Jimmy Boyd
3* Boston Under 189.5
5* Atlanta
3* Phillies
BIG AL
3* Phillies -143
3* Braves -125
Passing NBA
ATS Baseball Lock Club
4 Units Texas (-120)
3 Units Minnesota/NY Yankees OVER 10.5
3 Units Atlanta (-120)
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Chi. Cubs
Time: 2:20 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) OHLENDORF, R vs. (L) LILLY, T
Play: Pittsburgh (ML +219)
The Cubs are huge favorites as they look to avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep at Wrigley against the lowly Pirates. Considering that Chicago is not even a .500 team at home, the number in this game is simply too high. Ross Ohlendorf is making his second start off the DL and he was not very sharp in his return. But Ted Lilly has yet to find his form after getting off to a late start with his own injury issues. Lilly is getting by, but his K/IP ratio is way down from the norm, and he's therefore somewhat overpriced for this game. The Pirates have owned the Cubbies so far this season, and road dogs trying to complete the series sweep are a robust +740 so far this year. Make no mistake, the Cubs deserve to be the favorite in this game. But given the current team form and the fact their ace lefty is not displaying peak form, there's all kinds of value in catching the Bucs at such long odds. I'll gun for the big dog winner with the Pirates.
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Matchup: Houston at San Francisco
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MYERS, B vs. (L) ZITO, B
Play: Houston (ML +165)
Barry Zito has been terrific for the Giants, and I'm really not reading much into the 7BB he issued last time out. But Zito will likely have to be at his best today to beat even the lowly Astros. Houston sends out Brett Myers, who hasn't been bad at all lately. The big key here, however, is that the already offensively challenged Giants may well have to go with a patchwork lineup for the series finale. Pablo Sandoval got hurt on Friday, and I doubt he'll be in action today. Mark DeRosa is banged up, Benjie Molina is due for day off behind the dish, and closer Brian Wilson had to throw 39 pitches in his Saturday save, likely rendering him inactive for this game. The Astros are a road dog looking to avert the series sweep, and playing on those sides has been a big winner so far this season. Good spot for a gamble on the big dog, so the Astros are my choice today.
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Dave Cokin
Matchup: Boston at Orlando
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Orlando (-6.5 -110)
The Celtics are not going to have a letdown off the big series win over the top-seeded Cavaliers. This team has too much veteran poise to fall victim to that tendency. But I like the Magic to get off to the good start in this series. Orlando has been awesome in the playoffs so far, winning all eight of their games, most of them in spectacularly easy fashion. The Magic are obviously the fresher team coming off a much less taxing series than the Celtics, and I think Orlando matches up well with this opponent as well. I believe the number for Game One is a bit on the short side and the Magic know full well they can't afford to let the Celtics get hold of the home court advantage. Look for a strong statement by the higher seed in the opener. Go with the Magic minus the points.
Rocketman
5* Yankees
4* San Diego
3* Atlanta
3* Philadelphia
Rocketman
4* SD Padres
5* Yankees
4* San Diego
3* Atlanta
3* Philadelphia
JB Sports
3* Orlando
Lenny Del Genio
Orlando
Atlanta
Erin Rynning
Boston/Magic Under 189
ATS LOCK CLUB
4 Units Orlando
Jeff Benton
20 DIME: ORLANDO MAGIC
You think I’m going to go against a team that’s won 14 games in a row (by an average of nearly 17 points per game), including all eight of its contests in these playoffs?
You think I’m going to go against a team that’s cashed in 13 of those 14 wins, including the last seven in a row?
You think I’m going to go against a team that just swept a 53-win Atlanta Hawks squad, posting four double-digit victories by a combined 101 points (setting a record for the largest point differential in a seven-game playoff series)?
You think I’m going to go against a team that’s won 17 of its last 18 home games (13-4-1 ATS) – including its last 11 consecutively (8-2-1 ATS) – a team that’s beating opponents by better than 12 ppg on its own floor this season?
You think I’m going to go against a team that’s 42-8 SU over the last four months, with a ridiculous 28 double-digit wins during this stretch?
Finally, you think I’m going to go against a team that’s had six full days to rest up an opponent today that A) just finished a mentally and physically grueling six-game series against LeBron James and the Cavaliers; and B) lost to the Magic in a seven-game Eastern Conference series last spring, including losing Game 7 at home by 19 points?
Look, I realize the Magic’s first two opponents (Charlotte and Atlanta) aren’t in the Celtics’ league when it comes to talent or playoff experience. I also acknowledge that because of what Orlando has done so far in the postseason that we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread here. Doesn’t matter. You don’t make money in this business fading teams that have won 14 in a row and 42 of their last 50 games. You don’t make money in this business fading teams that have cashed in 13 of 14 games overall and 13 of 18 at home.
No, I’m not going to predict the Magic will score their third straight playoff sweep – Boston is too good to let that happen. However, it doesn’t take an NBA expert to see that Orlando has been the best team in the playoffs to this point, and it’s not even close. So why go against them?
As for the matchups on the floor, consider this: While Boston didn’t have All-Star forward Kevin Garnett in last year’s conference semifinal playoff series, the Magic didn’t have floor leader Jameer Nelson. Nelson (20.5 ppg in the playoffs) has made all difference for Orlando this spring, and I’m talking about on both ends of the court. Yes, Boston point guard Rajon Rondo completely destroyed the Cavaliers in the last round, but Cleveland doesn’t have anybody on its roster who’s as good as Nelson. Trust me: The days of 18-rebound and 20-plus assist games are gone for Rondo – there’s just no way that’s happening against Nelson.
Bottom line: Obviously, I made a lot of money backing Boston in the last round against Cleveland (my last three plays in that series were winners with the Celts in Games 2, 5 and 6). But I also cashed in the final three Magic-Hawks blowouts. And the simple fact is the Celtics were a bad matchup for the Cavaliers – just as the Magic are a bad matchup for Boston (Orlando has won five of the last six meetings, going 4-2 ATS).
Simply put, I’m not about to stand in front of the Magic freight train until someone proves they can stop them. Lay the chalk with the home team.
KIKI SPORTS
1 unit Orlando Magic -6.5
2 units St. Louis -135
3 units Arizona +120
1 unit Seattle/ Tampa Bay UNDER 7
Craig Davis
50* S.F. Giants -1.5
20* Magic
10* K.C. Royals
Dr. Bob
3* ORLANDO (-6) over Boston
The Magic are the best team in the NBA based season record, season rating and current rating and Boston is actually due for a bit of a letdown after knocking off #1 seeded Cleveland. Orlando is more than a one man team and the Celtics will have a tough time containing a Magic squad that can beat you inside and out offensively while possessing the league's best defensive player in Dwight Howard. Orlando applies to a 23-2 ATS subset of a 44-12 ATS game 1 situation and the line is more than fair. I'll take Orlando in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 1/2 or -8 points. Play Strength: 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -8
igz1 sports
3* Philadelphia -140
3* Pittsburgh +210