Hot Shots
5* Under Magic Total GOY
4* SF
3* Fla
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3* Under Tigers
Jeff Benton
30 Dime: Magic
I know I’ve gone down hard with the Magic in the first two games of this series. And I know because of that, this appears like a stubborn selection. But I promise you, it’s not. I truly believe the Magic will come to play tonight and will not only cover the pointspread, not only win the game outright, but win it comfortably.
How can I say that after watching Boston go into the Magic’s building and punk them twice in Games 1 and 2? How can I say that after watching the Celtics seemingly come up with the perfect formula for beating Orlando – that being defending the perimeter ferociously while playing Dwight Howard one-on-one down low? How can I say that when all the pundits – the vast majority of whom, by the way, picked the Magic to win this series before it started – are now predicting a Celtics sweep?
I’ve got several reasons, and the most important of all is the Orlando Magic didn’t suddenly morph into the New Jersey Nets in the last six days. This is still a team that won 67 of its first 90 games this season. This is still a team that split four regular-season meetings with the Celtics this year (including a victory in Boston). This is still a team that fell behind the Celtics 3-2 in last year’s conference semifinal series and came back to win, including a 19-point rout in Game 7 in Boston.
In a nutshell, I don’t see the Magic throwing in the towel. And I think the best thing that could’ve happened for them – and perhaps the worst thing that could’ve happened for Boston – was this long 72-hour layoff between Games 2 and 3. The layoff has given Orlando time to lick its wounds, refocus and go back to the drawing board, while giving the Celtics time to soak in all the adulation that’s come their way in the wake of a five-game winning streak against the top two teams in the NBA (three wins to close out Cleveland, two wins over Orlando).
I know the Celtics are a veteran squad with consummate pros, but don’t tell me what’s happened in the last 10 days hasn’t gone to the heads of some of these players. Remember: There’s a fine line between confidence and overconfidence in sports, and let’s just say I think the Celtics are straddling that line right now.
So what’s the answer to Orlando’s problems? Well, for one thing, I hope to hell Magic coach Stan Van Gundy has learned his lesson that he cannot put Vince Carter on the floor in crunch time, because the guy is the ultimate choker. The next time Carter comes up clutch down the stretch of an important game will be the first. Van Gundy HAS to know that now. He also has to know that starting forward Matt Barnes must be benched (Barnes is hurt and he’s been a big-time liability on the court with just eight points on 3-for-13 shooting in two games). And he also has to find a way to light a fire under Rashard Lewis, who has been rightfully shouldering a lot of the blame for the Magic’s current predicament (the highly paid sharpshooter is 4-for-16 overall, including 1-for-9 from three-point range, for a total of 11 points).
Lewis, who averaged 18.5 ppg against the Celtics in four regular-season games, is WAY too good a player to continue to stink this bad. And with the way he’s been taking a beating in the media, you have to hope he’ll take that criticism use it to fuel his fire tonight.
One more thing Van Gundy has to do to shake up his lineup: Give J.J. Redick more minutes (he had 16 points in Game 2 and played great defense on Ray Allen, who had just four points on 1-for-6 shooting), and team big men Howard and Marcin Gortat on the floor at the same time. Boston doesn’t have the size to combat both guys, and the “Twin Towers” presence down low is the only way Orlando is going to open things up for its perimeter shooters.
Finally, there’s been a lot blabber spewed over last three days about how this series is over and Orlando has no chance. These geniuses apparently chose to ignore one fact: Yes, the Celtics won both games in Orlando. And yes, they dominated big chunks of both games. But that doesn’t change the fact that the final scores were 92-88 and 95-92. That’s two wins by a total of seven points – not exactly blowouts.
Consider this too: The Magic lost three straight games just twice all year – and both times came during a 2-7 slump from early to mid-January. Last year, they lost three in a row just once (at the end of the season when the games didn’t matter). In fact, those are the only three occasions going all the way back to early January 2008 that the Magic have lost three in row. We’re talking two meaningful three-game losing streaks in 255 regular and postseason games!
Lastly, look at the pointspread in this game. If this series is truly over – if the Magic have NO chance – then why is Boston favored by just 3 to 3½ points at home? Putting it another way, why are the Celtics laying half the points that Orlando was laying at home in Games 1 and 2)? Because the oddsmakers know Orlando is still a very dangerous, very capable team.
The Magic are winning this game tonight, guys. And if Lewis wakes up out of his slumber, they’re going to win it by double digits!
Don Wallace Sports
10* Orlando +3.5
Lenny Stevens
10* Orlando
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