ATS Lock Club
5 Units Phillies +110 over Red Sox
4 Units Reds -110 over Royals
3 Units Lakers +3 over Celtics
Bob Balfe
Boston Red Sox -125
Until Philly can score runs in bunches, its a no-brainier to go against them behind a hot-hitting Red Sox team that has just crushed them in the past two nights. Cole Hamels should pitch decent but, if the Philles are unable to score, then there is no way they can manage to stay in this game on the road. Take the Red Sox.
Australia +650
There is a lot of talk of this being a weaker German team than in past years but I am not really buying that. They have a new goaltender going against a veteran in net for Australia. This line holds tremendous value if Australia can get a good aerial attack going. They have a very credible shot at winning this game. Lets take our chances here with a big money line win. Take Australia.
Jeff Benton
15 DIME Celtics
10 DIME Padres
Celtics
Two ways to look at this game: Either you play the Lakers because of the zigzag theory – these teams have alternated wins and losses in the first four games of this series and all six meetings this season – or you side with Boston because this game is immansely more important to the Celtics than it is to L.A.
Obviously, I’m going with the latter. And the reason can be summed up in two words: Andrew Bynum. The Lakers big man – who is playing on a bum knee – was a force in the first three games of this series (combined 40 points, 22 rebounds and eight blocked shots while playing 28, 39 and 29 minutes). However, Bynum reinjured his knee toward the tail end of Game 3 and was a total non-factor in L.A.’s 96-89 loss, producing just two points and three rebounds in 12 minutes.
Without Bynum on the floor, the Celtics had their way with the Lakers down low (Boston had a 54-34 advantage in points in the paint, plus a 41-34 rebounding edge). Without Bynum on the floor, Glen “Big Baby Davis” did his best Wes Unseld imperesonation with a 18 points and five rebounds, the majority of which came in the fourth quarter when the Celtics bench dominated the Lakers’ starters and outscored Los Angeles 36-27.
And that brings me to another point: Because guys like Big Baby, Rasheed Wallace, Tony Allen and Nate Robinson brought their collective “A” game in the fourth quarter on Thursday, the Celts were able to rest their core four (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo). In the case of aging vets like Garnett, Allen and Pierce, the benefit of the extra minutes on the bench is obvious. But Rondo also is helped by the rest as he’s carried the load for Boston all spring long. That means all four guys should be extremely fresh and energized, especially after two full days off.
On the flip side, L.A.’s big guns – Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom – all played at least 39 minutes.
Add it all up, and you’ve got a fully rested Celtics team at home in what amounts to a must-win game against a Lakers squad that’s reeling after blowing Game 4. And even though Bynum says he’s going to play tonight, no way in hell will he be as effective as he was in Games 1 and 2 – and because of the way Bynum clogs up the lane, you could easily argue he’s THE most imporoant Lakers player in this series. Throw in the fact that the Celtics cannot lose this game – they’re NOT winning two in a row in L.A. – and Boston is the smart play here, especially in this reasonable spread range (the first four games have been decided by 13, 9, 7 and 7 points).
Padres
It’s time. It’s time to take the San Diego Padres seriously. At 37-25, they not only have the best record in the National League, they’ve got the third best record in all of baseball – only the Rays (40-22) and Yankees (39-23) are better.
Most importantly, when you look at the money standings, no team in baseball has been more profitable than the Friars, and it really isn’t even close. In fact, San Diego has generated 1,597 “units” of profit this season. The next best team (Toronto) is at 953 “units,” while the Nationals (787 “units”) are third on the list. Digest that for a second: San Diego has essentially brought home twice as much money as all but one team in baseball!
As for this matchup, well, where do I start? For San Diego to be a moderate favorite against the Mariners is a joke. Seattle is 23-39 on the season (8-22 on the road). The Padres are 37-25 overall (20-12 at home). And since losing the first game to Seattle this season, San Diego has won four in a row over the Mariners.
Sure, the Mariners are sending Felix Hernandez to the mound today, but so what? The Padres still have the superior starting pitcher in Clayton Richard.
Yes, you read that last sentence right. Clayton Richard (4-23, 2.72 ERA) has been better – MUCH better – than Felix Hernandez (3-5, 3.77 ERA). Proving that point, Richard has held 11 of 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer; he’s given up exactly one run in four of his last five starts; and the only time this season he allowed more than three runs he gave up a whopping four spot.
Compare that to King Felix, who’s coming off an ugly start in Texas (seven runs allowed in six innings), and Seattle lost that contest 7-1. Hardly surprising, considering the Mariners are 1-8 in Hernandez’s last nine starts overall, including 0-5 on the road! The cumulative score in those eight losses with Hernandez on the bump: Opponents 49, Seattle 17. Included there is an 8-1 home loss to San Diego back on May 23!
Bottom line, guys: Whether or not the general public chooses to believe it, the Padres are for real – and without question they’re infinitely better than the Mariners. And to get San Diego on its home field with a hotter pitcher against a piss-poor road team like the Mariners at such a dirt cheap price is just too good to pass up.
Oh, one more thing: The Mariners have lost 50 of their last 67 games – yep, that’s 17-50 – as a road underdog.
SPORTBOOK GURU
3 Units Chicago Cubs -142
2 Units Cleveland/Washington Over 8
2 Units Boston/Philadelphia Over 9.5
2 Units NY Yankees/Houston Under 9
2 Units LA Dodgers/LA Angels Under 8
Tim Trushel
SF Giants Under
Seattle
Executive
250% Celtics
250% Braves
Ben Burns
10* Orioles +1.5
9* Dodgers
8* Brewers
10* Celtics -3
10* Over 188
Teddy Covers
Lakers +3
STL/ARI Under 8.5
BIG AL
Rays/Marlins Over 8.5
Analysis: At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays 'over' the total. Whether or not both teams score a bunch of runs in this game remains to be seen but chances are at least one of them will. Heading into Saturday's play, The Marlins had scored 30 runs in their last four games, and not to be outdone, the Rays have exactly matched that number in their last four. For Rays starter righthander Jeff Niemann, his team has been supporting him big-time at the plate lately, scoring 44 runs in Niemann's last seven starts and 21 in his last three. Niemann hasn't needed much support this season in most of his games, but he'll no doubt take the extra charity that his offense has been providing. The high-powered offenses came out in the first game of this series on Friday night as the Marlins scored early and often, but the Rays put up some fireworks and Florida held on for a 14-9 win. Heading into Saturday's games, the over was 6-2-1 in Tampa's last nine overall and 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings of these two. Take the 'over.'
Rangers/Brewers Under 8
Analysis: At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers 'under' the total. With all the aces in the National League this season, one name that has gone completely under the radar despite some pretty dominant numbers is Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo. All the fourth-year righthander has done so far is go 6-2 with a 2.41 ERA in his first 13 starts. The 6-2 record is even more impressive when you consider that Gallardo's team is just 26-36 on the season after their first 62 games. Gallardo has been near-perfect lately, going 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in his last three starts (the Brewers are 3-0 in those games). The Rangers will turn to righthander Colby Lewis in this game and although nowhere near the numbers Gallardo has been providing, Lewis hasn't been half bad either with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first 12 starts. But the Ranger bats haven't turned out that much for Lewis recently as in his last eight starts, Texas has scored more than three runs twice and they've only scored more than two runs three times. With Saturday's 4-3 Rangers win, the under is now an astounding 25-8-1 in Texas' last 34 inter-league games. Take the 'under.'
Germany -210
Analysis: At 2:30 pm, our selection is on Germany over Australia. Germany starts the tournament priced @ +1400 to win the World Cup but has been slightly written off this time around, especially without captain Michael Ballack who had to withdraw through injury. However, it is foolish to ever underestimate the Germans given their prestigious record. They have lifted the cup three times – only Brazil (5) and Italy (4) have done better. They have also reached the semi-final more times than any other team and reached the quarter-final in the last 14 World Cups. Germany qualified for the tournament unbeaten, winning eight and drawing two sending them through as group winners after beating Russia 1-0 in Moscow. Australia, admittedly, has some experienced English Premier League players but are aging and many of the players are past their best. Relatively poor opposition in the Asian qualifying process did not really test the team and I do not think their organized defensive system will work against the world's top players. The small question mark for the German side is its strength in depth when it goes against the better sides. Group D, however, should pose no problems but manager Joachim Low will have to be at his tactical best in the later stages. Look for Germany to comfortably win this opening game.
Frank Patron
Boston Celtics -2.5
Anthony Redd
Lakers/Celtics Over
Bobby Maxwell
Lakers
Chris Jordan
Tampa Bay -1.5
Celtics
Chuck O'Brien
Angels
Tampa Bay/Marlins Over
Chuck Mancini
Celtics
Karl Garrett
Celtics
Tampa Bay -1.5
Michael Cannon
Celtics
Stephen Nover
Lakers/Celtics Over
Street Rosenthal
200* Angels
200* Twins
Seabass
All 50*
Clev
Balt +1.5
Oak +1.5
Cubs
200* Steam Play Minn
100* Lakers Over
Super Sports Group
Houston v. NY
PICK: Stros RL (+1.5) +145 Game
KC v. Cincinnati
PICK: Reds ML ev Game
NY v. Baltimore
PICK: Orioles ML +126 Game best bet of the day #2
Atlanta v. Minnesota
PICK: Braves ML +135 Game
Seattle v. San Diego
PICK: Mariners ML ev Game
PICK: OVER 6.5 Game +105 Best bet of the day #2
RAS
Minnesota/Los Angeles Under 162.5