Ben Burns
Blue Chip - Athletics/Blue Jays Under
ATS Lock Club
3 Units Cavs Over 191
KIKI SPORTS
3 Units Arizona -110
1 Unit Mets/Phils UNDER 8
1 Unit Milwaukee -130
1 Unit White Sox +145
1 Unit Angels -105
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Arizona
Ben Burns
Big Chalk Game of the Month - Phillies
May Day Afternoon Annihilator - San Fran Giants
NHL Best Bet O/U - Blackhawks UNDER
Billy Coleman
4* Bos +7.5
3* Bos/Clev Over 191
4* Oak/Tor Under 9
3'* Phil +130
Jeff Benton
30 Dime: BOSTON CELTICS
Jeff Benton
30 Dime Celtics
Scott Delaney
10 Dime Celtics
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Celtics
10 Dime Twins
Anthony Redd
15 Dime Mets
10 Dime Mets/Phillies Over
Craig Davis
40 Dime Reds/Cardinals Over
25 Dime Celtics/Cavaliers Under
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Arizona
4 Units Toronto
4 Units NYM Under 8
ASA
5* Cincinnati Reds / St Louis Over 9
Busch Stadium has been one of the lowest scoring parks in baseball this season, averaging less than seven runs per game with batters hitting just .235. Only nine home runs have been hit in St. Louis all season despite eleven games being played there heading into tonight’s game with Cincinnati, not to mention several powerful bats in the Cardinal lineup. The ‘under’ is 7-4 in games in St. Louis but the totals on Cardinals games will continue to be lower than they should be. Keep in mind two of the top three in the Cy Young voting from 2009 pitch for the Cardinals and Brad Penny and Jaime Garcia have also had unbelievable starts. Also consider that St. Louis has hosted the Astros, Mets, and Braves in the three sets of home games, three of the weakest hitting teams in baseball. With the Reds in town the numbers for both teams and Busch Stadium should go up considerably.
St. Louis is scoring runs, averaging nearly five runs score per game with an average over 5.5 in the last ten games. Cincinnati is allowing over six runs per game in the last ten contests and the Reds have really struggled in the late innings as the bullpen has been ineffective despite a strong effort last night. The Reds are 3-1 when Homer Bailey starts but he has not pitched well, featuring a 7.06 ERA for the season. Bailey has allowed at least seven hits in every start despite six innings being his longest outing and he has allowed at least three runs in each start. St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse has made two solid starts at home but again, weak hitting lineups were matched up. Lohse has a 6.55 ERA for the season and Milwaukee and Arizona pounded him in earlier starts. Lohse is yet to allow a home run but he has picked up just seven strikeouts and his walk totals are up from his career norms.
These teams scored 29 runs in the first series of the season in Cincinnati but that was with the three best pitchers for each team. Bailey and Lohse are barely clinging to jobs in the rotation and neither team has been as strong as last season with regards to relief pitching. These are two of the better offensive teams in the National League as Cincinnati has scored 106 runs and St. Louis has scored 105 runs this season and both teams entered this series on winning streaks with the offenses posting strong numbers. It is far too early to give weight to the low numbers at Busch and value is on the ‘over’ in this match-up.
Last night these teams combined to score just five runs but a lot of momentum was lost with an over two hour rain delay in the sixth inning as there was no scoring after play resumed. The teams combined for 20 hits last night against stronger starting pitching than will be on the mound tonight. There were also five double plays, two outfield assists, and a pickoff in last night’s game. All told last night’s game should have added up to much more scoring with several missed opportunities. That low-scoring result keeps this line in check however and the ‘over’ should be a great play for Saturday afternoon as the conditions look favorable for significant scoring. Umpire Paul Emmel has resided over a lot of low-scoring games so far this season but he is regarded as one of the least consistent in the league. His final four games in 2009 all played well ‘over’ and he has managed to get the call behind elite pitchers so far this season, something that will not be the case today.
Scott Rickenbach
8* Boston / Philadelphia Over
We’re putting the same principle into play that we used in yesterday in easily cashing a ticket on over the total in Pittsburgh. Yesterday, the Penguins and Canadiens were already over the total in the 2nd period. The reason for the low total posted on the game had a lot to do with goalie Jaroslav Halak because the Montreal netminder had carried the Habs to their series win over the Capitals in the first round. As we discussed yesterday, facing a different team can totally change things up on a goalie and that is what Halak and the Canadiens fell victim to yesterday. We wouldn’t be surprised to see that end up being the same situation in this game early Saturday. This total is being kept low because of the great job Tuukka Rask has done between the pipes for the Bruins. However, this is still a young netminder who is now facing a whole different set of challenges against the Flyers. Also, Rask did allow three goals in each of his last two starts against the Sabres.
The Flyers come into this series riding high after totally ripping the Devils in the first round. However, Philadelphia’s weakness this season (even though they got strong play in the first round) is their goaltending. The Flyers have turned to Brian Boucher and the 33-year old journeyman has played very well in the post-season but did not fare well in the regular season plus he and his teammates are now coming off of an eight day break. On the road this season Boucher went 5-11-1 with a 3.01 GAA. Also, the Flyers are 7-1 to the over this season when they are playing with three or more days of rest! The Bruins, before their 3-0 win in Game Six, had seen each of their last three games total at least five goals. Also, five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Play OVER the total in Boston as an *8* Regular Play selection.
8* NY Yankees / Chicago White Sox Over
Very warm temperatures are expected in the Bronx this afternoon. Also, this is well known as a home run hitters dream park. That said, despite John Danks fantastic numbers so far this season, we certainly don’t see him shutting down the Yankees in this one. Note that, as strong as the ChiSox southpaw has been this season, he did have to work out of some key jams in his most recent start and we believe it’s a sign of things to come. Today, on a warm afternoon in the Bronx, any jams that Danks get into will most certainly be tougher to get out of. Additionally, the left-hander has a 6.06 ERA in his career against the Yankees. However, Danks certainly isn’t the only hurler that is likely to find out this new ballpark is not to his liking. Javier Vazquez of the Yankees is off to a horrific start this season and he now faces a team that, despite it’s low overall performance at the plate, has been relying heavily on the long ball for it’s run production this season and the new Yankee Stadium has treated home run hitters well. The White Sox are ranked 3rd (and the Yankees 6th) for home runs so far this season! That’s out of all 30 MLB teams.
While Vazquez is going against a former team and will be motivated by that this afternoon, he’s not pitching well enough to be likely to exact any revenge here. Vazquez has been hit at a .309 clip so far this season and he’s allowed five homers in his four starts! This total dropped to a 9 this morning because of Danks performance so far this season. However, based on the warm weather, Danks long-term performance against the Yankees, and the current struggles of Vazquez this season, there is a ton of value with this low total here. The Yankees are 9-2 to the over this season when the posted total on their game is 9 or 9.5 runs. The White Sox are 4-1 to the over when they are on the road and the posted total on their game is 9 or 9.5 runs. That means we’ve got edges of 13-3 ATS working in our favor for the over in this game and we won’t hesitate to invest in this one! Play OVER the total in the New York Yankees game as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Lenny Del Genio
20* Cavs -7
JR O'Donnell
3* CHI (-150) vs VAN
The 52-22 Chicago Blackhawks are redhot and smoking right now as we will play on the better team here and a dominant home record at the United Center. A smoking 9-1 90% home mark puts JR on the Chicago rookie net minder Antti Niemi, He threw up 2 O's over the Nash Predators in the last series. Luongo is shaky at best and the Blackhawks will find a way to best Vancouver tonight. The "High" energy at the United Center will be a huge factor here as Vancouver will fold late. The Power ratings here on ice have a 1.36 goal variance.
Stephen Nover
15 Dime Arizona Diamondbacks
10 Dime Boston Celtics
King Creole
2* BOS / CLE Under 191
For purposes of today's write up, the FIRST game in the SECOND round of the NBA Playoffs is known as the '2.1' game.
CLEVELAND: 1-5 O/U in the '2.1' game... including a PERFECT 0-3 O/U In the last three years.
BOSTON: 1-4-1 O/U In the '2.1' game...
Check this out.... in LAST year's NBA Playoffs, the '2.1' game went a PERFECT 0-8 O/U!
9-17 O/U: All NUMBER ONE (#1) Seeds in the '2.1' game (Cavs)... including 0-6 O/U In the last three years.
0-5 O/U last 3 years: All NBA Playoff GAME ONES (any round) for Eastern Conference NUMBER FOUR (#4) Seeds (Celtics).
0-4 O/U since 2000: All NBA Playoff '2.1' games when the OU line range is 191 to 199 points...
2-14 O/U: All NBA Playoff '2.1' home teams playing off an "UNDER" result in their last game (Cavs)... including a PERFECT 0-13 O/U when the OU Line is > 173 points.
0-7 O/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff '2.1' underdogs playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT SU win (Celtics)... when the OU line is points playing on a SATURDAY (Cavs). When the OU line is 177 > points, these games have gone 0-7 O/U.
0-6-1 O/U ALL the way back to 1991: All NBA Playoff '2.1' games on a SATURDAY when the OU line is 184 > points (Cavs).
Both teams come in very well rested. The Cavs and Celtics last played on Tuesday, giving them each three days of rest.
1-5 O/U: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE favs (ANY round) of -6 > points when BOTH teams come in off 3 days REST (Cavs / Celtics).