Steven Budin
The New York Crew has a 50 Dime Release on Boston as the home favorite Saturday night against Orlando in Game 3. As I release this play on Thursday at 5:45 PM Eastern, the Celtics are between -3 and -3 1/2 in Las Vegas and offshore. In either case, I would purchase the insurance and buy down the 1/2 point on Boston, reducing the price to -2 1/2 or -3 depending on your beginning number+
SEAN MICHAELS
100 DIME Boston Celtics
BEN BURNS
10* Magic
10* Ariz
7* StL
7* Colo
7* Nats
Chris Jordan
400 Units Braves
100 Units Magic
Mike Lineback
Magic Under 190.5
Bob Balfe
Cincinnati Reds +105
Both starting pitchers have pitched very well this season, but this game will come down to manufacturing runs. The Indians are a low-scoring team; Johnny Cueto should shutdown their struggling offense today and receive enough run support to pick up the win. Take the Reds.
Boston Celtics -3.5
The only people who are taking the Magic would be those who are betting with their heart and still holding on to hope. Boston has a ton of experience and all of their players are meshing together at the right time. The Celtics played outstanding defense on the road and it will be even tighter at home. The Magic have been figured out by Doc Rivers and the coaching staff and Rajon Rondo is unfortunately a step above our beloved Jameer Nelson. The parity between both of these teams has been displayed and it provides evidence that Boston is a better basketball team than Orlando and they have a ton more of playoff experience. Big home win for the Celtics tonight. Take Boston.
Craig Davis
40* Celtics
15* Celtics Under
King Creole
2* Magic / Celtics Under 191
Let's face it... this has been an EXTREMELY low-scoring series as of late. And we ALWAYS play on streaks to continue, whether they are ATS streaks or OU streaks. So with current streaks of 3-13 O/U in the last 13 games between these 2 teams... and 1-9 O/U in the last 10.... there's only ONE way to go. The last 7 games played IN Beantown have gone 1-6 O/U... and Boston is a PERFECT 0-6 O/U as favs of -4 or less points in this series.
Saturday's OU line of 189.5 to 191 points is right in step with previous lines in this series. Oddmakers STILL refuse to compensate for the LOWER-scoring patterns that we generally see in a Playoff series... but that's ok by me. We'll gladly play on the value of a game in which the OU line should justifiably be about 6-7 points lower than Saturday's posted total. The average OU line in this series (playoff AND regular season games) has been 189.9. And the average total points scored is only 177.6. That's more than 10 points lower than Saturday's line.
Let's look at GAME #3 of a Playoff series. We'll start with the '3/3' game specifically (Round 3 / Game 3).
5-17 O/U since 1991: All '3/3' games if the previous game ALSO went Under the Total. And if the OU line is 182 > points in these games, the OU results are a PERFECT 0-14 O/U!
1-8 O/U since 06: All Playoff GAME THREE #2 Seed teams playing off a SU loss (Magic). These teams have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U in Rounds 1. 2, or 3....
THREE days of rest is sure a long time at this point of a Playoff series. These two teams last played on Tuesday night... Let's look at the REST situation and the Day of the Week.
1-7 O/U since 92: All Playoff GAME THREE home teams with 3+ days of REST (Celtics) off a SUATS win... when the OU line is 189 > points.
0-4 O/U since 02: All Playoff ROUND 3 or 4 home teams on a SATURDAY playing with 3+ days rest (Celtics).
0-8 O/U since 01: All Playoff SATURDAY home favs of > 2 points (Celtcis) in ROUND THREE... with an OU line of > 183 points.
Let's review the current winning and losing STREAKS for each team:
After reeling off 8 STRAIGHT Playoff wins in a row, the Magic have lost two in a row...
0-5 O/U: All Playoff dogs of > 1 point playing off BB Playoff losses... and 5+ Playoff wins before that (Magic).
Boston has won AND covered EACH of their last 5 Playoff games...
0-6 O/U since 04: All Playoff GAME THREE or greater favorites (Celtics)... off 5 or more SU and ATS Playoff wins in a row.
0-6 O/U since 96: All Eastern Conference Playoff ROUND 3 / Games 1 thru 4 / with an OU line of 189 > points....
Larry Ness
10* IL Total of the Month Fla/Chi Over
The Marlins owned the NL's best interleague record (120-99) as this weekend's play began on Friday. However, Florida has had its fair share of offensive struggles away from Miami this year (3.52 RPG) and that continued last night even against a struggling Mark Buehrle. Florida was held to three hits in an 8-0 loss, getting shut out for the first time this season. Don't expect the Marlins' bats to stay quiet this afternoon against Gavin Floyd. Floyd showed little in his early years with the Phillies or in his first year in Chicago. He then had a breakout 2008 season, going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA (team was 22-11). He fell back last year (11-11 with a 4.06 ERA in 30 starts) and this year has been just awful. He's 1-4 with a 7.00 ERA in eight starts. Floyd's allowed 60 hits and 35 ERs in just 45 innings, allowing four or more ERs in SIX of those eight starts (FIVE or more five times!). "It’s just the way things have gone," Floyd said. "I can’t explain it. You just have to keep making your pitches." Florida will hand the ball to Chris Volstad (3-4, 4.29 ERA). The 6' 8" right-hander had that very promising 2008 season (6-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 14 starts) but couldn't follow that performance last season (9-13 with a 5.21 ERA). He's struggled badly on the road this year (6.17 ERA in four starts) and the White Sox are coming off an excellent game with 12 hits and eight runs. Volstad has never faced the White sox but owns a 7.47 ERA in three previous interleague starts. Expect both starters to struggle in this game and for this game to SOAR over the total.
FoxSheets 5/22
Super Situations
DETROIT at LA
Play On - Any team (DETROIT) average AL hitting team (AVG = .265 to .279) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
34-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 22.5 units )
Situational Power Trends
CUBS at TEXAS
TEXAS is 22-5 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in Home games in May games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (6.0) , OPPONENT (4.1)
David Banks
Boston Celtics -3.5
White Sox -122
Brewers +121
Braves -144
Dodgers -143
Diamondbacks -129
Jimmy Boyd
5* Orlando
4* Arizona
3* Colorado
Anthony Redd
25 Dime Magic
10 Dime Magic/Celtics Over
Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket Orlando Magic +3.5
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Magic +3.5
5 Units Padres -120
5 Units Blue Jays/DBacks Over 10.5
4 Units Twins -120