DAVID MALINSKY
4* DENVER/BOSTON Under
No one plays better tactical defense than the Celtics. They are #1 by a pretty wide margin right now on our best set of ratings, allowing nearly one full point less per 100 possessions than any other team. Yet they went into the All Star break feeling that they were under-performing on that end of the court. It has led to some tactical changes, and in allowing only 84.8 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting in three games since the All Star break, the pieces are fitting together seamlessly again. So on a day in which they want to go out of their way to slow the tempo as well, that defensive resurgence helps to bring us great value for this one.Let’s let the Celtics set the tone themselves. First, from Doc Rivers - “We fought all first half trying to guard the ball. Well, we don’t do that very well and that’s been proven through the year. So, the next step, if you don’t guard the ball well, the next guy has to be there every time a guy’s beat.’’ On to Rajon Rondo - “I think we’re a better help team now. We’re conscious of it. Doc has been drilling it night in, night out, telling us we have to be a better help team. And on the ball defensively, we just have to take a stand.’’ And Kevin Garnett - “The key to us has been the communication. It hasn’t been this constant. It hasn’t been this loud … I can definitely say it’s been different from January, December, November.’’Now on to today’s matchup. Neither team shows up as the pinnacle of freshness, with Boston in the fourth road game in six days since the All Star break, and Denver only getting one day to turn around after that draining trip through Cleveland and Washington, games in which the starters had to toil a combined 365 minutes. That leaves the Nuggets hard pressed to force their preferred pace, which allows the Celtics to get this into a half-court tempo from the start. The game then becomes a grinder of an affair that looks much different from the flow that the oddsmakers have projected, with easy scoring opportunities not easy to come by
4* VILLANOVA over PITTSBURGH
Once again Jamie Dixon and Pittsburgh have been awfully good for our
pockets in a Big East road underdog role this season ? the grit that
they play with in that role has now taken the count to 21-10 ATS in
the Dixon years. But now the setting shifts, and so does our call. A
team that is accustomed to taking what the opponents give them,
capitalizing on mistakes and using their physical and mental
toughness to grind out victories, now faces their worst matchup of
the season.
The Panthers have good talent, not great talent. As such, they need
to be able to find weaknesses that can be exploited. Villanova brings
none. The Wildcats are athletic, experienced, deep and talented,
while also bringing a special balance to the table. They are shooting
49.0 percent from the field in Big East play, a special number
against that level of competition; winning the battle of the boards
by +6.3 in league play; and also knocking down 75.4 percent of their
free throws. And they do not let up, with 10 players going at least
11 minutes per game, and no one needing to go 30. It starts with
Scottie Reynolds running the show, and in the savvy of Jay Wright on
the sidelines, and Wright on the court, a remarkable achievement can
be earned today ? a victory would give them a win on every
opposing Big East court in the Reynolds career. The fact that they
have not won here yet is not an indictment; there has only been on
trip to Pittsburgh in those 3+ seasons, but having handled the
Panthers by 10 at home LY, and then winning that NCAA tournament
thriller, they know that they can beat this opponent.
The biggest Pittsburgh strength is a physical half-court defense that
can frustrate many opponents into taking bad shots. The Panthers do
no extend, forcing only 129 turnovers in 13 Big East games, but
rather rely on protecting the basket. But if you do not force
turnovers, Villanova is not going to make many through that savvy
ball-handling. That makes this an entirely different matchup for
Dixon and his team, and now it is the struggles that their own
offense can have against pressing defenses that causes additional
game flow issues.
4* SAINT LOUIS over MASSACHUSETTS
Earlier this week we cashed a 6* ticket with Rick Majerus and his
Billikens in a game in which they absolutely should not have been
home underdogs vs. Rhode Island. We receive that outstanding value
because the marketplace just does not ?get it? in terms of how well
Saint Louis is playing ? when you are grinding away with outstanding
fundamentals and defense, it just does not bring a lot of sex appeal.
And that is why we are offered excellent value again, as a team that
is 8-3 and fighting for the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown goes up
against a struggling and inexperienced side that just does not match
up well. Count us in again.
Through 11 conference games, only once has Saint Louis being trailing
on the scoreboard at the end of regulation play, with two of those
losses coming on the road in Overtime. It is a tribute to the
tenacious defense that the Billikens are playing, allowing just 40.1
percent shooting from the field and 25.3 from long range in A10 play,
and their solid fundamentals show in that there have only been 118
assists allowed in 470 floor minutes (there have been a total of six
O.T. periods), compared to 159 turnovers. Kwamain Mitchell is
becoming a prime go-to scorer down the stretch of close games, and
with Cody Ellis becoming a reliable #2 the confidence is there to
make things happen when needed most.
Massachusetts brings no such confidence. The Minutemen will be
starting three FR and a SO this afternoon, and that makes for most
awkward tactical matchups for a team that lacks the patience and
experience to break down this class of defense. What success they
have had has come from athleticism (they lead the A10 in offensive
rebounds), and not polish, and the rotation is further muddle by the
injury to David Gibbs, and the suspension of Javorn Fornell for this
game. They do not run their offense well (40.4 percent), and do not
pressure the ball defensively (A10 opponents are +43 in assists to
TO?s), which plays right into the hands of the Billikens here. Look
for Saint Louis to be able to force that slow and methodical pace in
this one, and to grind away an impatient opponent that will be
frustrated by those tactics.
4* MICHIGAN STATE/OHIO STATE Over
Michigan State and Ohio State are near the top of the Big 10, and
like others fighting it out for the top spot they both play
outstanding defense. But there is a difference. These two are quicker
than the rest, prefer to run more, and also shoot the ball better. It
just does not get a chance to show much when games turn into
wrestling matches. But it can show now that the court opens up here
as they go head-to-head.
The scoring averages of both of these teams are not in the right
place because of the way that Big 10 games flow ? competitors at the
top like Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois play with passion on defense
and methodically on offense, while the bottom feeders like Penn State
and Iowa go out of their way to slow things down. So when do you get
a chance to run? Check the non-conference competition. Ohio State has
played four games outside of the league vs. class opponents, North
Carolina, California, Florida State, Butler and West Virginia, and
those five games played Over at a 4-1 clip. Michigan State stepped
out against North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Gonzaga, and those
four games played 3-1 to the Over.
By having this game pushed back to Sunday, both teams come in fresh,
with the Buckeyes off since Wednesday and the Spartans off since
Tuesday. That means the kind of energy to attack aggressively, and
also the fresh legs to make jump shots. That helps this one to easily
sail past the low Total that has been set, a Total based more on how
the Big 10 as a whole plays than how these two will get after each
other.
Teddy Covers
Arizona St.
Cavaliers
Grizzles
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona State at Arizona
Bet: Arizona State -2
We have a same-season revenge situation and a state rivalry game all rolled into one today in Tucson. Four weeks ago, Arizona State was hosting the Wildcats as 11-point favorites. Arizona dominated the heavily favored Sun Devils in the second half and rolled to a huge 19-point upset win. I'd say that qualifies as an embarrassing loss for the Sun Devils and having that humiliation come at the hands of their state rival only adds salt to the wound. Think ASU will bring a ton of motivation, intensity, and determination today? I sure do.
Looking at that meeting last month, Arizona outshot ASU 51% to 30% from the floor. Not only is that well above the Wildcats' season average of 43.7%, but it's also WAY below ASU's season average of 45.6%. The other thing that stands out to me is the free throw shooting from that game. ASU shot just 59% from the charity stripe (missed 12 of 29 attempts), which is WAY below their season average of 72%. Arizona shot 86% from the free throw line (missed only 4 of 28 attempts), which is well above their season average of 74%.
I expect a return to the norm for both teams in regards to shooting percentages and free throw percentages. ASU had won five straight in this series before that shocking home blowout loss last month. I expect the Sun Devils to return the favor today against their bitter rival and embarrass the Wildcats in front of their home fans. Take Arizona State.
Teddy June
10* Cincy
Fantasy Sports Gametime
1000* Play Orlando (-2) over Cleveland
Orlando has won and covered the spread in 4 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 195 and 199.5 points and they have also won 21 of the last 27 home games as a favorite. Orlando has won 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a Sunday and they are averaging over 107 points a game on offense over the last 5 games.
50* Play Villanova (-2) over Pittsburgh
Villanova has won 9 consecutive games when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points and they have also won 9 of the last 10 games when playing their 2nd game in eight days. Villanova has won 14 of the last 15 games coming off an OVER the total and they are averaging over 85 points a game on offense this season.
Ferringo
We don't post Doc's guys anymore Ice but thanks for chipping in. 8)
Erin Rynning
Orlando -2
Portland Under 192
Executive
300% Villanova -2
300% Michigan St -3'
300% Marquette +2
Youngstown Connection
St Louis +1.5
5 Star Sports
5* GOM Portland NBA
3* Pitt +2
3* VT +13
The Duke's Sports
Orlando (-2) for 2.5 Units
Chemistry a bit altered for Cleveland as they try to fit Jamison into the lineup. He struggled bad at Charlotte - not making a single shot. Meanwhile, the Magic are coming off a blowout loss at home however, we'll look for them to regroup here and deliver after all, with the exception of catching Orlando unrested on November 11th, the Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS at Orlando. And surely Dwight Howard wants to break out from under Shaq's shadow and establish himself as a legitimate great center in the NBA. He'll have to play hard and let his actions establish respect from his nemesis - Shaq. The Cavaliers,which are on a 1-4 ATS slide, should continue in their rough stretch here they're 1-5 ATS after allowing 100+. Orlando the call.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Houston / New Orleans Under 201
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under"
Kevin Martin's arrival didn’t immediately help the struggling Rockets who have fallen out of playoff position in the Western Conference.
Martin, who was averaging 19.8 points for Sacramento, figures to help a Houston offense that has shot 42.9 percent from the field during a 4-8 stretch. The veteran guard didn’t help much in his Rockets debut, shooting 3 of 16 on Saturday night in a 125-115 home loss to Indiana.
While Martin’s dismal shooting didn’t help, defense was the bigger issue for the Rockets, who allowed the Pacers to score 71 second-half points and erase an 11-point halftime deficit; I expect a concerted effort on the defensive end this evening though.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in 13 of Houston's last 19 on the road overall.
On the other side of the court: New Orleans (29-26) beat Indiana 107-101 on Friday night thanks in part to the first career triple-double from rookie point guard Darren Collinson.
Filling in for injured star Chris Paul, Collison had 18 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. He’s averaging 19.7 points and 9.8 assists in nine games since entering the starting lineup Jan. 30.
The Hornets will try to win two in a row for the first time since victories at Portland and Golden State on Jan. 25 and 27. They’ve already beaten the Rockets once at home, snapping a three-game losing streak to Houston with a 99-95 win Jan. 2.
It's important to note that the total has gone "under" the number in six of New Orleans's last seven when playing against Houston.
Bottom line: Houston has also seen the total go "under" the number in five of six games vs. good offensive teams that score 99 plus points per contest (in the second half of the season); when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
10* Under
Lenny Del Genio
Utah -1
The Jazz continue to roll coming out of the All Star Break with three consecutive road wins over conference opponents and look to complete a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS road trip tonight in Portland. Looking back further, Utah has simply been on fire for some time now, losing just one game over the last 31 days against 12 victories. Going back even further, they are 17-3 straight up their last 20 games and have been excellent at the betting window during that stretch (15-2-3 ATS). Incredibly, the only loss over the last 13 games came to a Kobe-less, Bynum-less Lakers team at home the game before the Break. Although their offensive surge has curtailed a bit, the team is now picking things up on the defensive end where they've held their last five opponents under 100 points, a strong statement in the tough Western Conference. Meanwhile, division rival Portland seems to be heading the other way. Decimated by injuries all season long, the Blazers are hanging on to the eighth and final playoff spot in the conference, but have lost seven of 12, including a 96-76 home loss to Boston Friday night. It was their worst offensive performance of the year, but also marked the second time in the last four games where they scored under 80 points. The Rose Garden used to present a tremendous home court advantage, but Portland has lost three of its last four here, all by double digits to likely playoff teams. The only win during that stretch came against the Clippers. The Jazz won here on January 26th, 106-95, easily covering the 2.5-point number. Winners of six straight on the road, they now look to sweep Portland for the first time in four seasons. Considering a 9-1 pointspread mark when favored by or getting less than three points this season, we like their chances. Utah is our 20* Northwest Division Game of the Month.
Tony George
Utah -2
Portland has been beaten badly by the Jazz the last 2 times, and Utah is one of the hottest road teams on the planet are the Jazz. Not sold either on Portland's team right now off a 20 point beat down against Boston here and still not at 100%. Like Utah's offense to outpace the Blazers tonight. Utah 15-5 ATS their last 20 road games. Play 1 Unit on The Jazz.
Rocketman
Orlando -2
Cleveland is 2-5 SU and 1-5 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. Orlando is 21-6 SU at home this year. Cleveland has lost a couple in a row heading into today's game. Orlando is 19-8 SU at home vs Cleveland since 1996 and 6-2 SU and ATS at home vs Cleveland last 3 years. Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central. Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Magic are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Cavaliers are 4-15 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Orlando. We'll play Orlando for 3 units!