Stephen Nover
100 Dime Phoenix Suns -1.5
Anthony Redd
15 Dime - Lakers/Suns Under
Bobby Maxwell
400-Unit LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Chris Jordan
200♦ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
100♦ BOSTON RED SOX
Chuck O'Brien
25 DIME: MARLINS
20 DIME: WHITE SOX
Derek Mancini
20 Dime - Lakers
5 Dime - Red Sox
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Phoenix
10 Dime Texas
Bob Balfe
Marlins / Phillies Under 7
Even though the Phillies technically snapped out of their offensive slump last night, they only manufactured 3 runs and have to face a really confusing pitcher in Josh Johnson tonight and also have their man, Dr. Roy Halladay behind the mound. Do not be intimidated by the low total. This will end up being a 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 game. Each starter should last deep into the game and not allow multiple-run innings. Take the Under.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: St Louis at Chi. Cubs
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) OTTAVINO, Adam vs. (R) SILVA, C
Play: St Louis (ML +125)
We have another first-time starter going here as Adam Ottavino makes his debut for the Cardinals. Ottavino has only spotty overall numbers at AAA this season, but he's been much better of late. With the injury to Kyle Lohse, Ottavino gets his chance to carve out a spot in the Cardinals rotation, starting with today's duel against Carlos Silva and the Cubs. Ottavino has pretty good stuff, but he's likely had his progress stalled to some extent by his constant tinkering. There has already been some talk of converting him to a reliever as he owns a four-seamer that gets home in a hurry, and the fact is he doesn't own the versatile arsenal of pitches most starters need to flourish, But Ottavino has a good opportunity to do well here against hitters who have never seen him. It's sure not easy to fade Silva, who is on a monster roll for the Cubs. But I'm big on backing first-time starters, and I'm also getting the better team at decent dog odds. I'll go with the Cardinals to topple the Cubs again today.
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Matchup: Kansas City at Boston
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Sat)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) GREINKE, Z vs. (R) BUCHHOLZ, C
Play: Boston (ML -130)
Good matchup at Fenway on Saturday with Greinke taking on Buchholz. We all know what Greinke is capable of, but the bottom line is that he's got one win so far this season. Greinke has gotten hurt by poor run support and awful work by the Royals shoddy bullpen. He's also a little off his form right now, and I'm not surprised by this. When even the most talented pitchers feel they have to be perfect to win because of other things that are beyond their control, they often pitch less than their best. Clay Buchholz is looking every bit like the stud he was projected to be a couple years ago. He has ironed out his command issues and he's now trusting his front line stuff. Boston has to take this game seriously after losing the last two nights to the ragtag Royals, and I expect the Red Sox to get back in the win column tonight. The price, because of the presence of Greinke, is about as low as it gets for Boston hosting Kansas City and I'll step in and make the play on the Red Sox.
Bob Balfe
Lakers +1.5
Larry Ness
10* Perfect Storm - Suns -1.5
The Suns rallied from 18 points down in the third quarter of Game 5 in LA, tying it at 101-all when Richardson banked in a three-point shot with 3.5 seconds left in the contest (it was the Suns' third three-point attempt of the possession). However, the Lakers pulled out the two-point win when Kobe Bryant threw up an off-balance air ball and Artest hustled to retrieve it, then banked in a layup at the buzzer. The Suns' Nash was quoted on Friday as saying the Suns planned to win Game 6 in Phoenix and return to LA for a Game 7. That seemed to bother Game 5's hero, Artest. "That's like no respect for us. There's no respect. That's how it's been for a long time this season. I'm sure we'll talk about it," Artest said before the Lakers left Los Angeles on Friday. "Coaches have no respect for the Lakers at all. They have no respect for me. The players don't respect -- a lot of the guys don't respect. ... I'm sure Kobe heard that (what Nash said), and I'm sure he'll do his part tomorrow." I'm not sure I quite understand Artest's issue with Nash's statement but then again, did ANYONE understand Artest's post-game interview with Craig Sager? By the way, the above comments by Artest were made AFTER he was fined for showing up late for practice on Friday. Now there is a shock. No one can argue with Phil Jackson's success but one wonders why he can't get Artest to stop shooting three-pointers? He is 46-of-88 (52.3 percent) from inside the arc and 19-of-78 (24.4 percent) from beyond it. One would think Artest could figure it out himself but that would require some thought. Anyway, on to Game 6. The Suns didn't seem devastated by Thursday night's last-second loss. In fact, quite the opposite seemed true. The "close call" seemed to bolster their confidence and the team seems confident it can send this series back to LA for a Game 7. I agree. Kobe is going to be Kobe and Gasol has been a tough matchup for any team. However, Odom's production has been WAY OFF in Phoenix (compared to his 'monster' numbers in LA during this series), Bynum's been a non-factor all series and Artest should be ready for a slew of three-point misses tonight. The LA bench (excluding Odom, who has averaged 34.2 MPG this series) scored 25 and 19 points in the first two games of this series but has added eight, five and seven points the last three games. That Phoenix zone defense is working (126.0 PPG the first two games and 106 PPG the last three) on both the starters and the reserves. Stoudemire has not been aggressive in LA (4.3 RPG) but had 19 rebounds in the two games here in Phoenix, not to mention 42 and 21 points. Nash (17.0-12.4 APG) has had a very good series but needs to start making some threes (4-of-17 so far). The Phoenix bench 'woke up' in Game 4 and palyed fairly well in Game 5 as well (can't judge all performances against the one in Game 4). Bottom line is this. The Suns have convinced me that they are a different team this year than in years past and that 20-3 SU (18-4-1 ATS) home mark since the break cannot be ignored. LA may be 28-3 SU at home the last three postseasons but the Lakers are a modest 13-15 SU on the road. The Lakers are going to a need a Game 7 to get a 12th meeting all-time with the Celtics in the Finals. Take the Suns.
Lenny Del Genio
25* Marlins +110
Great pitching matchup tonight in Florida with Halladay for the Phillies and Johnson for the Marlins. Philadelphia won the first game of this 3-game series last night 3-2. However, the Phillies continue to struggle at the plate getting only seven hits last night. Coming into that game, they were only hitting .205 and averaging 1.9 runs per game over their past seven games. Trying to hit out of a slump will be tough against the Marlin’s ace. Johnson has been nearly unhittable of late. In his last two starts he hasn’t given up an earned run pitching 13 scoreless innings. In the start previous to those two he went seven innings against the Mets allowing only three hits and one earned run. Quite impressive! It won’t be easy for the Marlins to get to Halladay, but the Philly righty hasn’t been his best over the last three starts with a human like 4.29 ERA and in fact the Phillies have lost all three of those starts. We’re going to back Johnson at home tonight knowing that the Marlin righty has a 15-4 team start record when pitching as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 13-2 team start record at home in the first half of the season the last two years. 25* Play on Florida.
Tony George
Suns -1.5
Cannot go against a home team which is capable of winning, laying less than a bucket in a building where they have swept LA so far. After losing a heartbreaker on Thursday to LA, the Suns who are 38-18-1 their last 57 at home, shoot the 3 ball better in their own house and look for Steve Nash and company to give LA another defeat in here tonight and make LA try to win the championship at home. Suns bench plays well at home and their big men will step up in this one. Play 1 Unit on the Suns
Steven Budin
25 Dime Suns 1st Half
Super Sports Group
9* Baltimore/Toronto Over 9
8* Cleveland/NY Over 9.5
7* St Louis +120
7* Minny -1.5 +155
9* Oakland +120
8* Arizona +140
King Creole
3* Orioles / Blue Under 9
We'll be riding the BEST Under in all of Major League Baseball on Saturday afternoon. JIM WOLF gets the call behind the dish in the Skydome. He comes in with a 1-8 O/U record on the year... but he's actually gone a PERFECT 0-8 O/U in his last 8 games! When we play an Umpire 'UNDER"... we also look for a Man in Blue that has a very HIGH strikeout to walk ratio. A Strikeout advances ZERO men who might be on base. A Walk adds FREE baserunners to the equation.... increases the chances of more total runs being scored. Wolf fits the bill. His K/BB ratio on the year is a very high 3.1 to 1. That's an average of 16 'punch outs' per game.... and only 5.1 'free passes. His strike percentage of 64.3% on the season is also #1 in the League.
Average total runs scored in Wolf's games behind the dish is only 5.2. That's only 5 runs per game. I also researched Wolf's recent tendencies in INDOOR stadiums. His record in Domes is 0-4 O/U in the last 3 seasons... with only 4.3 average total runs per game. He's also had very strong tendencies in American League games, going 0-5 O/U in the Junior Circuit this season.... 6-16-1 O/U in the last 2 years... and 11-23-2 O/U in the last 3 years.
Chris Tillman gets the call up from AAA to make the start for the Orioles. He's off a great month in Minor League action... going 4-1 with an ERA of only 2.32. He even pitched a Minor League NO-HITTER in late April. The 22-year-old Tillman had been dominant at Triple-A as of late, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.32 ERA in five starts this month. In that stretch he recorded 26 strikeouts against seven walks. On Monday he became the first Orioles Minor Leaguer this season to hit the five-win mark, tossing six innings of one-run baseball.
A final candidate for the fifth-starter spot this spring, Tillman was sent to Triple-A in and was instructed by the organization to work on fastball command and continue developing his cutter. He tossed a complete-game no-hitter on April 28 at and is considered -- along with Jake Arrieta -- to be one of the team's top pitching prospects.
Brett Cecil has turned things around as of late for the host Blue Jays. He comes in 2 wins in his last 2 starts, (also 0-2 O/U) with an ERA of only 1.31. He's of his BEST start of the year as he went 7+ SHUTOUT innings on the road in Anaheim five days ago in a 6-0 Toronto win. Despite an ERA of 4.10 on the year, Cecil has looked very sharp. If you throw away his pitiful 2 inning stint against the Rangers on May 14th, his ERA is 1.80 since late April. Cecil faced the Orioles twice last season, and went a perfect 2-0. His ERA in those two starts was only 1.74 and the UNDER went a perfect 2-0.
2* LA Lakers +1.5
Yes, the HOST has gone a PERFECT 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) so far in this series. That's the exact situation I queried in the Playbook NBA post-season database. And it does NOT look good for the home team on Saturday... if previous Systems hold their form.
0-5-1 ATS since 1997: All PLAYOFF Game Six home teams (Suns)... when the HOST has gone a perfect 5-0 SU thus far in the series... when the OU line is 190 > points.
The following Systems ALL pertain to Playoff GAME SIXES:
0-5 ATS last 5 years: All PLAYOFF Game Six home teams playing off a SU loss of 3 or less points (Suns).
1-5 ATS last 8 years: All Playoff ROUND 3 / GAME 6 ('3.6') home teams (Suns) versus a division opponent (LAKERS).
7-0 ATS last 7 years: All PLAYOFF Game Six road teams (with a line if 5 < points) playing off an UNDER result... and back-to-back OVERS in their last 3 games (LAKERS).
5-1 ATS last 9 years: All PLAYOFF Game Six #1 SEED teams (LAKERS)... versus a #3 SEED opponent (Suns).
Let's run a query for the LOW pointspread in the game (Phoenix favored by =1 to -1.).... and the HIGH Over / Under line (215 or higher).
5-1 ATS since 2000: All PLAYOFF home favs of -4 points... in Rounds TWO or THREE.
I also did another check on the DIVISION aspect of Saturday's game.... combined with the low spread.
1-10 ATS since 1997: All PLAYOFF Round TWO or THREE home teams with a 'tight' line of 2 or less points (Suns)... versus a fellow DIVISION opponent (LAKERS). When the OU line in these games is 218 < points, the results are a PERFECT 0-9 ATS for the home team.
8-1 ATS: All Playoff road underdogs of 6 < points (LAKERS)... off a close SU win of 2 < points... and back-to-back ATS losses.
Fox Sheets
Super Situations
PHI at FLA
Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
51-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.2% | 29.9 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 1.4 units )
SEA at LAA
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL, where team's hitters draw 3 walks or less/game on the season
54-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.5% | 27.9 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.2 units )
Situational Power Trends
TEX at MIN
TEXAS is 39-23 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in Road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (5.9) , OPPONENT (5.0)
Ben Burns
10* Lakers
10* Royals/Red Sox Under
8* Brewers
7* Cubs
6* Blackhawks
JOYCE STERLING
10* LA Lakers +1.5
They led Game 5 by as many as 18 points, but were barely able to stave off a furious Suns rally. But, the fact that they were able to win that game on Ron Artest’s put-back tells a lot about this team’s character.
When it comes to winning series’, the Lakers haven’t lacked killer instinct. They’re a perfect two-for-two when attempting to finish off an opponent in these playoffs and 8-1 in that position dating back to the start of the 2008 playoffs.
It’s also worth noting that each of their last four series-clinching victories have come on the road, including both this postseason.
Al DeMarco
5 Dime Suns