Anthony Redd
100 Dime Lakers/Celtics Over
King Creole
2* BOSTON CELTICS +6
We'll play on the Game Two 'ZIG-ZAG' as profits have been very good as of late when playing AGAINST the SU and ATS winner of Game One of any Playoff series. Before we get to some key and applicable ATS Systems, let's take a look at each teams' INDIVIDUAL Playoff tendencies and probabilities.
LA LAKERS (complacency?):
2-9-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons when coming in off a DOUBLE-DIGIT Playoff win...
1-9 ATS as Playoff favorites of -8 or less points on a SUNDAY...
1-6-1 ATS since 1991 in the '4.2' game specifically (Round 4 / Game 2)...
1-7 ATS as Playoff ROUND FOUR favorites of -6 > points...
BOSTON CELTICS (urgency?):
16-7-1 ATS as Playoff DOGS in the last 3 years... 5-1 ATS when playing off a loss... and a perfect 4-0 ATS as dogs of 5 > points...
9-2 ATS on the road off a DOUBLE-DIGIT Playoff loss...
8-2 ATS in ALL Playoff GAME TWOS in the last 3 years (4-0 ATS last 2 years)...
10-3 ATS vs ALL Playoff #1 Seed opponents... including a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss...
Now, on to the LEAGUE Systems that are active for Sunday's Game Two:
0-6 ATS since 1993: ALL Playoff GAME TWO home teams (in Round 3 or 4) playing off 3 or more' 'UNDERS' in a row (Lakers).
8-17-1 ATS since 1991: ALL Playoff ROUND 4 home favorites of -8 points.
7-0 ATS since 1992: ALL Playoff GAME TWO #4 Seed teams (CELTICS) when playing a #1 Seed team (Lakers)... when the OU line falls in the range of 181 to 210 points.
7-1 ATS since 1992: ALL Playoff '4.2' underdogs (CELTICS) who won their previous Playoff round in 6 games.
4-0 ATS since 1992: ALL ROUND 3 or 4 underdogs of > 5 points playing off a DD SU loss... a DD SU win... and a DD SU loss (CELTICS).
Marc Lawrence
3 Units Boston Celtics +5.5
When the Celtics take the court Sunday night against the Lakers in Game Two of this NBA Championship Series they will do so knowing that road teams in this round off a SU and ATS loss are 17-4 ATS when the Over/Under total in the game is 181 or higher, including 9-0 ATS when taking 5.5 or more points. With the Celtics 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the playoffs off one loss exact when facing an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, and the Lakers 0-3 ATS at home in the playoffs this round off a double-digit home win and cover this decade, look for the points to be the play here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Boston.
Ben Burns
10* Boston Celtics +6
As you know, the Lakers won Game 1 in convincing fashion. Often, when a favorite covers in the opening game of a series, the line will be slightly lower for the second game. That's not the case here though. In fact, the current line is slightly higher than it was for the opener. I feel that provides us with excellent value on the underdog Celtics.
In my writeup for Game 1 on the Lakers, I noted that the home team had gone a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in Game 1 of the Finals, over the last five years. However, Game 2 has often been a different story. Last year, was a prime example. In Game 1, the Lakers destroyed the Magic by 25 points.
In Game 2, off that blowout, the line climbed from -6 to -6.5. Yet, the contest was much closer. In fact, it went to overtime, with the Lakers eventually winning by just five points. The previous year, when these teams faced each other in the Finals, Game 2 was also closer than Game 1. The Celtics won the first by double-digits. Yet, Game 2 was decided by only six points.
Looking more closely at the Finals meeting between these teams two years ago and we find that the Lakers did win two of the three games at LA. However, both those victories came by six points or less. Overall, the Lakers are just 11-18-2 ATS their last 31 in the NBA Finals, including 4-7 ATS their last 11.
Even with the Game 1 loss, the Celtics are still 6-1 ATS their last seven in the Finals. They've also been outstanding at bouncing back from a big loss. In fact, they're 19-6 SU and 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were coming off a double-digit setback. That includes a 8-4 SU/ATS mark the last dozen times that they were in that situation.
It should also be noted that the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were trailing in a playoff series. This season, after losing Game 1 at Cleveland, listed as +6 point underdogs, they bounced back with a 18-point victory in Game 2. Also, after losing Game 1 at Orlando, listed as +7 point underdogs, they bounced back with a 3-point victory in Game 2. Combine that with their 29-point victory vs. Miami the second game of the opening round and we find them at 3-0 SU/ATS in Game 2 in these playoffs, winning by 50 combined points.
I expect a much better game from the Eastern Conference Champs here, as they continue their "Game 2 success" by earning at least another cover.
Chuck O'Brien
50 Dime: Braves-Dodgers Under
Bob Akmens Sports
10* Celtics/Lakers Under 190
10* Seattle
10* Blackhawks
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Colorado (-200) over Arizona
50* Play Boston (-160) over Baltimore
25* Play Chicago (-200) over Philadelphia
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units Boston -1.5 -104
1 Unit LA Dodgers -125
1 Unit Detroit -135
Bob Balfe
San Francisco Giants -200
Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in baseball and faces a bad Pirates team that consistently has trouble generating hits and scoring runs. If the Giants can put up 3 runs, then they will probably win this game. Ohlendorf is not a good pitcher (don't let his last start fool you) and should get knocked around by San Fran.
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Atlanta at L.A. Dodgers
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) HUDSON, T vs. (R) ELY, J
Play: Atlanta (ML +111) Solid Gold Play
Tough pitching duel at Dodger Stadium today in the windup of the weekend set between the Braves and LA. Tim Hudson continues to roll out quality starts for the Braves, while rookie John Ely has been an absolute revelation for the host team. The key to this contest is the offense. The Braves are mashing the ball right now. Troy Glaus is on a rampage, and has transformed the middle of the Atlanta order. The Dodgers are not hitting well at all right now, and prospects for a breakout against Hudson are dim. The Braves are a definite go-with entry right now and I'll be glad to take them at dog odds today.
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Matchup: L.A. Angels at Seattle
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PINEIRO, J vs. (L) VARGAS, J
Play: Seattle (ML -115)
One of the better angles this season has been betting on road underdogs that are attempting to finish off a road sweep. The Angels are in that scenario here, but regardless of the trend, I'm betting against the Halos this time. The Mariners are getting one quality start after another from Jason Vargas, and he's up against an LAA squad that hasn't exactly been blowing up the scoreboard against decent southpaws. The flip side is Joel Pineiro, who is getting crushed on the road. Pineiro is now 1-4 with a remarkably bloated 8.89 ERA in away games. The big edge on the mound makes me believe there's enough value on Seattle at a small price to warrant backing the Mariners to capture the series finale.
John Fina
Celtics
ROCKETMAN
5* Oakland -125
Oakland is 14-7 this year in day games. Oakland bullpen has a 2.85 ERA at home this year. Nick Blackburn has a 6.44 ERA on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez is 5-3 with a 3.68 ERA overall this year, 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA his last 3 starts. Blackburn is 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997. His team is 0-5 overall vs Oakland during those starts since 1997. Twins are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Twins are 9-20 in Blackburns last 29 road starts. Twins are 3-13 in Blackburns last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Twins are 1-8 in Blackburns last 9 starts vs. American League West. Twins are 0-7 in Blackburns last 7 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Athletics are 15-3 in their last 18 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Athletics are 20-8 in their last 28 games as a favorite. Athletics are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a home favorite. We'll play Oakland for 5 units today!
Bob Balfe
Celtics/Lakers Under 190
Sportbook Guru
3 units NY Yankees -135
3 units NY Mets -110
2 units LA Angels +100
2 units Houston +105
10 units Lakers -6
10 units Celtics/Lakers Under 191
JR O'Donnell
3* Brewers / Cards Over 8.5
Vegas has the public set up at 8.5 -120 as the Brewers left 10 men on base last night and tonight's National TV battle will produce runs big time! Manny Parra with a "close to 5 ERA" has given up runs to the mighty Cards and the Brewers are an Over machine @ 18-12 to the Over and the Brewers are 32-20 Over this season!! The Cards Garcia has been dynamite so far and the Brew crew will get to him tonight. The sharp play is the Over here tonight and the JR O Express will play on a National TV OVER 8.5 bomb tonight