Mike Lineback
4* Boston Celtics -2.5
King Creole
2* Lakers / Celtics Under 187.5
'UNDER the TOTAL' for the THIRD straight game? You better believe it. Please remember, this play is only a NORMAL 3*** selection. It's nowhere near as strong as Thursday's 5* BEST BET was. So now that we have a nice FAT Basketball bankroll, let's not give away ALL the winning from the current 8-game Playoff winni~ng streak. Play this game as a normal 3*** Play (3% of your overall bankroll). When we win, that's fine. The payoff will be enormous. But if it comes up short... we STILL want to be able to collect a large amount from our 'man' on Monday morning... right?
LAKERS: 1-5 O/U in ALL Playoff Game Fives over the last 3 years.... 0-3-1 O/U so far this season as Playoff UNDERDOGS of 180 points.
Let's look at how the series has played out thus far from a W / L standpoint. LA won Game One... Boston won Game Two... LA won Game Three... and Boston won Game Four.
0-5-1 O/U since 2003: All Playoff GAME FIVE home teams (Celtics) off a SU win... SU loss... SU win... and SU loss. Going all the way back to the 1994 season, these games have gone a perfect 0-2 O/U in the FINAL ROUND.
The WINNING team's SU margin has been 7 or more points in EVERY game thus far....
8-23-2 O/U since 1999: ALL NBA Playoff teams off a SU Playoff win of 7 > pts... a SU playoff loss of 7 > pts... and a SU Playoff win of 7 > pts (Celtics)... when the OU line is 193 < points. This situation gets stronger for the UNDER The deeper we get into the Playoffs: 5-18 O/U In Rounds 2, 3, or 4.... and 2-10 O/U in Rounds 3 or 4 (1-7 O/U since 2004).
A look at each team's SEED also points us in the right direction:
0-5 O/U since 1996: All '4.5' (Rd 4 / Gm 5) teams that are a #1 SEED and playing on the road (Lakers)... when the OU line is < 192 points.
1-8 O/U since 2006: ALL NBA Playoff #4 SEED home teams (Celtics) when playing a #1 SEED opponent (Lakers)... when the OU line is 193 <
points.
As is usually the case, we close our query with a look at this particular Day of the Week:
8-19 O/U: All NBA Playoff FINAL ROUND home favorites (Celtics) playing on a SUNDAY. 'Shorter' favs of points (Celtics).
Larry Ness
10* Boston Celtics
Setting the stage for the importance of winning Game 5 is fairly easy. Game 5 winners in best of-of-seven series tied at two-all have gone on to win 130 of the previous 156 series (that's 83.3 percent) in NBA postseason history. Much has been made of the current 2-3-2 format these last 25 years and taking a microscope to the EIGHT series which have been tied at two-all since 1985, we find that Game 5 winners have gone on to capture the series SIX times. The exceptions have been the 1988 Pistons, who won Game 5 at home but then lost Games 6 and 7 in LA, plus the 1994 Knicks, who won Game 5 at home but then lost Games 6 and 7 in Houston. It's interesting to note that home teams in these Game 5s (under the 2-3-2 format) are just 4-4 SU, when a series has been tied at two-all and just TWO of the four Game 5 winners have been able to eventually win the series (the '85 Lakers and the '06 Heat). In contrast, the four visiting teams to have won their Games 5s, have all gone on to take the title. Three teams won in six games (the '92 Bulls, the '97 Bulls and the '03 Spurs) and a fourth won in seven (the '05 Spurs). While this "sets the stage," it doesn't give us any real help in determining this year's Game 5 pointspread winner. I'm taking the Celtics in Game 5 and here's why. Boston did little to stop either Gasol (20.3-10.7 on 57.1 percent shooting) or Bynum (13.3-7.3 on 52.0 percent shooting) in the first three games (LA led 2-1). Odom had done little in LA's first two games but went 5-of-5 from the floor in Game 3, scoring 12 points and grabbing five rebounds. LA's size and length looked as if it could control this series, as Boston's lone win up to that point had come when Ray Allen (32 points while setting a Finals record with eight, three-pointers) and Rondo (19-12-10) had 'monster' efforts in game 2. However, Boston showed a lot of grit and determination in Game 4, as Pierce played his best game of the series (Artest looked helpless) and the Boston reserves dominated a close game in the 4th quarter. Boston's bench would outscore LA's 36-18 for the game, as Davis scored 18 points and Nate Robinson added 12 in 17 minutes. LA's bench has been little more than Odom (he had 10 of the 18 points in Game 4) all series and with Bynum's play likely to be limited with his knee issues, Odom is almost a defacto starter. Remember, KG did little in Boston's Game 4 win plus Allen (4-of-11, including 0-of-4 on threes) and Rondo (5-of-15 shooting for just 10 points) hardly distinguished themselves. Boston has a lot of room for improvement. Kobe's been somewhat held in check this series (he's shooting just 40.9 percent) and while he is always a threat to "take over," my gut tells me this is Boston's game. Gasol's been great but Artest was "defensively challenged" in Game 4 plus he continues to be an offensive 'nightmare,' making 27.3 percent on threes this postseason (why is he allowed to take them?). Fisher was terrific in Game 3 (11 of his 16 points in the 4th quarter) but he's made just 8-of-22 shots (36.3 percent) in the other three games (7.0 PPG) and has yet to make a three-pointer this series (0-7!). I'm NOT counting the Lakers out of this series by a long shot but I do believe they'll have to win Games 6 and 7 back in LA if they want that second straight title. Take the Celtics.
Jim Feist
Inner Circle: LA Lakers
The Lakers have looked like the bigger, better, healthier team in the Finals, despite being tied 2-2. Paul Gasol has played great and Center Andruw Bynum says he remains optimistic he will play Sunday in Game 5. Having an extra day off is a lucky break for Bynum and the Lakers. The duo combined for a remarkable 13 blocks in Game 2 and LA has dominated the paint in the first three games. The Celtics may be feeling good after tying things up, but the fact is the Laker defense has been very good, along with their rebounding. Ray Allen had a record-setting Game 2 and the Celtics still almost lost after getting dominated in Game 1. Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have been inconsistent, with Rondo and Allen playing 2 poor games at home in a row. Look for Kobe and the LA big men to keep this pivotal game REAL close. Play the Lakers in Game 5.
Roz Juarbe
NBA Pivotal Playoff Game of the Year
Los Angeles Lakers / Boston Celtics Under
Two outstanding defensive teams meet here in Boston and it's a ivotal Game 5, meaning SO much is at stake. Game 1 squeezed under the total, even though Boston didn't even show up defensively, as did Games 3 and 4. The pace of this series has slowed, as the Lakers prefer the halfcourt game because of their big size advantage. Game 2 was a strong defensive game by both teams, with the Lakers shooting 41% and the Celtics 42% and Games 3 and 4 were all defense. he th quarter of Game4 was an aberration with all that late scoring, but it still sailed undr. The Celtics are a veteran team and most of the players won an NBA title against these Lakers just two years ago as defense led the charge. The defense has led the charge in the 2010 postseason as the Celtics defense has been sensational overall, stifling Cleveland and Orlando. Both regular season meetings were way under the total in slow, defensive games, meaning the UNDER is 5-1 between these teams this season. Look for another slow pace, defensive game with so much at stake. Play the Celtics/Lakers in Game 5 Under the total.
Hollywood Sports
25* Los Angeles Lakers
We have had a good pulse on this series after stumbling in Game 1 (where we thought the Celtics would provide a better effort). After correctly suspecting that the Lakers would travel to Boston to reclaim home court advantage in this series by winning Game 3, we expected a Lakers' letdown in Game 4 given the luxury of that not being a must-win situation for them. It is pretty clear that the Lakers did not provide their A-Game regarding their effort in Game 4 which resulted in that 96-89 loss. They turned the ball over 16 times -- including seven from Kobe Bryant and four from Pau Gasol. Furthermore, the Celtics outworked the Lakers on the glass. Boston out-rebounded LA by a 51-42 margin while their 16 offensive rebounds doubled what the Lakers were able to manage. As a result, Boston outscored LA by a 15-2 margin in fast break points which really helped make a difference. Yet Los Angeles was hanging around still in Game 4 before a 36-point Celtics' 4th quarter explosion put the Lakers away. For Game 5, we do not expect the Celtics to enjoy a similar advantage. We expect a furious effort from the Lakers in their last road game of the season.
A Lakers win in Game 5 all but seals the deal for them as it will be very difficult for the Celtics to win two games back in Los Angeles. We expect big things out of Kobe. We take note that he and Gasol remain very effective against the Celtics' defense. In Game 4, this duo combined for 54 points on 43 possessions. On the other hand, the inconsistent Big 4 from Boston managed only 54 points on 58 combined possessions. The Lakers' defense is doing a good job of keeping those stars in relative check. Rarely are two of those Celtics having good nights in the same game. Boston's second unit made the difference in the 4th quarter in Game 4 -- but the Celtics must get more out of their aging veterans to win another game in this series. Of course, the Lakers' are concerned with the condition of Andrew Bynum's knee. He did not play much in Game 4 and should benefit from the two days off before this game. He is listed as probable. Without Bynum for most of Game 4, coach Phil Jackson often went to a three-guard lineup that hurt the Lakers on the boards. Forward Luke Walton -- who played well in their Game 3 win -- did not get time in Game 4. We look for Jackson to get Walton involved off the bench to help on the boards. In all, we look for the Lakers to play much better after being held to under 90 points for the first time since Game 4 of their series with Oklahoma City. 25-Star NBA Finals Game 5 ATS Smackdown with the Los Angeles Lakers plus the points over the Boston Celtics.
Matt Fargo
10* Boston Celtics
We have cashed all four games in the Finals thus far as we have gone the alternating route or the bounceback option as the Lakers and Celtics have alternated wins through the first four games. I am going to buck this trend on Sunday as the Celtics, who played solid in desperation time, will have to once again dig deep to avoid going down a game and needing to win the final two games in Los Angeles to win the championship. The best part about the Game Four win was that it was the Celtics bench that was the difference as the Boston starting five played well below average. That means it is rebound time for those starters as they knew they were bailed out. As was the case for Game Three, the Game Four plan is to have at least two of the three “Big Three” step up. It did not happen last game and they got away with it but they cannot count on the reserves for a second straight game. The Celtics have yet to see a consistent effort form the majority of the trio and part of that problem is foul trouble that each of the Big Three has endured (Ray Allen in Game One, Kevin Garnett in Game Two and Paul Pierce in Game Three). Foul trouble was not the issue on Thursday as it was simply a bad game by most. Another key has been rebounding as one team has outboarded the other by an average of nearly eight per game. To no surprise, that team with the board edge has won all four games. The Celtics controlled the offensive glass in Game Four and that needs to take place again in Game Five. The reason it can happen is that Andrew Bynum’s knee is not getting any better and it is getting worse actually. Bynum has fought through knee pain for six weeks after sustaining torn cartilage in the first round against Oklahoma City, but he couldn't tolerate it any longer, saying, “I didn't really have any strength in the leg.”, according to the L.A. times. He gets an extra day of rest here but I don’t think it is going to matter. Bynum said the condition of his knee is the worst it's been since he suffered a slight tear to his meniscus on April 30th in Game Six of the Lakers' first-round series with the Oklahoma City Thunder and he is flying in his personal physician to look at the injured knee which is not a good sign. With the being another ‘Must Win’ for the Celtics, the line should show that but it has not and the reason is the same as in Game Four. The linesmakers have not made the overadjustment of the ‘Must Win’ team being overpriced. The thinking is relatively simple because the higher that line gets, the more action will come in on the publicly loved Lakers. 10* Boston Celtics
Nick Parsons
10* Lakers/Celtics Under
Marc Lawrence
L.A. Lakers +3
Lakers meet the Celtics in Boston in Game Five of the NBA Championship Series Sunday night they will do so in a terrific winning situation. That comes about because No. 1 seeds with a win percentage of .700 or greater are 19-8 ATS as road dogs in the playoffs when playing off one loss exact, including 11-0 ATS if the Over/Under Total in the game is 187.5 or greater. The Lakers oblige, having gone 13-4 ATS as a playoff dog of more than one point when playing off one SU and ATS loss exact. With Boston just 3-9 ATS when hosting the Lakers when Los Angeles is off a loss, look for L.A. to win this pivotal game tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on the Lakers.
Joe Wiz
1000000% confirmed
GIGANTIC NBA PARLAY:
Celtics
Celtics Under
MLB SUNDAY NIGHT:
Cubs
His pay-after-you-win is not released until the day of the games.
Fantasy Gametime Sports
100* Play Tampa Bay (-190) over FloridaGame starts at 1:40 PM EST Tampa Bay has won 60 of the last 79 home games as a favorite of -150 to -200 and they have also won 11 of the last 14 games vs. Florida. Jeff Niemann has won 7 consecutive games when pitching in the month of June and he is 6-0 overall this season with an ERA of 2.48.
50* Play Detroit (-190) over PittsburghGame starts at 1:00 PM EST Detroit has won 17 of the last 20 inter-league home games and they have also won 25 of the last 33 home games when playing in the month of June. Armando Galarraga has won 11 of the last 13 games when pitching in the month of June and he is 2-0 at home this season with an ERA of 0.61.
Sunday World Cup Soccer
50* Play Slovenia/Algeria UNDER 2 Goals
50* Play Ghana/Serbia UNDER 2 Goals
50* Play Australia/Germany UNDER 2.5 Goals
Sunday WNBA Hoops
25* Play Atlanta (-6) over San Antonio San Antonio has lost 4 of the last 5 games and they have also lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread vs. Atlanta. San Antonio has lost 14 of the last 18 non-conference games against the spread and they have also lost 14 of the last 18 games against the spread coming off a win.
Rob Vinciletti
Athletics / Giants Under 7.5
AC Sports Advisors
20* San Francisco Giants
Jeff Hochman
5* Minnesota Twins -137
Teddy Covers
LA Lakers +3