Steve Budin
25 Dime - Texas A&M
Jeff Benton
25 Dime California
RAS
Pittsburgh pk
BEN BURNS
10* 2nd ROUND TOURNEY GOY - WISCONSIN BADGERS -4.5
9* TOTAL ANNIHILATION - PURDUE/TEXAS A&M UNDER 125.5
10* MAIN EVENT - ATLANTA HAWKS -3
9* BEST BET - INDIANA PACERS +4.5
9* TV TOW - BLAZERS/SUNS UNDER 208.5
10* DIVISIONAL GOY - ST. LOUIS BLUES
7* BLUE CHIP DUCKS/AVALANCHE - UNDER 5.5
Billy Coleman
4* Mich St +1
4* Xav/Pitt Under 135.5
3* GT +6.5
3* Mich St/ Mary Over 143
ATS LOCK CLUB
6 Units Maryland -1
5 Units Cal +6.5
5 Units Pitt +1
5 Units Texas A&M -1.5
KELSO
10 Units Hawks -3
10 Units Blazers +6
5 Unit Parlay
50 Units Texas A&M -1.5
10 Units Georgia Tech +6.5
10 Units Maryland -1
5 Unit Parlay
3 Units Missouri +6
3 Units Wisconsin -4.5
Eric Degarde
2* Gonzaga +7
Tim Trushel
20* Maryland
DR BOB
NCAA Analysis
Missouri (+5 1/2) over West Virginia
Missouri is a pretty solid team and it looks to me as if the line on this game is too high. My ratings favor the Mountaineers by just 2 1/2 points and half of West Virginia's victories over NCAA caliber teams were by 3 points or less. In 13 such games against NCAA caliber teams (not including tournament teams that made the tournament only because they won an automatic bid in a weaker conference), the Mountaineers were 9-4 straight up but only won 4 of those 13 games by more than 3 points. I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and a lean at +4 1/2 or +4.
Syracuse (-7) vs Gonzaga
Syracuse applies to a 35-7 ATS 2nd round situation, but Gonzaga appears to be an underrated team (as does the other WCC entry St. Mary's) and my ratings favor the Orange by just 5 1/2 points. With the line value favoring Gonzaga and the situation favoring Syracuse I'll be forced to pass.
Wisconsin (-4 1/2) vs Cornell
This is another game in which the line value and the situation are going opposite directions, as my ratings favor Wisconsin by just 2 points (using a rating system that factors in who teams perform against better teams) while Cornell applies to a negative 5-23-2 ATS round 2 situation. I'll pass.
Duke (-6) vs California
It's becoming pretty apparent that the Pac-10 may have been underrated heading into this tournament and my ratings actually rate California as a top 15 team. The Bears didn't fair too well against the good teams that they faced this season, but they were without their best all-around player Theo Robertson for games against Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico. The Bears played pretty well at Kansas, trailing by just 5 points in the final quarter of the game despite Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randall having a horrible game. I'm not jumping on the Bears here, as the line is smaller than I thought it would be and there just isn't enough line value (my ratings favor Duke by 5 1/2 points). I also see a potential problem for the Bears 3-point shooters against a Duke team that has allowed just 27.9% 3-pointers this season. Duke has a tendency to play particularly good defense against good offensive teams and Cal has the most efficient offense in the nation if you only include the games in which Robertson played. Tough game to call.
Pittsburgh (pick) over Xavier
I won Best Bets with both of these teams in round 1, but Xavier hasn't played as well against other good teams this season as they have overall. In fact, the Musketeers are 0-5 straight up against the best 5 teams that they've faced this season (Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Butler, and Temple) and Pittsburgh is in that class. Using all games this season for Xavier, and Pitt's games with Dixon and Brown (they both missed the first part of the season), I get pick. However, using only games against quality teams would favor the Panthers by 3 points. I'll lean with Pitt at -1 or better.
Ohio State (-6) over Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has lots of individual talent, so the Yellow Jackets are capable of competing against superior teams, as they've proven by going 2-3 straight up against Maryland and Duke, with a loss to Duke coming in overtime. Ohio State, however, has the best player on the court in Evan Turner and my ratings favor the Buckeyes by 6 1/2 points. That number is pretty close to the spread, but Georgia Tech applies to a negative 7-28 ATS round 2 situation and I'll lean with Ohio State at -6 points or less based on that trend.
Purdue (+1 1/2) vs Texas A&M
Purdue had been struggling without Robbie Hummel entering this tournament, but the Boilermakers played well against a pretty good Siena squad. My ratings favor Texas A&M by 1.2 points in this game and the line has gone from pick to A&M by 1 1/2 points. No value and no situation favoring either side so I'll pass.
Maryland (pick) over Michigan State
Michigan State didn't play well in round 1 against New Mexico State and the Spartans still appear to be an overrated team. MSU is just 12-20 ATS this season and they've particularly struggled in competitive games, going just 3-8 straight up and 2-9 ATS in games when favored by 4 points or less or getting points and 5-15 ATS this season against teams with a .500 or better win percentage. My ratings favor Maryland by 3 points in this game and I'll consider Maryland a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and as a lean at -1 1/2 or -2.
Fantasy Gametime Sports
100* Gonzaga
100* Missouri
100* Cornell
King Creole
2-TEAM Late Afternoon PARLAY in College Hoops from
3* TEXAS A&M AGGIES & 3* DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Conference-affiliated stuff
Both teams had big-rime 1ST ROUND wins of 15 or more points... which puts us squarely on a couple of pertinent Systems. And the SECOND round of the NCAA Tourney is ALL about the favorites... particularly for teams out of the ACC and BIG 12 Conferences respectively.
8-1 ATS since 2002: All ACC second-round favorites who are a #1 SEED in the Tourney (DUKE). In the last 5 years, these teams are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS!
6-1 ATS since 2001: In ALL Tourney games, ACC favorites of 10 < points (DUKE) facing a PAC 10 opponent (Cal).
26-11-1 ATS: All BIG 12 second-round teams (TEXAS A&M).... Favorites of 10 < points have gone an amazing 17-4 ATS (A&M).... and 9-1 ATS playing off an ATS win (A&M).
In the last 8 seasons in ALL NCAA Tournament games, BIG 12 favorites (A&M) are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS when facing a BIG 10 opponent (Purdue).
Applicable Systems:
12-1 ATS since 2001: All SECOND-ROUND favorites of 7 < points... as a #3 or better SEED... when they won their Conference Tournament (DUKE).
4-0 ATS since 2006: All SECOND-ROUND favorites of points (DUKE).
12-3 ATS since 1998: All SECOND-ROUND teams playing off a SU win of 15 > points in a game in which they were a favorite of -4 < points (A&M). In the last 5 years, these teams have gone 6-1 ATS.
8-1 ATS last 3 years: All SECOND-ROUND 'short' favorites of only -3 or less points (A&M).
SEED Tendencies:
#5 SEED teams (TEXAS A&M) are 12-3 ATS since 2003 when playing a #4 SEED (Purdue) in the 2nd Round... and a PERFECT 3-0 ATS when installed as FAVORITES.
#8 SEED teams (California) are 1-7 ATS since 2002 when playing off a SU win in a game in which they were an UNDERDOG or 'pick em'....
MR EAST
NCAAB SUNDAY GOODIE BAG
CORNELL vs WISCONSIN
3 UNITS: UNDER 121.5
Post-season tournaments leave a trail as to tendencies, and how they change from the regular season, and even post-season conference tournaments. Taking a snapshot of the trail they leave behind offers value in given areas, and a place and time to exploit these situations as they arise. I have years of data and have found many places where these situations can be taken advantage of and will post them as they arise. This game fits into that area. UNDER gets the call.
Evan Altemus
3 Units: Cornell +4.5 vs Wisconsin
Wisconsin was able to escape with a win against Wofford in the 1st round, but I don't think they'll have similar luck in this game. Cornell has probably the most cohesive team of any left in the tournament, since seven players are seniors with tournament experience. This team plays together better than any other team in college basketball because of their experience with each other. They also have some size down low which means Wisconsin won't have an overwhelming edge with their big guys. Wisconsin also has to prepare to for the Big Red in only a few days, a very tough task for the system that they run. With the size of this point spread, Cornell only has to keep the game close in order to cover the point spread. There is no reason to believe that they will get blown out by Wisconsin after dismantling and dominating a very good Temple team. Look for the Big Red to challenge for the outright win.
Teddy June
10* Xavier
10* California
Sportsbetsnow
2 units Missouri +6
2 units Cor/Wis UNDER 125
Will Cover
4* Maryland -1
3* Cornell +4.5