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4* Jazz
4* Brewers
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CODE RED NBA PLAYOFF LATE STEAM WINNER
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LATE STEAM NBA PLAYOFF TOTALS PLAY OF THE YEAR
LA LAKERS and UTAH UNDER 202.5
Dwayne Bryant
Tigers
Lakers / Jazz Under 202.5
These two had played to 7 straight UNDERS leading up to the start of this series. With totals of 198.5, both games at the Staples Center went Over. Now the series heads to Salt Lake City with an opening total of 203.5. That was quickly bet down to as low as 202 at some shops. These two squared off in Utah twice during the regular season and both games had a posted total in the 202.5 - 203 range. Both games went UNDER with final scores totaling 196 and 177. And it's not like they shot bad, posting 49% shooting and 45.4% shooting, respectively.
A similar situation occured in last year's playoffs. The Lakers faced the Jazz and took the first two games at home. The series shifted to Utah with the Jazz down 2-0 and a total of 213.5 was posted for Game 3. Utah, desperately in need of a win, clamped down on defense and held the Lakers to 36.8% shooting in an 88-86 victory (174 total points, 39.5 points UNDER the posted total). I don't know if Utah can hold LA to 37% shooting again (LA shot a combined 46.5% in the two meetings in Utah this season, but both games still stayed UNDER tonight's number), but I do expect an emphasis on defense tonight.
UNDER Trends: 4-0 in the Lakers' last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest; 12-4 in the Lakers' last 16 games as a road underdog; 11-4 in the Jazz's last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record; 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Utah; 7-2 in the last 9 meetings overall.
Bottom line: I'm a big believer in that (recent) history is a great indicator of future results. Teams fall into patterns in certain situations and I love when teams fall into distinct patterns when they play each other. Such is the case tonight. Grab the UNDER in this Lakers-Jazz matchup tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
10* Blue Jays / White Sox Under
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Brett Cecil gets the nod from the Jays; he's coming off his best start of the year in which he took a perfect game into the seventh.
He's allowed just two runs and six hits in his last 14 innings and has 21 K's.
He's 1-0 against the White Sox in his career; he allowed three runs over six innings.
In the other dugout: Jake Peavy€ is coming off his best start of the year as well; he picked up his first win of the season as he threw seven shut out innings; he struck out nine and lowered his ERA to 6.31.
"I got what I was looking for," Peavy said. "This what I came here to do and it was nice to go out there and do what I know I'm capable of and now I just got to maintain this and keep putting together quality starts. Just have the season start from May on."
Bottom line: Toronto opened this series with a 2-0 win Thursday and improved to 5-0 on its 10-game trip with a 7-4, 12-inning victory Friday.
I believe Peavy is going to build off his latest performance and return to form and look for Cecil to also pitch deep into this game.
Expect a low-scoring affair in this one; 10* play on the UNDER!
8* Brewers / DBacks Under 10
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
Randy Wolf has been up and down so far this season and is 2-2 but with a decent 3.86 ERA.
Wolf is 8-3 all time against the Diamondbacks with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts.
Keep in mind as well that Wolf was 7-4 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last season.
In the other dugout: Cesar Valdez made his major-league debut on Monday in Houston; he allowed one run on five hits in five innings; walked three and struck out two and earned the victory.
In four starts at Triple-A this year he posted a 3.80 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP with 25 K's in 23 2/3's innings.
Bottom line: Wolf is 6-0 with a 3.07 ERA in his last six starts at Chase Field for his longest winning streak in any ballpark.
This number is a bit high; look for the starters to throw deep into this one; 8* play on the UNDER!
8* Angels / Mariners Over 7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Joe Saunders gave up seven runs on Monday over four innings against the Red Sox.
He allowed nine hits and two homers in a horrible 17-8 loss.
He walked four and struck out three; he is 1-5 with a 7.04 ERA on the year.
In the other dugout: Doug Fister gets the nod for the Mariners; he's been very good so far this year and has a 2-1 record with a 1.29 ERA.
However I expect a letdown today against a desperate Angels team.
Bottom line: LA is coming off an 8-0 win over the M's in Friday's se€ries opener which was their first win in May.
Seattle is also in the middle of a skid having lost seven straight; Seattle is batting .169 and has been outscored 40-9 during its longest slide dropping 12 straight from Sept. 11-22, 2008.
Both teams are desperate to score runs and turn things around offensively; although Fister has pitched well to this point, Saunders has really struggled with his control and I believe that will ultimately be the difference here; 8* play on the OVER!
OC DOOLEY
3 Units Seattle Mariners -135
Wayne Root
no limit GOM - sea mariners
Billionaire - Jazz -4'