Larry Ness
10* PERFECT STORM - CELTICS
The Celtics manhandled the Lakers in the 2008 Finals, winning in six games while covering all six. Kobe shot just 40.5 percent in that series, Gasol averaged 14.2-102. but was labeled 'soft' plus Bynum was sidelined due to a season-ending injury. The Celtics were led by their new version of the "Big Three" and the group delivered. Pierce (21.2-4.5-6.3) was named MVP, KG averaged 18.2-13.0 posting six straight "double-doubles" while Allen averaged 17.2 PPG. Fast-forwarding to Game 1 of the 2010 Finals this past Thursday night in LA, absolute NOTHING we saw reminded us the 2008 Finals. Kobe scored 30 poi€nts for the 11th time in his last 12 postseason games (added seven rebounds and six assists), the once 'soft' Gasol dominated play inside with 23 points and 14 rebounds (made 8-of-14 shots) and Bynum (while not 100 percent) played 28 minutes with 10 points and six rebounds. Artest, who in 2008 toiled for the Kings, scored 15 points and was able to guard Pierce for a good part of the game, giving Kobe a break from the defensive assignment which consumed him in the 2008 Finals. As for Boston, the team which shut down LBJ and the Cavs and then humbled the Magic in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Celtics never seemed in the game defensively, physically or emotionally. LA led 84-64 at the end of the third quarter. Despite just "playing out the string" in the fourth quarter, LA ended with 102 points, shot 48.7 percent and outscored Boston in the paint, 48-30. Pierce scored 24 points (also had nine rebounds and four assists) but KG made just 7-of-16 shots for 16 points plus grabbed a Stoudemire-like four rebounds. In fact, Gasol's 14 rebounds equaled the total grabbed by KG (4), Rasheed (4), Perkins (3) and Davis (3). Ray Allen made just 3-of-8 shots for 12 points. He, Tony Allen and Pierce took turns trying guard Kobe and the three accumulated 14 fouls. Rondo had a line of 13-6-8 but hardly dominated the near 36-year-old Fisher, as many had predicted before the series started. The Celtics are well aware that Phil Jackson coached teams are 47-0 all-time in playoff series after winning the first game, including 23-0 with the Lakers. I was "all over" the Lakers in Game 1 of this series (NBA Game of the Year) nailing it just right, EXPECTING and GETTING a great effort from LA. However, I'm backing the Celtics in this one. Boston isn't thinking about Jackson's streak of winning all previous series after winning Game 1 but what Boston can't afford here is falling down 0-2. Teams doing that have won just 14 times in 233 previous tries!. In this 2-3-2 format (started in the 84-85 season), falling behind 0-2 has meant almost certain 'death!' Of the 15 teams which have fallen behind 0-2 in the NBA Finals since that 1985 postseason, just ONE (the 2006 Miami Heat) has come back to win the title. If the Celtics lose here, even a three-game sweep back in Boston next week (unlikely), might not be enough to give the Celtics their 18th NBA title. The Celtics were outplayed in every aspect on Thursday, especially in the 'effort department.' That's unacceptable to Rivers and the team knows it. I wonder if the Lakers are capable of matching their Game 1 intensity and overall level of play. We KNOW the Celtics have nowhere to go but to IMPROVE their intensity and level of play. I expect the "Big Three" to come up big and for Rondo to make a HUGE difference in what is almost a "now or never" game for Boston. Take the points.
Stephen Nover
50 Dime Lakers/Celtics Under
Michael Cannon
25 Dime Lakers
10 Dime Yankees
Karl Garrett
20 Dime Lakers
Derek Mancini
10 Dime Celtics
Chuck O'Brien
50 Dime Braves/Dodgers Under
Chris Jordan
200 Units Each
Reds
Cardinal -1.5
Rangers
Lakers
Lakers/Celtics Over
Bobby Maxwell
500 Units Celtics
100 Unit Braves
ASA
4* Lakers (-6) over Celtics
OK, I'll be the first to admit I'm in the minority on this bet as nearly every good handicapper I know will be on Boston. Yes, several obvious factors point towards Boston here whether it's the Zig-Zag theory, bounce back or extra motivation after the Game 1 loss but I'm not buying it. I've now watched Game 1 three times and I continue to see the exact same thing over and over. Boston looks like the same team that finished the last 54 games of the regular season just .500 not like the team that just eliminated Orlando.
“I know my team,’’ said Pierce. “I know we will bounce back in Game 2 with a lot better effort. I know we’ll put together a better game, next game.’’
What strikes me funny about this quote is this: IT'S FRICKING GAME 1 OF THE NBA FINALS AND YOU HAVE EXTRA REST BUT YET YOU DIDN'T GIVE 100% EFFORT? SERIOUSLY! I don't think it was an effort issue over just a better overall team that you don't match up well against. The Lakers looked long and athletic while the Celtics looked slow and old and that's not changing before Sunday.
I'd even go so far as to say that it looked to me as if the Lakers let off the gas in the 4th quarter with a 20-point lead so I think the final score could have been much worse had L.A. wanted it to be.
The Celtics were outplayed in nearly every aspect of the game. The were outrebounded by the Lakers 42-31. The Lakers shot 49% to the Celtics 43%. L.A. scored 16 second chance points to the Celts 0 and outscored Boston 48-30 in the paint. Pau Gasol dominated KG to the tune of 23-16 in points and 14-4 in rebounds! You might say Boston was handicapped with Ray Allen in foul trouble but he wasn't getting good looks when he was in the game and odds are Kobe will have him on the bench again in Game 2. The Celtics got fantastic contributions from their bench in the previous two series but last night they managed just 13 combined points.
Rondo has been extremely effect in the post season but the Lakers took away his penetration and turned him into a jump shooter which is not his forte. L.A. put Artest on Pierce and made him work his butt off to score 24 points. Garnett and Perkins struggled with the longer Gasol and Bynum. Kobe had his way with either Allen the Celts threw at him. I don't see any of that changing in Game 2 on Sunday. Kobe and Phil Jackson won't let the Lakers suffer a letdown and the Lakers will come to play this weekend. I'm contrarian here but trusting my eyes in this case and playing the Lakers!
3* NY Mets -105 over Florida
One MLB PICK on Sunday. All night games tomorrow so we'll have you check back at 4 PM CST on Monday.
Hisanori Takahashi was dominant in his first two starts of the season after success early in the year in a relief role. Takahashi allowed just ten hits and no runs in two starts at home but his first road start was troublesome last week in San Diego. In home appearances Takahashi owns a 2.00 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and he has also been dominant in day games with a 1.93 ERA. The Mets have also featured a very strong bullpen at Citi Field, featuring a 2.36 ERA.
New York is 21-9 in home games this season including 20-7 in the last 27 home contests. The Mets are 9-4 overall in the last 13 games and the home team has won six in a row in this series. In home games the Mets are batting .273 while Florida is hitting just .244 in road contests. Florida is just 6-10 in the last 16 games and after opening the season winning the first two road series, the Marlins have struggled away from the heat of their home ballpark.
Ricky Nolasco produces a great strikeout-to-walk ratio but the ERA and wins have not added up this season or last season. Nolasco owns a 4.57 ERA for the year and in his last three starts that number jumps to 7.71. Nolasco has given up eleven home runs in eleven starts and the Mets had some success against him earlier this season. In his last seven starts only once did Nolasco hold his opponent to fewer than three runs and he has only topped three strikeouts once in his last six starts.
Florida?s bullpen has worse numbers than the Mets this season but the biggest concerns for the Marlins come on offense. Only three times in the last eleven games has Florida topped three runs scored and in the last 21 games on the road Florida has topped five runs just once. The Mets have won seven in a row at home, out-scoring foes 37-11 and with a nearly even line on a fairly even pitching match-up the Mets look like a great play to complete the sweep. Look for Takahashi to rebound with another strong home start.
Nelly
1* Texas Rangers +125 over Tampa Bay Rays
Rich Harden owns a 5.33 ERA for the season but the Rangers are 8-3 in his starts this season. Texas is 4-1 in his home starts where he has a 3.70 ERA and his overall numbers have been hurt by making the majority of his starts on the road. In his last four home starts he has allowed three or fewer runs in each game and Texas is 4-0 in those games. The home team is 9-2 in the last eleven meetings in this series as Texas has now won seven of the last eight in Arlington against the Rays. Texas has been a dominant home team at 20-9 and including 19-7 in the last 26 home games. Tampa Bay owns an amazing road record but the Rays look like a team to fade as their hot start was simply too good. Tampa Bay is 4-8 in the last twelve games and value has also caught up to Tampa Bay. Matt Garza has been a streaky pitcher in his career and he is 0-3 in his last three starts and Tampa Bay is 1-4 in his last five starts. Garza has good numbers for the year but he has not been dominant and Tampa Bay has not always provided strong support for him, including scoring just twelve runs over his last five starts. In the last ten games the Texas bullpen has also out-performed the Rays with a very solid 3.30 ERA. Texas is batting .297 in the last ten games while the Rays are hitting just .254. The heat in Arlington appears to have hurt the Rays while Texas has been swinging hot bats and with a complete game from Tommy Hunter yesterday the bullpen is in great shape. Given the dominance Texas has displayed at home, fading the slumping Rays with a great home underdog price makes for a great play.
1* LA Lakers –5.5 over Boston Celtics
Boston brought good energy and played well in game 1 of the Finals but the game was not close for long and the Lakers pulled away with relative ease. Boston made only one three-point shot but they took just ten shots, and that was by design and Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were well defended and there were very few good looks on the perimeter. Boston did benefit from 36 free throw attempts, making 30 points from the line. The Lakers committed 15 turnovers and while Los Angeles shot 48 percent it was not one of the better offensive games Los Angeles has had thus far in the playoffs. Los Angeles dominated in the paint and that will be an advantage that Boston will not overcome. The Lakers had 48 points inside and Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were very efficient and effective. Kobe Bryant had a very complete game and he continues to prove that he is one of the all-time greats in big moments with a few key shots down the stretch to keep the game out of reach. Boston is not getting the defensive intensity that it had early in the playoffs while upsetting Cleveland and Orlando and the Lakers maintain a simply incredible record at home. Many are expecting a bounce-back from the Celtics but Boston played as well as it could in game 1 while still getting a ton of chances at the line. The Lakers are simply the better team as we knew at the outset of the playoffs, and Boston’s great playoff run has them overvalued in this match-up.
Bonus Pick 'UNDER 190.5' Boston at Los Angeles (unrated)
Game 1 just barely stayed 'under' on most lines and those playing the game right at the bell might have found a win with the 'over'. The total has been adjusted to near that closing number from game 1 but is well below the game 1 opener. Only five three-point shots were made in game 1 which might give some weight to banking on more scoring in game 2 but free throws slowed play considerably in game 1 in addition to adding 54 points to score. Game 1 would have stayed well 'under' if not for a huge 34-point outburst from the Lakers in the 3rd quarter and overall both teams shot a strong percentage. Look for a bit more defensive intensity from the Celtics to possibly shut down some of the inside scoring enjoyed by the Lakers in game 1. Boston will also look to find more open looks on the perimeter but more three-point shooting likely will help the 'under' as the shooting percentages will not be as strong as in game 1. Look for more low numbers in game 2.
Scott Rickenbach
6* Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Chicago
Don’t look now but the pressure is truly on the Blackhawks in this series! They are at home but have lost two straight and they know that a loss here means they go back to Philly and allow the Flyers an opportunity to wrap up the series on home ice where they have been so dominate in the post-season. Truly, the pressure is on Chicago here and yet the Flyers continue to get no respect in terms of the pricing of the games in this series. The Blackhawks remain a 2 to 1 favorite here in Game Five even though the Flyers very nearly won each of the two games played in Chicago. Philadelphia has proven to be just as fast up front as the Blackhawks. Philly has proven to be even more rugged and determined defensively. The Hawks continue to get very little production from their top line and Philadelphia defenseman Chris Pronger has done a great job on the Hawks Dustin Bfyuglien throughout this series. The Flyers special teams has been much better than that of the Hawks as Philly is 5 of 16 on the power play while the Blackhawks are just 1 for 9 on the power play and that lone goal was with a 5 on 3 advantage! Also, how about the poor puck handling of defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson of Chicago in Game Four? Simply put, the Hawks are making mistakes in this series and, as we’ve mentioned previously, the Flyers have looked just as strong as the heavily favored Blackhawks in all facets of the game! Between the pipes, Antti Niemi certainly hasn’t looked any better than Michael Leighton. Yes, Leighton played poorly in Game One of this series but look at what he’s done since then. Now, the Flyers goalie – and a former Blackhawk – enters tonight’s crucial Game Five with an 8-2 record and a 2.14 GAA in the post-season.
While Chicago is working through line changes and trying to find the right combinations to better attack this Philly team, the Flyers enter Game Five in Chicago absolutely confident with their line combos and they just want to keep doing what they’ve been doing ever since they staged their remarkable comeback from a 3-0 series deficit against the Bruins. The Flyers absolutely have the Hawks on their heels here and they have extra confidence from winning two straight games in the series and from knowing that they certainly played well enough in the first two games of this series to win either one. They enter the United Center with confidence and yet they are a +175 dog. We’ll take that…especially when we know this. When Philly is tied in a playoff series (at 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3), the Flyers are a perfect 5-0 (100%) the last three seasons! That includes 2-0 in this situation this season and we look for Philly’s remarkable ride to continue. Play Philadelphia on the money line as a 6* Regular Play selection
10* Boston Celtics (+) @ Los Angeles
Good teams respond in tough situations. The Celtics are 2-0 ATS this season (and 4-1 ATS the last three seasons) when trailing in a playoff series. Good teams respond after a poor effort. The Celtics are 8-4 ATS this season (and 16-9 ATS the last three seasons) after a loss by ten points or more. Good teams respond to an extra day of prep time. The Celtics are 8-5 ATS this season (and 29-17 ATS the last three seasons) when they are playing with two days of rest. Note that the Lakers, in comparison to all the above trends, are just 6-5 ATS this season when leading in a playoff series, 7-8 ATS when playing with two days of rest, and just 16-14 ATS after a win by ten points or more. As you can see, nothing too impressive there and, in Game One, we rode the Lakers to victory and we noted in our write-up the importance of the hunger.
As we noted Thursday, Los Angeles had a tremendous amount of motivation in that game as they had lost at home to the Celtics in February and, most importantly, they had lost in the NBA Finals to Boston two seasons ago. Now, after the way Game One played out, it’s the Celtics that have an edge in the all-important categories of motivation, determination, and grit! You will see a workmanlike approach from the Celtics defense in this one and look for assistant coach Tom Thibodeau to make the proper adjustments for the Boston defense to pull back the reigns on the Lakers offense in this one. The Celtics allowed the Lakers to make 48.7% of their shots in Game One. The last 8 times that Boston has done that, they’ve responded with a cover in the next game 6 of the 8 times. The hungry Celtics bounce right back here and we’ll grab the generous points in a situation where the C’s “A game” absolutely should be enough to keep this one very tight or even win it outright. Play Boston plus the points as a *10* Top Play Sunday!
6* Toronto vs New York Yankees Over
Brandon Morrow is 4-4 with a 6.00 ERA this season. He’s compiled a 1.58 WHIP and the base runners will get him in trouble in the homer-friendly Rogers Centre. Before coming up with a strong start against Tampa Bay in his most recent outing, note that Morrow had gone 1-2 with a 9.18 ERA in his last four starts. After compiling a 5.46 ERA in May, the Jays right-hander ended up with a 6.52 ERA in June. He’s been nothing special this season and one good start for him isn’t going to change our minds about his current level of performance on the mound. The Yankees struggled much more than we expected with lefties, Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil, so far in this series. However, the Yanks are 21-11 to the over when facing right-handed starters this season. Also, when the total is a 9 or 9.5 this season, the Yankees are 24-8 to the over. Both bullpens got a lot of extra work in yesterday’s 14-inning affair and that could be an issue for the Blue Jays with Morrow averaging only 5 innings per start this season.
As for the Yankees pitching situation, it’s a real concern with Javier Vazquez taking the mound. He’s 4-5 with a 6.06 ERA so far this season. Though he’s had some success in recent starts it’s come against weaker foes and/or struggling lineups. Vazquez enjoyed success against the Orioles and Mets recently but got pounded by the Twins. In fact, Vazquez has been pounded in 4 of his 5 road starts against American League foes this season. The Blue Jays have scored 5 runs or more in 21 of their last 32 games and they will bounce back after a quiet day at the plate yesterday. Neither pitcher has much of anything special in their repertoire of pitches and with the roof expected to be closed today due to rain in the Toronto area, the ball will carry very well in the ‘homer-dome’ where the Blue Jays continue to pound the long ball. Play OVER the total in Toronto as a *6* Regular Play selection.
6* Texas vs Tampa Bay Over
Tommy Hunter of the Rangers surprised a lot of people, including the Rays, yesterday as he fired a five-hitter against Tampa Bay. This was on the heels of a game Friday where Texas had combined with the Rays for 15 runs. Yesterday, the Rangers got six runs in the game – and the game was even 4-1 after two innings – but it just died. We have no qualms about coming right back with this selection today. That’s because the Rangers bats will continue to pound the ball at home. They love hitting here and it’s going to be another scorcher in Arlington today with temperatures around 100 degrees. Also, in addition to the Rangers staying hot at home today, the key will be that the Rays will “join the party” courtesy of facing Rich Harden of Texas. The Rangers right-hander is in a massive funk as he’s allowed 18 earned runs in his last 18.1 innings. Also, Harden has given up 32 hits and 14 walks in his last 23 innings. Yes, that equates to a WHIP of 2.00 for Mr. Harden since early May and he now faces a Rays lineup that has fared quite well against him in his career. Harden is 3-1 against Tampa Bay in his career but note the 4.94 ERA and the .282 BAA.
Note that the Rays game stayed under the total in Matt Garza’s last start but, prior to that, Tampa Bay was 5-2 to the over in Garza’s last 7 starts. Throughout his career, Garza has enjoyed pitching indoors in places like Minnesota (they had the Metrodome) and Tampa Bay (Tropicana Field is a dome). However, take him outdoors and he’s not as effective with an ERA that is nearly a full run higher compared to what he’s produced in a controlled environment. At Rangers Ballpark, Garza is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA in four career starts. Also, in his last two outings in May, the Rays right-hander allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits and 7 walks in just 11.1 innings of work. Like Harden, Garza’s current form equates to a WHIP that is right around a 2 and, in hitter-friendly Texas, too many baserunners can equate to big problems with the way the ball carries there. Yesterday’s game died after a great start, today’s won’t! The last three times the Rays were held to 2 runs or less in a game, their next game has flown over the total each time. A perfect 3-0 ATS run that we expect to continue here. Play OVER the total in Texas as a *6* Regular Play selection.
Wayne Root
Millionaire - Celtics +6
Mike Lineback
4* POD Philadelphia Phillies
4* Boston Celtics +6
Al DeMarco
15 Dime Philadelphia Phillies
5 Dime Los Angeles / Boston Over
Paul Leiner
50* Mariners -110
50* Phillies -140
25* Yanks -135
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Yankees -135 over Blue Jays
4 Units A's -125 over Twins
4 Units Celtics +6 over Lakers
3 Units Flyers +180 over Blackhawks
PPP
3% Celtics
Dwayne Bryant
Washington +110
Bronson Arroyo gets the ball for the Reds. He has made six road starts this season and only TWO of them were Quality Starts. Arroyo is sporting a 5.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the road. Several Nats batters have enjoyed success against Arroyo, including Josh Willingham (2-for-6, .333), Nyjer Morgan (2-for-6, .333), Ryan Zimmerman (4-for-13, .308), and Willie Harris (5-for-17, .294).
Craig Stammen toes the rubber for Washington and while his season numbers aren't very appealing (5.88 ERA, 1.49 WHIP), it's his work at home that gets my attention. In five starts at Nationals Park, Stammen owns a very respectable 3.94 ERA. But what impresses me much more than that is the 1.06 WHIP and .274 OBP in those home starts. Stammen just does not walk batters at home. In 32 innings pitched at Nationals Park this season, Stammen has walked ONE batter. That's right. ONE batter walked in 32 innings. That's HUGE. Another nice edge for Stammen and the Nats is that the Reds will be facing him for the first time. So if Stammen holds true to his home form, he should roll through the Reds lineup at least the first two times around.
Washington also has the edge in the pen. The Nationals own a 2.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home. Opponents are batting just .217 against them with a .308 OBP. The Reds' pen owns a 4.19 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the road. Teams are batting .274 against them with a .374 OBP.
Bottom line: We know both teams can hit, but the Nats have the edge in starting pitching and in the bullpen (based on home/road splits). And while they burned me earlier this week thanks to Cristian Guzman's inability to catch a fly ball in right field, I still feel they are an excellent value as a home dog today. Take Washington/Stammen over Cincinnati/Arroyo as my MLB Game of the Week play.
Lenny Del Genio
Celtics +6
Marlins
Sports Brokers Guaranteed Selections
NBA PLAYOFF PRIVATE PLAYERS CLUB TOTALS WINNER
Boston and LA Lakers OVER 190
Jeff Benton
30 Dime: ROCKIES -1½
10 Dime: Celtics-Lakers UNDER
Rockies (-1½ runs)
Do I really need to say anything else? This guy has been beyond ridiculous this season, and his overall numbers (10-1, 0.78 ERA) only tell part of the story. He’s given up a total of seven runs in his 11 trips to the mound covering 80 1/3 innings (including exactly zero runs and 11 hits in his last three starts covering 24 innings).
He has nearly as many strikeouts (70) as he does walks and hits surrendered (72), and he’s walked more than two batters in a game just once in his last eight starts. He’s allowed just one home run all season. And he’s been virtually unhittable on the road, going 6-1 with 0.52 ERA. In his last two roadies, Jimenez matched up against Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum and it wasn’t even a contest, as he gave up a total of five hits and five walks in 16 scoreless innings. The Rockies won both games by identical 4-0 scores.
Speaking of scores, here’s how dominant Jimenez has been: Even though the Rockies have averaged just 4.8 runs per game when Jimenez pitches (scoring four runs or fewer in five of his wins), all 10 of the right-hander’s victories this year have all been by more than one run! And that includes two easy wins over Arizona: 12-1 on April 27 and 7-3 on April 26. In those two contests, Jimenez gave up zero runs and eight hits and three walks while fanning eight in 14 innings (all four of the DBacks’ runs came against Colorado’s bullpen).
True, both of those victories against Arizona came at Coors Field. But as noted above, Jimenez is actually a better pitcher on the road than he is at home (not that the difference is very noticeable). And while Chase Field can be a house of horrors for most pitchers, it sure hasn’t been for Jimenez. Check out these numbers in his four career starts on Arizona’s home field:
2 runs, 17 hits, 14 walks, 32 strikeouts in 26 innings. I’ll do the ERA math for you: It works out to 0.69!
Colorado won three of those four games in Arizona; they’re 4-0 in Jimenez’s last four starts overall against Arizona; and for his career, Jimenez is 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA in six starts against Arizona.
Bottom line, guys: I don’t think I’m going out on a limb here when I say that Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher in baseball right now. And even though the law of averages say he’s coming back to earth at some point, I don’t think it’s going to be today, not against the DBacks (a team he’s dominated and a team that’s really struggling right now), not in Arizona (where he has absolutely thrived), and not against DBacks righty Rodrigo Lopez (who is 2-3 with a 4.31 ERA overall and 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA at home, and who was on the opposite end of that 7-3 contest against Jimenez two weeks ago in Colorado).
Lay the chalk with confidence.
Celtics-Lakers UNDER the total
First off, I issued a 10 Dime play on the UNDER in Game 1 of this series and settled for a push, even though I could’ve easily claimed a win (Kobe Bryant hit a meaningless 3-pointer in the final seconds to put the game at 191 total points, which was the closing number, but for much of the day the total was between 191½ and 192½).
Besides Kobe’s final dagger, the only thing that kept that came from coming even close to the posted total was an explosive third quarter in which the teams combined for 57 points. How much of an aberration was that 12-minute scoring outburst? In the other 11 quarters these teams have played this season, here were the combined point totals: 49, 50, 40, 40, 57, 44, 44, 28, 47, 44, 43. So only two of 12 quarters have featured more than 50 points, and only four of 12 quarters have featured more than 47 points.
If you watched Game 1, you know it was a very physical contest, and you can expect more of the same tonight. But you also can expect the refs to swallow their whistles more than they did on Thursday, when they called a whopping 54 fouls that led to 67 free throws. The teams combined to make 54 of those 67 foul shots (80.5%), so that means 28% of the points scored in Game 1 came from the charity stripe. That’s something that doesn’t figure to be repeated tonight, and if the refs do let things go, you won’t see as many players in foul trouble as in Game 1.
Meanwhile, you have to think Boston will play much tougher defense tonight. Prior to Thursday, the Celtics had had held eight of its previous nine opponents to 96 points or less (with six of those eight scoring 88 or less). In fact, Boston has allowed more than 100 points just five times in these playoffs. The previous four times it happened, the Celtics came back and played ferocious defense in the next contest, holding opponents to 86, 86, 87 and 84 points. Pretty consistent, no?
Finally, if you count Game 1 as an “under,” then these teams have stayed below the total in all three meetings this season. And going back to Game 3 of the 2008 NBA Finals, these teams have faced off six times at the Staples Center, and the UNDER cashed in five of those games, with final scores of 87-81, 97-91, 92-83, 87-86 and 102-89.
Additionally, the under is 24-6-2 in the Lakers’ last 32 games on Sunday, while Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall and 6-0 against teams from the Pacific Division.