BIG AL
3* Nuggets +2
3* Angels +121
3* A's -114
Don Wallace Sports
10* Dallas +2.5
10* Denver +2
Jeff Benton
40 Dime: MAVERICKS
10 Dime: CELTICS
Mavericks
After nailing a 15 Dime winner on the Spurs in Game 2 of this series, I intentionally laid off Game 3 because I wanted to see how that one played out. Because barring injury or something truly bizarre, I knew I was going to employ the “zigzag” theory tonight for Game 4 (the same “zigzag” theory I used in Game 2).
The simple fact is, I see this series going seven games. These teams, being instate division rivals, know each other extremely well, and they’re very evenly matched (as their records clearly indicate, with Dallas just four games better than San Antonio). If you go back to the start of last season, the Spurs and Mavericks have now hooked up 16 times (including five first-round playoff contests last year, a series won by Dallas). You meet 16 times in an 18-month span, and there truly are no surprises when these teams take the court. (And, in fact, in the seven meetings this season, there has been just one game decided by double digits – the Spurs’ Game 2 win in Dallas).
As for this particular matchup tonight, I like the Mavs because there were some things that transpired in Game 3 that I don’t expect to happen in Game 3. For instance, Dallas got a grand total of 16 points, 16 rebounds and six assists from four starters (Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd and Erick Dampier, with Marion and Butler basically benched in the second half). I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to predict another putrid performance by that quartet tonight.
Also, Dallas All-Star Dirk Nowitzki had a monster 35-point effort on Friday, but it could’ve been even better had he not been in foul trouble (he finished with five fouls). If Nowitzki stays out of foul trouble tonight – and history indicates he will, since it’s an unwritten rule that the refs in the playoffs don’t put a superstar in foul trouble in back-to-back games).
Speaking of fouls, the Spurs got 26 free-throw attempts and were whistled for just 16 fouls in Game 3, while the Mavs got to the foul line only 15 times and amassed 25 fouls. I don’t see that happening again tonight.
Finally, prior to San Antonio’s Game 2 victory in Dallas, the Mavs had won and covered seven of eight meetings against the Spurs. And you have to go back to the 2007-08 season for the last time the Spurs won three in a row in this rivalry. San Antonio last covered in three straight in the 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons.
Just in case this ends up being another tight one, we’ll grab the points. But I highly doubt we’ll need them, as I see Dallas scoring the outright seven-point win.
Celtics
So long, Miami!
I have to admit, I NEVER saw this coming. In fact, of all the first-round playoff matchups, I actually thought the Heat had the best chance of any of the eight underdogs to pull off the upset. Boy, was that presumption way off base. Fact of the matter is, the Heat just cannot handle Boston’s style – that’s become VERY evident not only in this series but over the last several years, as the Celtics have won the last eight meetings in a row and 14 of the last 15. And when you notice that Boston is on an 11-4 ATS roll in this rivalry (almost exclusively as a favorite), you realize just how big of a mismatch this is.
Now, because the Heat have Dwyane Wade – a superstar who would NEVER concede defeat – it’s possible that he could will this team to a victory today all by himself. But I’d put the odds of that happening at about 15 percent. The fact is, Wade can’t do it alone – he needs SOME help from his supporting cast, and I just don’t trust that supporting cast to show up today, not with the brutal way Game 3 ended (with the score tied at 98 and Boston holding for the final shot, Paul Pierce pulled up and drained a 19-footer at the buzzer – a shot he NEVER should’ve been allowed to take because Miami had a foul to give and didn’t use it).
It’s difficult for a team in the regular season to recover from such a gut-wrenching defeat. When that happens in the playoffs, at home, when you’re already down 0-2 in the series, well, I believe the Heat have mentally checked out (and we’ll know within the first six minutes of this game if I’m right).
Finally, you KNOW that the Celtics want to put the hammer down immediately today. The last thing they want is to extend this series when they could finish it off and rest their tired and aging legs (and prepare for what’s going to be a grueling second-round matchup against the Magic). So while most teams in Boston’s situation would be primed for a letdown, I don’t think Pierce, K.G. and Ray Allen will allow that to happen.
Despite Wade’s best efforts – and he if went for 50 today, I wouldn’t be shocked – this thing is over. Celtics roll by at least eight points.
Billy Coleman
4* Clev/Chi Over 194
3* Dal +2.5
3* Utah -2
4* Stl ev
3* Clev/Oak Under 8.5
3* Phx/Det Under 5
Rocketman
5* Cubs +110
3* SA Spurs -2.5
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Cleveland Cavs -5.5
1 Unit San Fran -110
1 Unit White Sox -150
Priority Sports Info
Houston Astros -185
Craig Davis
50* Jazz
20* Mavs
Ben Burns
10* Cavs/Bulls Under 194
9* Heat/Celtics Under 185
10* White Sox
8* Angels +1.5
10* Canucks/Kings Under
CRAIG DAVIS
50 DIME Utah Jazz
20 DIME Dallas Mavs
WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire - Denver Nuggets +2
MTi Sports
Boston -150
Tor/TB Under 9
Milwaukee -115
NYY/LAA Under 10
Clev/Oak Under 8.5
Oakland -110
LAD/Wash Under9.5
Det/Tex Under 9.5
Chip Chirimbes
Nuggets at Jazz
Pick: Nuggets +2
The Utah Jazz have for years been the most dominate home team in the NBA and they already established that mantra in Game Three as they took out the Nuggets in an easy win. Conflicting trends surround this match-up as Utah is 24-9-2 against the points in their last 35 home games and Denver is 1-7-1 in their last nine road games but, Denver is also 7-2-2 in their last 11 meetings with Utah. Game Four will even the series. Take NUGGETS!
MR EAST
MLB SUNDAY 22-4 BLAST
CLEVELAND INDIANS @ OAKLAND A's
3 UNITS: OAKLAND A's -1.5 +170
The Cleveland Indians will have problems with Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a lefthander, and the Indians have struggled to a 3-11 mark in their last 14 when facing a lefthander. They have also had trouble finding the win column behind Masterson, as they are a woeful 1-9 in his last 10 starts. Top that off with one of the worst road records in baseball, the Indians are just 4-22 in their last 26 on the road. A's taking it to road teams with a losing record, turning in a 20-8 mark over their last 28 games. Indians just 8-23 in their last 31 in Oakland, and have dropped 6 of the last 7. Oakland gets this one on the runline
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
DIAMOND CONSENSUS BASEBALL WINNER
Minnesota w/Slowey -135