Ben Burns
East Conf GOW - Atlanta -9.5
Big Chalk - Marlins
Scott Delaney
10 Dime Bucks
I'm sorry, as much as I've seen the Hawks do some great things in this series, I don't know if they deserve to lay this kind of number to a scrappy club like Milwaukee.
Quite frankly, I believe the pressure lay solely on Atlanta, as it wasn't expected to be here, in Game 7 against the Bogut-less Bucks. But the Hawks have been less-than spectacular at times, while Milwaukee has proved the doubters wrong.
So with everything on the line, and the Bucks able to come out loose and with a nothing-to-lose attitude, you should see them as the more comfortable team. The Hawks will be uptight.
This is for everything, and with the season on the line, I have to take the points with the Bucks here.
Al DeMarco
10 Dime play on Los Angeles minus the points at home against Utah. As I release this play at 5:30 Pacific Sunday morning, the Lakers are -7 everywhere here in Vegas and offshore. For this contest, I bought down the 1/2 point on Los Angeles, making the Lakers -6 1/2, and I suggest you buy the insurance as well.
5 Dime play on the Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 Runs at Baltimore with Josh Beckett and Kevin Millwood the scheduled starters. Specify both pitchers as this play is predicated on each taking their turn today. FYI - I got the Red Sox at +110 on the Run Line in this one.
I'm seeking a 5th straight NBA winner today, but it won't be on Atlanta-Milwaukee as I'm not touching that Game 7 match-up as I explain in today's Free Pick Video Report (which will be available by 10 AM Eastern).
Instead I'm heading out west to the Staples Center and backing the Lakers, who have won 14 in a row at home versus the Jazz.
Los Angeles-Utah is another 10 dime release, a play equal to my 10 dime winners on the Jazz Friday over Denver and the Spurs over Dallas on Thursday.
I cap the Sunday card by heading back to the diamond for another Run Line release in the American League on the Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 run at Baltimore. I'm 7-3 in baseball this season, including 5-2 with Run Line plays.
Whenever you've got two teams playing on short rest opening a new series - both of whom are coming off emotional victories - I'll generally side with the one playing at home. And when that home team has reeled off 14 straight victories against the visitor on its home floor, like Los Angeles has against Utah at the Staples Center, the choice is even easier to make.
The playoffs are all about match-ups. Utah enjoyed an edge in the match-up department against its first-round foe, Denver, despite missing Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko, because the Nuggets were soft in the middle to begin with and not particularly deep on the wings. The Jazz enjoy no such advantage versus Los Angeles.
The Lakers struggled against Oklahoma City in Round One because of the match-up problems offered by the Thunder's athleticism and ability to run with them, particularly in the backcourt where Russell Westbrook was a headache all series long. They will not have similar problems against Utah, however.
The Jazz played great ball against Denver, averaging 110.5 points a game on 50.7% shooting. They're not going to shoot that well against Los Angeles and you have to question just how much this injury-depleted team has left - especially with Deron Williams bothered by a bruised elbow suffered late in Friday's win against the Nuggets.
Yes, the Lakers have their own injury concern with Andrew Bynum questionable with a knee injury, but his availability being in doubt is nothing new for them as he's been in and out of the lineup most of the season. Plus I've always maintained they've been a better team when Pau Gasol slides over to the middle and Lamar Odom comes off the bench to start in Bynum's absence. It was with that lineup that Los Angeles played its best ball down the homestretch of the regular season.
Take a look at what happened when these two met during the regular season this year:
April 2 - Los Angeles rolled 106-92 at home. Bynum was out, but Odom led the way with 26 points and 10 boards. Kobe added 25 and Gasol came within an assist of a triple-double with 14 points and 16 boards. And the Jazz - who had won 8 of 10 entering the contest - lost despite 20 points and 18 rebounds from Carlos Boozer and 20 points and 10 assists from Williams.
February 10 - Los Angeles won 96-81 at Utah, snapping the Jazz's nine-game winning streak, despite Kobe missing the game. Odom again led the way with 25 points and 11 rebounds. Gasol scored 22 and grabbed 19 boards while blocking five shots. And Jordan Farmer chipped in with 18 in place of the injured Bryant. Bynum was out again as well. For Utah, Boozer and Williams scored 11 apiece and Kirilenko led the way with 17.
December 12 - Utah actually won 102-94 at home, snapping LA's 11-game winning streak. But keep in mind Kobe broke his finger the night before and was also struggling with a stomach bug. He shot just 7 for 24 from the field and finished with 16 points. Gasol did his best with 16 points and 20 boards as again the Jazz had no answer for him. Williams led the Jazz with 21 points and 11 assists.
December 9 - Los Angeles won its 10th straight overall, rolling 101-77 at home as Kobe had 27, Gasol scored 19 with 12 rebounds, and Artest added 17 points. The Lakers scored 19 in a row while outscoring the Jazz 28-6 in the decisive fourth quarter. Odom scored 7 points and grabbed 10 boards off the bench. Williams and Boozer combined for 28 points to pace Utah.
That's a brief capsule summary of how the season series played out and it shows again how the Lakers dominated in every game - winning once with Kobe out and losing once the night after he got injured. Gasol and Odom owned Utah, who struggled despite strong performances from Williams and Boozer in every contest.
With Williams at less than 100% for today's opener, and Derek Fisher seemingly always playing his best ball against his former team, my concerns about containing the Utah point guard, who averaged 25.8 points and 11.3 assists against Denver, are somewhat mitigated. Plus Phil Jackson has options against Williams as he has Shannon Brown and even Bryant as defensive options.
The Jazz got outstanding contributions from Wesley Matthews and C.J. Miles in Round One, but the Lakers have plenty of wing players to match-up with them, and again, Utah has no answer for Gasol in the middle.
Los Angeles beat the Jazz in the 2008 conference semifinals in six games and last year in the first round in five games. Among the 14 straight wins at home have been six straight in the postseason. Today the toll of upsetting Denver leaves Utah drained and the Lakers pull away late for a comfortable 11 point win.
For Sunday's baseball play, I feel it's time to get on the Red Sox bandwagon as the calendar has flipped to May and it's Josh Beckett's time to shine. Boston is 4-1 in his starts this season, but it certainly hasn't been because of his outstanding pitching as Beckett posted a 7.22 ERA in the month of April. But his earned run average last year in April was exactly the same and he then proceeded to go 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA in his next 13 starts, a stretch that earned him the big contract he recently signed.
Beckett is 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in eight career starts at Baltimore with the most recently being a seven-inning shutout performance last August 1 in which he scattered just six hits.
The Orioles counter with Kevin Millwood today, and although he's pitched well, their lack of offensive punch has resulted in a 1-4 record behind their ace.
Baltimore hasn't swept Boston in a series of at least three games at home since 1998 and I don't see that steak coming to an end today as the Red Sox take it 5-2.
Craig Davis
75 Dime Minnesota -1.5
This one is just flat out too easy, and I'm not holding back. I'm jumping all over this easy money winner in this afternoon's bases and you should too. The Minnesota Twins, with or without C Joe Mauer, will completely devastate David Huff and the Cleveland Indians, just like they did in their first meeting of the year. Right now this three-game series stands at one game apiece after Minnesota took Game 1 Friday night, 9-3 and Cleveland bounced back Saturday for a 5-4 extra innings win. But today, I expect nothing less than a one-sided affair as the Indians simply won't have an answer for Francisco Liriano.
Seriously, have you watched this guy pitch lately? He's absolutely unhittaole, recording 23 straight scoreless innings (over the span of the last three games), lowering his ERA to below 1 (0.93) and his WHIP to 0.97. In fact, the only reason he didn't dominate his first outing of the year was the high number of free passes he handed out (5 walks). Since then Liriano has settled into his groove, walking just five in his last three starts combined. So, 5 walks in his first game matches his entire total for the last three games put together. Needless to say, he's dialed in right now and I'm not sure there's a pitcher in baseball who is hotter than he is. Just listen to these last three games:
April 15 --- an 8-0 win vs. Boston --- 7 IP, 4 hits, 0 ERs, 2 BBs, and 8 Ks.
April 21 --- a 6-0 win vs. Cleveland (with Huff as his opponent, mind you) --- 8 IP, 6 hits, 0 ER, 2 BBs, and 6 Ks.
April 27 --- a 2-0 win at Detroit --- 8 IP, 4 hits, 0 ERs, 1 BB, and 10Ks
An impressive resume, to say the least. And that's not counting his first start of the season in which, although he didn't get the decision, the Twins won the game, 4-3. In that game Liriano allowed only 3 ERs in 6 innings of work and the bullpen came on to do the rest. Liriano has a career 3.47 ERA vs. Cleveland and if his last start vs. the Tribe is any indication of what we're going to see today, Cleveland is in for a long afternoon... especially after beating them yesterday in extra innings. The Indians are also hitting just .207 vs. leftiees this year, and the last time I checked Liriano was a southpaw. Expect at least 8 quality innings out of him yet again today.
As for Cleveland, they send lefty David Huff to the hill where the last time he faced Minnesota he was roughed up for 4 ERs in 6 innings of work, not to mention the fact he allowed a career-high 6 walks in that game. Okay, so he's not doing as badly as I honestly thought he'd do at this point in the season, but his season ERA is a little deceptive as he's getting credit for what he did over a month ago. His last two starts have been forgettable, allowing 9 combined earned runs in 11 1/3 innings of work. Vs. Minnesota, Huff has just two career wins and an ERA up near 6, which is exactly what he did in his last outing (a few weeks ago in Minnesota) vs. the Twins... 6 IP, 4 ER. Minnesota is actually hitding better against lefties (.275) than righties (.254) on the road this year, and considering they just saw Huff not too long ago, I have a feeling they are about to open up the flood gates early.
Minnesota is 21-6 in their last 27 as a listed favorite and 9-4 in their last 13 on the road and 11-3 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record. My point being... they beat bad teams no matter where they play. The Indians, on the other hand, are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. a lefty starter, 9-23 in their last 32 vs. a pitcher who has a WHIP under 1.15, and 1-4 in their last 5 when Huff starts and he's the underdog. Twins mop up the floor with Cleveland today and chase Huff early. Twins take the series while Liriano wins game #4 on the season.
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: LA Lakers
5 Dime: Jazz-Lakers Under
Lakers
The NBA playoffs have always been about matchups, and the fact of the matter is while the Lakers didn’t match up very well against the Thunder in the first round, they match up perfectly against Utah. And history tells us so.
Going back to the 2006 season, the Lakers and Jazz have faced off 24 times – including playoff series each of the last two years – and Los Angeles is 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS during this stretch. Stretch it back to 2005, and the Lakers are riding a 14-game home winning streak against the Jazz (11-3 ATS).
This year, Los Angeles won three of four against Utah, and here were the final scores of those three wins: 101-77 at home (as a 10 ½-point favorite); 96-81 on the road (as a 5½-point underdog and without Kobe Bryant) and 106-92 at home (as a 4½-point favorite exactly one month ago).
In fact, during L.A.’s current 18-6 surge against Utah, 15 of the 18 wins have been double-digit routs, and only one of was by fewer than seven points. The Lakers’ average margin of victory in those 15 wins? 15.4 points per game!
And keep in mind that in the vast majority of the recent meetings between these two, Utah had the services of starting center Mehmet Okur and scoring forward Andrei Kirilenko – in fact, this year, Okur played in all four meetings, scoring in double figures three times; Kirlenko played in one of the games and scored 17 points in a 15-point loss in Los Angeles. Well, Okur is out for the season after blowing out his Achilles in Game 1 against Denver, while Kirilenko is highly doubtful after missing 15 straight games and 21 of the last 23 with a calf injury.
Why is L.A. so successful against the Jazz? Because it even with Okur on the floor, the Jazz cannot handle the Lakers’ frontcourt size with Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. And with Carlos Boozer being forced to shift from his power forward spot to the low post for the majority of the time, the Jazz are facing TWO mismatches: Boozer against Bynum (it’s no contest because Boozer just isn’t physical enough) and Paul Milsap against Gasol.
And I haven’t even mentioned the nightmare that game-planning for Kobe is for Utah. Byrant averages 26.1 ppg in his career (regular-season only) against the Jazz. In three games this year against the Jazz, he put up 22.7 points and 6 rebounds per game, and in last year’s playoff series – won by L.A. in five games – Bryant tallied 24, 26, 38 and 31 points in the four victories.
Bottom line: I know the tendency in Game 1 will be to side with the Jazz, who did a tremendous job in wiping out the Nuggets in six games, while the Lakers struggled in their six-game series win over Oklahoma City (with only one of those five contests resulting in a Lakers blowout). But as I mentioned above, the Thunder were a tough draw for L.A. And as I mentioned time and again in that Jazz-Nuggets series, Utah benefited from a massive coaching mismatch with Jerry Sloan annihilating Denver interim coach Adrian Dantley (filling in for the ill George Karl).
Well, that coaching mismatch won’t exist today. Instead, the only mismatch is the one you’ll see on the actual court, and the Lakers will once again score another double-digit victory. Lay the chalk with confidence.
Jazz-Lakers UNDER
Might seem crazy to be playing a sizeable favorite and the under, but two factors point to this being a low-scoring contest. The first is situational. This is a very tough turnaround spot for both teams, as each went down to the wire to close out their respective series on Friday, then each had to hop on a plane for a long trip to Los Angeles.
Utah and L.A. had to go six games to put away Denver and Oklahoma City, respectively, and all the games were extremely hard fought and physical with many going down to the wire. So to have just 24 hours to rest up for (let alone game plan for) this Game 1 is a tall order.
As for the second factor, it’s historical. These teams stayed under the total in all four regular-season meetings, plus the final three playoff matchups last year. That’s seven straight “unders” in this rivalry. Additionally, the Lakers have been dealing with inflated totals for quite some time now, as the oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that this has become a very defensive-minded club. To wit, L.A. is on “under” runs of 7-2 at home, 19-9 as a favorite, 20-7 as a playoff favorite, 24-9 against Northwest Division teams and 37-18-2 on Sunday.
Throw in the fact that the four regular-season Jazz-Lakers contests had combined totals 178, 196, 177 and 198, and this total being in excess of 200 points is completely unjustified, especially given the aforementioned situational factors. Play it low.
Anthony Redd
25 Dime - Hawks (1st Half)
25 Dime - Hawks
25 Dime - Jazz/Lakers Under
Karl Garrett
20 Dime - Utah Jazz
10 Dime - Milwaukee Brewers
CHRIS JORDAN
100♦ SUNDAY TRIFECTA
CLEVELAND INDIANS
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
JAZZ/LAKERS UNDER
KIKI SPORTS
2 Units LA Angels+110
1 Unit Arizona +140
1 Unit NY Mets -140
1 Unit Oakland +140
1 Unit Kansas City +130
Stephen Nover
50 Dime - Lakers/Utah Under
Jimmy Boyd
5* Lakers
4* Mets Under 9
3* Tampa Bay Rays
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Jazz +7
3 Units Detroit -120
3 Units Texas +105
Billy Coleman
5* Lakers -7
Erin Rynning
20* LA Lakers Under 202
David Malinsky
4* KANSAS CITY First Half +125 over TAMPA BAY
Zach Greinke has not won a game yet, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with his stuff – a 2.56 ERA over 31.2 innings, with a 1.11 WHIP and 27 K’s, is right where he should be. Over his last two outings he has allowed only two runs, not being scored on in 13 of the 14 innings that he worked, with 13 K’s vs. only nine base-runners allowed. So we can begin to invest in a “results correction” for him today, especially with the Royals bringing some confidence to the Trop after winning the last two games in this series. What we can not do is back them to win the whole game. For while we will rarely play any road underdog when the closer carries a fatigue rating, when Joakim Soria is not available full-game bets on Kansas City becomes a dead zone category. Soria will not pitch today, but that is not an issue for us – our ticket will be cashed long before the latter stages come around.
Note not only Greinke’s excellent current form, but how well he has controlled this lineup. Key left-handers Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are a combined 7-40 with no home runs and 14 K’s. B. J. Upton is 2-10 with four K’s. And Evan Longoria does not have a hit over 10 tries, striking out twice. We can back him with confidence here.
Meanwhile the 2-1/3.68 of Wade Davis helps to bring us this favorable underdog return, and while Davis is a decent prospect, he has labored much more than the base numbers show, with 13 W’s in 22 innings and at least 17.5 PPI in three of his four starts. He needed 95 pitches to only get through five innings against Oakland in his last outing, and is carrying more of a price tag here than he has earned.