their last two games, and there are real
building blocks for the future. FR Derrick Williams has lived up to
expectations with 15.7 ppg and 6.9 rebounds and fellow starting FR
Solomon Hill has also grown up over the course of the first season at
Division I. With classmate Lamont Jones starting to find his game (16
points off the bench in each of those last two wins), this is a
hungry and confident team now, and a far cry from the unseasoned
bunch that was tripped up 56-50 at Southern Cal in the conference
opener on New Year?s Eve. In that one they fell behind by 17 points
in the first half and finished with their season lows in points and
shooting percentage, but that turns around in a major way here.
4* MARQUETTE/NOTRE DAME Under
We had the right idea with Notre Dame last weekend at Georgetown – the Fighting Irish were better defensively without Luke Harangody, but would play at a snails pace, and it led to an easy Under ticket. We had the wrong idea on Wednesday, when we thought that the motion of the G’town upset would wear off – once again they played excellent team defense, and Tory Jackson and Ben Hansbrough gutted it out through the full 40 minutes to get the win. In retrospect it should have been another Under call, rather than a Side play, as the fatigue did show in the Irish offensive legs (36.5 percent shooting, 3-15 from 3-point range). Now we can get back in the game here, as the oddsmakers remain slow to react despite the fact that the last three Notre Dame games have played Under by a collective 57 points.Once again we are going to see a slow tempo here – Mike Brey can not play it any other way. And once again Irish points will be hard to come by. Marquette provides a most difficult defensive challenge, a team loaded with quickness on the perimeter that has allowed only 31.6 percent triples this season, and because the Golden Eagles do not mind a methodical pace they are not going to break down late in the shot clock. That means the long N.D. possessions will often turn into tough shots at the end. But the Irish can still hold their own defensively against a Marquette attack that has not reached 70 points in regulation in any of their last six Big East games, and gets precious few easy baskets down low except in transition. Because of the way that Jackson and Hansbrough take care of the ball (only 26 team TO’s in the current 3-0 streak), those transition opportunities are few and far between
Dr. Bob
Opinions
Notre Dame (+7 1/2) over MARQUETTE
I won a Best Bet with Notre Dame over U Conn on Wednesday and I like the Irish again. When All-American F Luke Harangody went down with injury I calculated that the Notre Dame offense would actually be 1.5 points per game better without him (based on the team scoring efficiency (minus Harangody's numbers) being better than Harangody's efficiency). What has become apparent is that the Irish are also a better defensive team without Harangody and they certainly are more fluid offensively without running everything through him. The better defense is partly due to the Irish feeling more urgency to play good defense with Harangody out, but the real reason is probably the extra minutes that shot blocker Carlteon Scott is getting. Scott averages 1.1 blocks per game in just 16.7 minutes per game for the season, but he's averaged 2.2 blocks and 32.4 minutes in 5 games without Harangody, who averaged just 0.8 blocks in 35.3 minutes per game. The Irish failed to cover in their first game without their star, but they've covered 4 straight since and are coming off good victories over Pitt, Georgetown, and U Conn. Marquette is a solid team and the fair line on this game using all games for the season would be 8 points. However, Notre Dame is at least 2 points better without Harangody (they've actually been 7 1/2 points better in those 5 games, but some of that is likely due to variance). I favor Marquette by just 6 points in this game and I'll lean with the Irish plus the points.
Wright State (-5) over Detroit
Detroit is riding a 5 game win streak, but the Titans are due for a letdown and Wright State applies to a very good 209-92-6 ATS conference tournament situation. My ratings favor Wright State by only 4 points and I'm not going to give up the line value to make this a Best Bet even though the situation is so good. I'll lean with Wright State at the current price and I'd make Wright State a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Ron Raymond
ATL / MIA Over 185.5
Auburn / Alabama Under 143.5
Va. Tech / Georgia Tech Over 137.5
Texas / Baylor Under 145
ATS Financial
4 Units Maryland -4.5
4 Units St Joes -1.5
4 Units Arkansas +1.5
Power Play Wins
VILLANOVA -3
BYU -10.5
CHICAGO +1
PPP
6% SAINT LOUIS
5% NOTRE DAME
5% BAYLOR
4% TEXAS A&M
4% SYRACUSE
4% SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI