DAVID MALINSKY
4* NFC/AFC Under
Any time that the oddsmakers have to deal with a new and unique situation it can open the door for a mistake to be made, and that is the case here. With the game being moved up to a week ahead of the Super Bowl it changes the circumstances by much more than the marketplace is appreciating based on this line, and we have excellent value to step in.The first key is that the Super Bowl players are obviously taken out of proceedings, and that could rarely impact a Total more than this year, with eight offensive players that had been chosen for this game sitting out, including the two best QB’s in the NFL this season in Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. But that is only the beginning of the QB issues, with Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre also sitting out. It leaves the lackluster rotations of Matt Schaub, Vince Young and David Garrard for the AFC and Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo for the NFC. A genuine case could be made that the five missing QB’s were the five most effective this fall, and that Young and Garrard represent the lowest tier that has earned this honor in many years.It is not just the QB rotation that brings the issues on offense – also missing are playmakers Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker and Steven Jackson, and blockers Jake Long and Andre Gurode. And note that while the usual Pro Bowl scheduling has the players from the Super Bowl teams having only a minor impact as they come in distracted and physically worn down, that role now gets assumed by the losers of the conference championship game. There are more Vikings and Jets on these offensive rosters than on defense, and do you think that Adrian Peterson or Sidney Rice are going to bring their “A” game?We are going to see the usual loose atmosphere here, and the defenses will not bring a high level of intensity. But that suits our purposes fine – with so many key playmakers missing this Total becomes a mountain to overcome, and at the current 58.5 it basically forces eight TD’s to be score for us to have any jeopardy – seven TD’s and three FG’s will not cut it. Finding eight TD’s from these reduced rosters is not easy.
BRANDON LANG
20 DIME - WILLIAM & MARY
Love Bill and Mary's excellent adventure today.
Now this may sound simple, but if you can beat somebody in their place by 25 points, I'm confident you can come back in 3 weeks at home and hammer that team again.
You are gettin line value courtesy of Drexel's win at Northeastern but for me, you beat a team 73-48 just over 3 weeks ago, not much can change in that time span with college kids.
Nope, you beat a team that badly in their house it's a matchup problem. Fact of the matter is William and Mary have Drexel's number.
In this spot here I just love the number and the value of the hometeam and after today you will see value in them as well.
If ever there was a perfect spot ot jump on the hometeam this is it.
They just battled 2 of the league leaders in VCU and Old Dominion and after a half hearted effort at James Madison last time out, this team will be as focused as they have been all year long.
I will go to war with the hometeam and look for Drexel to go to 2-4 ATS last 6 on the road as Bill and Mary step up and hand them another beating today.
10 DIME - LA LAKERS - You give me the Lakers in a near pick'em game and I will go to war with them until Kobe retires.
You add the fact the Lakers are well rested and catching the Celtics playing their 4th game in 5 nights, and you couldn't ask for a better spot for LA to catch the Celtics in than the spot they catch them in today.
Boston has lost 2 in a row against Orlando and Atlanta and now return home to catch the Lakers who are ready to exploit this tiring Celtics bunch that has gone 6-10 SU their last 16 games and a not so money making 5-11 ATS.
The bottom line is this is a game of two teams heading in opposite directions and while one team, the defending NBA champion Lakers are surging, the other past NBA champion is running out of gas fast.
Let's face it, it was a great run for the big 3 but fact of the matter is, the Celtics made their deal with the devil and as usual, the Rasheed "The Devil" Wallace has figured out a way to bring the Celtics down.
Boston had their run and let's be perfectly honest here, it was a great run but this is an OLD Boston team.
The big 3 of Garnett, Pierce and Allen look tired to me and having to play the best team in the west when your last 5 wins have come against the Raptors twice, Heat, Nets, Clippers and Portand, let's just say I have zero confidence this Boston team can get it done today.
Last time I rolled with this Lakers bunch they pushed against the Magic at home in a game they should have covered but allowed the Orlando Magic to hit three 3's in the last 40 seconds while Shannon Brown missed 2 free throws to help put that game on the vegas number.
Today I just don't see that happening as Los Angeles takes advantage of this sluggish Boston bunch and deliver yet another solid road win.
FREE SELECTION - WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Wolves -1.5 over Knicks
NCAA Basketball
Pitt -3.5 over South Florida
Anthony Redd
50-Dime - Drexel
15-Dime - Minnesota
Insider Sports Report
5* Butler -6½
4* Ball St +11½
3* Pittsburgh -2
JIMMY BOYD
5* Big Ten GOM - Minnesota +7
3* Sunday Night Smash - So Illinois +1.5
3* Golden State / Oklahoma City Under 214
ATS LOCK CLUB
5 Units Ohio St -7
4 Units Maryland +5
3 Units Arizona +2
Triple Threat Sports
3* Ohio State (-) over Minnesota
Will start with the numbers for this matchup, as Gophers are 0-3 ATS when getting points this season, 1-7 ATS the last three years as away dogs of this price, 3-8 (1-3 in conf) ATS against winning teams this season, and finally 2-6 ATS vs teams of this defensive class this season. One key fundamental stat is that Ohio State is hitting almost 70% from the free throw line at home this season while Minnesota converting at just 62% rate from the stripe in road games this season. Finally, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, and one of those games came earlier this year as UM won by nine against OSU. However, not only did Evan Turner not play in that game, the Gophers shot 12 and made 15 more free throws than the Buckeyes, with that difference more than accounting for the final margin. Now that OSU is at home expect them to have the zebra edge and thus continue the home domination of this series.
The Experts Guaranteed Selections
ULTIMATE EXPERTS BIG 10 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
Ohio St -7
Wise Guy Insider Guaranteed Selections
QUADRUPLE COLLEGE HOOPS BLOWOUT WINNER
Tennessee -7.5
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: VIRGINIA
The Tar Heels finally ended their first three-game losing streak of the Roy Williams era on Tuesday, and they did so with a dominating 14-point win at North Carolina State (as a one-point road favorite). But that doesn’t mean all is perfect on Tobacco Road. This is still a very young, very raw team, and with the injuries they’ve been dealing with all season, the Heels have no business laying this kind of number, even at home.
Yes, Virginia has followed up an eight-game winning streak with consecutive ACC losses to Wake Forest (69-57 on the road) and Virginia Tech (76-71 in overtime). But the Cavaliers have been in virtually every game they’ve played this season, losing by more than five points just twice (the 12-point setback at Wake Forest and a 66-49 loss at South Florida back in the second game of the season).
The reason Virginia has been able to hang in almost all of its games is it plays tremendous defense. In fact, the 76 points Virginia Tech scored on Thursday (again, in overtime!) was the most the Cavaliers have allowed all year. In fact, Virginia (which gives up 61.7 ppg overall) has surrendered more than 69 points just three times. And when you compare what these teams have done in five ACC games, you’ll see North Carolina (71.8 ppg) is averaging 1 point per game more than Virginia (70.8) while giving up 73 ppg.
The Cavaliers have covered in three of the last four meetings with North Carolina – and keep in mind, those Tar Heels teams had Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, etc., etc. In fact, facing that experienced bunch in Chapel Hill last year, Virginia hardly embarrassed itself, losing by 15 points as a 24-point ‘dog. And that Cavaliers team last year finished the season 10-18 overall and 4-12 in conference!
Finally, the Tar Heels enter this game 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 ACC contests and 2-7 ATS in their last nine on Sunday. And while they easily covered at N.C. State earlier in the week, they’ve cashed in back-to-back games just once all year and not since early December (going 0-5 ATS in their last five when coming off a spread-cover).
Bottom line: Virginia’s defense will keep them in this game the entire way, and they have the ability to score on a Tar Heels squad that has given up 70 points or more in five of its last seven games. Take the points (and don’t be shocked if this is a tight, five-point game in the final minute).
CHRIS JORDAN
1,000♦ BUTLER BULLDOGS
Jason Johnson
Suns at Rockets
Pick: Rockets -4
Phoenix has really been playing some awful basketball as of late. They have lost seven of their last 10 overall. On the road, they have lost 12 of their last 13. While Houston has had some difficulty covering the number lately, they're coming off a home win over Portland. I expect them to build on the momentum tonight. Rebounding will be the difference in a Rockets seven point win.
KING CREOLE
5* DEN / SAN Under 198
As of Saturday night, there was no OU Line for this game. That’s based on the questionable status of TONY PARKER for the Spurs and CARMELO ANTHONY of the Nuggets. That’s potentially 47 combined points (Anthony: 29.7 / Parker: 16.9) that could be out of the starting lineups. Denver went UNDER by 15 points on Friday with Anthony out. If they don’t play, so much the better. If they somehow DO play, neither will be at 100% anyway. We project the OU line in this one to be 195 to 203 points.
We already know (from researching this game for the Playbook BKB newsletter) that’s this is a LOW-scoring series. The Spurs / Nuggets series has gone 6-20-1 O/U in the last 27 meetings… and 1-7 O/U in the last 8 played IN San Antonio. Team OU trends also look promising.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 O/U on Sundays… 1-7 O/U in a 1/1 rest situation… and 5-21-2 O/U versus winning (>.500) opponents. DENVER is 1-7 O/U away in a 1/1 rest situation… 1-5 O/U in Sunday RG… 0-5 O/U away vs the Southwest division… 7-24-1 O/U versus winning teams… and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss.
Now let’s look as all the applicable OU SYSTEMS that this game qualifies in.
1-11 O/U this season: All SOUTHWEST division home teams (Spurs) versus a NORTHWEST Division opponent (Nuggets)… when the game line is 5 or less points.
0-6 O/U since November: All SUNDAY Western Conference home teams in a 1/1 rest situation (Spurs)… versus a fellow Western Conference opponent (Nuggets).
1-7 O/U since November: All Western Conference .600 or greater HOME teams (Spurs) versus a Western Conference .600 or greater opponent (Nuggets)… when the OU Line is > 200 points (Check line).
0-8 O/U in January: All NBA teams off a SU road dog loss of 15 > points (Nuggets)… in a game that went “UNDER” the Total with an OU line of 200 > points (Nuggets).
0-5 O/U last 5 year: All Western Conference teams playing in their 6th STRAIGHT home game and off a SU win (Spurs)… versus a fellow Western Conference opponent off a SU loss (Nuggets).
5-19-1 O/U this season: All NBA teams playing off BB SU and ATS home favorite wins (Spurs). And since December, .600 or greater teams have gone 1-9 O/U (Spurs).
13-30 O/U Since 2002: All NBA road teams playing off a SU loss that broke a 8+ game WINNING streak (Nuggets). When these visitors are getting 8 points, the numbers improve to 1-9 O/U.
Wayne Root
Billionaire - Clemson
Millionaire - Sou Fla