JB Sports
3* Phoenix
IGZ1 SPORTS
4* Lakers / Suns Over 219
3* Tampa Bay -1.5
Bobby Maxwell
300 Units Lakers
King Creole
2* LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2.5
As the series shifts to Phoenix, the Suns have been installed as short home favorites on Game Three... with an extremely high Over / Under line to boot. That's the first area that we queried in the Playbook NBA post-season database.
0-5-1 ATS since 03: All Playoff GAME THREE home favorites of 6 points.
Stepping back to include ALL Playoff games, we come up with this System based on the OU line:
3-15 ATS: All Playoff home teams (Suns) vs a fellow DIVISION opponent (LAKERS)... when the OU line is 218 > points. Since the 2003 season, these hosts have gone 0-4 ATS.
The first two games of this series were ugly for the host Suns. They lost Game One 128 to 107.... and Game Two 124 to 112.
1-6 ATS since 06: All Playoff GAME THREE home teams (Suns) in Rounds 2,3, or 4 playing off BB SU and ATS double-digit losses. If these hosts are favored by < 7 points, the results have gone 0-4 ATS.
Both teams came off PERFECT 4-game SWEEPS in their previous Playoff round.
6-1 ATS: All Playoff GAME THREE teams playing off BB ATS wins (LAKERS)... who won their last Playoff series 4 games to ZERO.
0-4 ATS: All Playoff GAME THREE teams playing of BB SU losses (Suns)... who won their last Playoff series 4 games to ZERO.
LA comes in as the #1 Seed in the Western Conference. Phoenix comes in as the #3 Seed.
5-1 ATS: All Playoff GAME THREE #1 Seeds (LAKERS)... versus a #3 Seed (Suns).
A look at the Day of the Week also puts us on the right side...
2-10 ATS: All Playoff SUNDAY home teams (Suns) versus a DIVISION opponent (LAKERS).... in Rounds 3 or 4.
Let's run a System for the 'short' line....
2-12 ATS: All WESTERN CONFERENCE Round Three home favorites of 3 < points (Suns). Since the 2001 season, these teams have gone 1-9 ATS.
BIG AL
Parlay of Year
Phoenix -2.5
Phoenix Under 219
Toronto/AZ Over
Baltimore
Seattle
BOB BALFE
Pittsburgh Pirates +127
Zach Duke finally showed up this season against the Phillies, beating Halladay a few nights back. Atlanta is not a good road team and the Pirates should put up enough runs behind great pitching from Duke to win today's game and getting money. Take the Pirates.
Don Wallace Sports
4* Phoenix -2
4* Over 219
David Banks
Lakers/Suns Under 218.5
Atlanta -135
Florida -130
NY Yankees -135
Dave Cokin
Matchup: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Time: 1:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MEDLEN, K vs. (L) DUKE, Z
Play: Atlanta (ML -135)
Kris Medlen doesn't look very imposing, but he's showing you shouldn't judge a book by its cover. Though listed at only 5'10" and maybe shorter than that, Medlen throws hard and I really like his bulldog mentality. There may be question about his durablility, that's not much of a concern right now. Medlen has looked good in his two starts since stepping into the Atlana rotation for the injured Jair Jurrjens, and he's going to make it tough for manager Bobby Cox to send him back to the bullpen once Jurrjens returns. The Braves are rolling right now and have a good chance to get some good stuff done against Zach Duke, and the Pirates probaly cannot stay with Atlanta if it turns into any kind of slugfest. I'll ride the hot hand and back Medlen and the Braves.
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Matchup: Detroit at L.A. Dodgers
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) PORCELLO, R vs. (R) KURODA, H
Play: Detroit (ML +150)
Rick Porcello was expected to take another step forward after a fine rookie campaign. But things have not worked out at all well so far for the highly touted Tiger righty. Nevertheless, I think he's worth taking a gamble on today. Porcello throws a hard, sinking two-seamer and the idea is to try and lay off that pitch and make him rely on his secondary stuff. That is not so easy for teams that have not seen him before, and Porcello had loads of success in Interleague action last season. I'm going to take my chances that he can contain the Dodgers today. Hiroki Kuroda is pitching good ball for LA, but he has struggled in his prior dealings with the AL. Also, road dogs playing to avoid a three-game sweep are still producing very solid dividends for the year, connecting at a 50% clip which means big profits factoring in the price. The Tigers will probably have to do without leadoff hitter Austin Jackson today, so they're a bit shorthanded, but I still believe they're worth the risk at the substantial odds. Let's go with Detroit to register the upset today.
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Matchup: L.A. Lakers at Phoenix
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: L.A. Lakers (+3 -110)
Phoenix is back home and the Suns are obviously in dire need of a win to stay in the hunt with the Lakers. They played well for three quarters in Game Two, but LA just pretty much tossed them aside in the final quarter. Home court may help the Suns some, but regardless of the site, this is not a good physical matchup for Phoenix. They just don't have the size inside to deal with Odom and Gasol, they are not a good defensive team, and I feel they will have to juggle their lineup today because of some horrendous play by a couple guys they need to produce. I don't see a letup by the Lakers. All they've really done so far is hold serve, and with Boston en route to a very easy series win over Orlando, you know the last thing the Lakers want is to be extended by this opponent. I just cannot see Phoenix being favored against what I believe to be a superior Lakers entry, so I'm grabbing the available points with the LA side.
Scott Rickenbach
8* Cleveland / Cincinnati Over
A mild, sunny afternoon is expected in Cleveland this afternoon. Additionally, two starting pitchers who both lack dominating stuff (to say the least) are squaring off on the mound this afternoon. Also, the Indians have gone over the total in 4 straight games and 12 of their last 16 games! As for the Reds, they’ve gone over the total in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 games. Cincinnati has recorded 119 hits in their last 11 games, a consistent stretch that has seen the Reds average nearly 11 hits per game. Cincy has to be happy about getting a third straight match-up with an Indians pitching staff that is struggling mightily. Cleveland has given up 116 hits in their last 11 games. Also, the Indians have allowed six runs or more in five straight games. At home with a total of 9 or 9.5 this season, the Indians are 4-1 to the over. As for the Reds, they are 4-2 to the over this season when they are on the road and are a small favorite of up to -125.
Homer Bailey of the Reds has a 5.21 ERA so far this season. David Huff has a 5.36 ERA this season. Huff is 0-5 with a 7.33 ERA in his last five games. Also, Bailey is 2-0 in three career starts against Cleveland but note the 17 walks in his 14.1 innings and note that he’s compiled a 6.91 ERA in his career against the Indians. In his only career start at Progressive Field, Bailey walked 7 in 5 innings of work and he’s not a guy that can be trusted in this spot in our opinion. He’s only had success in one start in his career Interleague appearances. In the other five starts he’s allowed 21 earned runs in 22.2 innings of work! Look for more of the same here and also note that these two bullpens have two of the highest ERA’s among all 30 MLB teams. Play OVER the total in Cleveland as an *8* Regular Play selection.
Steven Budin
The Greek Syndicate has a 25 Dime play on Phoenix in today's contest at home againet Los Angeles. As this play is releasehd at 5:30 AM Eastern, the Suns are -2 to -2 1/2 points in Las Vegas and offslore in the game. In either case, go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point on Phoenix as insurance.
(note: ML is -130, so there is value in the ML at -130 versus -1.5 at -120; Greek syndicate has lost 2 in a row after winning 9 in a row and are 11-3 in the NBA this season
FoxSheets
Super Situations
LAA at STL
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season
92-34 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.0% | 41.5 units )
15-10 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.5 units )
Situational Power Trends
TOR at ARI
TORONTO is 12-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in Road games after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TORONTO (6.9) , OPPONENT (4.1)
Ben Burns
10* KC
10* Lakers Under TOY
9* Suns
9* Reds Under
9* Jays
Chris Jordan
1000* Lakers
MTi SPORTS
4'* LAL/PHX UNDER 219.5