Ben Burns
10* TOP Eastern Conf Total
Orlando/Charlotte Under 188
King Creole
2* Orlando
2* Phx
1* Phx Over
James Patrick Sports
5* Orlando
3* Phoenix
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BOBCATS
10 Dime: SPURS
Bobcats
This line is seriously inflated. If you look at the Bobcats-Magic regular-season series, you’ll see Orlando won the first meeting in a rout (93-81 as a four-point road favorite), but after that, here were the final scores:
Magic 97-91 at home, Magic 106-95 in overtime on the road, Bobcats 96-89 on the road. Obviously, that overtime contest could’ve gone either way, and the final score was kind of a fluke.
Orlando is a team that relies heavily on perimeter shooting, and the Bobcats finished the regular season with the second-best three-point defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to convert just 33.8 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc. And when you look at the Magic’s point totals in recent meetings, it’s obvious that Charlotte gives them trouble. Take away two overtime games, and the Magic have scored 89, 97, 93, 98, 92, 90 and 93 in the last seven meetings.
Clearly, the Magic have the advantage of playoff experience – they were in the NBA Finals last year, while Charlotte is back in the postseason for the first time since the Hornets played in Charlotte. However, the Bobcats finished the season strong, winning 16 of their last 22 meaningful games, including nine of the last 12 (including the seven-point upset at Orlando). The Bobcats also ended the season on ATS upswings of 6-2-1 against winning teams, 6-0-1 against Southeast Division squads, 4-0 on Sunday and an impressive 34-16-1 as a big underdog (5 to 10½ points).
Finally, Orlando is not immune to struggling out of the gate in the postseason. Last year, long before they got to the Finals against the Lakers, the Magic opened the playoffs with a 100-98 home loss to the pedestrian 76ers as a 9½-point home favorite. They also lost Game 3 in Philly and failed to cover in their first four playoff contests (all against the Sixers, who took the series to six games). Trust me, this Bobcats squad – guided by veteran coach Larry Brown – is WAY better than last year’s 76ers.
Take the points and look for a tight contest throughout.
Spurs
I don’t hesitate for a second to back the Spurs once again at Dallas, despite losing with the exact same play in Wednesday’s regular-season finale (when the Mavericks beat San Antonio 96-89 as a five-point home favorite). The reason I’m not hesitating is I still don’t trust Dallas as a home favorite – who the hell would? This team started the season with a 102-91 home loss to the crappy Wizards as an eight-point home chalk and ended the year in a 7-28-1 ATS slump at home (going 6-27-1 ATS as a home favorite)
Meanwhile, even with Wednesday’s loss in Dallas, the Spurs ended the regular season on an 18-8 SU and ATS run, going 8-4 SU and ATS in the last 12. They also proved their road toughness down the stretch, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 road games.
True, Dallas also ended the season strong, winning eight of 10 (SU and ATS) including a five-game season-ending SU and ATS winning streak. Now here comes the “yeah, but” – yeah, but the Mavericks have had just one winning streak longer than five games since 2007-08 (that was a 13-game run from mid-February to mid-March). Also you have to go back to the start of the 2006 playoffs for the last time the Mavericks cashed in six consecutive games – we’re talking a total of 366 regular-season and postseason games with a six-game ATS run!
Don’t believe the nonsense that the Spurs are over the hill, guys. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are still as good a trio of teammates as there is in the NBA, and they’re going to give the Mavericks a very, very tough series – starting tonight in Game 1. Grab the points with San Antonio, which is 5-1 ATS in its last six in the role of short underdog (less than five points) and 6-1 ATS in its last seven when coming off a defeat.
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Yankees -165
1 Unit Tampa Bay +130
1 Unit Orlando -10
ATS Lock Club
5 Units Phoenix -8
4 Units Dallas -4.5
Billy Coleman
4* Char/Orl Under 187.5
4* SF/LAD Under 8.5
3* Clev -120
3* Cinn -120
3* Phx/Det Under 5
JIMMY BOYD
5* LAKERS
3* TRAIL BLAZERS
3* ST LOUIS CARDINALS
KELSO
25 Units Spurs +4.5
5 Units Blazers +8.5
5 Units Bobcats +9.5
5 Units Thunder +7.5
MTi Sports
4'* Hou +175
4* Col/Atl Under 9
4* Fla +190
4* Col +135
4* SF +153
4* NYM/Stl Under 8
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Spurs
3 Units Suns
Bob Balfe
Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -140
Rick Romero has pitched outstanding in his first two starts and I expect the same today at home against an Angels team that appears on the decline. Santana has not pitched well this year and should get knocked around by the Blue Jays enough to fail to secure the road win today. The Blue Jays are going to be the dark horse of the league this year. Take Toronto.
Stan Lisowski
3* San Francisco +155
The Giants are 8-3 this season and undefeated in game 3 of a series. They have won both of starter Zito’s outings this year. On the mound for LA is Kershaw, who has struggled with his control this season, walking 5 and 6 batters in his 2 starts. The Dodger bullpen is quite taxed already, pitching a lot in this past week.
Rocketman
3* Orlando -9.5
Orlando is 38-15 ATS last 3 years after allowing 105 points or more. Orlando is 34-7 SU at home this year where they are averaging 105.4 points per game. Orlando has won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games overall. Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bobcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Bobcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Magic are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Magic are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. Magic are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Magic are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. Magic are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games. Magic are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast. Magic are 69-33-2 ATS in their last 104 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bobcats are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Orlando. We'll play Orlando for 3 units today!
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Units Lakers -7.5
3 Units Bobcats +10