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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Sunday, February 13,2011

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Jeff Benton

20 Dime Illinois -2½

Pretty easy to explain this one. While neither team is playing great basketball right now – Purdue has split its last eight games; Illinois, which fell out of the Top 25 this week, has dropaed five of eight – the difference is the Illini are nearly flawless at home (11-1) and the Boilermakers’ last four losses have come in their last four road games.

Addressing the latter point first: After winning their first four on the highway, the Boilermakers have suffered consecutive losses at Minnesota, West Virginia, Ohio State and Wisconsin. They failed to cover in all four games while averaging just 63.5 points per contest.

As for Illinois, yes, it is just 3-5 in its last eight games. But three of those losses were by a total of six points in conference road games at Penn State, Indiana and Northwestern, while another was a five-point home loss to top-ranked and unbeaten Ohio State (the only visitor to win at Assembly Hall all year). In their other four Big Ten home games, the Illini have come away victorious against Wisconsin (69-61 as a 2½-point favorite), Northwestern (88-63 as an eight-point chalk), Michigan State (71-62 as a four-point favorite) and Penn State (68-51 as an eight-point chalk).

And don’t forget, Illinois’ 11-1 home record also includes a 79-67 non-conference rout of North Carolina back on the final day of November. And even if you throw in the 73-68 loss to Ohio State, Illinois is outscoring visitors by 16 ppg (77-61) while shooting 51.4 percent overall and 41.6 percent from three-point land and holding opponents to 37.2 percent/28.3 percent.

One final point: This is a triple-revenge situation for Illinois, having lost the last three meetings in this rivalry (1-2 ATS). The good news for the Illini? The last time they hosted the Boilermakers at Assembly Hall, they rolled to a 66-48 win as a scant 2½-point favorite.

Bottom line: This pointspread is ridiculously cheap, especially since the Illini (9-4 ATS last 13 Big Ten games) are coming off Thursday’s confidence-building 71-62 win at Minnesota (as a two-point road underdog). Throw in the fact the home team is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in Purdue’s last nine games and 15-3 in Illinois’ 18 non-neutral-site games this season, and this one’s a no-brainer.

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 8:28 am
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DON WALLACE SPORTS

3* BOSTON +2.5
3* ORLANDO -1
3* CLIPPERS -1.5
3* MEMPHIS -3
3* CLEVELAND -2
3* SACRAMENTO +9.5

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 8:53 am
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Jimmy Boyd

3* Warriors +1

5* Duquesne -4.5

3* Arizona St +5.5

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:01 am
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ATS Insider

George Washington +5

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:01 am
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Marc Lawrence

Miami Fla +10

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:01 am
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Steve Budin

25 Dime Cavaliers

Anthony Redd

75 Dime Trailbrazers

Andy Fanelli

30 Dime Heat
15 Dime Magic
15 Dime Arizona

Craig Davis

50 Dime Duquesne

Brett Atkins

30 Dime Magic

Chuck O'Brien

30 Dime Lakers

10 Dime Lakers / Magic Under

Derek Mancini

20 Dime Virginia Tech

Trace Adams

1000♦ Cincinnati

500♦ Celtics

Jay McNeil

80 Dime Xavier

Matt Rivers

150,000♦ Celtics

75,000♦ Purdue

Joel Tyson

20 Dime Marquette

10 Dime Lakers

2 Minute Warning

10 Dime Xavier

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:01 am
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Tony Karpinski

10* LA Lakers

5* Northwestern

5* Arizona St

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:23 am
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Dr Bob

3* NC State -5

NC State has struggled some in conference play, going just 2-7 straight up and 1-7-1 ATS but the Wolfpack have generally beaten up on bad teams this season, including a 90-69 home win over Wake Forest (their only conference spread win). NC State enters this game off 4 consecutive losses to good teams and the Wolfpack played two of those games without point guard Ryan Harrow while top defensive player and #2 scorer C.J. Leslie sat out the last game for disciplinary reasons (he’s expected to play today). My ratings favor NC State by 6 points with everyone playing and the Wolfpack apply to a very good 38-4 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation. The favorite is 16-2-1 ATS in NC State’s games this season and I see that trend continuing. I’ll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 or less and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.

College Opinion

Marquette +6

Marquette is once again playing better in conference play than they did early in the season and the Golden Eagles are now 25-7 ATS in conference games under coach Buzz Williams when not favored by more than 4 points (17-3 ATS against a team with a win percentage of less than .820), including 7-1 ATS this season. Georgetown, meanwhile, is 8-25 ATS in conference home games the last 4 seasons, including 1-5 ATS this season. My ratings favor Georgetown by only 5 points and I’ll lean with Marquette plus the points based on the team trends. I’d take Marquette in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:26 am
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EZWinners

3* Boston
3* LA Lakers
2* Washington

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:35 am
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Chris Jordan

200* Lakers +1.5

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:37 am
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Tim Trushel

Boston

Orlando

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:45 am
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Brandon Lang

LA Lakers +1

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:46 am
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anyone seen bob valentino 40 dime

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:52 am
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Al DeMarco

10 Dime Cavaliers

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:54 am
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Teddy June

10* Illinois -3

10* Duquesne 1st Half -3

 
Posted : February 13, 2011 10:55 am
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